Topic: Results Comparison Thread: 2013-4

[JP-65]

Last 10 PPG trends:

Currently trending below the CL spot cut line

[JP-65]

Last 6 PPG Trends:

Similar story, slipped below CL cut line

[JP-65]

For & Against Last 5 average:

Scoring more, but leaking more as well

[JP-65]

Here's the straight accumulating average for For & Against:

We started last season leaking goals, then got into a steady state.....this season, we started tight at the back and are now at last seasons running rate.

We started last season poorly in front of the net, but steadily improved as the season went on....this has continued this season, very impressive scoring rate.

I've said before that scoring goals wins you the league, and letting them in gets you relegated.....if we can tighten up a little at the back we'll be in the hunt for a top spot at the end of season.

[Brian Blessed]

Thanks JP.

[JP-65]

Thanks JP.

Better late than never eh?

[Brian Blessed]

Better late than never eh?

You're on a verbal

[Anthony]

Worth repeating this little gem...

I remember someone (possibly PoP) posted at the start of the season that logically Moyes will finish somewhere between Everton and Utd's points totals from last season.

After 15 games last season:
Man Utd - 36pts +16GD
Everton - 23pts +6D

After 15 games this season:
Man Utd - 22pts +3GD

Moyes doing his best to prove his critics wrong 

[BazC]

Worth repeating this little gem...
I remember someone (possibly PoP) posted at the start of the season that logically Moyes will finish somewhere between Everton and Utd's points totals from last season.

After 15 games last season:
Man Utd - 36pts +16GD
Everton - 23pts +6D

After 15 games this season:
Man Utd - 22pts +3GD

Moyes doing his best to prove his critics wrong 

They're in trouble. They're out of the title race. Even if it's a season where the winner gets close to 80 points rather than 90, they're out of it. If they win the league from here, it'll be a miracle, because it would involve them pretty much winning every game they have left. 1 or 2 more losses and it's a certainty in my opinion.

They're actually touch and go for the CL places. Top 4 has recently been competed between teams who get around 2pts a game average. At the moment, Spurs and ourselves are on that average. The Mancs have been at less than 1.5pts per game this season. Which means to get to the 75 points mark (which is what you'd expect these 2pts per game average teams to get) they actually need to complete the season with 2.3pts per game average. That's the average that a team achieves when they win the league with 90 points.

For them to even get top 4, it looks like they're going to need to show the title winning form of strong winners for the rest of this season. And that's a big improvement required from the current rate of points.

In short, they're fucked. If we maintain what we're doing, we're going to get to the 75pt mark, and that should get us in the top 4 - it basically comes down to us and Spurs I think.

[Mr_Shane]

Don't think Man Utd will make the CL either. 5 losses before the season is only at its halfway point and that does not include the draws. They got to replicate Arsenal's second half of last season, and I really do not think they have it in them to be able to run the gauntlet by playing every team in the league once without losing again, let alone the points they will drop to draws

[Nonex]

They're in trouble. They're out of the title race. Even if it's a season where the winner gets close to 80 points rather than 90, they're out of it. If they win the league from here, it'll be a miracle, because it would involve them pretty much winning every game they have left. 1 or 2 more losses and it's a certainty in my opinion.

They're actually touch and go for the CL places. Top 4 has recently been competed between teams who get around 2pts a game average. At the moment, Spurs and ourselves are on that average. The Mancs have been at less than 1.5pts per game this season. Which means to get to the 75 points mark (which is what you'd expect these 2pts per game average teams to get) they actually need to complete the season with 2.3pts per game average. That's the average that a team achieves when they win the league with 90 points.

For them to even get top 4, it looks like they're going to need to show the title winning form of strong winners for the rest of this season. And that's a big improvement required from the current rate of points.

In short, they're fucked. If we maintain what we're doing, we're going to get to the 75pt mark, and that should get us in the top 4 - it basically comes down to us and Spurs I think.

That's why its so important we don't lose at the lane. I know we should be always be aiming to win the game but ideally we would want to draw against the big teams away and win a home so we always stay ahead.

I know I will be nervous next week.

[kevin87]

That's why its so important we don't lose at the lane. I know we should be always be aiming to win the game but ideally we would want to draw against the big teams away and win a home so we always stay ahead.

I know I will be nervous next week.

absolutley,

I think rodgers will set up smart for this one and probably play for the draw.

If stevie is available all of him, Coutinho, allen, henderson and Lucas will start. with luis up top on his own.

What we cant do is go there and lose, but even with that 4-5-1 id back us to score at least 1.

Id expect the same setup for city and chelsea too.

If we can get a point from each of those games and win the others at home that should give us a really nice platform going into the new year.

[Sakho_lfc]

absolutley,

I think rodgers will set up smart for this one and probably play for the draw.

If stevie is available all of him, Coutinho, allen, henderson and Lucas will start. with luis up top on his own.

What we cant do is go there and lose, but even with that 4-5-1 id back us to score at least 1.

Id expect the same setup for city and chelsea too.

If we can get a point from each of those games and win the others at home that should give us a really nice platform going into the new year.

X2

agreed wholeheartedly, We simply can't lose to spurs. Play all Allen henderson and Lucas in midfield , (add gerrard there if he is fit). I probably won't start Sterling in this one as he perform better at home than away. Play coutinho behind Suarez and the rest of the team should aim to win the ball in midfield. A draw would be a good result in my opinion.

[goalrushatgoodison]

Just like every other measure of performance, the next four games, as they include three of our most difficult away games, will give us a much clearer picture of where we are. We are five pts up on the same opposition to date and these four games have a maximum gain of seven pts on the same comparison. If we lose any ground at all here, i.e.less than 5 pts from these games, it gives us a very difficult tack to reach the 75 pt mark.

Conversely if we could stay on our current two pts a game mark after these games i.e. 8 pts or more, we will be in a position to consolidate top four and start looking up the table at Arsenal.

[Liamski-la]

Just like every other measure of performance, the next four games, as they include three of our most difficult away games, will give us a much clearer picture of where we are. We are five pts up on the same opposition to date and these four games have a maximum gain of seven pts on the same comparison. If we lose any ground at all here, i.e.less than 5 pts from these games, it gives us a very difficult tack to reach the 75 pt mark.

Conversely if we could stay on our current two pts a game mark after these games i.e. 8 pts or more, we will be in a position to consolidate top four and start looking up the table at Arsenal.

Yup, absolutely. This is it now. Losing the Hull game lost us that little bit of Leeway we had.

I'll be disappointed if we don't take points from Spurs and Chelsea. They are both struggling. City is the one. I think they might go unbeaten at home this season. If we take anything from that, I'll be over the moon.

[JP-65]

Last season, we beat Wigan at home, lost to Spurs away, drew with Chelsea and City away....so 5 points from these 4 matches.

[goalrushatgoodison]

Last season, we beat Wigan at home, lost to Spurs away, drew with Chelsea and City away....so 5 points from these 4 matches.

Yep 5 out of 12 - so the maximum gain of 7 pts on the result comparison.

[JP-65]

Updated equivalent match & time comps

[JP-65]

The last 5 season PPG trends updated, I'll do the rest tomorrow.

[DyingAtheist]

So the PPG has us in the CL spots (assuming we maintain) but on current form the other two (equivalent match, time) don't?

[BassTunedToRed]

I noticed that our next ten league games only yielded 9 points last season.

So assuming we can beat Cardiff, Hull and Villa at home, which seems reasonable on a current form, then we have a free swing at the 3 tough aways, plus Stoke and WBA away, with Everton and Arsenal at home to improve our tally further.

[JP-65]

I noticed that our next ten league games only yielded 9 points last season.

So assuming we can beat Cardiff, Hull and Villa at home, which seems reasonable on a current form, then we have a free swing at the 3 tough aways, plus Stoke and WBA away, with Everton and Arsenal at home to improve our tally further.

17 points for the next 10 on time basis

[JP-65]

The form comparisons:

[mikey_LFC]

Just devised a results comparison based on the current time and match equivalents.

The basic idea is to give both match and time equivalents equal weighting and taking an average of them. i.e Liverpool's current average would be 8 as our match is 5 and time is 11. This average is then divided by the number of games passed in the season and multiplied by 38 and added to their total points from last year. This will provide a picture of how the match and time equivalents will play out over a season given the current trends.

At the moment this is as follows:

Team                            Points
Arsenal                         86.93
Liverpool                      81.27
Man City                        78.00
Chelsea                         76.21
Tottenham                    75.80
Everton                         74.40
Newcastle                      66.33
Southampton                 61.27
Aston Villa                      57.47
Man Utd                          51.00
Norwich                           50.33
Stoke                              49.6
West Ham                      46.13
Swansea                       46.00
West Brom                     42.67
Fulham                            40.47
Hull                                  38.13
Cardiff                             30.13
Crystal Palace                  21.20
Sunderland                      15.60

[JP-65]

Home & Away tables

EDIT: names fixed

[RooiBefok]

Home & Away tables

Your Tables are still reflecting Reading, QPR and Wigan...

[JP-65]

Your Tables are still reflecting Reading, QPR and Wigan...

Thanks, data is good, forgot to change the names

[Gnurglan]

17 points for the next 10 on time basis

The next month will be very important then. It's a chance to improve on last season.

Like that we are beating the lesser sides. Hull is the exception, but we are good at getting the points we should get. Hope we can continue that way.


One thing, about Utd. Don't count them out. I know it doesn't seem likely that they'll come back and challenge for the title (or the CL spots). But don't count them out. I bet they could open the wallet and buy a couple of players in January. That could change a lot. But, it's also the same group of players that won the title last year, so the whole thing for them is about mentality. They're losing that aura of invincibility, but they haven't lost it yet.

[BazC]

Tables are interesting, we really need to improve on our Away form, and that needs to come from Rodgers sorting our midfield out in games we're on the back foot. If that can happen, and we stop conceding so many goals in those games, we could go for the title here.

Although interestingly, seeing as a significant chunk of our goals conceded (home or away) come from set pieces, if Rodgers helps cut those down, we could do the same thing. The key is to stop conceding 2 goals or more - we do it far too often I think, and it leaves our strikers having to do too much sometimes.

If we can hang on until January, and bring in a top class CM, I think we can go for it.

[JP-65]

Tables are interesting, we really need to improve on our Away form, and that needs to come from Rodgers sorting our midfield out in games we're on the back foot. If that can happen, and we stop conceding so many goals in those games, we could go for the title here.

Although interestingly, seeing as a significant chunk of our goals conceded (home or away) come from set pieces, if Rodgers helps cut those down, we could do the same thing. The key is to stop conceding 2 goals or more - we do it far too often I think, and it leaves our strikers having to do too much sometimes.

If we can hang on until January, and bring in a top class CM, I think we can go for it.

We're competitive with the best on goals scored away, it's the amount we've let in that's out of whack with the best, in fact, our record here is amongst the worst in the league right now.

[BazC]

We're competitive with the best on goals scored away, it's the amount we've let in that's out of whack with the best, in fact, our record here is amongst the worst in the league right now.

Yeah it's a concern - it's why I'm not gloomy about Gerrard being out, because the big games we have coming up will all see our team on the back foot, and we've just not been that good at defending in those situations. Even Hull beat us easily at their place.

[exiledinyorkshire]

They're in trouble. They're out of the title race. Even if it's a season where the winner gets close to 80 points rather than 90, they're out of it. If they win the league from here, it'll be a miracle, because it would involve them pretty much winning every game they have left. 1 or 2 more losses and it's a certainty in my opinion.

They're actually touch and go for the CL places. Top 4 has recently been competed between teams who get around 2pts a game average. At the moment, Spurs and ourselves are on that average. The Mancs have been at less than 1.5pts per game this season. Which means to get to the 75 points mark (which is what you'd expect these 2pts per game average teams to get) they actually need to complete the season with 2.3pts per game average. That's the average that a team achieves when they win the league with 90 points.

For them to even get top 4, it looks like they're going to need to show the title winning form of strong winners for the rest of this season. And that's a big improvement required from the current rate of points.

In short, they're fucked. If we maintain what we're doing, we're going to get to the 75pt mark, and that should get us in the top 4 - it basically comes down to us and Spurs I think.

my only worry is that they bring back whisky nose after xmas and he does exactly that, gets them into title winning form and snatches a CL place.

because I think Moyes is getting off lightly at the moment, everybody has bought into this myth that the UTD squad is thread bear. that squad won the fucking league at a canter last year. He is a poor manager it would seem, and the double irony is that he was always praised for his heroic managing of poor little old Everton, and guess what they are markedly better now he has gone.

poor old moysey.

Ha!

[willss]

Anyone know the table for the last 38 games? Surely that presents a rolling average with a good sized sample.

[Liamski-la]

Anyone know the table for the last 38 games? Surely that presents a rolling average with a good sized sample.

We were averaging over 2 points per game since xmas. That's not dropped that much so I'd guess we are still going at circa 2 points/game.

[houkura]

Anyone know the table for the last 38 games? Surely that presents a rolling average with a good sized sample.

Not sure...but I read today that we have scored more goals per game than in any previous season over the last 38 games.

[ryatnalkar]

The time comparison is the last 38 games table. If I am reading it correct we have 72 points from the last 38 games and are 6th in the table. With 73,74 and 75 being the totals of 5th, 4th and 3rd place sides

[JP-65]

The time comparison is the last 38 games table. If I am reading it correct we have 72 points from the last 38 games and are 6th in the table. With 73,74 and 75 being the totals of 5th, 4th and 3rd place sides

On the money!

[willss]

Ok thanks. I'd interpreted  it slightly different from that.

Bit disappointed as I thought we were doing better than that. I suppose the key is to continue on the 2 ppg average.

[PhaseOfPlay]

The next month will be very important then. It's a chance to improve on last season.

Like that we are beating the lesser sides. Hull is the exception, but we are good at getting the points we should get. Hope we can continue that way.


One thing, about Utd. Don't count them out. I know it doesn't seem likely that they'll come back and challenge for the title (or the CL spots). But don't count them out. I bet they could open the wallet and buy a couple of players in January. That could change a lot. But, it's also the same group of players that won the title last year, so the whole thing for them is about mentality. They're losing that aura of invincibility, but they haven't lost it yet.

They're out of the title race. They could buy Messi and Bale. They won't win the amount of games they need to win the title.

They're not out of the top four race, though, of course. But do you see Moyes suddenly becoming a tactically astute attacking manager?

[mikey_LFC]

On the money!

I thought the time comparison is the difference over the first 15 games this season compared to last seasons first 15 games.

Don't worry just figured out, they are exactly the same thing.