Topic: New Nerve Agent Attack in UK

[TepidT2O]

Amateur nature?

They used the most lethal nerve agent known to man.  There is no single way that you could just pinch this off the shelf without authority.

They were caught outside the building that analyses it with equipment to break in.

If they were roughed agents they would be dead by now

[Elmo!]

Sorry but that is rubbish,had they done it off their own back then they would not have returned to Russia & that is even ignoring that they would not have been able to get the agent without serious backing.

To be fair, the poster argued that it might not have come from the top, not that they did it off their own back.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Sorry but that is rubbish,had they done it off their own back then they would not have returned to Russia & that is even ignoring that they would not have been able to get the agent without serious backing.

Like I stated, I am not suggesting they did it off their own back. It would most likely be orders from someone high enough up to orchestrate it. It doesn't necessarily mean it was under direct orders from Putin or that Putin even knew it was going to happen. We just don't know the internal power politics of the Russian state apparatus, and we are very unlikely to find out.

Mainly I am arguing that we cannot say with any absolute certainty where the order came from. We just don't have enough information on the workings of the Russian regime to make definitive claims. All we can do really is speculate.

And my other point is that Putin likes to maintain that sort of ambiguity because it is useful for him. There is no way he would ever come out and publicly and directly say on the international stage that he doesn't have full control over his own state apparatus, if that is indeed the case.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Nobody is Russia would dare do something like this without the nod from Putin,they could be as high up as his number 2 and not even he would dare.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Nobody is Russia would dare do something like this without the nod from Putin,they could be as high up as his number 2 and not even he would dare.

Again we just don't know. I am sure Putin runs a tight-ship, but nor is this North Korea. Russia is a massive, federalised oligarchy with often oversized upper echelons (be it military, intelligence, police, Gazprom etc), many of whom hold private interests (financial or otherwise) who don't always necessarily tow the same lines. Putin is a dictator who wields a massive amount of power, but it doesn't necessarily mean he maintains absolute full control of the entire state. The amount of ex-intelligence and once-favoured oligarchs who end up in exile is testament to that.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Any oligarch who doesn't toe the line finds themself dead or broke and in jail.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Any oligarch who doesn't toe the line finds themself dead or broke and in jail.

Maybe. Or in exile. But the inner-workings of his intelligence service (which will be, if it isn't Putin, the most likely source of a non-executive order)? If you do know, I would like to know what makes you so sure.

Even if Putin does have opponents bumped off, this isn't a dragged-off-in-the-middle-of-the-night-never-to-be-seen-again scenario, a la N. Korea. Those days ended with the USSR.  Even in Russia vague pretences have to be kept up.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Maybe. Or in exile. But the inner-workings of his intelligence service (which will be, if it isn't Putin, the most likely source of a non-executive order)? If you do know, I would like to know what makes you so sure.

None of us know for certain,we can only go by what Putin has done in the past & how he reacts to any form of insubordination from his oligarch and any Russian who speaks out against him.

He is the ultimate mob boss.

Even if Putin does have opponents bumped off, this isn't a dragged-off-in-the-middle-of-the-night-never-to-be-seen-again scenario, a la N. Korea. Those days ended with the USSR.  Even in Russia vague pretences have to be kept up.

 

[Yorkykopite]

Why on earth would anyone expect the Putin regime to be anything but chaotic? Look at the bloody mess they are leaving in Syria or the stupidity of the ‘intervention’ in eastern Ukraine (drunk soldiers shooting down civilian planes). Look at the grotesque way they deal with their own dissidents. Look at their economy which is once again going seriously down the tubes with billions of tax-roubles spunked on vanity projects or diverted into Swiss bank accounts.

The hallmark of Putinism is ineptitude and crack handedess. The Salisbury attack was par for the course.

[Peabee]

All clear apparently .  Thank goodness

It was a couple, Paul and Violet, out for dinner ordering dessert. She thought he wanted vanilla cheesecake, and he said “No, Vi, choc...”.  All a misunderstanding.

One for the bad jokes thread.

[kavah]

I think the parallels with Litvinenko poisoning are undeniable, they've just upped the game by using an even more obviously Russian poison. The agents that are sent out to do this are extremely sloppy and under-trained, their master simply doesn't give a shit, it's all part of the message.

And as to who is responsible; Alexander Litvinenko was interviewed during his last days

... I have no doubt who wanted it, and I often receive threats from these people. This was done … I have no doubt whatsoever that this was done by the Russian Secret Services. Having knowledge of the system I know that the order about such a killing of a citizen of another country on its territory, especially if it is something to do with Great Britain, could have been given by only one person. ...the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. And if ... you of course know, while he’s still president, you won’t be able to prosecute him as the main person who gave that order, because he is the president of a huge country crammed with nuclear, chemical and bacteriological weapons.


[the article continues after Litvinenko's account with a description of the disgusting aftermath of using such amateur assassins in such a shameless fashion. The assassins and innocent bar staff were all contaminated]


...Polonium was found inside the dishwasher, on the floor, till, a coffee strainer handle. There were traces on bottles of Martini and Tia Maria behind the bar, the ice-cream scoop, a chopping board. It turned up on chairs – with large alpha radiation readings from where the three Russians sat – and the piano stool. Whoever sent Lugovoi and Kovtun to London must have known of the risks to others. Apparently they didn’t care.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/19/alexander-litvinenko-the-man-who-solved-his-own-murder

[Peabee]

The story about the couple in Prezzo the other day is odd. They’re a couple that live in London. He’s due for trial on drugs charges (dealing) and she (his wife) is Russian. She claims she was a honeytrap spy for Mossad, and they were fleeing the country, via Salisbury (?), to avoid being assassinated by Putin.

It sounds like some crazy story they’ve invented to get the husband out of his drugs charges or to sell a ‘story’.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/19/salisburys-saga-the-spy-the-supermodel-the-strychnine-and-thats-just-the-sub-plot

[Qston]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45591103

Good to hear that even russians are laughing at the pair of dickheads

[Indomitable_Carp]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45591103

Good to hear that even russians are laughing at the pair of dickheads

Some of the comments in that article would seem to support the notion that it was a bungled attack by the GRU acting on their own steam:

His own sources suggest the attack on Sergei Skripal, a GRU officer-turned-traitor, was a bungled attempt to impress President Putin by an agency pushing for more influence and power.

Mr Baunov thinks the nerve agent attack was an attempt to send a "silent signal" to any Russians contemplating betrayal. He believes the intelligence community has been unnerved by a surge in recruitment approaches by Western agencies, in a climate of renewed hostility.

Either way it is good to see that what I can only assume was meant to be a mocking response has backfired.

[classycarra]

Either way it is good to see that what I can only assume was meant to be a mocking response has backfired.

How has it backfired?

The intended audience was back home. The target is to make ordinary russians fear challenging the dictator of their kleptocracy, I don't think that's backfired. Just look at the brazen/contemptuous 'fuck you' put out over state propaganda channels, which utterly insults the intelligence of the russian people.

Good to see russians taking the piss, but I think it'll take a lot more than this for it to have backfired. People still fear for their life there

Do think this whole 'bungling amateurs' line is exactly what the state wants people to go along with though.

[Alan_X]

I think it is precisely the amatuer nature of the attack and response that makes me think it may not have been an order from the top. The Alexander Litvinenko attack, which would have had more obivous motives of a centralised order, was not handled in quiet so an amateurish way. It wouldn't have to be those two acting on their own initiative, they could well have been acting under orders, even if not Putin's orders. And he may not have had them disappeared because he's happy to have them take the piss.
 
Would Putin watch sanctions get levied as a result? I wouldn't put it past him if it allowed him to maintain a semblence of absolute control, meanwhile maintaining enough doubt as to his absolute control. I think it plays well for Putin and his inner circle to promote the international uncertainty and mystic that surrounds the Russian regime. The sanctions are damaging, but they are not so damaging that they have drastically affected his popularity, and aren't so drastic that him and his cronies can't continue lining their pockets. It could well be that in Putins mind, it would be more damaging internationally (and possibly domestically) to publicly admit that he doesn't have full control over his state appartus.

Or maybe you are right, maybe it was a bungled order from the top. Or maybe even it was an order from the top that they were happy to bungle just to take the piss and show they can get away with it. Either way, it is a similar outcome. I don't think it will phase Putin too much.

What was amateur about it?

False identities and passports
They got in and out of the country without any problem
They were carrying a military grade nerve agent (this one on its own is evidence that it had high level authorisation)
The method of delivery had clearly been worked out by specialists back in Russia,

The assassination attempt failed but that doesn't make it amateurish. I doubt the Russians had many 'dry runs' on live subjects to gureanatee success. 

And it seems to me that the TV appearance was for domestic consumption and also a massive 'fuck you' to the UK government. We know that Russia specialises in trolling and that performance was for the lulz...

[classycarra]

What was amateur about it?

Ironically enough the poster described the Litvinenko murder as being more professional. Their movements being tracked from the trace they left all around central London, including their preferred strip club, really paint the picture of pros.

Fair to say they haven't read anything about the investigation, and is basing this conclusion on a binary dead/not dead measure

[Alan_X]

Ironically enough the poster described the Litvinenko murder as being more professional. Their movements being tracked from the trace they left all around central London, including their preferred strip club, really paint the picture of pros.

Fair to say they haven't read anything about the investigation, and is basing this conclusion on a binary dead/not dead measure

It's also the twitter sphere conspiracy go-to response for people desperate to absolve Putin of responsibility.

[AndyInVA]

There was a really good podcast on this from a guy at the New York Times. Podcast is called 'The Daily'.

The premise to the assassination attempt is that all former spies had spied against the Soviet were basically fair game.

It seems that the target had spied against Russia for the West and had settled in UK after some spy swap years ago. It seems it was traditional etiquette amongst former cold war countries that once a spy was swopped they were considered safe.

The journalist suggests that anyone who spied against the country that he was the former KGB chief of, is no longer to be considered safe.

[Indomitable_Carp]

It's also the twitter sphere conspiracy go-to response for people desperate to absolve Putin of responsibility.

Not really. Clearly I'm not an expert on either case. And neither are any of you.

I am more challenging the knee-jerk narrative that absolutely everything that emanates from Russia is the direct work of Putin, like he holds the same totalitarian iron-grip as Stalin. Short of dragging people off to gulags en-masse, that kind of grip just isn't possible today. Posters here are 100% convinced that this order came straight from the top, as if they have inside knowledge of the inner-workings of the Putin regime.

I was merely pointing out that that may not always be the case. In fact if you look at the comments from the BBC article interviewing the ex-FSG agent (now presumably in exile), he speculated that it was the work of someone from inside the intelligence agency working on their own initiative in an attempt to impress Putin.

Clearly Putin is a horrible c*nt, who runs a scary regime for anyone who gets on the wrong side of it. But nor is this the Soviet Union. The 90's were a crazy time in Russia with a lot of different people vying for wealth and power, whether that be oligarchs, the mafia, militias and guerrillas, ex-soviet government, militaery and intelligence officials, independence movements and whoever else. Putin has done a good job of manoeuvring himself to the top and reigning these elements into his sphere of influence, and it takes a brave soul to anyone who challenges him. But it is doubtful he has total control of all of these elements. Trying to bump off exiled ex-intelligence agents doesn't neccesarily come under the bannner of challenging Putin.

Now like I said, whether or not the order came straight from the top doesn't really matter. Putin is still harbouring these suspects, and he hasn't done anything to allay the fears of the international community, so in one way or other he is still culpable. I just don't think simplistic narratives over Russia do anyone any good. I didn't expect comments of that nature to be so controversial.

[The Gulleysucker]

There is a flaw, in that the argument you are employing is exactly the same as the thoroughly discredited historian and Hitler fanboy Irving employed in order to attempt to absolve Hitler from any involvement and hence complicity in the Nazi "Final Solution", the absence of any direct written order from him.

I doubt very much if Putin has ever given a direct written order to assassinate anyone or took part in any planning of such activities, all he would have to say is a wafty Ensure all traitors to Mother Russia are punished and make all these problems go away and his myrmidons would willingly do his bidding.

I've read that Stalin used an expression along the lines of "send them to a long sleep", I expect Putin employs a similar euphemism.

[Red Beret]

There's a difference between declaring policy and enacting it.

"Get rid of them, I don't care how."

[Broad Spectrum]

I remember the discussions in the immediate aftermath of the attack, with some suggesting this may have been ordered by Putin's closest pals within the Kremlin without consulting him first in a rogue act of defiance. Although this is unlikely, for me it is even more frightening that his closest aids in government may be able to authorise such acts which could in theory lead to direct conflict with other nations. Either way, this came from the Kremlin end of story.

I've read that Stalin used an expression along the lines of "send them to a long sleep", I expect Putin employs a similar euphemism.

I imagine that's probably how he agreed to it.

[Yorkykopite]

Isn’t it a fundamental characteristic of all autocratic regimes that when things go wrong - as they always do - the default position is to say “if only Stalin/Hitler/Musso knew.” The leader is always spared criticism and always avoids the blame. This isn’t just because of lese majeste and the rational fear of being punished for criticising the Beloved Leader, but stems from the need to keep the illusion alive. The illusion being that Beloved Leader represents the purity of the whole enterprise and must remain infallible.

Putin heads an authoritarian regime, rather than an autocratic one, but the cult around him (generated by some people here, as well as in Russia) certainly has elements more normally seen in dictatorships. For these people Putin can never be tarnished. He’s as incapable of committing a tactical error as he is a moral one.

[Alan_X]

Not really. Clearly I'm not an expert on either case. And neither are any of you.

I am more challenging the knee-jerk narrative that absolutely everything that emanates from Russia is the direct work of Putin, like he holds the same totalitarian iron-grip as Stalin. Short of dragging people off to gulags en-masse, that kind of grip just isn't possible today. Posters here are 100% convinced that this order came straight from the top, as if they have inside knowledge of the inner-workings of the Putin regime.

I was merely pointing out that that may not always be the case. In fact if you look at the comments from the BBC article interviewing the ex-FSG agent (now presumably in exile), he speculated that it was the work of someone from inside the intelligence agency working on their own initiative in an attempt to impress Putin.

Clearly Putin is a horrible c*nt, who runs a scary regime for anyone who gets on the wrong side of it. But nor is this the Soviet Union. The 90's were a crazy time in Russia with a lot of different people vying for wealth and power, whether that be oligarchs, the mafia, militias and guerrillas, ex-soviet government, militaery and intelligence officials, independence movements and whoever else. Putin has done a good job of manoeuvring himself to the top and reigning these elements into his sphere of influence, and it takes a brave soul to anyone who challenges him. But it is doubtful he has total control of all of these elements. Trying to bump off exiled ex-intelligence agents doesn't neccesarily come under the bannner of challenging Putin.

Now like I said, whether or not the order came straight from the top doesn't really matter. Putin is still harbouring these suspects, and he hasn't done anything to allay the fears of the international community, so in one way or other he is still culpable. I just don't think simplistic narratives over Russia do anyone any good. I didn't expect comments of that nature to be so controversial.

If this was a one-off you might have a case. It's not. Putin has his enemies and critics jailed, beaten up and murdered. If the reasoning is that 'rogue elements' decided to murder someone on their own initiative to impress Putin, it still makes Putin directly culpable because murder is seen as normal and likely to please Vlad.

[So… Howard Philips]

If this was a one-off you might have a case. It's not. Putin has his enemies and critics jailed, beaten up and murdered. If the reasoning is that 'rogue elements' decided to murder someone on their own initiative to impress Putin, it still makes Putin directly culpable because murder is seen as normal and likely to please Vlad.

Or, in criminal law terms, similar fact evidence.

He may not have been culpable for the first murder but he is certainly in a position to put a stop to further murders.

[The Gulleysucker]

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/26/skripal-suspect-boshirov-identified-gru-colonel-anatoliy-chepiga/

[Yorkykopite]

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/26/skripal-suspect-boshirov-identified-gru-colonel-anatoliy-chepiga/

Ok, he’s had a past as a highly decorated Russian spy and takes the rank of Colonel. So what? Me and Jeremy and the ex-ambassador for Timbuctoo still need to see incontrovertible evidence that he wasn’t in Salisbury just sightseeing with his boyfriend.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Ok, he’s had a past as a highly decorated Russian spy and takes the rank of Colonel. So what? Me and Jeremy and the ex-ambassador for Timbuctoo still need to see incontrovertible evidence that he wasn’t in Salisbury just sightseeing with his boyfriend.

Well he would never have a perfume bottle for starters & it is beyond the pale for the UK gov to claim otherwise and in doing so the UK gov and its state run media have put two 100% not gay,not even glanced at another guys junk at the urinal,1000% not gay as they don't even find ladies underwear attractive,our UK gov have shamed us and put those two spire lovers (not gay just like spires in a non gay way) lives at risk.

[So… Howard Philips]

Isn’t it a fundamental characteristic of all autocratic regimes that when things go wrong - as they always do - the default position is to say “if only Stalin/Hitler/Musso knew.” The leader is always spared criticism and always avoids the blame. This isn’t just because of lese majeste and the rational fear of being punished for criticising the Beloved Leader, but stems from the need to keep the illusion alive. The illusion being that Beloved Leader represents the purity of the whole enterprise and must remain infallible.

Putin heads an authoritarian regime, rather than an autocratic one, but the cult around him (generated by some people here, as well as in Russia) certainly has elements more normally seen in dictatorships. For these people Putin can never be tarnished. He’s as incapable of committing a tactical error as he is a moral one.

It's very much a "Who will rid me of this troublesome priest" type regime.

[CraigDS]

Well he would never have a perfume bottle for starters & it is beyond the pale for the UK gov to claim otherwise and in doing so the UK gov and its state run media have put two 100% not gay,not even glanced at another guys junk at the urinal,1000% not gay as they don't even find ladies underwear attractive,our UK gov have shamed us and put those two spire lovers (not gay just like spires in a non gay way) lives at risk.

Spires are kinda phallic though. Just sayin.

[kavah]

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/26/skripal-suspect-boshirov-identified-gru-colonel-anatoliy-chepiga/

Great journalism.

 Col Anatoliy Chepiga, a highly-decorated officer in the Russian military intelligence and elite Spetsnaz veteran.

Putin even met him when he was awarded the Hero medal

to send a highly decorated colonel back to a field job would be highly extraordinary, and would imply that “the job was ordered at the highest level.”

[Yorkykopite]

I notice that Craig Murray (the loony tune ex-ambassador) is now suggesting that there’s something fishy about the photographs of Chepiga and that the sports nutritionist and lover of Salisbury Cathedral isn’t Chepiga at all. He’s also saying that we should be concentrating on an Israeli Terrorist attack on the Labour Party conference.

Strange times.

[oldfordie]

Great journalism.

 Col Anatoliy Chepiga, a highly-decorated officer in the Russian military intelligence and elite Spetsnaz veteran.

Putin even met him when he was awarded the Hero medal

to send a highly decorated colonel back to a field job would be highly extraordinary, and would imply that “the job was ordered at the highest level.”

I knew Spetsnaz standards had fallen dramatically but I didn't realize just how bad. I still find it hard to believe how they could have handled it so badly. why did they both have to fly from Moscow together, why did they both have to go to Salisbury to reconnoitre the target, why did they both have to go and and contaminate the door, why did they both fly straight off to Moscow together.
They've made absolutely no effort to cover their tracks or make it as hard as possible for our intelligence services to connect Russia to the attack.

[So… Howard Philips]

I knew Spetsnaz standards had fallen dramatically but I didn't realize just how bad. I still find it hard to believe how they could have handled it so badly. why did they both have to fly from Moscow together, why did they both have to go to Salisbury to reconnoitre the target, why did they both have to go and and contaminate the door, why did they both fly straight off to Moscow together.
They've made absolutely no effort to cover their tracks or make it as hard as possible for our intelligence services to connect Russia to the attack.

Incompetent or simply sticking two fingers up to the British?

[oldfordie]

Incompetent or simply sticking two fingers up to the British?

Incompetency beyond belief, sticking two fingers up to the British for Ukraine as well as killing a traitor.

[Indomitable_Carp]

to send a highly decorated colonel back to a field job would be highly extraordinary, and would imply that “the job was ordered at the highest level.”

I'd go with that.

What a farce.

[Broad Spectrum]

Vladimir Putin calls Sergei Skripal a scumbag and a traitor

[So… Howard Philips]

Vladimir Putin calls Sergei Skripal a scumbag and a traitor

But still a living traitor and scumbag.

[classycarra]

But still a living traitor and scumbag.

And more resilient, less thin skinned and taller than short-man-syndromes' Putin