Topic: General political discussion Part II

[filopastry]

Proposal is for 12th (Johnson's word on it) via Fixed Terms Parliament Act. Needs Labour approval, or several dozen Labour rebels, which doesn't seem to have been asked for in advance. And, even if given, may not give 86 Labour MPs following the whip on it.

Alternative if that fails is to try and pass by simple majority and temporarily amend the Fixed Terms Parliament Act. Problem with amending bills is there's no way for the government to stop the amendment being amended.

Can they really pass a toxic amendment to the govt with this Parliament, given the current breakown of MPs.

People talk about votes for 16 + 17 year olds, but is there a definite majority for that? is there time to get them on the Electoral Roll for this election? Are they likely to turnout in significant enough numbers to make a significant difference to the result?

[Zeb]

Can they really pass a toxic amendment to the govt with this Parliament, given the current breakown of MPs.

People talk about votes for 16 + 17 year olds, but is there a definite majority for that? is there time to get them on the Electoral Roll for this election? Are they likely to turnout in significant enough numbers to make a significant difference to the result?

They probably could delay it enough trying to decide it that the 12th December date is no longer possible and we're looking post-Christmas for an election. Not certain though, no, not by any means. Hugely depends on Lords too with it. Corbyn's in a bit of bind with this given feelings of PLP, and additional problem of potential 'no deal' come January plus likelihood of Johnson pushing on ahead to try and pass WA right up to the moment Parliament closes.

No idea on reducing voting age. It favours Labour/Greens/Lib Dems (fewer tribal ties than preceding generations but generally socially liberal and economically left of the Tories), and turnout is gradually improving over time with younger voters at the moment and would have some impact on results beyond traditional university cities/towns. Not happening though, as you say.

[Zeb]

Luckily Bercow hasn't selected it for debate.

Aye, SNP was chosen instead. Labour now hate freedom of movement (true), opposes net zero greenhouse gas emissions, supports further social security cuts... etc. etc.

I get the electioneering even if I gripe when spin slides into inaccuracy. Like the traditional Lib Dem bar charts, the Tories' current attempts to claim they passed something in Parliament on Brexit, or Labour's factional/tribal flexibility over the meaning of abstentions.

[ShakaHislop]

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1187275662807187457

[filopastry]

Queens Speech passed, DUP voted for it, is there a financial incentive for them to do that? It is pretty much the only reason I can think of for that vote.

[BoRed]

Proposal is for 12th (Johnson's word on it) via Fixed Terms Parliament Act. Needs Labour approval, or several dozen Labour rebels, which doesn't seem to have been asked for in advance. And, even if given, may not give 86 Labour MPs following the whip on it.

Looks like LDs and SNP will vote against it, so it would take a lot more than 86 Labour MPs.

[Zeb]

Looks like LDs and SNP will vote against it, so it would take a lot more than 86 Labour MPs.

Aye, if they do. SNP are saying 'no, we want a vote of confidence first'. Lib Dems are saying 'maybe'. Still, Labour's MPs decide it regardless. Wonder how much it's influenced by the idea that an EU extension offer could well be shorter if the idea of an election is rejected out of hand?

[Elmo!]

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention...

if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

[TheShanklyGates]

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention...

if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

I somehow doubt the numbers will look like that if they do a poll on the 1st of November...

[Lush is the best medicine...]

I somehow doubt the numbers will look like that if they do a poll on the 1st of November...

yup, probably commissioned by the Tories and manipulated so

[No666]

Sample size?

[Elmo!]

I somehow doubt the numbers will look like that if they do a poll on the 1st of November...

Oh I agree take it with a huge pinch of salt. Hypothetical questions are notoriously unreliable in polling. Its still surprising numbers though in my opinion so thought it worth posting.

Of course also worth noting that Labours numbers haven't really moved at all compared to other polls so it's not any kind of positive reflection on them, it's all down to the Brexit vote splitting.

[ShakaHislop]

Potentially 5 weeks out from a GE and Unites priority is deselecting the MP in Scotland with the biggest Labour majority. McCluskey needs to fuck off.

Labour MP Ian Murray has been reselected to fight Edinburgh South at the next election after being overwhelmingly backed by local members, affiliates and trade unions. Apart from Unite, who tried and failed to have him triggered.

One Edinburgh South member gets in touch: "Len McCluskey and Unite are a busted flush."

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1187461885982957570

[Wabaloolah]

I somehow doubt the numbers will look like that if they do a poll on the 1st of November...

well it will certainly make Frottage  more resurgent and is probably  Labour And Remains  best hope.

Johnson's  Die in a Ditch statement will be used over and over and over by Frottage and it could very well damage Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson just enough to split the Brexit vote

[classycarra]

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1187461885982957570

I guess Mcluskey will have to try and find another spot in scotland to place his 'friend' Karie Murphy, to potentially get caught committing electoral fraud again.

She's also made news (more directly) this evening for suggesting Corbyn would visit Orkney by train

[The Gulleysucker]

...She's also made news (more directly) this evening for suggesting Corbyn would visit Orkney by train

You can get a train from Euston to Thurso, it's about 12 hours, and then a taxi to the ferry at Scrabster to pop over to Stromness.

[TepidT2O]

Would he find a seat?

[filopastry]

Kevin Maguire@Kevin_Maguire 2m

Labour whips threatening to resign after Nick Brown agreed with Corbyn the party's MPs would abstain in Johnson's election vote then Jezza recorded a film saying he still wanted one and the leader's office briefed the position was provisional and could change. Chaos.

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall 4m

There is much conflict about the whips' position.

For example, I've been told that the decision to abstain on Monday (as per whip note) is "still live". That it's not set in stone.

However, whips are furious about it all.

They say whips position was established with JC and Chief Whip. Only for JC to appear on TV and say it hadn't been decided.

This is a conflict which goes beyond Brexit and is if anything a reawakening of the fights of 2015/16

One MP told me: "They [leadership] know the project is dying and they see an election as a way of saving it."

Many MPs still convinced JC is disaster and don't want to oblige.

Remember many Lab MPs were never that exercised about Brexit (and others who were have given up/resigned to it) but they were (and are) exercised about Corbyn. Some now believe he is withering and if they wait longer, they can be rid of him.

What a mess.

And I actually agree that Corbyn might not stay for the full term of this Parliament in the unlikely event it gets that far, but am not convinced that Labour will change direction with the next leader anyway, that is where the party is now, it is the PLP who are out of step with the rest of the party, that is how successful the takeover since 2015 has been

[Elmo!]

Would he find a seat?

He'd stand in the Isles.

[The Gulleysucker]

He'd stand in the Isles.

Very good.

[Robinred]

You can get a train from Euston to Thurso, it's about 12 hours, and then a taxi to the ferry at Scrabster to pop over to Stromness.

Chuckling here, remembering the wonderfully witty little book of Douglas Adams, “The meaning of Liff”, where evocatively named, but sparsely populated places were ransacked so the evocative name could be purloined for a new purpose - namely something we all recognise but which doesn’t have a name.

Scrabster, I seem to recall, was a small aggressive dog that tried to make love to your leg at a dinner party😆

[TepidT2O]

He'd stand in the Isles.

[Alan_X]

...but the majority of you lap up any shit on Corbyn and the Labour party that you are spoon fed by a virulent right wing media and could be said in fact to be collectively led by the nose.

Come on mate. You've been pulled up on this before. No one on here reads the 'virulent right-wing media'.

My opinions on Corbyn were largely based on his writing for the Morning Star.

[Alan_X]

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention...

if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

So Labour doesn't really improve but the Brexit vote gets split again.

[Wabaloolah]

To be perfectly honest, I've never felt this switched off by a potential election.

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is a regurgitated turd but still I have no great feeling about a Corbyn led Labour government, which I have no doubt would be an unmitigated disaster both for the party and for the country.

The Lib Dems are a sheep in wolf's clothing led by a leader who helped instigate the most deadly set of policies this country has ever seen.

I will vote Labour as my MP has helped me out recently with the campaign to save our local Leisure Centre.

The only good thing that will come out of the election is that it will see the back of Corbyn but God knows where the country will be in 5 years time if the Tories were to win a majority

[Wabaloolah]

So Labour doesn't really improve but the Brexit vote gets split again.

it's the only chance of avoiding a Johnson majority I think and it would probably  mean the end of Brexit too

[TepidT2O]

it's the only chance of avoiding a Johnson majority I think and it would probably  mean the end of Brexit too

Hmmm.. a Brexit Tory pact might still see labour destroyed though..

I might vote raving looney to be honest.

[filopastry]

So Labour doesn't really improve but the Brexit vote gets split again.

We will see how it actually tracks now that it is actually happening, my gut feeling is that Johnson's posturing bullshit will stop the bleeding of the Tory vote being anything like as big as that poll predicts.

[oldfordie]

What a mess.

And I actually agree that Corbyn might not stay for the full term of this Parliament in the unlikely event it gets that far, but am not convinced that Labour will change direction with the next leader anyway, that is where the party is now, it is the PLP who are out of step with the rest of the party, that is how successful the takeover since 2015 has been

Yeah, I think Burgons answer to Kate Burleys questions on a election the other day was very revealing. Burley tells him " Polls say you won't win." Burgon replies " The Polls said we wouldn't win last time"
I suppose it depends on what your priorities are, did Burgon look at the last election as a victory for Corbyns Labour. am sure many of Corbyns supporters did, he did better than expected so he can stay on as leader. Tories may have won the election but it's a victory for Corbyn.
The same things happening again, the PLP are out of step with the rest of the party. the 2015 take over will carry on no matter what happens, it will be spun, blame will be put on the PLP.

[classycarra]

The Lib Dems are a sheep in wolf's clothing

Yet another person bigging up the Lib Dems in here..

[leroy]

What is it about Lib Dems that gets some peoples blood flowing

Happy to be corrected but isn't this the party that broke election promises and enabled austerity after entering into a coalition with the Tories less than a decade ago?

If I was a Brit I probably wouldn't be fond of them either.

[OOS]

I think the long nights probably reduce the advantage of Labour's ground game a bit, you just have less time to speak to people on the doorstep in a shortish election campaign.

All depends on the EU's response anyway

I'd hate to be knocking on doors in this political climate for Labour. Angry Brexiters probably thinking your a remainer and angry remainers fed up of the fence sitting.  and then you've got to tell them, you are campaigning for Brexit but a second referendum.

[KillieRed]

Hmmm.. a Brexit Tory pact might still see labour destroyed though..

I might vote raving looney to be honest.

So you`ll just be picking one of the candidates at random on your ballot?

[classycarra]

Happy to be corrected but isn't this the party that broke election promises and enabled austerity after entering into a coalition with the Tories less than a decade ago?

If I was a Brit I probably wouldn't be fond of them either.

I think you missed my point. Something about the Lib Dems had a couple of people so incensed that they failed to comprehend what they were reading.

Geoff somehow thought my correction of his strange and clearly wrong point was party political. He said that it was cynical from the Lib Dems to have a Remain policy after the referendum, despite that being their policy before the referendum.

[Mutton Geoff]

Come on mate. You've been pulled up on this before. No one on here reads the 'virulent right-wing media'.

My opinions on Corbyn were largely based on his writing for the Morning Star.

Yeah as if you ever read the Morning Star

funny how the great and good liberal minded in here are all to happy to quote and repeat them parrot fashion 24/7 and wallow in any media shit thrown at the Labour party,  when johnson wins it will be down to that sort of mindset as much as the leadership but you know that,  and i would suggest some would be happy for a tory win and all the shit that will bring with it,  if it in their hopes it could get rid of Corbyn.

They obviously must believe in a very selective form of socialism and think only their idea of socialism is the correct one and they are the reason i hardly post anymore.

As for my dislike of the Libdems and the people in here who swallow their shit it is simply the vlagrant opportunism being employed by the Libdems, its a sham a lie they cannot be trusted just like when they had the chance to do some good in the coalition they abandoned all their principles and simply pocketed their minesterial money and did what the Tories told them to do, they are as responsible for Austerity and the evil implementation of U.C.and the piecemeal selling off of the NHS as the Tory party:

[clinical]

Corbyn and Mcdonnell want to drop inheritance tax threshold to £100k and not increase the % for higher values, ie the rich.

Are they that stupid? Or have they decided to bring in a new policy to affect the poorest families and kids the most? What am I missing here.

[Circa1892]

Corbyn and Mcdonnell want to drop inheritance tax threshold to £100k and not increase the % for higher values, ie the rich.

Are they that stupid? Or have they decided to bring in a new policy to affect the poorest families and kids the most? What am I missing here.

It'd go nicely with making HE free. A massive giveaway to people who can afford it at the expense of those who can't.

[Sangria]

Yeah as if you ever read the Morning Star

funny how the great and good liberal minded in here are all to happy to quote and repeat them parrot fashion 24/7 and wallow in any media shit thrown at the Labour party,  when johnson wins it will be down to that sort of mindset as much as the leadership but you know that,  and i would suggest some would be happy for a tory win and all the shit that will bring with it,  if it in their hopes it could get rid of Corbyn.

They obviously must believe in a very selective form of socialism and think only their idea of socialism is the correct one and they are the reason i hardly post anymore.

As for my dislike of the Libdems and the people in here who swallow their shit it is simply the vlagrant opportunism being employed by the Libdems, its a sham a lie they cannot be trusted just like when they had the chance to do some good in the coalition they abandoned all their principles and simply pocketed their minesterial money and did what the Tories told them to do, they are as responsible for Austerity and the evil implementation of U.C.and the piecemeal selling off of the NHS as the Tory party:

For some of us, Corbyn sold us out when he came out for Brexit in 2016. That has led to all the chaos since, and the chaos is preferable to the shitshow that Brexit enacted would be. You can point to what the Lib Dems did wrong. Brexit will be all that, plus much, much more. That's what Corbyn sides with. All Labour has to do is to drop Corbyn and replace him with someone competent and sane, in time for us to return to the Labour fold. If Labour doesn't do so in time to stop Brexit, they'll have lost us forever. Or at least until we are in the EU again.

[classycarra]

Yeah as if you ever read the Morning Star

funny how the great and good liberal minded in here are all to happy to quote and repeat them parrot fashion 24/7 and wallow in any media shit thrown at the Labour party,  when johnson wins it will be down to that sort of mindset as much as the leadership but you know that,  and i would suggest some would be happy for a tory win and all the shit that will bring with it,  if it in their hopes it could get rid of Corbyn.

You don't half make some weird claims when you're angry with RAWK, Geoff.

People are angry with Corbyn because they feel he is gifting Johnson the next election.

[clinical]

It'd go nicely with making HE free. A massive giveaway to people who can afford it at the expense of those who can't.

They are absolutely brain dead. Surely they realise doing that would impact the poor/lower middle class more than anyone else. Idiots. Labour is dead as far as I'm concerned. The tories have always been dead to me. So I guess it's greens or lib dem for me.