Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17

[Nessy76]

Biggest takeaway from showing LY's table is that none of the teams finished where they stood at after the same amount of games.  Gotta take it all with a pinch of salt but it does look good for us so far!  Just need to keep the momentum going.

Yes, at this point last season it was beginning to look like a two horse race between the Manchester clubs. As we all know, that's not how it turned out. We're still in the foothills of the season and everything is up for grabs.

There are still 93 points available to every team in the league. It's a common observation that "we'll know more after" any given incident, the next game, the end of the month, Christmas, the next big game between sides at the top, but the truth is that the shape of the season unfolds game by game, you can never predict the twists and turns ahead, you can just see where everyone lies at the moment.

That's something I love about the APLT, it makes no predictions but instead offers a benchmark to measure against at any time. So far, so good. If we want to challenge for the title we have done exactly what you would need to, but there's a lot of football still to be played.

[Brian Blessed]

I took a look at Leicester last year. After seven they were fifth in the APLT on -5. It was week 7 when they're form really picked up, and they played to par for the next seven weeks.

[MerseysideBrum]

Preview for this weekend(+monday) please?

[Hij]

Preview for this weekend(+monday) please?

If Man United beat us the graph looks like an absolute murder scene. So us beating them is all that matters mate

Edit: Fairly certain most other teams have home games, so they need to win to keep their line level, else they'll drop 2 or 3 points on the graph.

Chelsea vs Leicester - is a par three for Chelsea and a par one for Leicester if we are keeping Leicester in the race which is the early game at 12:30.
Arsenal par 3 vs Swansea at home at 3pm.
Man City have Everton at home in another par 3 at 3pm.
Spurs have to travel to West Brom away in another par 3- but an away game for what it's worth- again at Saturday 3pm.

^^ So if any of the teams (bar Leicester) fail to win, it's -2 for a draw and -3 for a loss. They maintain their line with a win, they can only match 0 but that's obviously a good result. A Leicester win = +2, Draw = 0 and loss = -1 for them, but they sit 12th and could well be removed from the table.

We're the only team with a par 3 home game (bar Chelsea) that is against another team that has a par 1 opportunity with a chance to gain points - which is the Mancs.

Which again, like I've said here, and on whats app, and on twitter and on various threads, means a win is really important here. A win  means we can stick Man United down a point, and be level during the game week no matter what Arsenal, City, Spurs and Chelsea do and stay above the title winning line. A Leicester win gives them 2 points if that matters at this stage. Any win against the Mancs, is worth just as much as an Arsenal win vs Swansea, City vs Everton or Chelsea vs Leicester - it's just a home win for this model afterall.

If we lose, then we lose 3 points on this, and the Mancs gain 2 points which as I'm sure you understand is a 5 point swing and pretty dramatic and means I'll be on the vodka for the rest of the week. A draw would see us drop 2 points and Man United stay on their current total.

Basically, if we win, we've got through the one gameweek where everyone is expected to win, and got one of our hardest par 3's out the way. We stay on +3 above title winning form and the Mancs drop yet another point on this. E.G If we win on Monday, you should join me on the party bus H. 

I'm sure Nessy could do better but that's the basics

[Hij]

Finally, should Man United beat us, for what it's worth, we would still remain 3 points ahead of them in this table even though we would have lost. Although we would have played 4 par 1 games so far and they would have played only 2 (us being their second). So we'd be three points ahead in this, level in the real table, but they would have two more par 1's over the season to gain ground in this table.

After Man United, we have three more Par 3 games, so we have to be perfect for the next four games else we will drop points in the table. After the next four games we'll have another chance to gain points vs Southampton away. They have Chelsea and Swansea away in the next four, which are chances to gain ground, although obviously the whole idea of the model is that Chelsea/Swansea away should be difficult games.

Long story short, basically, just beat these twats and start aiming for the stars by making sure we start picking up 3 points in the par 3 games we're expected to win via the model against West Brom at Home, Palace Away and Watford at Home

I keep talking about the title, but I'm always a bit head in the clouds. If we finish above the Mancs, I think we have a great chance of getting 4th (and a real chance to aim higher), so my main concern is making sure in the game at Anfield we don't allow them any points and if we can, we push them back a point. Obviously beating them means we keep them 3 points behind and extend our lead to 3 with them having a game at Chelsea away (in the real table).

It's only the 8th game and people are welcome to disagree with me as all the league games are important, but I think we can do real damage to them and Jose with a win in this one, just as they can to us if they manage to win, it's gonna be an interesting game.

[xosder]

Finally, should Man United beat us, for what it's worth, we would still remain 3 points ahead of them in this table even though we would have lost.

I believe we stay 4 points above them since they can only get to -4 with a win and we would be on 0 with a loss.  With that said, come Tuesday morning, I expect a 10 point lead over them in the APLT.

[Nessy76]

If Man United beat us the graph looks like an absolute murder scene. So us beating them is all that matters mate

Edit: Fairly certain most other teams have home games, so they need to win to keep their line level, else they'll drop 2 or 3 points on the graph.

Chelsea vs Leicester - is a par three for Chelsea and a par one for Leicester if we are keeping Leicester in the race which is the early game at 12:30.
Arsenal par 3 vs Swansea at home at 3pm.
Man City have Everton at home in another par 3 at 3pm.
Spurs have to travel to West Brom away in another par 3- but an away game for what it's worth- again at Saturday 3pm.

^^ So if any of the teams (bar Leicester) fail to win, it's -2 for a draw and -3 for a loss. They maintain their line with a win, they can only match 0 but that's obviously a good result. A Leicester win = +2, Draw = 0 and loss = -1 for them, but they sit 12th and could well be removed from the table.

We're the only team with a par 3 home game (bar Chelsea) that is against another team that has a par 1 opportunity with a chance to gain points - which is the Mancs.

Which again, like I've said here, and on whats app, and on twitter and on various threads, means a win is really important here. A win  means we can stick Man United down a point, and be level during the game week no matter what Arsenal, City, Spurs and Chelsea do and stay above the title winning line. A Leicester win gives them 2 points if that matters at this stage. Any win against the Mancs, is worth just as much as an Arsenal win vs Swansea, City vs Everton or Chelsea vs Leicester - it's just a home win for this model afterall.

If we lose, then we lose 3 points on this, and the Mancs gain 2 points which as I'm sure you understand is a 5 point swing and pretty dramatic and means I'll be on the vodka for the rest of the week. A draw would see us drop 2 points and Man United stay on their current total.

Basically, if we win, we've got through the one gameweek where everyone is expected to win, and got one of our hardest par 3's out the way. We stay on +3 above title winning form and the Mancs drop yet another point on this. E.G If we win on Monday, you should join me on the party bus H. 

I'm sure Nessy could do better but that's the basics

Thanks mate. Got a ton of work this week so no preview but I get to eat and stuff.

[MerseysideBrum]

If Man United beat us the graph looks like an absolute murder scene. So us beating them is all that matters mate

Edit: Fairly certain most other teams have home games, so they need to win to keep their line level, else they'll drop 2 or 3 points on the graph.

Chelsea vs Leicester - is a par three for Chelsea and a par one for Leicester if we are keeping Leicester in the race which is the early game at 12:30.
Arsenal par 3 vs Swansea at home at 3pm.
Man City have Everton at home in another par 3 at 3pm.
Spurs have to travel to West Brom away in another par 3- but an away game for what it's worth- again at Saturday 3pm.

^^ So if any of the teams (bar Leicester) fail to win, it's -2 for a draw and -3 for a loss. They maintain their line with a win, they can only match 0 but that's obviously a good result. A Leicester win = +2, Draw = 0 and loss = -1 for them, but they sit 12th and could well be removed from the table.

We're the only team with a par 3 home game (bar Chelsea) that is against another team that has a par 1 opportunity with a chance to gain points - which is the Mancs.

Which again, like I've said here, and on whats app, and on twitter and on various threads, means a win is really important here. A win  means we can stick Man United down a point, and be level during the game week no matter what Arsenal, City, Spurs and Chelsea do and stay above the title winning line. A Leicester win gives them 2 points if that matters at this stage. Any win against the Mancs, is worth just as much as an Arsenal win vs Swansea, City vs Everton or Chelsea vs Leicester - it's just a home win for this model afterall.

If we lose, then we lose 3 points on this, and the Mancs gain 2 points which as I'm sure you understand is a 5 point swing and pretty dramatic and means I'll be on the vodka for the rest of the week. A draw would see us drop 2 points and Man United stay on their current total.

Basically, if we win, we've got through the one gameweek where everyone is expected to win, and got one of our hardest par 3's out the way. We stay on +3 above title winning form and the Mancs drop yet another point on this. E.G If we win on Monday, you should join me on the party bus H. 

I'm sure Nessy could do better but that's the basics

Cheers Tom!

[McrRed]

Great stuff. Thanks guys.

[sminp]

Man City drop 2 points to move to 3
Arsenal remain on -1
Spurs drop 2 points to move to -2
Chelsea remain on -2
Leicester drop 1 point to move to -10

Whatever happens on Monday we will be 2nd in this table and Man Utd will be 6th

[KurtVerbose]

Yes, a win for us on Monday and we're level.

Beat Man U by 4 and we go top of the real table!

[KurtVerbose]

Beat Man U by 4 and we go top of the real table!

Actually, by 3.

[JCB]

Here's the chart as of today.





Just keeps on getting better with each week. 

[JCB]

Whatever happens on Monday we will be 2nd in this table and Man Utd will be 6th

Actually, currently Man U are 8th in the table as Southampton and Crystal Palace are above them at the moment (-4 and -6 respectively). Their games are par 1's so Man U can overtake them depending on results over the next 48 hours.

[sminp]

Actually, currently Man U are 8th in the table as Southampton and Crystal Palace are above them at the moment (-4 and -6 respectively). Their games are par 1's so Man U can overtake them depending on results over the next 48 hours.

Yeah I meant out of Prof's original table of teams, I couldn't be arsed checking other teams 

[JCB]

Yeah I know, it's just I love knocking down Man U given half a chance 

[cookie-monster]

um. beginner in this and i don't think i absorbed it all yet but Q:

PL winners always ends up top of this table as well?

[Banquo's Ghost]

um. beginner in this and i don't think i absorbed it all yet but Q:

PL winners always ends up top of this table as well?

Yes. As you approach the end of the season, the tables fall into line.

[Nessy76]

um. beginner in this and i don't think i absorbed it all yet but Q:

PL winners always ends up top of this table as well?

Yes, both tables are identical at the end of the season.

[rickardinho1]

Here's the chart as of today.





Just keeps on getting better with each week. 

Win against United:

Liverpool    +3
Man City     +3
Arsenal       -1
Spurs          -2
Chelsea      -2
Man Utd      -7

Draw against United:

Man City     +3
Liverpool    +1
Arsenal       -1
Spurs          -2
Chelsea      -2
Man Utd      -6

Lose against United:


Man City     +3
Liverpool     0
Arsenal       -1
Spurs          -2
Chelsea      -2
Man Utd      -4


Currently the difference in the APLT is 9 pts, and after the game it will either be 10 points, 7 points, or 4 points.

We'll remain 2nd in the APLT no matter what happens, but in the actual PLT the difference between winning 3-0 and losing 2-0 is being 1st and 6th after 8 games.

[scalatore]

I was busy today so didn't see the matches. Surprised City dropped points. Even more surprised at Spurs. We don't NEED to, but I'm really hoping we can take advantage of the way today's results worked out. This is the best we've looked in both the real and alternative tables for a long time.

Thank you JCB for the rolling updates. Much appreciated.

[cookie-monster]

thanks for the answers guys

[McrRed]

I was busy today so didn't see the matches. Surprised City dropped points. Even more surprised at Spurs. We don't NEED to, but I'm really hoping we can take advantage of the way today's results worked out. This is the best we've looked in both the real and alternative tables for a long time.

Thank you JCB for the rolling updates. Much appreciated.

City battered Everton and missed a penalty... but, a result is a result. Perhaps what we're seeing is the end of the new-manager bounce and their results will be slightly more varied from now on?

[me76]

City battered Everton and missed a penalty... but, a result is a result. Perhaps what we're seeing is the end of the new-manager bounce and their results will be slightly more varied from now on?

Missed 2 pens mate/ had 2 pens saved.

[PoetryInMotion]

It's very important we don't lose this game. I remember in 2014-15, when we had an upturn of form and we were looking like we would make 4th according to APLT and then we lost the game at Anfield which was a 5 point swing in their favor that started our downfall in missing out on Top 4 that season. There is more time of course this season to recover, but if we don't allow that 5 point swing to a rival, we'll be in a comfortable position.

We can win this game, but a draw also looks favorable to us at this point of time, even if it is a -2 by the end of it.

[Always_A_Red]

Such a massive game. Win this game and we'll be 10 points ahead of them in the APLT. Lets quash the talk of drawing or 'not being the end if the world' of we lose. We need to win this to keep momentum and completely shatter the confidence of them lot. A lose is unthinkable after such a good start. Lets win. The end.

[rickardinho1]

APLT (after 8 games)
Man City     +3
Liverpool    +1
Arsenal       -1
Spurs          -2
Chelsea      -2
Man Utd      -6

Real PL Table (after 8 games)

                 Pts    GD
Man City     19      11
Arsenal      19      10
Spurs         18      9
Liverpool    17      8
Chelsea     16       6
Everton      15      6
Man Utd     14      5

In the mix having played 4 of the top teams (3 away) already.


Gameweek 9:

Spurs @ Bournemouth (Par 3)
Arsenal vs Middlesbourgh (Par 3)
Everton @ Burnley (Par 3)
Liverpool vs West Brom (Par 3)
Man City vs Southampton (Par 3)
Chelsea vs Man Utd (Par 3)
Man Utd @ Chelsea (Par 1)

Guaranteed to make up ground on at least 1 rival with a win vs West Brom.

[Prof]

[sms1986]

Bit of a drop, but still above the 90 points line, and I think we'll hover at or above it for much of the season.

[rickardinho1]

Bit of a drop, but still above the 90 points line, and I think we'll hover at or above it for much of the season.

Better than dropping points against Everton or West Brom...

Or on second thought, maybe not 

[sms1986]

Better than dropping points against Everton or West Brom...

Or on second thought, maybe not 

United won't be much of a threat to us this season, I can see us challenging for top four at least whilst United will probably end up fifth or sixth.

[farawayred]

Pissed about dropping points today, but consider the start we had - Arse, Chelsea, Spurs away and United home. These are half of the games we played so far. If we perform against the lesser team, we'd win it.

[jb2319]

After the Swansea game I thought that if we could make it to the next Par 1 (Southampton) without dropping into minus figures, we would be doing very well. Tonight's result is disappointing, but provided we make the most of the next 3 winnable games, it won't matter. Important thing was to avoid defeat, as negative as that sounds.

[drmick]

Pissed about dropping points today, but consider the start we had - Arse, Chelsea, Spurs away and United home. These are half of the games we played so far. If we perform against the lesser team, we'd win it.

I suppose at the start of the season you would take 6 points (3 draws, 1 win) beforehand. In the end we took 8.

[Red Beret]

The flip side to consider is that at OT they'll be expected to fight for the win, which will play into our hands if they do.  If not, I'll take another draw at their place.

They will take this as evidence that they are solidifying things.  Let them cling to such false crumbs of comfort.  They can't do it every week.

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Round 8

[RooiBefok]

LFC Current & Projected Form : Round 8

[scalatore]

It is what it is. A better result for United, but if you'd offered me the opportunity to be ahead of par at this stage of the season, I would've taken it. Job done for the first eight games, now let's do it for the next 30.

[JCB]

APLT Full Table : Round 8

Just noticed that my APLT lists Bournemouth as on -7 (everything else is exactly the same). I tracked it down to the Watford game. Are Watford a Par 3 or a par 1?

Edit: Just checked the Prof's opening post. I think you have Watford as a par 1 for that game when they should be a par 3.

[RooiBefok]

Just noticed that my APLT lists Bournemouth as on -7 (everything else is exactly the same). I tracked it down to the Watford game. Are Watford a Par 3 or a par 1?

Edit: Just checked the Prof's opening post. I think you have Watford as a par 1 for that game when they should be a par 3.

This was addressed and covered in last years APLT, but for your benefit.

Prof’s premise has always been that in order for a team to tally 90 log points in the season, they need to win their 19 Home matches (19 x 3 = 57) plus the seven easiest Away matches (7 x 3 = 21) and draw their remaining 12 Away matches (12 x 1 = 12), resulting in a total tally of 90 log points.  Given that Prof has always limited his APLT analysis to the “top” seven teams, the seven easiest Away matches have naturally been those teams finishing in log positions 14 to 20 (inclusive) from last year’s Premier League Table. [3 relegated teams replaced with 3 promoted teams].

However, to include the last seven teams from last year in Prof’s APLT analysis the points tally will compute as follows; (19 x 3 = 57) + (6 x 3 = 18) + (13 x 1 = 13) resulting in a total tally of 88 log points.

This is ‘workable’ but if the APLT methodology is confusing to a large number now, it will cause much gnashing of teeth if we were to introduce a total par tally of 90 for thirteen teams and another total par tally of 88 for seven teams.  So, keeping in mind Prof's founding principle that in order for a team to win the title that team needs to tally 90 log points, I have simply introduced the following caveat to my APLT logic.

In order for a team to tally 90 log points in the season, they need to win their 19 Home matches plus the seven easiest Away matches, (the three promoted teams and the four lowest ranked teams, excluding oneself, from the previous season) and draw their remaining Away matches.  The resultant effect being that teams 1 to 12 need to only draw Away to the team that finished in 13th position (Watford) last year, while teams
14 to 20 need to win against Watford.

Teams 1 to 13: (19 x 3 = 57) + (7 x 3 = 21) + (12 x 1 = 12) = 90
Teams 14 to 20: (19 x 3 = 57) + (7 x 3 = 21) + (12 x 1 = 12) = 90

We are now back to square one and all 20 teams can be included and ensure that the Full APLT Table marries up to the Full Traditional Table at the end of the Season.