I'm not as optimistic as other posters about the the current military action being carried out by the Russians. Yes, there is a lot of military incompetence on their part, but I don't really ever remember them being tacticly brilliant in any of thier campaigns in the past. There is the odd exception, but basically their tactics has always sheer numbers and brute force. This is now more evident in the south with their constant pounding of Ukrainian positions with heavy artillery. Very slow and steady progress is being made, but progress never the less and at significant cost to Ukraine.
My other concern is Moldova, there is already a small Russian military presence there, some 1500 personel. This seems insignificant, but considering Moldova only has an active personel of 6500 or so then you can see that it wouldn't take much more to cause significant problems. My fear is (maybe unfounded) that Moldovan resistance will collapse, this would put Russia in a position to strike into the Ukranian mid west, and expand the fronts on which Ukraine now fights. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, for I know this part of Ukraine and it's people well. I try to be optimistic, but a lot of the reports I see are froth, the odd video clip and little information. We are not being told concrete facts and information which has real depth of knowledge from it's publishers. I know it's war, and information is always limited, but what I see and discern when you sort through all the bullshit doesn't fill me with hope
Actually, it seems that from a variety of telegram sources of Russians writing about Rubizhne, that the old Soviet doctrine of Artillery, send in the solders, recover the dead is being repeated over and over again currently. The Russians are being ground down massively in men and materiel in places like Sloviyansk where the majority of the Ukrainian tank divisions are based. The Ukrainians will be lit by massive amounts of artillery, then when the Russians advance after they all get slaughtered from well emplaned enfilades and box traps. Once the artillery renders these positions untenable, they retreat and reset a new defensive line. Meanwhile the Russians will advance forward losing hundreds of casualties as the do so.
It makes me think that the Ukrainian's are ceding territory on purposes to create these ambushes, allow more Russian armor to slip through, extend their supply chains, open them up to targeted artillery strikes. Eventually when the Ukrainian artillery improves, they will be able to counter battery fire against the Russians, which will leave their armour stranded. The Russians are intent on breaking out of Iziyum, but it leaves them exposed on the Kharkiv side for an eventual counterattack that could cut off the salient.
The timeframe for the new artillery systems to be up integrated is at least another two weeks with all the training in Germany for the Ukrainians, but the hardware is in the Ukraine already. That will be the decisive moment in this war.
Moldova is a special case, in that not much can happen there unless the Russians carry out their amphibious assault south of Odesa. Moldova itself is landlocked, and Transnistria cannot be supplied by the Russians from the air, or they will be shot down. So if we go by the current numbers, the Transnistrian regulars with the tiny garrison of Russians will not be able to do much. What are the options? Transnistria mobilizers their young men (which they are doing now), sets up a large conscript type infantry battalion, and declares war with Ukraine. With their equipment and numbers, they will be crushed by the Odesa defence unless if Russia tries to do an amphibious landing to support, which seems unlikely at the moment.
Second option, they mobilise, and marches on Chisinău, which is the more likely scenario. The Moldovan Army just on it’s own have no real equipment nor real numbers of troops, last said by Sandu to be around 70000 total. The fighting would drag on for weeks, and eventually the Romanians will throw their support behind the Moldovans. Whether by arms, by ‘renting’ soldiers to them, or in the most extreme example, annex Moldova at the behest of their government.
Either option has no strategic value for Russia unless if they conduct that amphibious landing. But they are now short one flagship used for air defence duties, and one large landing ship from the Berdyansk attack. The longer they wait, the more time the Ukrainians and set up their defence in the area, which is limited to one small part of land surrounded by lagoons and swamps. Plus the naval defence, which should be coming soon, that could render the landing ships into coral reefs.
