Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[PaleBlueDot]

That illustrates the issue with the definition of big chances. Any chance over .39 is classed as a big chance. That means any chance just over .39 is one and a half times more likely to be missed than scored. I think people think big chances are sitters that a striker somehow misses.

Yeah seen this comp before. A lot of those are more like half chances and it even includes the one vs Villa with Martinez getting a ridiculous touch on the cross to take it slightly off Nunez's head. Still, there are more than enough chances that he should be taking in there and it doesn't seem to include the more recent ones vs Sheffield, Palace and Everton. 

I disagree with the 'he's been unlucky' shouts. Looking through all that there are maybe 3 max that were unlucky. I think his finishing technique is poor and who knows if it's something he can improve next season. He can do the same again and score a few more just by luck through smashing it off the keeper and in for example but that wouldn't make him a more refined striker. He needs to change.

[markmywords]

That illustrates the issue with the definition of big chances. Any chance over .39 is classed as a big chance. That means any chance just over .39 is one and a half times more likely to be missed than scored. I think people think big chances are sitters that a striker somehow misses.

That cuts both ways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqTdUCjyMTg

The chance at 2.02 in against Burnley was considered only 0.28 according to understat, therefore technically not a big chance by your criteria. There are plenty of chances Nunez missed which weren't considered "big" but most people would have said was.  Part of the reason Nunez underperforms his xg more than any other player in PL, last time I checked

[PEG2K]

Given your passionate plea for people to 'use stats properly'
Why would you expect the 9 not to be "least in the team" in categories like 'progressive passes' and passes into the final third, carries into the final third etc etc? ..
He's the 9 .. he's highest up the pitch and touches the ball the least.

I have no idea what you think your measuring but comparing the player with the highest starting position to players in deeper positions is something you might like to adjust for
Why does Joe Gomez have so few shots compared to Mo Salah etc etc
Or just compare our 9/striker to other 9s/strikers.. too easy?

This matter was already explained in my post. It was a response to Al's claim that Nunez contributes to our general play just as much as the other forwards. He doesn't, as indicated by his rankings in those stats.

I didn't say I expect our no 9 to not be lowest in those stats, as are other 9s. Except for the false 9s (Firmino used to be so high in the team in the defensive metrics).

The point is if you're a 9 and you're low in the general play stats, you better be high on the goalscoring stats to make up for it, as other 9s usually do. Nunez comes up short in both categories.

[PEG2K]

Isn't there an arguement to be made that a lot of those chances out of 100 would be manufactured purely by him being the person?


Swap another striker with less speed and raw athleticism are they gonna get into as many positions as him?

They may convert more but does it honestly matter if they get into 1/3 of the shooting positions he does?

But can you quantify them? For example, if we put Jota in the 9 role and if he had as many minutes as Nunez, can you quantify how many chances he'd have and how many he wouldn't? Certainly it's not an arbitrary number like 1/3 because at the moment Jota already has way more than 1/3 despite not playing as the 9 like Nunez.

The "only Nunez can get those chances" argument is blown way out of proportion. Just watch the Nunez 's missed chances compilation. How many chances in that video you think Nunez can get but someone like Jota can't? You already have the answer.

[Eeyore]

This matter was already explained in my post. It was a response to Al's claim that Nunez contributes to our general play just as much as the other forwards. He doesn't, as indicated by his rankings in those stats.

I didn't say I expect our no 9 to not be lowest in those stats, as are other 9s. Except for the false 9s (Firmino used to be so high in the team in the defensive metrics).

The point is if you're a 9 and you're low in the general play stats, you better be high on the goalscoring stats to make up for it, as other 9s usually do. Nunez comes up short in both categories.

Or you can contribute by stretching the opposition with your pace. You can contribute by occupying both centre halves as Klopp has previously mentioned. You can also contribute by running the opposition's defenders into the ground.

I think it is telling how many goals we score late in games. I think Nunez contributes to that. There aren't stats for nuisance value or for creating chaos. I think it is telling how many ex-defenders who are now pundits state they would hate to play against Nunez. He chases lost causes, keeps defenders under pressure and forces mistakes.

His unpredictability also adds another dimension to our attacking play. For me, we look a more dangerous team with Nunez on the pitch.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Just out of curiosity, how many times he's hit the woodworks this season, in all competitions?

[Eeyore]

Just out of curiosity, how many times he's hit the woodworks this season, in all competitions?

Not sure about all comps but 9 in the League with the next being 5.



Suárez ended his Liverpool stint having registered 69 goals across 110 appearances. But his figures weren’t always so impressive. After his first 37 games, Suarez was on 10 goals and probably quite frustrated, because he had also seen 10 efforts hit the woodwork — making him the fastest player to hit double digits in this category since records began.

The next quickest? As of Sunday, it’s Núñez in just 42 games, both Uruguayan forwards mere inches from massively boosting their goalscoring output as they worked to establish themselves in English football’s top flight.

Incidentally, after 42 Premier League games, Nunez has one more goal (13) than Suarez.

[JackWard33]

This matter was already explained in my post. It was a response to Al's claim that Nunez contributes to our general play just as much as the other forwards. He doesn't, as indicated by his rankings in those stats.

I didn't say I expect our no 9 to not be lowest in those stats, as are other 9s. Except for the false 9s (Firmino used to be so high in the team in the defensive metrics).

The point is if you're a 9 and you're low in the general play stats, you better be high on the goalscoring stats to make up for it, as other 9s usually do. Nunez comes up short in both categories.

He doesn’t.
As has been done to death in here - his goal production for us (even during a bad finishing run) is very good. I mean looking up his goals /90 takes about 1/100th of the time it took you to compile your other way less relevant numbers

You can not rate Nunez but you can’t do that if you’re into stats and analytics .. it’s one or the other

[TepidT2O]

Ollie Watkins nominated for PFA player of the year.


Has exactly the same contribution as Darwin this year

[PEG2K]

He doesn’t.
As has been done to death in here - his goal production for us (even during a bad finishing run) is very good. I mean looking up his goals /90 takes about 1/100th of the time it took you to compile you’re other way less relevant numbers

You can not rate Nunez but you can’t do that if you’re into stats and analytics .. it’s one or the other

?

11 goals the league which works out to 0.5 per90 which ranks 20th in the league for players with more than 900 minutes. If you wants non-penalty goals then it's 15th.
Also the goal per 90 thing has been demystified in this thread already: 0.5 goal per 90 doesn't equal 18 goals a season.

As for the above poster: how is Watkins' 19 goals 12 assists "exactly the same contribution" as Nunez' 11 goals 8 assists lol?

[PEG2K]

Or you can contribute by stretching the opposition with your pace. You can contribute by occupying both centre halves as Klopp has previously mentioned. You can also contribute by running the opposition's defenders into the ground.

I think it is telling how many goals we score late in games. I think Nunez contributes to that. There aren't stats for nuisance value or for creating chaos. I think it is telling how many ex-defenders who are now pundits state they would hate to play against Nunez. He chases lost causes, keeps defenders under pressure and forces mistakes.

His unpredictability also adds another dimension to our attacking play. For me, we look a more dangerous team with Nunez on the pitch.

Funny that when it's convenient for your argument you resort to vague stuff that can't be quantified by stats. Like if other 9s play there they don't do that lol.

But if you want to go this route then the eye test people probably have more to say. Like what is the stats for missing golden chances at key moments that otherwise would have turned the momentum of the game which in turn kept our season going. That's probably easier to give a value as a stats than how much a striker runs defenders ragged.

[Eeyore]

Funny that when it's convenient for your argument you resort to vague stuff that can't be quantified by stats. Like if other 9s play there they don't do that lol.

But if you want to go this route then the eye test people probably have more to say. Like what is the stats for missing golden chances at key moments that otherwise would have turned the momentum of the game which in turn kept our season going. That's probably easier to give a value as a stats than how much a striker runs defenders ragged.

I think if you are going to talk about momentum then you would have to address why we go behind early in games so often. Something that has been happening since before Nunez arrived.

The eye test would probably say we have a lack of urgency and organisation defensively. The thing is we don't have stats for that. Something you would probably describe as convenient.

[istvan kozma]

Ollie Watkins nominated for PFA player of the year.


Has exactly the same contribution as Darwin this year

Watkins has scored 8 more goals, stop with the nonsense.

[Historical Fool]

In 2 to 3 years time Darwin will be competing for Ballon d’Ors while Watkins will be Solanke-ing it up in the championship …

[farawayred]

Ollie Watkins nominated for PFA player of the year.


Has exactly the same contribution as Darwin this year

Ya fucking kidding, right?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/top-scorers

[spider-neil]

Wakins is the clear first choice, hardly gets subbed and most of the play goes through him, right?

[CowboyKangaroo]

Ollie Watkins nominated for PFA player of the year.


Has exactly the same contribution as Darwin this year

Not quite. Nunez's 31 goal contributions includes the cups (which is the same as Watkins total in the PL). If we include Watkin's cup goals he comes out at 5 ahead.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Not sure about all comps but 9 in the League with the next being 5.



Suárez ended his Liverpool stint having registered 69 goals across 110 appearances. But his figures weren’t always so impressive. After his first 37 games, Suarez was on 10 goals and probably quite frustrated, because he had also seen 10 efforts hit the woodwork — making him the fastest player to hit double digits in this category since records began.

The next quickest? As of Sunday, it’s Núñez in just 42 games, both Uruguayan forwards mere inches from massively boosting their goalscoring output as they worked to establish themselves in English football’s top flight.

Incidentally, after 42 Premier League games, Nunez has one more goal (13) than Suarez.

Yeah, that's what I thought. Nunez can be frustrating, but if he finds his inner Suarez, we will have tough time keeping the likes of Real Madrid away from him ...

[alonsoisared]

?

11 goals the league which works out to 0.5 per90 which ranks 20th in the league for players with more than 900 minutes. If you wants non-penalty goals then it's 15th.
Also the goal per 90 thing has been demystified in this thread already: 0.5 goal per 90 doesn't equal 18 goals a season.

As for the above poster: how is Watkins' 19 goals 12 assists "exactly the same contribution" as Nunez' 11 goals 8 assists lol?

nobody has ever come up with an answer to this point. He has been available all season, been in the vast majority of squads and only has 11 league goals.

The fact that he isn't automatic first choice has been used to defend his record as opposed to Watkins above but surely him not being automatic first choice is somewhat damning in itself for our record signing? Even more so when you consider he's two seasons in, and is an out and out number 9. Other than at times of extreme fixture congestion, would we ever have left Salah, Torres, Suarez, Owen, Sturridge, Fowler etc out of the starting 11? If his all round play is as good as people make out and his attacking numbers are elite, why is he not making himself an automatic starter? With no real fitness problems, why is he subbed off so frequently, especially in a season where we often need to find winning goals late in games?

The argument is that with more minutes he automatically gets more goals. While to an extent that is logical, his manager obviously doesn't fully agree or he'd be keeping him on the pitch longer. He has to earn those extra minutes. If he was playing better, was more reliable in front of goal, made himself undroppable, he would have those minutes.

[Knight]

?

11 goals the league which works out to 0.5 per90 which ranks 20th in the league for players with more than 900 minutes. If you wants non-penalty goals then it's 15th.
Also the goal per 90 thing has been demystified in this thread already: 0.5 goal per 90 doesn't equal 18 goals a season.

As for the above poster: how is Watkins' 19 goals 12 assists "exactly the same contribution" as Nunez' 11 goals 8 assists lol?

Goals per 90 isn’t a ‘myth’ it’s just the best way to work out how often a player scores. It doesn’t ‘equal’ anything. It’s not perfect but it’s better than the alternatives. And of course when you include assists (because an assist helps us just as much) he’s at a very high level of production that you’d really struggle to improve.

And of course his underlying numbers suggest he’ll score more in future (he’s unlikely to run this cold forever, he’s unlikely to get as unlucky as he’s been at times forever).

But the underlying numbers and what you make of them aren’t determinative anyway. When dismissing Núñez you have to ignore his actual production even if you can explain away the possibility of his underlying numbers resulting in better goal scoring rates in future.

You can say all this whilst also saying he’s not scored as many goals as he should have this season.

[JackWard33]

?

11 goals the league which works out to 0.5 per90 which ranks 20th in the league for players with more than 900 minutes. If you wants non-penalty goals then it's 15th.
Also the goal per 90 thing has been demystified in this thread already: 0.5 goal per 90 doesn't equal 18 goals a season.

You can't 'demystify' per 90 .. its how player performance is measured by anyone who even vaguely knows what they're talking about
If you don't accept that as stats 101 then please never post a number on here again and make your comments about football not numbers

As for his output - first of all we're dealing only with the league as people in insist on doing (wonder why) .. but fine.
0.5 npg per 90 is really good - again anyone vaguely into numbers would accept that as objectively true. (in old money it's 1 in 2 from open play that will never not be a good benchmark)
(No idea why you've used 900 minutes as a sample when he's got 2000 minutes?.. I mean I do know why you've done this but its pretty transparent) 

And of course we're talking about goals scored .. which is fine because his production is good.. but a serious stats man like yourself would obviously be more interested in underlying performance and we all know the story there.

This is never ending but it all boils down to the same things:

1) He's a high producing forward in terms of goals, assists and shots and has been for several seasons no matter what side plays in - it doesn't matter how you cut up the numbers he always comes out as either very good or elite

2) He's had a very bad finishing season and should've scored more - this has been especially true in the league where he's been unsustainably unlucky in front of goal - even if he is a bad finisher

3) Despite point 2 he's still put up a vey good goal/assist return

4) The reason underlying numbers exist is to show performance more accurately absent variance in outcome.
People that don't accept the validity of this idea will view him as a far worse player than those that do. The people that run our football operations make decisions based on underlying numbers

[Mr Dilkington]

nobody has ever come up with an answer to this point. He has been available all season, been in the vast majority of squads and only has 11 league goals.

The fact that he isn't automatic first choice has been used to defend his record as opposed to Watkins above but surely him not being automatic first choice is somewhat damning in itself for our record signing? Even more so when you consider he's two seasons in, and is an out and out number 9. Other than at times of extreme fixture congestion, would we ever have left Salah, Torres, Suarez, Owen, Sturridge, Fowler etc out of the starting 11? If his all round play is as good as people make out and his attacking numbers are elite, why is he not making himself an automatic starter? With no real fitness problems, why is he subbed off so frequently, especially in a season where we often need to find winning goals late in games?

The argument is that with more minutes he automatically gets more goals. While to an extent that is logical, his manager obviously doesn't fully agree or he'd be keeping him on the pitch longer. He has to earn those extra minutes. If he was playing better, was more reliable in front of goal, made himself undroppable, he would have those minutes.

Only 5 players have played more minutes than him this season? How many players in our squad could be described as automatic first choice? Alisson, VVD, Mac, Salah probably. When you have 5 good forwards of course you're not going to play 90 minutes every week. Klopp has typically asked 2 of the 3 forwards to squeeze all their running into 60 minutes so that the remaining two forwards can come on for the last 30. That's why Diaz and Núñez are often subbed around the hour mark for Gakpo and Jota/Elliott.

If the argument is: Núñez so far is not as good a Liverpool player as Suarez, Torres, Owen, Sturbridge, Salah and Fowler I'm not sure you'll get many arguments.

[killer-heels]

Yeah, that's what I thought. Nunez can be frustrating, but if he finds his inner Suarez, we will have tough time keeping the likes of Real Madrid away from him ...

Amazingly, Real Madrid prising him away isnt of great concern to Liverpool fans.

[Bennett]

Ollie Watkins nominated for PFA player of the year.


Has exactly the same contribution as Darwin this year

lol

[CowboyKangaroo]

lol

It isn't massively different to be fair. 36 vs 31, and comes out more or less the same when minutes are accounted for. In any case, we'd all agree that Watkins had a great season, so doing slightly worse is surely no bad thing? Additionally, Watkins underlying numbers are significantly worse, so there's not much confidence he would hit the same levels next year.

[Coolie High]

It isn't massively different to be fair. 36 vs 31, and comes out more or less the same when minutes are accounted for. In any case, we'd all agree that Watkins had a great season, so doing slightly worse is surely no bad thing? Additionally, Watkins underlying numbers are significantly worse, so there's not much confidence he would hit the same levels next year.

They don’t include Europa league or Conference for PFA player of the year its mostly based on PL, Watkins has 19 goals and 12 assists, Nunez has 11 and 8.

And it’s not judged on underlying numbers either.

[killer-heels]

It isn't massively different to be fair. 36 vs 31, and comes out more or less the same when minutes are accounted for. In any case, we'd all agree that Watkins had a great season, so doing slightly worse is surely no bad thing? Additionally, Watkins underlying numbers are significantly worse, so there's not much confidence he would hit the same levels next year.

Watkins is far ahead in goals and assists for the Premier League. He doesnt compare to Nunez.

[Pistolero]

It isn't massively different to be fair. 36 vs 31, and comes out more or less the same when minutes are accounted for.

 

[CowboyKangaroo]

They don’t include Europa league or Conference for PFA player of the year its mostly based on PL, Watkins has 19 goals and 12 assists, Nunez has 11 and 8.

And it’s not judged on underlying numbers either.

Absolutely true for the award - not my point though.

[Rhi]

You can not rate Nunez but you can’t do that if you’re into stats and analytics .. it’s one or the other

Your arrogance is staggering.

[Bennett]

It isn't massively different to be fair. 36 vs 31, and comes out more or less the same when minutes are accounted for.

Beginning to think it's a mental illness at this point.

[Bennett]

You can not rate Nunez but you can’t do that if you’re into stats and analytics .. it’s one or the other

[Mr Dilkington]

Beginning to think it's a mental illness at this point.

Yes it's definitely a mental illness for someone to say a player who has 0.54 goals per90 over the last year is comparable to another player who has... 0.54 goals p90 over the same time period.

Call in the doctors!

[JackWard33]

Your arrogance is staggering.

Bit personal for a mod but you do you

Your comment is misplaced on that quote you’ve posted though because it’s not really my opinion it’s a comment on his analytics
I didnt invent the rules  .. other very bright people did that then proved it over huge sample sizes … his metrics are really good - there’s never been much else to say about them (his shot volume, xa, xg, etc aren’t opinion based things)

Therefore no one that’s analytics based doesn’t rate him - that’s not my opinion or arrogance or anything else to do with me

If you don’t rate him because of play style, technical ability, fit into the team / system, attitude, fitness record or you just don’t think analytics is vallid as a thing at all that’s all one person’s opinion either way but me saying his on ball analytics for a forward are very good isn’t

[Bennett]

Yes it's definitely a mental illness for someone to say a player who has 0.54 goals per90 over the last year is comparable to another player who has... 0.54 goals p90 over the same time period.

Call in the doctors!

19 goals and 12 assists vs 11 goals and 8 assists.

Just because we thumped European giants like Sparta Prague and LASK means fuck all in the grand scheme of things.

[mullyred94]

19 goals and 12 assists vs 11 goals and 8 assists.

Just because we thumped European giants like Sparta Prague and LASK means fuck all in the grand scheme of things.

Context is important is it not?

Bit much to say its mental illness.

So .54 per 90 is just a made up fact?

This thread is cooked, I acutally hope we sell the lad and he goes on to be a world beater at somewhere else because we can't even appreciate what we have.

[Bennett]

Context is important is it not?

Bit much to say its mental illness.

So .54 per 90 is just a made up fact?

This thread is cooked, I acutally hope we sell the lad and he goes on to be a world beater at somewhere else because we can't even appreciate what we have.

Is this made up?

https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpg

Glad we agree on selling him though.

[mullyred94]

Is this made up?

https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpg

Glad we agree on selling him though.

Is anyone disputing that though?

The point is he is still effective despite not being a good finisher.

So what mental illness is there mate?

Or are going to start questioning what the word " effective " means?

[Agent99]

You can not rate Nunez but you can’t do that if you’re into stats and analytics .. it’s one or the other

Michael Edwards says hello.

[killer-heels]

Michael Edwards says hello.

To be fair we dont know if he does or doesnt. He may very well do so.