I’ve held off on making my official prediction for the season until now, when I’ve decided to finally put down some overarching thoughts. Pardon me if this post is long, but I hope it’ll still be worth a read for anyone looking to kill some time on the bog or train into work nonetheless.
Now, many readers here, even those who know that I can sometimes be exceptionally optimistic (perhaps bordering on deluded), may be shocked to find out that I’m predicting us to finish 3rd this season. And I’m seriously tempted to say 2nd, but I will stick to 3rd.
To delay the inevitable ambush from the keyboard warriors on here after making that rather bold prediction, I’ll try to justify myself by providing an assessment of what went wrong last season; a quick commentary of our summer business; a look at our squad outlook and weaknesses; as well as taking a look at the squads of each of our top four rivals; before passing rule on our expectations going into the season and adding some concluding remarks and further predictions.
Perfect StormBefore analysing our business this summer I think its worth taking a moment to remember what life as a Liverpool supporter was like a mere 2-and-a-bit months ago. Take a moment, and let it sink in that we lost 6-1. To Stoke. Fucking. City.
Here we are now, on the eve of a new season, with a new coaching staff and 7 new signings who have replaced a total of 8 outgoing players so far, and the general feeling among fans is one of positivity and optimism.
The first move of the summer by FSG to stick with Brendan was shrewd. He's a good manager, and he's proved before that if he has the tools at his disposal he can fashion a winning team. Last season was something of a perfect storm though, which wouldn't have been easy for any manager:
1) The transfer committee’s inability to sign a top striker to replace Suarez
2) Daniel Sturridge’s injury
3) the psychological impact of losing Suarez (not to mention the title itself)
4) Steven Gerrard’s decline and departure side-show
5) World Cup hangovers for a number of our players (eg. Lallana)
6) Sterling’s public shit-show in the run-in
7) Going from playing 43 to 58 games with a squad full of new players
8 ) Not having a good No.2 GK to cover adequately when Mignolet needed a break
9) Drama surrounding Mario Balotelli
And yet, despite all those problems, we were still in a position to challenge for Top 4 with 2 months left of the season before things derailed. With the benefit of hindsight, I’d say that Brendan did just about as well as could have been expected from anyone in his position with our squad.
Summer ChangesLooking forward, and with all due respect to the 2013/14 season, I think that
this could be the season where things come together for Rodgers, given how much talent he has at his disposal to tinker in various ways – and crucially, including up front again.
I very much like the following passage from a recent EspnFC article, and think it concisely presents some of my thoughts regarding Rodgers and his team:
After three years, it is more in tune with his thinking. It isn't Luis Suarez's team, it isn't Steven Gerrard's team. It is Rodgers'.
That will grant the manager more power to mould the side to his football ideal without having to naturally shape it toward a star, but also means he has more responsibility to actually make it look like his team straight away.
http://www.espnfc.com/club/liverpool/364/blog/post/2542735/brendan-rodgers-liverpool-future-dependent-players-jelling
Looking at the coaching staff first, it’s very clear what the style our team wants to attain this season is. In Pepijn Lijnders, Sean O’Driscoll, and Gary Mac we have a perfect blend of characters to bring Brendan’s philosophy together: a young attack-minded coach with strong connections to our youth setup; a serious no-nonsense ”driller” who by the looks of his shouting on the sidelines for 45 minutes against HJK won’t take any shit from the players when implementing a press-from-the-front defensive system (a system that should suit the players perfectly btw); and a much-loved team-first winner who will no doubt be close to the players and be a constant reminder to players of the club ethos.
Looking at our signings too, I don’t think there can be any illusions as to what the general direction is: We want to play attacking football, and we will look to score goals in every way imaginable from everywhere on the pitch.
Not many on here were a fan of the protracted Benteke signing, but as I’ve been saying for weeks I think he’s going to be a big hit. Milner, Firmino, Clyne, Gomez, Ings, and Bogdan round out what can undisputably be hailed as a successful window in terms of incoming signings. Big money has been spent when necessary (Benteke, Firmino) but the club have also been very prudent in acquiring several quality players to fill positions of need for well below their market values (Clyne, Milner, Gomez, Ings).
In terms of departures, the club have done very well to get £49m for (that little *%$#) Sterling, as well as decent fees for Lambert, Aspas, and Coates, plus even a healthy fee and loan move for Wisdom. Seeing a quickly-aging Gerrard and well-past-his-sell-by-date Glen Johnson leave should benefit the club too, even if it is harsh of me to say so in Gerrard’s case. The last of the deadwood should be moved on soon too in one form or another (i.e. Balotelli, Borini, and Enrique).
Squad OutlookThere are many reasons to be optimistic with the squad we have, but before I comment on the squad, I want to share an extract from a recent Tomkins article I found particularly interesting:
Perhaps the problem Liverpool had last season was that six or seven of the new players were either simply not good enough (bad judgement calls) or still acclimatising/adjusting/developing. This meant that, overall, no single position was actually improved; and that, indeed, the loss of one outstanding player in a pivotal position (such as centre-forward), was in this instance more harmful than buying various options – at least for the short-term of one season (these players are still at Liverpool and can yet improve; indeed, some almost certainly will).
http://tomkinstimes.com/2015/08/liverpool-fcs-big-experiment-a-season-preview/
Having signed relatively young but mainly experienced and quality players, we have undoubtedly strengthened both our First XI and greater squad this summer. As Tomkins mentioned, our signings from last season (eg. Can, Moreno, Markovic, Lovren, and Lallana) should improve now in their second season too. As such, I very much agree with a post made by Gnurglan a day or so ago where he said that ”This year we've signed better (IMO) and hopefully last season's approach will combine well with this summer's”.
Tomkins also continues:
My sense here is that it takes time to bear the fruits of a big net spend; particularly if there is a high turnover of players.
A high net spend involving young players may mean that the rewards are delayed, as potential can take time to blossom into top-level consistency. And yet I’ve no doubt that, on the whole, buying players aged 18-25 is a better use of resources than going for the perceived ‘finished product’ (not least because no matter how many ‘finished product’ signings I analyse, there’s no clearer success rate, beyond a very small increase; but with the added risk of overpriced fees, overly large wages and reduced sell-on options).
I agree with this view, and am rather pleased with the way our owners have steadily built a young but experienced and dynamic squad.
Tomkins also says that ”unless you have a mega-squad, balancing the cups and the league is a near-impossible feat”, which I absolutely agree with. The beautiful part is that we now have such a ”mega-squad”, with genuine competition for places in every position on the pitch, and there is sure to be long debates between fans all season long about who should start over who in many positions.
The crucial improvement has been in attack, where we have the mouth-watering prospect of seeing a Firmino - Benteke - Sturridge front 3, with Coutinho in midfield ripping teams apart. Goals galore could well be coming back to Anfield sooner than anyone realised.
There was a
good post by BassTurnedToRed in the Stats thread back in October which highlighted that we would struggle due to 3 areas: reduction in set-piece goals; reduction in clear-cut chances post-Suarez; and the poor finishing of Balotelli.
I agree with those conclusions, but believe we have come a long way to resolving those issues:
1.
Set piece threat: Adding Benteke, who is one of the (if not the most) dominant players in the league aerially.
2.
Clear cut chances: Adding creative and clinical players who can contribute in the final 3rd (Firmino, Benteke, Ings, Origi, Milner, Clyne)
3.
Finishing. Balotelli ---> Benteke is an upgrade which will no doubt provide us with more goals up front. Not to mention that Sturridge appears to be nearing fitness again.
It seems to be an utter slam-dunk prediction that we will see a vast increase on the paltry number of goals we scored last season (52), which imo was the main reason for not finishing in the Top 4. You need 70+ goals for that, and any casual observer will have noted that we just didn't score enough. In fact, it's quite impressive that we managed to stay in the hunt for top 4 despite scoring so few.
It is also worth re-emphasizing how ridiculously young our team is. As Tomkins puts it, one ”can pick an XI with eight full internationals, plus Can, Gomez and Ibe, that averaged just 22.4 – which seems utterly insane. Given that players can often play U21 football up to the age of 23, this is essentially an U21 side.” Adding proven PL players like Milner, Benteke, and Clyne to the mix should provide this young core with the shot in the arm it needs to get to the next level.
That said, the squad is not without weakness. First and foremost, it remains to be seen if Brendan can find a permanent solution for our leaky defense. As I’ve discussed on several ocassions, like
here, I think the root cause of many of our defensive issues come from Skrtel and Mignolet, and their inability to play in a way that doesn’t detract from the high-line pressing style Brendan clearly wants to implement.
Against HJK on Sunday the lack of attacking width on the left in Moreno’s absence was also particularly stark, so perhaps that is an area we could improve on.
Furthermore, although we have shown evidence of a solid pressing game, we’ve been rather unspectacular in the final 3rd most of preseason. However, adding Firmino, Benteke, and Coutinho to the first XI, and of course the re-introduction of Sturridge should help ease any concerns about our attack.
The fact that we have so many new faces and such a young squad suggests to me that we will fall short of being able to challenge for the title, but with enough goals we should be in strong contention for a Top 4 finish this season.
RivalsHaving looked at our much improved squad, it’s now time to look at our rivals. Since I’m being optimistic and purposefully red-tinted I’m going to focus heavily on the drawbacks of each team more often than not.
Arsenal Stability is the first word that comes to mind. Arsenal may have had the best window of all so far, simply for not changing any pieces of an already strong squad other than in goal.
The last few seasons people have predicted they would fall out of Top 4 and they have exceeded those expectations by staying in each time. Now there is genuine talk of a title challenge, and they may just go one better than just challenging.
As is well publicized, they still have not signed the big striker they really need to get the fans and players buzzing. An injury to Giroud would be very costly for their season.
ChelseaAfter losing to Fiorentina earlier today Chelsea have now gone winless in preseason (losses to NY Redbulls and Fiorentina, and draws against PSG and somewhat 2nd rate Barcelona) which might suggests that they aren’t in tip-top form yet.
Unimportant preseason results aside though, there is always a risk of title-winners’ hangover, and with Mourinho wanting CL success more than anything it would make sense to prepare his squad to be fit and firing in the second half of the season which could mean that they come out of the gates slowly (as indeed preseason results might indicate).
Their back 4 is rapidly aging, and they also have injury issues up front where Costa – though prolific when fit – is hardly reliable. Remy and Falcao have been unreliable at best recently, and their tame performances in the Community Shield suggest that won’t change anytime soon.
Though I doubt it will be the case at Chelsea this time around, Mourinho seems to have a ”3rd season” syndrome where his presence starts to become untenable after around 2-3 years at a club. Indeed, he has never been at a club longer than 3 and-a-bit years. If he doesn’t produce pleasing-enough attacking football - which is often the case the longer he is at a club, especially when focussing on preparing his teams for CL primarily - Abramovich may well clash with him again, especially if he gets knocked out of the CL again.
CitySterling missing CL would please me just as much as United missing it, but I think City will get the goals that United won’t.
That said, Dzeko and Jovetic out, Sterling in doesn’t seem like the business for a team that’s going to make giant strides forward. They are still unbalanced in midfield, and now there are more quality teams in the league capable of playing football around Yaya.
With Dzeko and Jovetic gone, I would expect them to sign another striker, but until they do they will need Aguero to carry them again. Considering that Aguero has started 22, 20, and 30 games in the last 3 seasons, there seems to be quite a risk that he doesn’t. They could be left counting big-time on Sterling, and even without that Sterling is already under massive pressure to perform now that he’s got the money he wants. Will be interesting to see how he deals with constant boo-ing up and down the country too.
With lot’s of focus on the CL again they will need to prioritize that over the league somewhat, especially when it comes to Aguero. City have so many ego’s in their team, and that reality will be felt even more now that Milner is gone, as he was the one player capable of ”putting in a shift” in a team of primadona’s.
Their need for homegrown talent will surely restrict any business they can do this summer too, so I’m not particularly worried about who they bring in at this stage. In any case, they need players like De Bruyne and Pogba in order to kick on, but those players apparently aren’t going to join them this summer.
UnitedThere was a recent Opta article posted in the United thread (which I can’t find right now) that discussed in-depth reasons why they would struggle this season. Effectively, they are removing the main attacking-3rd threats (Di Maria, Falcao, RVP) from a side that only score 62 goals last season (which let me remind you is less than they scored under the Chosen One!).
Here are some stats highlighting this.
They’ve recruited well, but goals is what gets you challenging near the top, and surely they can’t expect to improve significantly only by adding a 21 year old, regardless how talented he is, as players take time to settle. They will probably sign Pedro, but as Di Maria and Falcao showed, there is no guarantee talented attacking players will thrive under Van Gaal.
Furthermore, they still have not sorted out the biggest weakness, and as such they go into the season with a centerback ”partnership” of Blind and Jones. If I’m Harry Kane I’m certainly fancying myself some goals at OT this weekend that’s for sure.
Adding Schneiderlin and Schweinsteiger were smart moves, because they are good players, but don’t really improve their first XI, due to the fact that Herrera (who was their best outfield player last year) will most likely be benched. They also have the potentially explosive De Gea situation brewing, and you just know there’s some fireworks involving Van Gaal upcoming if he stays.
We also saw first-hand what the added strain of CL football can have on a team, and with only Rooney as a capable main striker (and no new ones being linked/wanting to come) they will surely be stretched unless they bring someone in.
I predict that they will dominate possession incessantly, but frustrate their supporters greatly as they struggle to create many quality opportunities from that possession. They'll by and large shuffle their way through the season scraping narrow wins to stay in contention for Top 4 as Van Gaal continues to tinker and find archaic ways to get goals, but that eventually they will miss out.
My ExpectationsIn short, I expect to see the team return to playing relentless, dynamic, and entertaining attacking football.
The importance of a good start cannot be understated. After the productive and momentum-building summer the club has had, that positive vibe needs to be built upon and carried forward right from the off. Remind yourself of the positive (and almost relieving) effects of Mignolet’s penalty save against Stoke in August 2013 and it's easy to see what a good start to the season can do to a team in terms of positivity. Here it is for your viewing pleasure:
Conversely, a poor start would sap the energy from the fans, staff, and players incredibly fast, especially as the media will be quick to throw Brendan in the fire and name Klopp constantly if things aren’t going well.
That said, we have one of the most potent and dynamic attacks in the league now, with quality replacements off the bench, so I expect us to score many, many more goals than we did last season which should be enough for Top 4.
Regarding the EL, I think there are very positive silver linings from the fact that we are in the EL this season instead of the CL. The EL will allow our manager to focus most of his time and effort on the PL, while still allowing us to give plenty of valuable experience to our younger squad players like Can, Markovic, Ings, Origi, Teixeira, Ilori, Rossiter, etc. I do hope that we take the competition seriously though, as success in the EL is often a precursor to success in the CL, as we’ve seen recently with Atletico, Juventus, Porto, and even ourselves.
PredictionsThe top 4 will be (in this order): Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, City, United.
I don’t like making predictions for cup competitions due to the random nature of the draws and one-off results, but I think we can win one of the domestic cups, as well as progressing to the semifinals of the EL, at which stage anything can happen.
Top Scorer: Benteke
Player of the season: Milner
Most improved: Lallana
Youngster to impress the most: Gomez and Ibe will have good seasons, but Teixeira will be the biggest surprise, as he turns in great performances in the EL and cup games to kick on. Tempted to say Ilori too - if given the chance of playing next to Sakho or even Lovren in the cups he could really impress.
I really want to throw in a curveball and predict that Markovic will become Patrik Berger Mk.II over the course of the our EL campaign, but I just can't see it :/ Benteke’s ”Bang ’em In” song will be the Christmas No.1 on Merseyside though
