I'm going to this. My previous three visits to Southampton didn't give much to shout about- treble season we played at the Dell early in the campaign, were 0-3 up with UNDER half hour left, drew 3-3! Went the St Mary's game in Rafa's first season, lost 2-0 with Crouch scoring both. Then at last season's horror show, we had smashed Wigan then beat Tottenham in the matches preceding it leaving that small linger of hope that 4th was still, barely, alive. Was obviously dashed there and then in the 3-1.
So, based on that alone, I don't have much confidence this Saturday. Of all our games left, despite a trip to Man Utd, home games against Chelsea and Manchester City this, a trip to Southampton, is the game I'm most fearful of a loss. There is no doubt that a few of our players struggle against teams who press, and Southampton press as well as anyone in the Premier League.
Having said that, clearly the defeat there last season was partly down to our going in with just two central midfielders (which excluded our best defensive midfielder, Lucas, while Allen played in spite of an injury) and four players licensed to effectively stay forward. Then this season in the home game I guess we could look at the fact that we were without Suarez and Coutinho (and Sterling, although he wasn't seen then as the player he is now) while we weirdly played four centre-backs. So I'm trying to be positive and just hope that Rodgers has learned his lessons from previous encounters with Pochettino's Saints.
It will certainly be tough either way. I know their season is, to all intents and purposes, finished; they can't finish any higher than 8th realistically, but top half is a foregone conclusion too. Despite that, make no qualms that they would love to do the double over a club like Liverpool and, who knows, with us likely to be in the Champions League next season some of their players may even put in that extra effort to try and get noticed. So we'll need to be on the top of our attacking game, as we have been in our last three matches, but absolutely must tighten up defensively to have a chance of winning this; these are more likely to punish us than Swansea did, players Lallana and Rodriguez have scored lots of goals this season. Lambert's been below par in comparison to last season but is bound to raise his game for the visit of his boyhood club. Tactically they match up well against us, as said we do struggle with teams that relentlessly press us while they struggle more against teams that play long (see: their loss at West Ham last week, their recent draw at home to Stoke) but played very well in their home matches against good footballing sides like Arsenal and Man City.
Dilemma for Rodgers' team selection with Allen having such a positive impact on us when he came on against Swansea. He certainly tightens us up defensively when Coutinho is off colour and is better at controlling games but if he came in for Coutinho then we'd be less of a threat in the final third. Could always replace Sterling, whose shown small signs of fatigue in our last two league games, which would allow Coutinho to go wide left. To the guy who suggested we put one of Suarez/Sturridge on the bench for this, no thanks. I'd have Sturridge wide right to give Luke Shaw a decision to make with regards steaming forward at every opportunity. Regardless, we need SAS both to play here because it's unlikely we'll get as many chances as usual so need our most clinical players on the pitch to take any that come our way. I'd keep Agger in over Toure, for sure. Cissokho in for Johnson would be understandable but I doubt it happens.
Win this and I will genuinely feel like we can win the title. Draw it and I'd still be super confident of top four. Lose and, well, we'd have to see how other results around us go before jumping to any conclusions. I'm just glad that we're getting the game that is, for my money, our most difficult remaining out of the way. Also, I do take belief from the fact we've ended other hoodoos this season, with the wins at Tottenham, Stoke and home to Arsenal (all games in which we scored five goals, for those of you who may a pattern developing...).
It's a shame we can't bring Emile Heskey back to notch the winner like he did there in 2003.
Any win would do. I'd take another nerve-wracking 4-3 if it meant we came out with the three points.