Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Apparently Johnson's u-turn came shortly after a CIA intelligence briefing.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/21/politics/ukraine-aid-mike-johnson-house-speaker-israel-taiwan/index.html

One of the nuts wants rid of him, his reason being that Mike brainwashed him with intelligence 

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Ukranians getting more strategic weapons, like a load of ATACMS, rather than defensive ones and told there are no conditions to their use would be welcome.

[Red Beret]

Ukranians getting more strategic weapons, like a load of ATACMS, rather than defensive ones and told there are no conditions to their use would be welcome.

Mitch McConnell has said he hopes there are no conditions on their use. Let's hope Biden takes up that offer.

I would really like to know the reasoning behind Germany's continued intransigence on providing Taurus missiles though.

[rhysd]

Mitch McConnell has said he hopes there are no conditions on their use. Let's hope Biden takes up that offer.

I would really like to know the reasoning behind Germany's continued intransigence on providing Taurus missiles though.

There's a theory that they don't want to be the ones to supply the weapon that takes the bridge down, as that will really set Putin off. Too political.

Hoping they can speed up the development of Hrim-2 and increasing the range of the Neptune. then it can be homemade Ukrainian weapons that take it down properly.

[farawayred]

Might that have something to do with Germany's dependence on Russian gas?

They have to pull the finger out of their ass.

[west_london_red]

I also wouldn’t underestimate the difficulty involved in taking the bridge down, the Russians arnt that stupid and will have it absolutely defended from sea and missile attacks, having weapons with the range to reach the bridge is just half the problem.

[farawayred]

I also wouldn’t underestimate the difficulty involved in taking the bridge down, the Russians arnt that stupid and will have it absolutely defended from sea and missile attacks, having weapons with the range to reach the bridge is just half the problem.

The other half has been solved on several occasions, which led to the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to Russian territory. The Russians have a very porous air defense in Crimea that can be easily overwhelmed by drones to let the long-range missiles do their work.

[Lone Star Red]

Hello...Hello!

The US secretly sent long-range ATACMS to Ukraine — and Kyiv used them
The transfer of Army Tactical Missile Systems with a nearly 200-mile range ends a yearslong drama between Washington and Kyiv.

By ALEXANDER WARD and LARA SELIGMAN

04/24/2024 12:30 PM EDT

Updated: 04/24/2024 12:47 PM EDT

The Biden administration last month secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for the first time in the two-year war — and Kyiv has already used the weapon twice to strike deep behind Russian lines.

...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110

[TSC]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics/biden-signs-foreign-aid-bill/index.html

[west_london_red]

The other half has been solved on several occasions, which led to the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to Russian territory. The Russians have a very porous air defense in Crimea that can be easily overwhelmed by drones to let the long-range missiles do their work.

Has Ukraine managed to hit the bridge yet? I know there was that truck that exploded but so far despite overwhelming air defences and hitting airbases in Crimea they haven’t hit the bridge. That would at least for me suggest the bridge is better defended.

[farawayred]

Has Ukraine managed to hit the bridge yet? I know there was that truck that exploded but so far despite overwhelming air defences and hitting airbases in Crimea they haven’t hit the bridge. That would at least for me suggest the bridge is better defended.

I meant that Ukraine managed to breach the porous Russian air defense on several occasions. They didn't have long range missions to hit the bridge, but the hole in the sky was open. Now they have long range (300 km) ATACMS, now the bridge can likely be brought down.

[Schmidt]

I meant that Ukraine managed to breach the porous Russian air defense on several occasions. They didn't have long range missions to hit the bridge, but the hole in the sky was open. Now they have long range (300 km) ATACMS, now the bridge can likely be brought down.

They're able to breach air defences around Crimea through a combination of overwhelming the defences with drones, using drones/decoys to reveal and then destroy radars/launchers, and spreading drones across a wide area to look for areas lacking in coverage. However, the closer you get to the Kerch bridge the denser anti-air is likely to be, so the above strategies only get you so far. You also potentially have to hit a single support multiple times to have an impact and ATACMS are only accurate up to about 10 metres, so they'd really have to launch a lot of them to stand a chance of taking the bridge out long term.

There are a few potentially big benefits to ATACMS that I'm aware of. The first is that stockpiles all the way up to the coast should be in range for Ukraine, meaning they could go back to destroying equipment before it reaches the front. Another is that there are cluster variations of ATACMS, which can be (and have been) dropped on Russian airfields to take aircraft out for the foreseeable future. I think they also carry a bigger payload than Storm Shadows, which makes them better at blowing up unfortified buildings and storage areas, but I'm not 100% on that.

Hopefully they arrive in large quantities, that's probably been the biggest issue with Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the numbers are limited.

[PaulF]

I guess it's not news but I read that we are still buying lots of wuzsian oil bit because it's processed elsewhere its 'allowed' 😒

[thaddeus]

I guess it's not news but I read that we are still buying lots of wuzsian oil bit because it's processed elsewhere its 'allowed' 😒

Yes and that's the problem with long-standing sanctions as eventually almost any sanction can be worked around.  Oil and gas exported to the west via intermediaries and components for their war machine imported from China via intermediaries.

I'm not saying that the sanctions should be lifted as they still serve a purpose - primarily that Russia sells below the rates it could achieve if it didn't have to sell via intermediaries.  It would be good if they could be applied in a more watertight way but very difficult when there's so many immoral people happy to make their money by enabling this bypassing of sanctions.

[Red Beret]

Russian forces pushing to recapture Robotyne, but it seems that Ukraine - so far at least - have tactical drone superiority. The town and surrounding area look like the surface of the moon.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/33LL8vXRfEM&amp;ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/33LL8vXRfEM&amp;ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine</a>

[rhysd]

Currently Russian gains daily in Donetsk oblast. No major breakthrough still, but it's looking ominous. I hate checking Deepstatemap these days.

Russia seems to have changed tactics. Unfortunately they have finally realised that armoured vehicles are an easy target and Ukraine is incredibly good at destroying them.

Recently they've been using troops on motorbikes, fast moving and gets under the artillery. Many die but enough get through and they keep sending them until enough survive to hold the position, then they can make progress.

Kharkiv is rumoured to be the target for a huge Russian summer offensive too. They've been bombing the shit out of it recently.

Unless Ukraine can rustle up a few hundred thousand trained troops and a couple of hundred modern jets from somewhere it's hard to see how they get the initiative back.

Reports saying they might get a handful of old F-16's maybe in July, but they said it would be January at one point, it keeps getting put back. Starting to think they don't exist.

It's disgraceful this has been allowed to happen, the West should have put their foot on Putin in 2014 when he started this thing.

[west_london_red]

Yes and that's the problem with long-standing sanctions as eventually almost any sanction can be worked around.  Oil and gas exported to the west via intermediaries and components for their war machine imported from China via intermediaries.

I'm not saying that the sanctions should be lifted as they still serve a purpose - primarily that Russia sells below the rates it could achieve if it didn't have to sell via intermediaries.  It would be good if they could be applied in a more watertight way but very difficult when there's so many immoral people happy to make their money by enabling this bypassing of sanctions.

Even if the war ends tomorrow sanctions shouldn’t be lifted on Russia, the pressure shouldn’t be eased up on Putin’s regime as long as he’s alive and Russia is a threat to its neighbours.

[Lone Star Red]

Christopher Miller
@ChristopherJM

Two senior Ukrainian intel officials described Russia’s attacks along the frontline and missile strikes on Kharkiv as softening the battlefield before a major offensive. The officials expect Russia to launch a new large-scale assault in late May or June.

https://xcancel.com/ChristopherJM/status/1785025127702253784

Article here:
https://www.ft.com/content/1e7204cf-ebb0-443d-9c67-84cba2332391?shareType=nongift

[Schmidt]

Even if the war ends tomorrow sanctions shouldn’t be lifted on Russia, the pressure shouldn’t be eased up on Putin’s regime as long as he’s alive and Russia is a threat to its neighbours.

I think they're supposed to remain in place until reparations have been paid. They should be indefinite however, make it clear to nations like Russia just how high the price is for their actions.

[PaulF]

Even if the war ends tomorrow sanctions shouldn’t be lifted on Russia, the pressure shouldn’t be eased up on Putin’s regime as long as he’s alive and Russia is a threat to its neighbours.

Sanctions hurt ordinary Russian folk more than outin and his cronies. It's not like they even vote for putin any more.

[west_london_red]

Sanctions hurt ordinary Russian folk more than outin and his cronies. It's not like they even vote for putin any more.

Personally I’m not going to lose sleep over that, as much as the Russian people are suffering it’s a lot less than the people of Ukraine.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Cluster ATACMS taking a heavy toll on the Russians today.

[Red Beret]

Russia continues to treat this like WW2; their only solution is to throw thousands of conscripts into the meat grinder of the front lines until something breaks.

If it's correct that Russia hopes to renew their offensives after the spring rains, then I think they'll struggle. Ukraine should have been able to rearm a fair bit thanks to renewed American support.

[Draex]

America just needs to send every single spare Bradley they have, so many videos of them grinding through anything Russia has.

[PaulF]

Personally I’m not going to lose sleep over that, as much as the Russian people are suffering it’s a lot less than the people of Ukraine.

That , of course, won't be case though when the war is ended!

[west_london_red]

Russia continues to treat this like WW2; their only solution is to throw thousands of conscripts into the meat grinder of the front lines until something breaks.

If it's correct that Russia hopes to renew their offensives after the spring rains, then I think they'll struggle. Ukraine should have been able to rearm a fair bit thanks to renewed American support.

That might the only option the Ukrainians have left unfortunately, give up any hope of moving forward and just fortify their lines and let Putin just keep throwing bodies at the Ukrainians until the Russians run out of bodies or the death toll starts causing trouble on the home front.

[Schmidt]

That might the only option the Ukrainians have left unfortunately, give up any hope of moving forward and just fortify their lines and let Putin just keep throwing bodies at the Ukrainians until the Russians run out of bodies or the death toll starts causing trouble on the home front.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing for Ukraine. Moving forward is costly, so the more aggressive Russia are the more attrition Ukraine can inflict without having to advance themselves. Unfortunately Ukraine don't have the equipment in place to keep Russia at arms length but hopefully as more aid finds its way to the front things will stabilise, and they can potentially even quickly and cheaply retake any territory that Russia haven't dug into yet.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Not going well

Ukraine has pulled back its troops from several villages in the border region of Kharkiv following continued pressure from Russian forces.

Soldiers had come under heavy fire and moved to "more advantageous positions" in two areas of the north-eastern region, a military spokesman said.

Throughout the course of the two-year war, Ukraine has typically used this type of language to signify a retreat.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has cancelled all upcoming foreign trips as troops struggle to contain the new cross-border incursion, with several towns and villages coming under heavy fire.

His press secretary, Sergiy Nykyforov, said the president had "instructed that all international events scheduled for the coming days be postponed and new dates coordinated".

A spokesman for the military said in a statement that the decision to move troops from the Lukyantsi and Vovchansk areas was taken to "preserve the lives of our servicemen and avoid losses".

The capture of Vovchansk, though not of specific militarily significance, would represent a blow to Ukrainian morale.

[rhysd]

Not going well

Ukraine has pulled back its troops from several villages in the border region of Kharkiv following continued pressure from Russian forces.

Soldiers had come under heavy fire and moved to "more advantageous positions" in two areas of the north-eastern region, a military spokesman said.

Throughout the course of the two-year war, Ukraine has typically used this type of language to signify a retreat.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has cancelled all upcoming foreign trips as troops struggle to contain the new cross-border incursion, with several towns and villages coming under heavy fire.

His press secretary, Sergiy Nykyforov, said the president had "instructed that all international events scheduled for the coming days be postponed and new dates coordinated".

A spokesman for the military said in a statement that the decision to move troops from the Lukyantsi and Vovchansk areas was taken to "preserve the lives of our servicemen and avoid losses".

The capture of Vovchansk, though not of specific militarily significance, would represent a blow to Ukrainian morale.

Russian MOD reporting they have retaken Robotyne too. One of the big victories for Ukraine in the ill-fated 2023 counteroffensive. They expended a lot of men and equipment taking it. Would be a big blow to lose it again so quickly.

Russian MOD statements should be taken with a large pinch of salt though. Will have to wait and see on that.

Hard to see how it gets better for Ukraine now really.

Any thoughts of any new counteroffensive are just pie in the sky. They don't have the trained troops or the equipment to conduct one. Never mind the fact they still have no modern jets.

Russia making ground in Kharkiv oblast with Ukraine retreating. Budanov admitting there will be another one in Sumy oblast soon.

Another commander stated it's only a matter of time before the Ukraine stronghold Chasiv Yar falls. Krasnohorivka and some others about to fall imminently too.

I hope they can still keep hanging on, but it's hard to see much positive right now.
The last couple of months have seen a real swing in momentum.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Getting to the point where we will see if Macron will back up his words about NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine.

[filopastry]

Well if the West sits fannying around not arming them adequately this is what happens.

Russia goes full war economy while we mumble platitudes and in comparison trickle military aid to them.

Well I'm sure we can all enjoy paying for it with increased military spending in future

[killer-heels]

Getting to the point where we will see if Macron will back up his words about NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine.

No chance.

[Red-Soldier]

We're appeasing genocidal actions in Gaza, whilst hanging Ukraine out to dry.

[A Complete Flop]

Putin is a bully who'll just keep going until he's stopped. The lack urgency to come to Ukraine's aid with whatever it's needed is a blight on the west.

[Lone Star Red]

This feels like Russia trying to push the initiative before Ukraine really starts to feel the positive effects of the US arms package.

[Lone Star Red]

No chance.

I think NATO troops backfilling non-combat roles, away from the front, should be seriously considered in the next 3-6 months. I know Estonia has already floated the idea out.

[rhysd]

This feels like Russia trying to push the initiative before Ukraine really starts to feel the positive effects of the US arms package.

It is.

But every single square km the Russians take means dozens of Ukrainian casualties to try and win it back.

Russia took an estimated 47,000 casualties just taking small Avdiivka. We saw how brutal it was for Ukraine moving forward in the counter offensive too.

Anything  they lose now is going to be very difficult to ever get back.

[rhysd]

I think NATO troops backfilling non-combat roles, away from the front, should be seriously considered in the next 3-6 months. I know Estonia has already floated the idea out.

I think France and Poland too have mentioned this.

[west_london_red]

This feels like Russia trying to push the initiative before Ukraine really starts to feel the positive effects of the US arms package.

It’s a combination of arms package not arriving yet, the weather wasn’t as bad as usual meaning the land is dry rather then the muddy mess it usually is, lack of manpower due Ukraine not wanting to conscript more people, the area where the Russians are attacking wasnt well defended either apparently (it wasn’t mined) and unfortunately the Russians getting their act together and improving their tactics.

[west_london_red]

I think France and Poland too have mentioned this.

What would the non-combat roles away from the front be? Surely the vast majority of Ukraines forces are either fighting, near the front in a support role or resting/on rotation?