While I applaud the shipping out of so many unwanted players and the vitality it gives to the club - that must have come at a cost - the transfer fee's written off, the contracts bought out - you have to suspect that would amount to well over 10 mil. A legacy of the previous regime. The only real outstanding issue being the 18 mil we still owe in wages to Joe Cole. The same Cole deal that was lorded last summer and had the board in a meltdown of joy, where anybody suggesting it might not be that great was shot down in flames. 12 months later...
If Henderson doesn't fulfill his potential, if Coates bombs, if Adam gives the ball away too often and Doni can't step up, if Downing gets injured and Enrique fails to handle the pressure, if Carroll fails to find his form and Suarez burns himself out - and we finish 6th - how will we view fsg in 12 months time?
can the decisions they've made be judged objectively now? or can they only really be judged on the evidence of how they've performed in which case they will always be a hostage to fortune.
For the record I think they've bought safely, we haven't taken any great risks on potential but have gone for the most part with players with good track records (Downing, Adam, Enrique, Bellamy, even Henderson has a season plus) all tried and tested in the Prem - the only real gamble is Coates. I like what they've done. I think it gives Kenny the chance to build a side bigger than the sum of its parts - that compliment each others abilities because they recognise their own weaknesses - a team rather than a collection of superstars but the risk is we have a good team with good players rather than a great team.
We've unloaded players who contributed little last year - the sheer volume is impressive, can't say I particularly disagree with any of the personnel which have left, including Raul and Aquilani (neither wanted to be here) but I dont think we've made anything like the savings being talked about - I'd think 5 mil a year max.
The new structure of the squad is intriguing - it looks as though we've genuinely structured for the future allowing young players a place in the squad and a real chance of playing and progressing into the first team - again whilst I applaud that - its risky - not all the young players will develop - they wont all be up to the job - they'll have poor spells, defenders will cost us goals, strikers will miss chances - so at the same time as we applaud the decision we have to be prepared to live with the consequences - I'm not sure that will be the case when things go wrong - easy to get behind the squad when we haven't lost a game - not so simple if City turn us over three nil - if its the correct decision to give the kids a chance now - its still the case in 9 months regardless of how things pan out.
Having said that I still expect the likes of Eccleston, Amoo, and Mendy to go out on loan -Wilson too maybe if he's 5th choice - the fact it wasn't to teh prem though suggests those lads futures dont rest at LFC - I'd also hope the best of the rest get some first team experience somewhere - Wisdom, Coady, Adorjan just to see if they can step up again. Sterling I think requires a personal plan the lads as precocious as Fowler, Owen and Gerrard ever where and it'll be a test of our new set up to see how they manage him.
Finally I think we've looked after our own business very well but its also clear we are not playing to the same rules as City and Chelsea - they have made no attempt at staying inside the rules except their very obvious accountancy tricks - if those go unchecked then however clever our management are they'll be fighting with one hand tied behind their back - we'll hit the same type of ceiling as mid table clubs there being only so much which can be achieved.
1. Yes, the savings from released / loaned out players would not be as much as reported. We are bound to take a hit to clear the house.
2. As you rightly pointed out about our signings this summer – solid and balance. This jumps out most to me from the squad list now.
If all signings fail as hypothesised, then Commolli should be left to hang and quartered. The ball will be in FSG’s court to ratify such sumptuous level of incompetency – it is our club but their investment. And Kenny cannot be absolved of all the blame: he definitely (and rightly) have had input and how players fare depend as much on coaching and organization.
However, I do think it’s not too early to have some quiet confidence on the new signings. Not a lot of spectacular and flash - just a team to do a job. The 1st 11 probably is not on par with the 2008-09 team (especially with Gerrard a few years older and more injuries) but the squad depth is better. Would be an interesting comparison at the end of the season. Next summer's transfer strategy would also be interesting if we achieve what we set out to achieve -- at least a 4th in the league.
3. If we embrace the concept of youth – producing as many players as we could, which everyone seems to be embracing, then this is the element of risk which we have to balance with signings for the first team. A consistent football philosophy throughout the club is also important, not the least to help carry young players into the first team. One way we all know though, the Barca model is in no way a cheap one.
4. Playing staff budget: what you are highlighting is can we catch up without further injection of equity? Two important issues regarding this:
- revenue generating capability – we do not need to be no.1 in terms of $$ power but we definitely need to bridge the gap in match day revenue somehow. If we don’t, then we’ll have to find it somewhere else - not easy.
- FFP: are we witnessing a new era or is it just a mirage? And for all the early naysayers of sustainability of Roman Abramnovich’s ownership (including, alas, meself), Chelsea is still there and about.
How ingenious can FSG tackle this, especially if FFP turns out to be a joke? Can we somehow move closer to ManU? Have FSG shown all its hand yet? As you rightly pointed out, these questions remain to be answered and will determine whether we will be competitive again. If FSG fails, then yes, we will be seeing a league 5-6 position and a minor trophy once in a while future for us, unless we get our own sugar daddy or the G14, which we are still part of, gets its own super-league (is it too far-fetched?)
What I do like so far is the purposeful, structured, no fuss way of doing biz of FSG. This transfer window demonstrated this -- that they have a strategy and a plan and are good enough to carrying it out. I’m willing to give their approach a shot. I hope we fans, and most of football, are able to give it a shot.