Topic: FSG discussion thread

[Redric1970]

Has anyone heard of enzo Fernandez my son absolutely raves about him a 21 year old midfielder for benfica apparently he’s unbelievably good (likened to zidane) and linked with us today for £44mil, if we could sign him and say barella £75mil that’s job done it’s not a fortune under £120mil and 2/3rds of the issues sorted, if we could add bellingham at the end of the season our midfield at least on paper is done for the next 10 years. Is that kind of spending unreasonable I don’t think so.

Ps
If anyone knows about this kid I would love to know what they think.

[Rawkybalboa]

Has anyone heard of enzo Fernandez my son absolutely raves about him a 21 year old midfielder for benfica apparently he’s unbelievably good (likened to zidane) and linked with us today for £44mil, if we could sign him and say barella £75mil that’s job done it’s not a fortune under £120mil and 2/3rds of the issues sorted, if we could add bellingham at the end of the season our midfield at least on paper is done for the next 10 years. Is that kind of spending unreasonable I don’t think so.

Ps
If anyone knows about this kid I would love to know what they think.

Him v Juventus. Gets all the time in the world to spray it around. Doubt he can do any of that if pressed like in the Premier League.

https://twitter.com/AlbicelesteTalk/status/1585247632372666369?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Waterpistol]

Thanks for posting your reply, saved me from having to write exactly what you did!


This is the other line of thinking that really makes me shake my head. We have lost titles to Man City with 97 and 92 points and lost a CL final that we completely dominated. There is absolutely no way of knowing if signing additional players would have made any difference whatsoever to those outcomes, and in fact there is no way of knowing if adding players may have actually caused us to score fewer points than we did in those seasons. Maybe the player that you sign gets sent off in a game that we won and would have turned it into a loss, or would have made an error which lead to an equalizer, or maybe squad harmony was affected, or maybe Klopp would have changed tactics and team shape which could have affected the outcome of every game that season. They are all complete unknowns.

When you are an 75- 80 point team then single players can make a huge difference, but the more points you accumulate the potential for marginal gains by adding one or two players diminishes massively, and in fact it can easily go the other way. When you are that close to perfection and putting up seasons that are the best that the PL has ever seen then whether or not you win or lose the title comes down to key moments.  That can be luck, refereeing decisions, or just a missed chance or mistake at the wrong time. When we finished with 97 points we had a ball fail to cross the line by 4mm, Kompany not being sent off, and the same player then scoring to win a game with a 1 in 1,000 shot from outside the box. Last season with 92 points we had the two penalty decisions that won City two games they would probably have drawn, and both Salah and Mane having a shocker against Leicester in a game we dominated, plus a few very uncharacteristic mistakes from Alisson which cost us points.

In seasons like this current one or 2020/21 then you can definitely make a very good case that additional players in key areas would have made a huge difference, but we can't try to rewrite history and say what would have happened in 2018/19 or 2021/22.

I suggest you look at the games last season up to January where we dropped points. Make a note of the midfielders who played and look at some of the goals we conceded if you can't remember.

Of course a midfielder would have made a difference. We needed ONE game to have been a win from a draw/defeat and we win the title.

If we were regularly finishing 15+ points behind City then fair enough, not much you can do about that. But we weren't.

[Redric1970]

Him v Juventus. Gets all the time in the world to spray it around. Doubt he can do any of that if pressed like in the Premier League.

https://twitter.com/AlbicelesteTalk/status/1585247632372666369?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Apparently he’s been doing it all season and has more completed Passes then anyone in the top 6 leagues (according to my son lol) someone who trained him and zidane said he’s that level potentially, I have no idea I’ve never heard of him but it’s nice being linked with someone who sounds promising rather than worry about not being linked with anyone.

[WanderlustRed]

No way are we gonna be able to compete with the big guns whilst shopping at Poundland.
Clubs like Utd can afford to buy and bench Sanch 80million, Fred 50million, wan Bisaka 50million, Casemiero etc and the list goes on.
Our lot still holding on for dear life that Kieta will one day be worth the £50million otherwise its the end of the world.
Sorry to say but the other clubs are on a different level spend wise. Klopp forced to work miracles for far too long.

We aren't Man U and I don't want to be Man U. They're still a clown show and still probably won't finish top 4 this year. IMO we still have a better chance to finish ahead of them than the other way around.

If "we should do what Man U does" is the solution, I don't want to know what the supposed problem is.

[WanderlustRed]

Him v Juventus. Gets all the time in the world to spray it around. Doubt he can do any of that if pressed like in the Premier League.

https://twitter.com/AlbicelesteTalk/status/1585247632372666369?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So basically same as Ruben Neves, then?

[Waterpistol]

They knew they couldn't compete with PSG/CITY/Chelsea/United so the only way was cooperate with Madrid/Juventus and form the ESL. I think the ESL is coming for sure.

People will be begging for ESL if they could see what the league will look like in three seasons. Two state owned clubs acting like peak Barca and Madrid. We had one shot to put ourselves firmly in the driving seat with a few more signings from 2018-2021 and they bottled it to save dough.

[Eeyore]

That is one way getting Al out of a thread, asking him to pay up.

I'm okay Samie I wasn't the one offering prizes

[Johnny Foreigner]

Assuming FSG bought the club for 300 million pounds (rough numbers) and now should be able to get out with 8-10 times that return without putting anything of their own money in the run.. Linda, John etc being very active on social medias - "super club/city/fans" blah blah blah.. If they put in lets say 500 million pounds and settle for 6-8 times the investment.. Is that totally unreasonable or is FSG worth every penny they will sell out at ? If you say they deserve every penny; fair enough but that is not Shankly socialism to me. sad times

[El Lobo]

Assuming FSG bought the club for 300 million pounds (rough numbers) and now should be able to get out with 8-10 times that return without putting anything of their own money in the run.. Linda, John etc being very active on social medias - "super club/city/fans" blah blah blah.. If they put in lets say 500 million pounds and settle for 6-8 times the investment.. Is that totally unreasonable or is FSG worth every penny they will sell out at ? If you say they deserve every penny; fair enough but that is not Shankly socialism to me. sad times

Who are they selling it to…?

[ScouserAtHeart]

I doubt they have 500 million liquidity either

[Sharado]

I suggest you look at the games last season up to January where we dropped points. Make a note of the midfielders who played and look at some of the goals we conceded if you can't remember.

Of course a midfielder would have made a difference. We needed ONE game to have been a win from a draw/defeat and we win the title.

Yep. Look at Brentford [3-3], Brighton [2-0 up to 2-2], Tottenham away [Tyler Morton starts, 2-2], Chelsea away [2-0 up, ends 2-2]  or even the 1-1 with Tottenham towards the end of the season when the whole team were running on fumes, and tell me our situation doesn't improve with one additional midfielder.

Going so close to the quad was used as a bit of a stick to say 'we don't need improvements' whereas the opposite is true - a little bit more investment and this squad would be immortal.

[keyop]

This is great - he said where have I defended FSG FOR using transfer revenues on Capex spending.

You post two separate statements and try to imply that it is what he asked you to prove.

I think you owe him 100.

Thank you. I also didn't say Coutinho was the only player sold, so maybe I should get £200 

[Lynndenberries]

It's interesting to see this debate since it is becoming more and more prevalent across sports around the world. Owners in the NBA get a lot of criticism for not spending over the cap, even though the franchises bring in an absurd amount and are valued way higher than when the owners originally bought them.

Since they came in, I have been a fan of FSG for the most part. They showed in the USA that they can revive a franchise and make them a consistent competitor, which is what they have done here, but it is still frustrating. Liverpool as a club has to be valued at £2B+ easily, so ideally they would throw some more money in the club, not recklessly, but enough to get us through this rebuild.

[Eeyore]

Why do you keep using 4 years? Oh, because we had a net spend of £127m the year before. Why ignore that our wages/revenue ratio has jumped from 57% to 65% in five years? So you can suggest the increase in wages have no impact on transfer cashflow (and compare wages only from 19/20 to 20/21, when they fell by a few million because we didn't pay title winning bonuses in the latter season...).

Your comparisons are four teams who haven't won anything playing catchup, without any successful stars wanting a 'new challenge' to fund their investment. Including Spurs, whose wage bill was less than 50% of revenue for 3 of the last 4 financial years; United, who are the example of how not to run a football club; Arsenal, who are gambling on vastly increasing revenue by being successful for the first time in two decades or losing all of their good players when they can't afford to renew their contracts; and the Saudi state.

There is a very simple reason why I keep using the last 4 years because it coincides with us winning the CL and then stopping spending. We were the best team on the planet in the summer window we brought in Adrian on a free and SDB for the Academy. So a transfer spend under FFP of £0. Even though we brought in £40m from player sales.

The Net spend during that period is enlightening.

16/17 profit
17/18 profit
18/19 £127m Net Spend
19/20 profit

Guess which season saw us kick on and become the best team on the planet winning the CL, Club World Cup and Premier league.

[B0151?]

People will be begging for ESL if they could see what the league will look like in three seasons. Two state owned clubs acting like peak Barca and Madrid. We had one shot to put ourselves firmly in the driving seat with a few more signings from 2018-2021 and they bottled it to save dough.

Well I certainly won't be begging for the ESL whatever happens. I'd rather go another 30 years than that shite that would just 10x all the things currently wrong with the game.

[Eeyore]

Who are they selling it to…?

There were 14 bidders for Chelsea with a number of them prepared to pay £4bn.

Selling the club would not be a problem.

[keyop]

No way are we gonna be able to compete with the big guns whilst shopping at Poundland.
Clubs like Utd can afford to buy and bench Sanch 80million, Fred 50million, wan Bisaka 50million, Casemiero etc and the list goes on.
Our lot still holding on for dear life that Kieta will one day be worth the £50million otherwise its the end of the world.
Sorry to say but the other clubs are on a different level spend wise. Klopp forced to work miracles for far too long.

That might be the case, but they are also £550m in debt, have a crumbling stadium, an old training ground, fan protests against the owners, are on their 6th manager in 10 years, and have possibly the worst transfer record since 2013 of any club in sporting history.

They are the last club I'd use to draw any comparisons with.

[Eeyore]

Thank you. I also didn't say Coutinho was the only player sold, so maybe I should get £200 

Firstly you listed one player who was sold and then a whole host of players who were bought. So the clear inference was Coutinho was the only player sold.

Secondly I am not the one offering prizes 

[Johnny Foreigner]

Who are they selling it to…?

If you bought your own house for 50k ten years ago - and the neighbours are selling off their houses for 500k now (same size, same quality) - do you need to know the name of the potential buyer in order to say you have a very good potential return of your own house ?

Alternatively google Forbes valuation LFC, multiples of operating income, redbird for a start..

Alternatively - a quick joke/one-liner

[Johnny Foreigner]

I doubt they have 500 million liquidity either

Why should they have 500 million in cash for this ? If I have a house that is valued at 50 million pounds; 2 million pounds debt allocated (random numbers) I don't need a million pound in cash to buy a small holiday home..

[Hazell]

Firstly you listed one player who was sold and then a whole host of players who were bought. So the clear inference was Coutinho was the only player sold.

Secondly I am not the one offering prizes 

Pedant

[please, I have my reasons for it but...]

But how is she getting to these games? John Henry doesn't attend them so is she expecting to be flown over to them as well? I mean, the fact she (or you on her behalf) are even complaining about this and using it as a stick to beat someone with is pathetic when as has been mentioned, people in this city can't get tickets

Mate, she has her own stuff booked, accommodation, travel expenses, etc. She isn't asking for any of that stuff to be taken care of by the owners nor is she asking to be seated in any of the VIP boxes at Anfield, that is not what she is complaining about. She is not even complaining, she said that she was surprised more than anything. When you are on the road all year, travelling after the baseball team, taking care of VIP guests and their shit in private boxes in Fenway, and even take care of stuff that is not part of her job description like attending to his wife and kids, and you ask your boss for a couple of tickets for an event to a business that he owns so that you can to the games during your own vacation, you wouldn't expect to have $100-150 deducted from your salary. One of the companies I worked for had a sponsorship with the Celtics and at no time was I charged for any Celtics game that I went to, when I asked for ticket, even when it was playoff games.

[Wengerpresser101]

So I had a thought experiment. If in 2015, Klopp had decided to join one of Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs, or Chelsea, clubs with bigger net spend then us basically, instead of joining us. Assuming everything that Klopp brought to the club stayed the same, i.e. his coaches, his nutritionists, his approach, etc etc. Do people think he would have won more, equal, or less than he has won here so far?

I think he would have won more at Man Utd, Spurs, and Chelsea. And equal at Arsenal.


Another thought experiment I had was, in 2018, the CL final lineup.

R.Madrid had
Navas, Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo, Modric, Casemiro, Kroos, Isco, Benzema, Ronaldo on the field, with Nacho, Bale, Casilla,Theo Hernandez, Vasquez, Asensio, Kovacic on the bench.

We (Liverpool) had
Karius, Trent, Lovren, Van Dijk, Robertson, Gini, Hendo, Milner, Salah, Firmino, Mane on the field, with Clyne, Klavan, Moreno, Lallana, Mignolet, Emre Can, Solanke on the bench.

In 2022 their most recent CL match against Leipzig their lineup is
Courtouis, Vasquez, Militao, Nacho, Rudiger, Tchoumanei, Kroos, Asensio, Camavinga, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, with Hazard, Alaba, Vallejo, Lunin, Odriozola, Mendy, Lopez on the bench.

If the teams had been switched, i.e. R.Madrid had all our 2018 players instead of what they actually had. Assuming player form stays the same, and Real Madrid’s ruthless approach to moving on players stays the same, how many of those (our 2018) players do people think would still be in the Real Madrid team right now?

I think only Trent and Van Dijk would remain. 

[please, I have my reasons for it but...]

So I had a thought experiment. If in 2015, Klopp had decided to join one of Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs, or Chelsea, clubs with bigger net spend then us basically, instead of joining us. Assuming everything that Klopp brought to the club stayed the same, i.e. his coaches, his nutritionists, his approach, etc etc. Do people think he would have won more, equal, or less than he has won here so far?

I think he would have won more at Man Utd, Spurs, and Chelsea. And equal at Arsenal.


Another thought experiment I had was, in 2018, the CL final lineup.

R.Madrid had
Navas, Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo, Modric, Casemiro, Kroos, Isco, Benzema, Ronaldo on the field, with Nacho, Bale, Casilla,Theo Hernandez, Vasquez, Asensio, Kovacic on the bench.

We (Liverpool) had
Karius, Trent, Lovren, Van Dijk, Robertson, Gini, Hendo, Milner, Salah, Firmino, Mane on the field, with Clyne, Klavan, Moreno, Lallana, Mignolet, Emre Can, Solanke on the bench.

In 2022 their most recent CL match against Leipzig their lineup is
Courtouis, Vasquez, Militao, Nacho, Rudiger, Tchoumanei, Kroos, Asensio, Camavinga, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, with Hazard, Alaba, Vallejo, Lunin, Odriozola, Mendy, Lopez on the bench.

If the teams had been switched, i.e. R.Madrid had all our 2018 players instead of what they actually had. Assuming player form stays the same, and Real Madrid’s ruthless approach to moving on players stays the same, how many of those (our 2018) players do people think would still be in the Real Madrid team right now?

I think only Trent and Van Dijk would remain.

They would probably have kept Salah too because he is far from finished.

[Wengerpresser101]

Yeh the point of those thought experiments is. The first experiment uncovers how much of a role our owners has played in our success, compared to how much of a role Klopp has played. If Klopp would have gotten more success at Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs, and equal success at Arsenal, then that basically tells us that our success was because of Klopp not because of FSG's policies. And if Klopp would have gotten more success at Man Utd, Chelsea, and Spurs, then tells us that FSG's policies are holding us back compared to other owners.

The second experiment uncovers our ruthlessness in the transfer market compared to clubs who have successfully rebuilt their squad like Real Madrid. Like I feel like, one of the things they Real Madrid did differently was they were ruthless at offloading players, even players who were in decline but not totally finished (like Ronaldo, Casemiro), or players who are decent but not club standard (Odegard, Jovic). And I think that could be something we improved on as I feel we aren't as ruthless.

[Redric1970]

Mate, she has her own stuff booked, accommodation, travel expenses, etc. She isn't asking for any of that stuff to be taken care of by the owners nor is she asking to be seated in any of the VIP boxes at Anfield, that is not what she is complaining about. She is not even complaining, she said that she was surprised more than anything. When you are on the road all year, travelling after the baseball team, taking care of VIP guests and their shit in private boxes in Fenway, and even take care of stuff that is not part of her job description like attending to his wife and kids, and you ask your boss for a couple of tickets for an event to a business that he owns so that you can to the games during your own vacation, you wouldn't expect to have $100-150 deducted from your salary. One of the companies I worked for had a sponsorship with the Celtics and at no time was I charged for any Celtics game that I went to, when I asked for ticket, even when it was playoff games.

I agree with you mate, he’s just being argumentative for the sake of it.

[Eeyore]

Mate, she has her own stuff booked, accommodation, travel expenses, etc. She isn't asking for any of that stuff to be taken care of by the owners nor is she asking to be seated in any of the VIP boxes at Anfield, that is not what she is complaining about. She is not even complaining, she said that she was surprised more than anything. When you are on the road all year, travelling after the baseball team, taking care of VIP guests and their shit in private boxes in Fenway, and even take care of stuff that is not part of her job description like attending to his wife and kids, and you ask your boss for a couple of tickets for an event to a business that he owns so that you can to the games during your own vacation, you wouldn't expect to have $100-150 deducted from your salary. One of the companies I worked for had a sponsorship with the Celtics and at no time was I charged for any Celtics game that I went to, when I asked for ticket, even when it was playoff games.

Look on the bright side mate. When Craig reports back from this forum she will be an ex-employee. 

[Wengerpresser101]

I was also reading on what people said about what model we should use. I think we should follow Real Madrid's model.

Here is Real Madrid's transfer history over the past 5 seasons, where they had a total net spend of 7m.

Real Madrid Transfer Activity

17/18
Arrival
Theo Hernandez 24m
Dani Ceballos 16m

Departures
Alvaro Morata 66m
Danilo 30m
Diego Llorente 11m
Mariano Diaz 8m
Burgui 3m
James Rodriguez loan 13m

Net spend -92m

18/19

Arrival
Vinicius Junior 45m
Thibaut Courtouis 35m
Alvaro Odriozola 32m
Mariano Diaz 22m
Brahim Diaz 17m
Andriy Lunin 9m
Omar Mascarell 4m
Lucas Torro 2m

Departures
C.Ronaldo 117m
Omar Mascarell 10m
Lucas Torro 4m
Borja Mayoral loan 2m
Philip Lienhart 2m
Raul de Tomas loan 1m
Oscar Rodriguez loan
F.Coentrao free
Casila free
Matheo Kovacic loan
Theo Hernandez loan
Andriy Lunin loan
Hakimi loan
Odegaard loan

Net spend  28m

19/20

Arrival
Eden Hazard 115m
Luka Jovic 63m
Militao 50m
Ferland Mendy 48m
Rodrygo 45m
Reinier 30m
Albert Soro 3m
Alphonso Areola 2m
T. Kubo free

Departures
Kovacic 45m
Marcos Llorente 30m
Theo Hernandez 22m
Raul de Tomas 20m
Keylor Navas 15m
Odegard loan 2m
Mayoral loan 2m
Dani Ceballos loan
Sergio Reguillon loan
Andriy Lunin loan

Net spend 220m

20/21

Arrival

Departures
Hakimi 43m
Reguilon 30m
Oscar Rodriguez 14m
Javi Sanchez 3m
Mayoral loan 3m
Alberto Soro 2m
Odegard loan 2m
James Rodriguez free
Gareth Bale loan
Jesus Vallejo loan
Jorge de Frutos 2m
Dani Gomez 2m
Luka Jovic 1m loan
Brahim Diaz loan

Net spend -104m

21/22

Arrival
Camavinga 31m
Alaba free

Departures
Varane 40m
Odegard 35m
Sergio Ramos free
Brahim Diaz loan 3m

Net spend -47m

22/23

Arrival
Tchoumanei 80m
A.Rudiger free

Departures
Casemiro 71m
Borja Mayoral 10m
T.Kubo 7m
Miguel Gutirrez 4m
Luka Jovic free
Isco free
Marcelo free
Gareth Bale free

Net spend -12m


Net spend over 5 seasons: 7m

I thought about what Real Madrid have done differently compared to us. As they basically rejuvenated their squad while have a net spend of 7m over 5 seasons. Here's what I observed:

i) Actively sold their star players in decline for substantial fees  (i.e. Ronaldo 112m, Casemiro 71m, Varane 40m, Kovacic 45m, Marcos Llorente 30m)
ii) Sold unwanted players for decent amount (Theo Hernandez 22m, Hakimi 43m, Reguillon 30m, Oscar Rodriguez 14m, Odegard 35m, de Tomas 20m, K.Navas 15m)
iii) Not afraid to move a player on quickly once it becomes clear it's not working out (T.Kubo 7m, Luka Jovic free, Borja Mayoral 10m, Theo Hernandez 22m, Martin Odegard 35m)
iv) Not afraid to buy players even if it means it doesn't work out (Odriozola, Mariano Diaz, Brahim Diaz, T.Kubo, Luka Jovic, Mayoral, T.Hernandez, M.Odegard)
v) Buy replacement first, then sell the players whom they replaced (Buy Militao then sell Sergio Ramos, buy tchoumani and camavinga then sell Casemiro and (in future) Kroos)

In short, they basically were active in recruitment, both in buying and selling. The ones who worked out, they kept. The ones who didn't work out, they sold for a profit.

I feel this is where both FSG and to a small extent Klopp, play a decent amount of responsibility.

In regards to FSG, maybe if FSG operated with a buy and sell policy, where outgoings has to be balanced with incomings within a 5 year or a 3 year period, then we would have the transfer flexibility to do what Real Madrid did. 

In regards to Klopp, maybe if Klopp was more ruthless in offloading players who don't perform and players who are in decline, then we wouldn't be stuck with this underperforming squad. However I do feel this is where Klopp has his hands kind of restricted by sell to buy policy.

Real Madrid buy players they want first, then they sell the players they don't want within a season or two. Whereas since we operate with a sell to buy policy, so we have to sell first, then buy (Coutinho Van Dijk Allison, Mane Nunez, Torres Suarez). So maybe if Klopp had a little more flexibility in the transfer market by FSG, he could buy first, and then sell to balance the books. As I feel like possibly one of the reason Klopp didn't sell, is because he couldn't buy a replacement first, unlike Real Madrid.

So I feel like FSG should change to a buy and sell policy long term, as that would allow us more flexibility to operate in the transfer market, while still being relatively self sufficient in the long run. I also feel like with more flexibility, Klopp can also be more ruthless in the transfer market, and move on underperforming players.

[redmark]

There is a very simple reason why I keep using the last 4 years because it coincides with us winning the CL and then stopping spending. We were the best team on the planet in the summer window we brought in Adrian on a free and SDB for the Academy. So a transfer spend under FFP of £0. Even though we brought in £40m from player sales.

The Net spend during that period is enlightening.

16/17 profit
17/18 profit
18/19 £127m Net Spend
19/20 profit

Guess which season saw us kick on and become the best team on the planet winning the CL, Club World Cup and Premier league.

Wages.

16/17 £208m (57.0% of revenue)
17/18 £264m (58.0%)
18/19 £310m (58.2%)
19/20 £326m (66.5%)
20/21 £314m (64.5%)

(Figures from Deloitte annual reports)

Where I disagree is your suggestion that the renewals don't impact transfer funds because 'wages fell'. That doesn't consider PL bonuses in 19/20 (and CL bonuses in 18/19) - suggesting that the basic wage bill have risen, quite a bit. The £44m leap in wages between 17/18 and 18/19 gives an idea of how significant bonuses could be (the ins and outs the prior summer might account for about half of that, in basic wages - the following season's signings would have seen lower wages, all else being equal). Even without trying to estimate the impact of bonuses (and ignoring the very low £208m in 16/17), they've risen from £264m to maybe £300m, or a fraction under, in 3 years to 20/21. Then 2021/22 and this summer saw the renewals of Alisson, Trent, Gomez, VVD, Robertson, Fabinho, Henderson, Salah, Jota, Elliott (second renewal) and Klopp himself...

Now, I do think we have unspent transfer kitty from the summer (£50m-£60m?). I think there's an argument that we should be able to bring forward money from next summer, if necessary and we have available targets. But I think you're over-emphasising net spend and under-estimating wages as a factor. I think a lot of people do, because net spend is easier to understand - and overall squad management/wages suggests the manager himself, as well as the rest of the recruitment team, have some culpability on how the squad got where it is today. Of course our squad is too old and stale, requiring significant renewal. But I think that's a collective failure, not just an FSG one. I can't fathom - or believe that Klopp would accept - a situation in which FSG are renewing players Klopp wants to sell.

We - Klopp, Edwards, Ward and FSG - built a title challenging, CL winning, title winning squad. We - collectively - have kept that squad together, not selling our best players. You think that's because we wouldn't invest. I suspect it's because that's what Klopp wanted, initially at least. Too loyal perhaps as others have said; or going so close in 18/19, 'one more push' for 19/20, COVID... any intended refresh has been stalled and we're now in some trouble. I don't think FSG are blameless; they could be more risk-averse at times. But equally when fans scream that we need a new midfielder (because we spent £100m+ on three who can't keep fit and renewed the contracts of three others with an average age over 30) I can see why they don't automatically pump in £100m of their own money to buy more.

Anyway... football soon.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

I suggest you look at the games last season up to January where we dropped points. Make a note of the midfielders who played and look at some of the goals we conceded if you can't remember.

Of course a midfielder would have made a difference. We needed ONE game to have been a win from a draw/defeat and we win the title.

Yep. Look at Brentford [3-3], Brighton [2-0 up to 2-2], Tottenham away [Tyler Morton starts, 2-2], Chelsea away [2-0 up, ends 2-2]  or even the 1-1 with Tottenham towards the end of the season when the whole team were running on fumes, and tell me our situation doesn't improve with one additional midfielder.

You are both missing the point. You seem to want to take an extra midfielder and drop him into every game where we dropped points and turn those draws into wins. But that isn't how life works, you'd have to replay every game that season due to having a different squad, different starting line-ups, and maybe even a different formation or team shape. You can't just assume that the results stay the same in all the the other games that we won. Maybe that new midfielder picked up a season ending injury and couldn't play in any of those games, or took 3 months to get up to speed like Fabinho or Robertson, or we play worse in one of the games that we won and drop additional points rather than gain any. No one knows what would have happened and so you can't just say that one extra midfielder = league title + CL win.

That thinking works much better in seasons like 2019/20 where we massively underperformed due to injuries and an extra CB could well have made a massive difference to the season as a whole, not just some cherry picked games that didn't go the way that we wanted.

[lamonti]

The problem is the PL has outgrown them financially. They were banking on FFP working which would keep spending levels down.

They have done well to get our revenues up but are unwilling/unable to spend what our competitors spend which leaves you at the mercy of needing a great manager and every transfer working out in order to compete.

It should be Man United competing with City rather than us given spending. Chelsea as well and plus what Arsenal have spent to get back and now Newcastle.

I think they should move on on one hand but then better the devil you know at the same time. If they were error free it would be okay but their fucks are numerous and costly.

I think this is the crux of it. The game has gone even crazier than they though it was.

But this season's disappointments... I find it difficult to lay them at their door.

[Kundale]

You are both missing the point. You seem to want to take an extra midfielder and drop him into every game where we dropped points and turn those draws into wins. But that isn't how life works, you'd have to replay every game that season due to having a different squad, different starting line-ups, and maybe even a different formation or team shape. You can't just assume that the results stay the same in all the the other games that we won. Maybe that new midfielder picked up a season ending injury and couldn't play in any of those games, or took 3 months to get up to speed like Fabinho or Robertson, or we play worse in one of the games that we won and drop additional points rather than gain any. No one knows what would have happened and so you can't just say that one extra midfielder = league title + CL win.

That thinking works much better in seasons like 2019/20 where we massively underperformed due to injuries and an extra CB could well have made a massive difference to the season as a whole, not just some cherry picked games that didn't go the way that we wanted.

We will never know as it never happened, all we can do is speculate.

From what I read, we went for Diaz mid season only cause of Conte's interest in him, (Spurs) otherwise we would have waited till Summer. I think he did make a difference though. 

[plura]

You have to add that obviously since they are Real Madrid they have a different pull for some players. Most teams in the world would have gone for Camavinga, Vinicius, Rodrygo if they could, and for some of the fees paid.
But overall they have paid well (as in not too much) for a lot of their targets. I assume the likes of Alaba and more have hefty wages and sign on bonuses so you have to add that of course.

[WanderlustRed]

I was also reading on what people said about what model we should use. I think we should follow Real Madrid's model.

There were a lot of really bad buys there, especially up to 19/20. They spent on all of those for basically 4-5 guys.

3 very important names not on there -- Benzema, Kroos, Modric. And Ancelotti.

Seems they've been better lately at identifying the right players without spending wastefully on the wrong ones.

[Wengerpresser101]

You have to add that obviously since they are Real Madrid they have a different pull for some players. Most teams in the world would have gone for Camavinga, Vinicius, Rodrygo if they could, and for some of the fees paid.
But overall they have paid well (as in not too much) for a lot of their targets. I assume the likes of Alaba and more have hefty wages and sign on bonuses so you have to add that of course.

True that Real Madrid are relatively bigger than us, however we have the Klopp factor (who's bigger than Ancelotti) and are quite a big club ourselves so I think we still have a decent amount of pull.

[Wengerpresser101]

There were a lot of really bad buys there, especially up to 19/20. They spent on all of those for basically 4-5 guys.

3 very important names not on there -- Benzema, Kroos, Modric. And Ancelotti.

Seems they've been better lately at identifying the right players without spending wastefully on the wrong ones.

Yeh there were more bad buys with them, but with their bad buys, they still moved them on quickly (within a season or two) when they realized they were bad buys. I feel like with us while we have less bad buys, we are reluctant to move them on (Keita, Ox), compared to Real Madrid. As for the why this is, I think it's mostly due to our tight inflexible transfer policy, and to a smaller extent due to Klopp's lack of ruthlessness.

Also in regards to acquiring the players, I feel like we often are one step behind the player's development curve. Like we look to acquire the player after he is well known, not when they are exciting talent but relatively unproven on the big stage, i.e. Haaland with Salzburg, Bellingham with Birmingham City. I think this is because we are unwilling to take on more risk.

I feel like if we took on more risk and got these exciting players at an earlier stage, we would win bigger i.e. getting stars at lower prices instead of being priced out/paying high fees, and for the losses (players that don't turn out good) we can just move them on for a profit. I think the reason we don't take on more risk is also due to the inflexible sell to buy policy.

The important thing to note is despite their bad buys, they still have a net spend of 7m, because they moved bad buys on quickly. I don't think we would have an issue with moving fringe players on for decent fees considering we sold Brewster for 24m and have sold other fringe players for decent amounts. We also have a great analytics team too so more often than not the players we identify as good turn out good, so that would help with getting wins and avoiding bad buys.

All in all I think if we incorporated a buy and sell policy, where we balanced out outgoings with incomings over a longer term period (3 years or 5 years), as opposed to the current sell to buy policy I feel it would allow more flexibility, while still being what FSG desire in being self sufficient.

[WanderlustRed]

Also in regards to acquiring the players, I feel like we often are one step behind the player's development curve. Like we look to acquire the player after he is well known, not when they are exciting talent but relatively unproven on the big stage, i.e. Haaland with Salzburg, Bellingham with Birmingham City. I think this is because we are unwilling to take on more risk.

I feel like if we took on more risk and got these exciting players at an earlier stage, we would win bigger i.e. getting stars at lower prices instead of being priced out/paying high fees, and for the losses (players that don't turn out good) we can just move them on for a profit. I think the reason we don't take on more risk is also due to the inflexible sell to buy policy.

The important thing to note is despite their bad buys, they still have a net spend of 7m, because they moved bad buys on quickly. I don't think we would have an issue with moving fringe players on for decent fees considering we sold Brewster for 24m and have sold other fringe players for decent amounts. We also have a great analytics team too so more often than not the players we identify as good turn out good, so that would help with getting wins and avoiding bad buys.

All in all I think if we incorporated a buy and sell policy, where we balanced out outgoings with incomings over a longer term period (3 years or 5 years), as opposed to the current sell to buy policy I feel it would allow more flexibility, while still being what FSG desire in being self sufficient.

No idea what you're talking about. Last 3 years and 4 of the last 5, LFC has a negative transfer balance every year. Sell to buy? What are you on about?

So basically you're saying Liverpool should make more bad buys so they can sell them on at a loss. Riiiight.

Players like Haaland choose Salzburg and Dortmund because they can get as many minutes as they can handle there at younger ages. If Haaland had come to Liverpool when he signed with salzburg it would have been as a bench player. Not what he was looking for, nor should he have been. Liverpool has gotten players like Elliott and Gomez as young players on low fees like RM did with Casemiro and Varane.

As for RM's sales...a lot of it was from Castilla products.

[Eeyore]

Wages.

16/17 £208m (57.0% of revenue)
17/18 £264m (58.0%)
18/19 £310m (58.2%)
19/20 £326m (66.5%)
20/21 £314m (64.5%)

(Figures from Deloitte annual reports)

Where I disagree is your suggestion that the renewals don't impact transfer funds because 'wages fell'. That doesn't consider PL bonuses in 19/20 (and CL bonuses in 18/19) - suggesting that the basic wage bill have risen, quite a bit. The £44m leap in wages between 17/18 and 18/19 gives an idea of how significant bonuses could be (the ins and outs the prior summer might account for about half of that, in basic wages - the following season's signings would have seen lower wages, all else being equal). Even without trying to estimate the impact of bonuses (and ignoring the very low £208m in 16/17), they've risen from £264m to maybe £300m, or a fraction under, in 3 years to 20/21. Then 2021/22 and this summer saw the renewals of Alisson, Trent, Gomez, VVD, Robertson, Fabinho, Henderson, Salah, Jota, Elliott (second renewal) and Klopp himself...

Now, I do think we have unspent transfer kitty from the summer (£50m-£60m?). I think there's an argument that we should be able to bring forward money from next summer, if necessary and we have available targets. But I think you're over-emphasising net spend and under-estimating wages as a factor. I think a lot of people do, because net spend is easier to understand - and overall squad management/wages suggests the manager himself, as well as the rest of the recruitment team, have some culpability on how the squad got where it is today. Of course our squad is too old and stale, requiring significant renewal. But I think that's a collective failure, not just an FSG one. I can't fathom - or believe that Klopp would accept - a situation in which FSG are renewing players Klopp wants to sell.

We - Klopp, Edwards, Ward and FSG - built a title challenging, CL winning, title winning squad. We - collectively - have kept that squad together, not selling our best players. You think that's because we wouldn't invest. I suspect it's because that's what Klopp wanted, initially at least. Too loyal perhaps as others have said; or going so close in 18/19, 'one more push' for 19/20, COVID... any intended refresh has been stalled and we're now in some trouble. I don't think FSG are blameless; they could be more risk-averse at times. But equally when fans scream that we need a new midfielder (because we spent £100m+ on three who can't keep fit and renewed the contracts of three others with an average age over 30) I can see why they don't automatically pump in £100m of their own money to buy more.

Anyway... football soon.

We won't have a £50m-£60m surplus transfer kitty because the club have committed to paying for the ARE without an inter-company loan from FSG.

[El Lobo]

Thanks for keeping this ticking along whilst there was a game on lads