Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Zeb]

May actually needs Cooper's bill to go through, doesn't she? Even if her 'deal' goes through on the 12th, she needs at least a 3 month extension to bash legislation through Parliament. As May's 'deal' is voted for on the 12th then, should it be passed, Cooper's bill kicks in and Parliament will insist that we need more time to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit as the legislation isn't done. Should May's 'deal' fail in the meaningful vote then Parliament will suggest an extension on the 13th, and the EU could counteroffer for Parliament to consider and vote on. EU offer 21 months as the best remedy then Brexit isn't til 2021. But wait there's more... We're not going to have negotiated the final relationship in 2 years. And if we're trying to match us leaving with the EU budget cycle then needing more time after that would take us to 2028... And all the time not actually out of the EU and able to revoke Article 50 as businesses jump and investment dries up with the uncertainty.

Shambles.

[TepidT2O]

The guardian are reporting that EU scourges are mulling a two year extension to article 50.

I’m not sure that this will solve a single thing.

[24/7]

The guardian are reporting that EU scourges are mulling a two year extension to article 50.

I’m not sure that this will solve a single thing.

Speaking as an ex-pat, I'm absolutely BEGGING for ANY extension right now.....

[west_london_red]

The guardian are reporting that EU scourges are mulling a two year extension to article 50.

I’m not sure that this will solve a single thing.

Enough time for an election or another referendum though?

[Dr. Beaker]

Fuck. Will we have to put up with those square French bananas for another two years!

[TepidT2O]

Speaking as an ex-pat, I'm absolutely BEGGING for ANY extension right now.....

have you tried viagra?

[west_london_red]

Speaking as an ex-pat, I'm absolutely BEGGING for ANY extension right now.....

You mean British Immigrant

[Dr. Beaker]

have you tried viagra?

He can just come back here if he wants to be hard up.

[Sangria]

He can just come back here if he wants to be hard up.

He needs to know if there will be any European elections.

[drmick]

He needs to know if there will be any European elections.

Elections/erections- L and R are the same letter in Japanese.

[Red Raw]

The lack of criticism of May from the press is absolutely astonishing. Utter incompetence, the immovable object combined with the irresistible farce.

In general, yes, but there is always Matthew Parris who appears to be trying to make up for the rest of them.  He prettty much skewered her on Friday - 'the Death Star of modern British Politics'.



via https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1099417786554769408

[Ghost Town]

Is it possibe to post/link that full Matthew Parris article for those of us unable to breach the paywall? Spoilered, maybe?

I've always liked his turn of phrase, and that strange breathless integrity he tends to manifest

[Ghost Town]

So Britain would effectively be in the EU until 2023 or how does this extension work? It doesn't really make sense to me to extend the uncertainty for another 21 months when there's no different outcome in the horizon. As someone from Austria I'd say just get it over with even if that means a no deal on the 29th of March... I'd feel sorry for the people in the UK who voted remain, but this nonsense has to end now...

Really? You think sticking to a date in the diary is more important than, you know, saving people and saving the country? Easy for you to say from Vienna; this means nothing to you...

[Alan_X]

Really? You think sticking to a date in the diary is more important than, you know, saving people and saving the country? Easy for you to say from Vienna; this means nothing to you...

Ba Dum Tish...

[Alan_X]

Bizarre from Barry Gardiner. The Labour headline is all about May running down the clock to force a choice between her deal (The Withdrawal Agreement with the EU) or No Deal but the 'alternative' he talks about is the Political Declaration not a different WA.

He's either extremely dim and doesn't understand the words he's saying or is deliberately muddying the waters.

So the EU may or may not be open to a Labour version of the Political  Declaration and the future discussions about teh relationship but if that doesn't change the WA what is the relevance of bringing it up?

The only conclusion I can draw from that is that Labour know that it's Mays Deal or No Deal and are... err... deliberately running down the clock while posturing about the Political Declaration.

https://twitter.com/BarryGardiner/status/1099637832392552450

[Zeb]

Is it possibe to post/link that full Matthew Paris article for those of us unable to breach the paywall? Spoilered, maybe?

I've always liked his turn of phrase, and that strange breathless integrity he tends to manifest

Times

Spoiler

For the moment, I stay. No reason you should care, but here’s the story of the Conservative Party and me. I joined the Tories 50 years ago this September. Not CUCA (Cambridge University Conservative Association) which was all public-school boys, soft focus, sharp elbows and dry sherry. Arriving from Africa I found the British class system weird and repellent, and still do; so I joined something called PEST (Pressure for Economic and Social Toryism), a sort of centre-left Conservative ginger group led by a chap in a white polo-neck sweater.

He came and went. Tory leaders and prime ministers came and went. I was impressed by some, depressed by others. In and out of government the party swung somewhat left, somewhat right, then somewhat left again; and from the sidelines I variously cheered, ground my teeth or just hung on.

And now? I’m grinding my teeth and hanging on. I do so out of a bit of cowardice, a bit of scepticism and a bit of hope. Cowardice because I honestly don’t think I’d be joining the Tories today if I were 19. Hope because there is a good case for a young person to join and all is not lost if enough sane men and women stay and fight. Scepticism because it remains to be seen whether The Independent Group (TIG) of despairing former Labour and former Tory MPs constitutes more than a howl of pain and protest. I’m not sure that once antisemitism is routed from Labour and Brexit settled one way or the other, the political instincts of TIG MPs will add up to a party. Or should.

Why the “or should”? Because the case has yet to be made that what we want from a realignment of British politics is one sane party in the middle flanked by two mad ones of left and right. The Tory breakaways have been quoting with approval Sir John Major’s speech in Glasgow on Tuesday, in which he attacked the rise of extremism in both main parties, and ripped into the prime minister’s kidnap by the Brexit hardline European Research Group. He’s right, but he also said this: “When I refer to ‘the Centre’, I don’t mean some amorphous new party of ‘moderates’ and ‘centrists’ [for even if it formed a government] ... what would unfold when it fell out of favour? ... Our electorate needs a choice between parties that are demonstrably rational, realistic — and sane.” So though I admire beyond measure what the 11 (as I write) have done, I still can’t guess where the logs are going next.

In her outstanding interview with my Times colleague Matt Chorley (if you haven’t heard the Red Box podcast already, you really must) Anna Soubry berates moderate colleagues who do as I am doing – praise her, urge her on, then shrink back, reluctant to follow.

So we do — but maybe because we have not yet despaired. Or not quite. In the Labour Party the biggest problem, though almost intractable, is simpler, and even some of Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing colleagues know it. Their leader is a politician of low intellectual calibre which, alloyed with rigid and obstinately held ideological beliefs, renders him stupefied, or stupid, or both.

As to the Conservative Party, I am beginning to change my view of the big problem. I’ve always said it was the referendum result; and joked that although Theresa May obviously isn’t any good, the Archangel Gabriel could not have salvaged much improvement on the awful deal she’s hawking to her scared and exhausted Tory troops.

But as the months have ground on I’ve been at first shocked but finally persuaded that not Brexit alone, but also she personally, is the problem.

Time and again I’ve protested that she may not be the answer but she didn’t create this mess: she’s just an unimaginative, unremarkable, perhaps wooden but dogged politician, overly cautious and rather shy. Time and again my informants — MPs, former MPs, civil servants, special advisers — tell me, eyes flashing, that I’ve got it wrong and the public have it wrong, and she’s so much worse than that. She’s not normal. She’s extraordinary. Extraordinarily uncommunicative; extraordinarily rude in the way she blanks people, ideas and arguments. To my surprise there is no difference between the pictures of her that Remainers and Brexiteers paint.

Theresa May, they tell me (in a couple of cases actually shouting) is the Death Star of modern British politics. She’s the theory of anti-matter, made flesh. She’s a political black hole because nothing, not even light, can escape. Ideas, beliefs, suggestions, objections, inquiries, proposals, projects, loyalties, affections, trust, whole careers, real men and women, are sucked into the awful void that is Downing Street — and nothing ever comes out: no answers, only a blank so blank that it screams. Reputations (they lament) are staked on her, and lost. Warnings are delivered to her, and ignored. Plans are run by her, unacknowledged. Messages are sent to her, unanswered. She has become the unperson of Downing Street: the living embodiment of the closed door.

And I am, finally, persuaded. Persuaded that Theresa May has not simply failed to unite two wings of my party, but that her premiership has driven them apart, into anger and despair; helped to turn a disagreement into a schism. Before healing becomes possible (one told me) she, and all who wait upon her and have surrounded her, must be hounded out of the party’s cockpit, and every trace of the era of her leadership expunged. Another, careless of the proprieties, told me the political massacre should be on a Rwandan scale. For the first time I understood the passion, if not the logic, behind the self-defeating challenge to her leadership the Brexiteers mounted last December.

I do not exaggerate the violence of the imagery into which her Tory critics fly at the very mention of her name. And perhaps because I’ve been so reluctant to believe this picture, you will now believe my report.

We may have six months left to save the party, not least from its present leader. It is still — just — possible the Tories could become again a party where cards like Jacob Rees-Mogg and cads like Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson could stay but to which brave Anna Soubry, Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston could return. If these three and more can frighten Conservatism into re-imagining the party as it was when I joined in 1969, then I wish the expeditionaries all luck — and a safe return. If not, millions like me will be joining them.

[close]

[Red Raw]

Is it possibe to post/link that full Matthew Paris article for those of us unable to breach the paywall? Spoilered, maybe?

I've always liked his turn of phrase, and that strange breathless integrity he tends to manifest

You can 'register' to access 2 free articles a week (I use a fake/temporary email e.g. sharklasers.com)

I've used my allocation but there are usually decent photos of tastier Parris articles on twitter.  This one is a bit blurry but might work https://twitter.com/emcmillanscott/status/1099588680291880960?p=v

edit Zeb's there!

[Gili Gulu]

Fuck. Will we have to put up with those square French bananas for another two years!

Frottage will be secretly delighted though. 2 more years of the press hanging on to his every stupid word, plus all the day trading on the pound, due to all the uncertainty he'll do his best to create.

[24/7]

You mean British Immigrant

- I just tell people I'm from Liverpool and that Brexit means Brexit so I exited Britain sharpish....

have you tried viagra?

- too forrin sounding that, so I tried bonjela instead - worked a treat

[No666]

Two more years for more young people to become eligible to vote and for the UKIPers to die out. No Brexiter wants an extension because they know their momentum will trickle away.

[Zeb]

Two more years for more young people to become eligible to vote and for the UKIPers to die out. No Brexiter wants an extension because they know their momentum will trickle away.

Seems to me there's increasing incentive for them to 'compromise' and agree to a short extension knowing that once that's over it's heads they win, tails everyone else loses. Either there isn't an agreement passed through Parliament and they get their 'no deal' outcome, or there is one (which will be exactly the same as on offer now bar fudging the political declaration) and they replace May and they crack on regardless of what the political declaration actually says.

There's a short extension being proposed from the Tory backbenches apparently, by 'moderates' no less, so that could be the vehicle to excuse themselves from not looking beyond the cliffedge.



(via Times' Sam Coates)

[rob1966]

Two more years for more young people to become eligible to vote and for the UKIPers to die out. No Brexiter wants an extension because they know their momentum will trickle away.

That's what I was thinking, the longer this goes on the more Remain gains.

[Dr. Beaker]

Bernard Jenkin:  Most countries aren't in Europe and they're all doing OK.

Adam Boulton:  Most countries aren't in Europe.


This seemed to stump Jenkin who eventually responded with Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson noises.

[No666]

Seems to me there's increasing incentive for them to 'compromise' and agree to a short extension knowing that once that's over it's heads they win, tails everyone else loses. Either there isn't an agreement passed through Parliament and they get their 'no deal' outcome, or there is one (which will be exactly the same as on offer now bar fudging the political declaration) and they replace May and they crack on regardless of what the political declaration actually says.

There's a short extension being proposed from the Tory backbenches apparently, by 'moderates' no less, so that could be the vehicle to excuse themselves from not looking beyond the cliffedge.



(via Times' Sam Coates)

Maybe a lot depends on whether TIG gains more members and influence. How many would leave if they replace May with an ERG headbanger?

[Ghost Town]

Times

Spoiler

[close]

Thankyou Zeb.

A vital, if depressing, read. She is a rotten animus at the centre of an imploding black hole, while everyone around her looks on, giggling nervously, or fiddling (these days with their phones and Facebooks) while home burns.

Even though the message is stark and storm clouds are gathering, I can't help but admire the penmanship.

You can 'register' to access 2 free articles a week (I use a fake/temporary email e.g. sharklasers.com)

I've used my allocation but there are usually decent photos of tastier Parris articles on twitter.  This one is a bit blurry but might work https://twitter.com/emcmillanscott/status/1099588680291880960?p=v

edit Zeb's there!

And thankyou Red Raw for this tip, which I shall be utilising whenever I can

[stoa]

Really? You think sticking to a date in the diary is more important than, you know, saving people and saving the country? Easy for you to say from Vienna; this means nothing to you...

It's not just about "sticking to a date in the diary" though, is it. It's about putting an end to the uncertainty and being able to fully focus on other issues again. I get that a no-deal Brexit (or any other Brexit) will put the UK in a huge mess, but I would also argue, that neither the EU nor the UK-government would want people to die from medicine shortages. They will find a solution for that issue. And I also don't think people will die, because they cannot get food. There will maybe be issues with the supply of fresh fruit or vegetables and some other products that cannot be stored or transported for days, but there will be other food available. If the UK needed time for a general election or a second referendum, then yeah, I'd be for an extension. However, just to have another 21 months of people arguing whether there needs to be a backstop, whether a backstop with a time-limit or the possibility to unilaterally cancel it is actually a backstop, whether you want a Norway+ or Canada style deal or no deal or no Brexit at all? We don't need an extension for that.

There's a European election in three months time, but very few people are talking about that because of Brexit. The EU has other issues to discuss, but they rarely do because of Brexit. The UK are holding the EU hostage with all that Brexit-malarky. The mess is not the EU's fault. They've done the best they can to get Britain a deal that works and that makes sure there's a soft transition. Again, I fully understand that no deal would be terrible for the UK, but at the end of the day, there are 27 other countries in the EU and in one way or another they are all suffering from this uncertainty. That's why I think this whole fuck-up should end in March one way or another.

[redbyrdz]

...and this is why an extension is unlikely.



Especially a two-month extension or anything short. Strangely a two-year extension seems more likely, because it would allow the EU to focus on other things now.

[Zeb]

Take in the subtext of what Tusk is saying.

Donald Tusk says he discussed with Theresa May the legal implications of possible extension to Article 50. "An extension would be a rational decision but Theresa May believes she can avoid this scenario."

(via Tony Connelly)

edit:

Dutch PM tells @bbcnews - "we are sleep walking into no deal scenario. It's unacceptable and your best friends have to warn you. Wake up . This is real. come to a conclusion and close the deal."

 On delaying Brexit date? Rutte said  'It's up to UK. If UK ask for delay, the EU will ask what do you want with it? We don't want to go round in circles for the next couple of months. What will be achieved by it?'

(via Laura Kuenssberg)

[Red Beret]

They're giving us every chance under the sun to avoid this, practically pleading with us to come to our senses. And we're just giggling like a stoner.

[PaulF]

Am I making this up, but hasn't it already been established that there can be no change to the deadline, except for maybe another referendum?

[Zeb]

Am I making this up, but hasn't it already been established that there can be no change to the deadline, except for maybe another referendum?

Needs to be a good reason to do it. Could be that we've agreed a deal and then need time to legislate for it, or for a referendum or an election, or to tinker with the political declaration so it aims towards a different future relationship which Parliament will agree to pass.

[stara]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/vhDvYiitV6wk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/vhDvYiitV6wk</a>

Brexit sounds like cat food drom Lidl 

[oldfordie]

Am I making this up, but hasn't it already been established that there can be no change to the deadline, except for maybe another referendum?

Yeah they have been saying no extension without good reason, they will extend for a referendum or GE but they won't extend to avoid chaos. I think none of us knew how this would play out, the EU can see both our parties are not acting in the countries best interests, they can see the political climate changing with the breakaway TIG they can see the parties getting torn apart by the public. they know the people of this country don't want Brexit for the same reason the EU don't want it.
Our politicians are forcing Brexit on the country against the public's wishes.
 the political climate has changed in this country, our politicians just refuse to accept it.

[Riquende]

Why are we saying TIG and not calling them the Tiggers?

[oldfordie]

Why are we saying TIG and not calling them the Tiggers?

You think the name Tiggers is something they would like to be called?

[filopastry]

I think this parliament will struggle to pass anything Brexit related beyond maybe kicking the can down the road, but as others have said, while I would welcome that it won't actually bring us much closer to agreeing anything, you will still have the same situation in Parliament to agree with.

[Alan_X]

It's not just about "sticking to a date in the diary" though, is it. It's about putting an end to the uncertainty and being able to fully focus on other issues again. I get that a no-deal Brexit (or any other Brexit) will put the UK in a huge mess, but I would also argue, that neither the EU nor the UK-government would want people to die from medicine shortages. They will find a solution for that issue. And I also don't think people will die, because they cannot get food. There will maybe be issues with the supply of fresh fruit or vegetables and some other products that cannot be stored or transported for days, but there will be other food available. If the UK needed time for a general election or a second referendum, then yeah, I'd be for an extension. However, just to have another 21 months of people arguing whether there needs to be a backstop, whether a backstop with a time-limit or the possibility to unilaterally cancel it is actually a backstop, whether you want a Norway+ or Canada style deal or no deal or no Brexit at all? We don't need an extension for that.

There's a European election in three months time, but very few people are talking about that because of Brexit. The EU has other issues to discuss, but they rarely do because of Brexit. The UK are holding the EU hostage with all that Brexit-malarky. The mess is not the EU's fault. They've done the best they can to get Britain a deal that works and that makes sure there's a soft transition. Again, I fully understand that no deal would be terrible for the UK, but at the end of the day, there are 27 other countries in the EU and in one way or another they are all suffering from this uncertainty. That's why I think this whole fuck-up should end in March one way or another.

In what way will plunging the UK into chaos and disrupting large parts of the EU ‘end’ anything?

You say that no one would want people to go without food and medicine but that requires negotiations and deals. Nothing ‘stops’ unless the UK withdraws Article 50.

[oldfordie]

No deals nothing to worry about, we will get a deal to solve all these problems. read again and again and the penny might drop one day.

[filopastry]

It's not just about "sticking to a date in the diary" though, is it. It's about putting an end to the uncertainty and being able to fully focus on other issues again. I get that a no-deal Brexit (or any other Brexit) will put the UK in a huge mess, but I would also argue, that neither the EU nor the UK-government would want people to die from medicine shortages. They will find a solution for that issue. And I also don't think people will die, because they cannot get food. There will maybe be issues with the supply of fresh fruit or vegetables and some other products that cannot be stored or transported for days, but there will be other food available. If the UK needed time for a general election or a second referendum, then yeah, I'd be for an extension. However, just to have another 21 months of people arguing whether there needs to be a backstop, whether a backstop with a time-limit or the possibility to unilaterally cancel it is actually a backstop, whether you want a Norway+ or Canada style deal or no deal or no Brexit at all? We don't need an extension for that.

There's a European election in three months time, but very few people are talking about that because of Brexit. The EU has other issues to discuss, but they rarely do because of Brexit. The UK are holding the EU hostage with all that Brexit-malarky. The mess is not the EU's fault. They've done the best they can to get Britain a deal that works and that makes sure there's a soft transition. Again, I fully understand that no deal would be terrible for the UK, but at the end of the day, there are 27 other countries in the EU and in one way or another they are all suffering from this uncertainty. That's why I think this whole fuck-up should end in March one way or another.

From anything I have heard from friends in Europe, Brexit is rarely mentioned on a national political level.

I suspect Brexit isn't taking up as much time in European circles as people might think, what can the EU do at the moment anyway, waiting for the UK to stop asking for unicorns isn't going to take up a whole lot of negotiating time.

Economically the EU will no doubt want a deal but it seems highly likely that will be at the price of conceding in a meaningful way to the UK's demands, no doubt they will be willing to putting some aspirational language into the political document, but they have been pretty steadfast in not wanting to open the WA itself.

The only way the WA is likely to be reopened is if the UK is willing to compromise on some of our redlines, for now we are just asking for a lot more while offering nothing in return

[Ray K]

Guardian -
According to Joe Murphy and Nicholas Cecil in the latest Evening Standard splash, Theresa May will promise MPs that they will get the chance to vote for an article 50 extension if the Commons does not pass a Brexit deal by 12 March. They report:

The prime minister is set to bow to cabinet rebels by promising a new Commons vote on delaying Brexit.

Downing Street is privately offering to make time for a vote in a fortnight allowing for a two-month delay beyond March 29 in return for them calling off a rebellion on Wednesday.

A postponement of Britain’s withdrawal would be a humiliating climbdown for Theresa May, whose spokesman continued to insist this morning that it was “not something she wants to do”. But a top cabinet minister warned that it was not “acceptable” to risk crashing out.

This effectively amounts to Downing Street accepting the Simon Hart amendment. (See 9.12am.)

Why would Number 10 agree to this, when May clearly believes that extending article 50 on its own would not solve her Brexit dilemma? (See 1.57pm.) Well, because if she did not, there would be a very strong chance of MPs passing the Yvette Cooper amendment on Wednesday. And if government ministers voted for it, as many have suggested they would, May would either have to sack them en masse, or accept that she had lost control of her government.

If the Standard is right (and it normally is), and May does make this offer, the majority for the Cooper amendment would probably evaporate. In fact, since Cooper would have achieved much of what she wanted, the amendment could even end up getting pulled.

Tory Brexiters are unhappy about any talk of extending article 50. But they are much more alarmed by Cooper than by Hart, because Cooper would enable MPs to pass legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit that could become a Trojan horse for a lengthy article 50 extension, or conceivably (because the bill could be amended) another referendum.