Topic: Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance

[GrkStav]

New blog post alert! http://basstunedtored.com/2014/10/30/creating-from-corners/

In short, it's a piece on where we've created chances from corners in the last two seasons, and basically we seem to be doing it in the same areas this season as we were last season. So really we should've scored by now, and I'm not sure why we haven't! But it may just be luck, I guess...

I've attached a couple of screenshots to illustrate the point. The first one shows our assists from corners last season, and then some shots we've had from corners this season. In location terms, they're very similar. Maybe I've uncovered our set piece strategy for our opponents... oops!

If you're interested, have a read, if not then no sweat. Cheers.

What I love the most about your articles, mate, is how you "nod" in the direction of additional or potentially more useful avenues of research (identifying potentially crucial variables for which you have not (yet) located reliable and valid measures, etc) without making your pieces "wishy-washy". They strike a fine balance between the desire and need to generalize (infer to the population from relatively small samples) and the necessity to remain attuned to the concrete and the particular, in light of the realities of the situation (the kind of sport it is, the number of potentially stochastic processes, etc).

Well done. My take-away point is that we might as well continue doing what we've been doing with corner-kicks. Doing so would not, in the least, be akin to madness.

[BassTunedToRed]

Thanks for the kind words, mate.

I learned early on when trying to analyse stuff that if I didn't think of the potential pitfalls and areas for further investigation, then people would swiftly point them out! Due to only having access to relatively limited data there will always be gaps in pieces, but it's great that there's numerous people out there doing interesting things with it.

I agree re not changing our corners, I just wish I knew why we scored a lot last year and none so far this season. Just random variation or luck I guess.

[GrkStav]

I think it is 'random variation' and, speculating, change in our personnel and adjustment on the part of the opposition, BTtR.

[robgomm]

Other than random variation, are the opposition doing the same things as last year or are they marking us better?

[houkura]

Thanks for the kind words, mate.

I learned early on when trying to analyse stuff that if I didn't think of the potential pitfalls and areas for further investigation, then people would swiftly point them out! Due to only having access to relatively limited data there will always be gaps in pieces, but it's great that there's numerous people out there doing interesting things with it.

I agree re not changing our corners, I just wish I knew why we scored a lot last year and none so far this season. Just random variation or luck I guess.

I seem to remember that we hadn't scored any from a corner until later in the season last year and then they started to all go in. Isn't there info in your data for when the goals were going in?

[Redman0151]

I seem to remember that we hadn't scored any from a corner until later in the season last year and then they started to all go in. Isn't there info in your data for when the goals were going in?

I remember scoring corners against United and Sunderland which was pretty early on

[GregCharrua]

Thanks for the kind words, mate.

I learned early on when trying to analyse stuff that if I didn't think of the potential pitfalls and areas for further investigation, then people would swiftly point them out! Due to only having access to relatively limited data there will always be gaps in pieces, but it's great that there's numerous people out there doing interesting things with it.

I agree re not changing our corners, I just wish I knew why we scored a lot last year and none so far this season. Just random variation or luck I guess.

Hey, one! Lovren v Swansea was a corner was it not? Or a free kick? 

[BassTunedToRed]

Other than random variation, are the opposition doing the same things as last year or are they marking us better?

From the stats it's impossible to say. But the fact that we're creating more from corners and not less suggests they're not marking us any better than they were.

I seem to remember that we hadn't scored any from a corner until later in the season last year and then they started to all go in. Isn't there info in your data for when the goals were going in?

Here's the breakdown

Match 3 (United at home)

Match 6 (Sunderland away)

Match 11 (Fulham at home)

Match 12 (Everton away)

Match 14 (Norwich home)

Match 20 (Hull home)

Match 23 (Everton home)

Match 25 (Arsenal home)

Match 30 (Cardiff away)

Match 34 (Man City home)

Match 37 (Palace away)

So never more than 6 games without one.

Hey, one! Lovren v Swansea was a corner was it not? Or a free kick? 

It was a free-kick, but either way I'm only looking at league games as detailed info is far more readily available there than it is for cup games.

[BassTunedToRed]

A quick look at 'Balotelli In The Box'...

There seems to be consensus online that both Mario Balotelli and the Liverpool team as a whole perform better when the £16m Italian international is partnered by another striker; ideally with Daniel Sturridge (as we saw at White Hart Lane), but also when alongside Rickie Lambert or Fabio Borini.

Whilst it is hard to quantify this performance improvement, I thought I’d take a quick look at Balotelli’s impact in the opposition penalty box when he has played alone compared to when he has had a strike partner.

It’s important to remember that the samples here are small, so may not prove much, but they certainly show a difference between Balotelli playing alone or with one of his fellow forwards.

The former AC Milan man has played 593 minutes in the league and Champions League on his own up top for the Reds, compared to 235 with a partner, so his whole Liverpool career still only amounts to under ten games of pitch time in the two main competitions. Let’s look at how often Balotelli shoots, and from where on the pitch.

(See Image One)

The obvious thing to note here is that whilst the frequency of shot overall barely changes, Balotelli shoots more frequently inside the box when he has a partner, and more from distance when ploughing a lone furrow.

Another way to look at it is that solo Balo takes 39% of his shots in the box, but this rises to 67% when he has company up front. It won’t surprise you to see that Balotelli’s pass involvement in the box varies depending on how many strikers Brendan Rodgers puts on the pitch either.

(See Image Two)

Mario Balotelli has attempted just two passes in the box whilst playing up front on his own, with only one (against Ludogorets, in case you’re wondering) finding a teammate. He has received passes far more often in the box than that either with or without a partner, but as the final column shows, his involvement in passes in the penalty area virtually doubles when another Liverpool striker is on the pitch.

I’ve long voiced concerns that the Italian is a poor finisher, but the figures suggest that to get Balotelli involved in the opposition box and give him a realistic chance of actually scoring in the league, then Rodgers needs to give him some company up front.

[robgomm]

Obviously a small sample as you say but I honestly would not have seen him as being so poor as a lone striker before the season.

[jdpapa3]

Put together some radars for the season so far.

http://gingerjoeallen.blogspot.com/2014/11/liverpool-midfielders-and-forwards-at.html

[robgomm]

Put together some radars for the season so far.

http://gingerjoeallen.blogspot.com/2014/11/liverpool-midfielders-and-forwards-at.html

Very much agree about Flanno. And generally, an interesting set of radars. I love Can's as it speaks again to his ability to bring the ball out of midfield that will, I believe, become his trademark. He and Henderson is a two I really like in front of Gerrard, Lucas or Allen (who I do think is better in his own half, unless there's a need to press high such as Spurs last season).

[BassTunedToRed]

Finally got round to updating my chance combination stats
http://basstunedtored.com/lfc-creativity-combinations/liverpool-fc-creativity-combinations-201415/
The headlines....
Sterling to Sturridge created six chances in three games; no other combo this season has more than seven.
Henderson has created 4 of Liverpool's 9 big chances that the Reds have created themselves (as in not via opposition error etc).
We've only amassed 8 assists in 15 PL and CL games. Again, Hendo is top with 3, mainly as his big chances for Sterling and Lallana have been converted.

There's a terrible lack of creativity in our team right now (not that this is a newsflash or anything!).

[zabadoh]

Terrific article by Joseph Cousins on his KOPBLOG on TIA comparing our spending and revenue to other clubs in the Premier League era

hint:  it's depressing

http://www.thisisanfield.com/2014/11/kopblog-real-transition-period/

[BassTunedToRed]

Here's a depressing table for you... it shows how many goals teams in the PL have conceded away from home since Rodgers took charge at Liverpool. We've conceded two-or-more more times than any other team in that period :-(

In the last ten seasons of the Premier League, teams have on average only won 6% of the time when conceding at least twice, with 14% ending in a draw and 80% leading to a defeat.

Although Liverpool have been above average on this front historically, winning 18% of the time when conceding twice-or-more in the last ten years (with this figure given a boost by four wins from twelve in 2013/14), the fact is they can no longer rely on Suárez (permanently) or Sturridge (injury permitting) to bail them out of trouble. The Reds won at Stoke, Fulham, Cardiff, and Norwich despite conceding at least twice last season, and the aforementioned strike duo scored nine goals between them across these games.

Although a clean sheet is the obvious aim, even conceding just once (which Liverpool have done less often than any other team, as you can see in the table) would make a massive difference. The league average for wins rises to 31%, with Liverpool again exceeding this slightly with a 40% win rate when conceding once on the road.

Look at it another way; based on the last ten years of Premier League football, Liverpool have a 65% chance of at least a point when they conceded once away from home versus just 33% when their keeper is beaten at least twice. It’s essentially twice as likely that the Reds will have something to show for their exertions if they can limit the home side to a single goal.

Bleak.

[Lecter]

A quick look at 'Balotelli In The Box'...

There seems to be consensus online that both Mario Balotelli and the Liverpool team as a whole perform better when the £16m Italian international is partnered by another striker; ideally with Daniel Sturridge (as we saw at White Hart Lane), but also when alongside Rickie Lambert or Fabio Borini.

Whilst it is hard to quantify this performance improvement, I thought I’d take a quick look at Balotelli’s impact in the opposition penalty box when he has played alone compared to when he has had a strike partner.

It’s important to remember that the samples here are small, so may not prove much, but they certainly show a difference between Balotelli playing alone or with one of his fellow forwards.

The former AC Milan man has played 593 minutes in the league and Champions League on his own up top for the Reds, compared to 235 with a partner, so his whole Liverpool career still only amounts to under ten games of pitch time in the two main competitions. Let’s look at how often Balotelli shoots, and from where on the pitch.

(See Image One)

The obvious thing to note here is that whilst the frequency of shot overall barely changes, Balotelli shoots more frequently inside the box when he has a partner, and more from distance when ploughing a lone furrow.

Another way to look at it is that solo Balo takes 39% of his shots in the box, but this rises to 67% when he has company up front. It won’t surprise you to see that Balotelli’s pass involvement in the box varies depending on how many strikers Brendan Rodgers puts on the pitch either.

(See Image Two)

Mario Balotelli has attempted just two passes in the box whilst playing up front on his own, with only one (against Ludogorets, in case you’re wondering) finding a teammate. He has received passes far more often in the box than that either with or without a partner, but as the final column shows, his involvement in passes in the penalty area virtually doubles when another Liverpool striker is on the pitch.

I’ve long voiced concerns that the Italian is a poor finisher, but the figures suggest that to get Balotelli involved in the opposition box and give him a realistic chance of actually scoring in the league, then Rodgers needs to give him some company up front.

This kind of backs up my thinking regarding Mario and the team as a whole

[BassTunedToRed]

In case anyone is interested.... the attached table shows which players have linked up for assists this season.

Apart from Sterling to Henderson (and vice-versa) no combo has more than one. To put their tally of six into context, Sturridge and Suárez assisted each other ten times in total, so Sterling and Henderson are doing well (and may even beat ten by the end of the season).

[Homo rubrum]

Interesting… Any idea which positions the two were playing at the time of those goals? 

I'm guessing a lot of them were counters with the play switching sides and at least one of them wide to begin with, but the Sterling header vs Bournemouth disagrees.

[BassTunedToRed]

I'm going to have go from memory here...

Henderson to Sterling

Southampton at home
Spurs away
Bournemouth away

Sterling to Henderson

West Brom at home
Ludogorets away
Leicester away
(a.k.a all of Hendo's goal this season).

Position-wise, you're on your own 

[Halcyon Lissome]

It makes sense; they make most of the off-ball runs in our team.

[groove]

Post-Benitez Lucas Effectiveness.



9% higher win rate.
0.27 points per game better off (good for just over 10 extra points per year).

Difficulty columns shows average final (current for 14/15) position and points (extrapolated out over 38 games for 14/15) of the opposition team showing that he's played in very marginally more difficult games.
Not shown, but he is also very slightly more likely to have played away than at home.

[Marko B]

I like the Lucas comparison there. The thing that sticks out to me though, is not that we've conceded less when he's started (most would assume that to be the case) but that our GFPG is actually marginally higher.

Could this be because our "stable base" allows us to throw more resources at goal with impunity? Or that when the opposition haven't scored they are more likely to be open in seeking goals themselves hence making our job of scoring easier? Or is it something different, just random noise maybe?

Regardless, I thought it was surprising, considering the obvious conclusion would be to expect the inclusion of a near solely defensively minded player (as opposed to say Gerrard who even when playing in a defensive position still contributes to the attack) to reduce the amount of goals you score.

What makes the overall picture even more relevant is that he missed plenty of the drubbings we gave last season (scored 3.28 when not starting vs 2.1 when starting) which is the biggest outlier likely to skew the overall picture and yet the goals for overall are still in his favour. Seems highly relevant to me.

[zabadoh]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but here goes:

Various articles like this have the club estimating the new Main Stand to generate an additional £25m a season.

I wondering how much that's going to help us in the Money League, which statistically has strong correlation to league position.

Specifically, I wanted to compare ourselves to Arsenal, who occupy the next step up on the ladder in the PL, in terms of money.

Figures from the Deloitte Football Money League 2014, which uses 2012/13 figures

Our commercial revenue far outstrips theirs:

Liverpool:  £97.7m
Arsenal:  £62.4m

But our matchday revenue is much lower than theirs:

Liverpool:  £44.6m
Arsenal:  £92.8m

If we add the estimated £25m to our annual matchday income, what happens?

Liverpool:  £97.7m + £44.6m + £25m = £167.3m
Arsenal:  £62.4m + £92.8m = £155.2m

And that's not counting the revenue from the additional 6,000 seats that the Anfield Road end expansion will bring, although I don't think it will be a whole lot since none of those will be the ridiculously profitable corporate boxes.

Statistically, pulling ahead by 12m when budgets are in the hundreds isn't significant, but it helps not to be behind

--

Although it's pretty damned significant, I didn't want to include broadcast revenue which Arsenal have the edge on us because they consistently achieve CL football and we don't, and it will fluctuate every year depending on results on the field.

But in case you were wondering:

Liverpool:  £63.9m (PL 7th + Europa League exit rd 32)
Arsenal:  £88.4m (PL 4th + Champions League exit rd 16)

[groove]

In similar fashion to the with/without Lucas comparison I did one for the player who I actually think has been our most effective since he joined the club: Daniel Sturridge. When you look at his attributes he just offers so much in his all-round game. To me, he's always been more effective than Suarez in terms of winning you games. Suarez is more the more spectacular footballer, sure, he tries the lower percentage things and pulls them off slightly more often than your average striker. But Sturridge just does a few important things better. He's quicker, he has neater technique when moving with the ball and he is less wasteful in possession. Also, Suarez is one-paced. Sturridge can make the ball stick in the final third if you need it as well as take the short route if the situation requires.

He changes the dynamic dramatically when he's on the pitch. He can do the Michael Owen shoulder-of-the-last-defender thing better than Michael Owen could. He can go out wide for 5 minutes and skin the full back a few times. We've seen him put some wicked crosses in since he's been here (crosses for Balotelli at Spurs and for Lambert at City this season being the most recent examples; cross for Suarez at home to Chelsea 12/13 being my favourite). He can drop into midfield for a while as well. He really impressed me at Fulham away last year, a new level of maturity from him. And whilst all the back pages were full of Gerrard celebrating his winning penalty (rightly so, what a moment) it was Sturridge who got us a hand back in that game second half after scoring the equaliser in the first. First dropping into midfield because we were struggling to move the ball quick enough, finding Coutinho on the edge of the area who turned and scored. Then he went over to the left and tormented their full back into conceding the aforementioned penalty.

...I'll stop here and post the stats before this turns into a love letter.



Firstly, sample size. This is only two years worth of data. I used 4.5 seasons worth of data for the Lucas as ideally I'd like 5 seasons. I think 5 years of about 50/50 with/without games is probably the sweet spot. Less than two/three years of data and you're probably to open to variance in a teams natural deviation of performances over that period. Anything longer than 5-6 years and maybe some of the data starts to become meaningless. The team, the players around your subject, the manager's systems and even the game of football itself have changed too much for it to be relevant. I might be wrong in that case though.

I could've included the first half of the season 12/13 before we signed him to further nail the difference I think he causes. But as Coutinho was also signed at the same time who has also contributed a decent amount I thought it would be unfair.

Again, similar to Lucas, Sturridge has played in marginally more difficult games than ones he's missed so any argument of "Oh, well he's probably missed a disproportionate amount of difficult ties" can't be made.

Also these only include games that he's started. If I could be arsed I could do this on a minute by minute basis which could show all the games where he's come on and made a massive difference which would surely push the gap wider (debut vs United, comes on at HT and we win the 2nd half. Chelsea at home 12/13 comes on at HT and wins us the half again. Goodison Park last season, comes on and grabs the equaliser. Stoke away after his injury.)

Anyway, the bottom lines:

22% higher win rate. 0.66 points per game better off. 0.74 goals per game better off.

In the 40 games he has started, we have lost 4.

Those 4 losses were Southampton away (12/13), Southampton home (13/14), Arsenal away (13/14) and Man City away (14/15). Two of the three most difficult fixtures we generally face and two other still quite difficult ones.

2.25 points per game over 38 games is 86 points.

[Redondos Barber]

snip

I agree with your views on Sturridge; he is undoubtably a top class, multi-functional attacker. However any comparison between his impact on the team and Suarez' has to take into account their respective injury records and even with Suarez' suspensions, over his 3.5 seasons at the club the amount of games he missed is still less than what Sturridge has missed just so far this season.
Sturridge has everything as a forward, he is more or less complete, but unless he and the club can find some way to reduce the amount of games he misses, I don't think we could ever rely on him the way we did with Suarez.

[RedSince86]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but here goes:

Various articles like this have the club estimating the new Main Stand to generate an additional £25m a season.

I wondering how much that's going to help us in the Money League, which statistically has strong correlation to league position.

Specifically, I wanted to compare ourselves to Arsenal, who occupy the next step up on the ladder in the PL, in terms of money.

Figures from the Deloitte Football Money League 2014, which uses 2012/13 figures

Our commercial revenue far outstrips theirs:

Liverpool:  £97.7m
Arsenal:  £62.4m

But our matchday revenue is much lower than theirs:

Liverpool:  £44.6m
Arsenal:  £92.8m

If we add the estimated £25m to our annual matchday income, what happens?

Liverpool:  £97.7m + £44.6m + £25m = £167.3m
Arsenal:  £62.4m + £92.8m = £155.2m

And that's not counting the revenue from the additional 6,000 seats that the Anfield Road end expansion will bring, although I don't think it will be a whole lot since none of those will be the ridiculously profitable corporate boxes.

Statistically, pulling ahead by 12m when budgets are in the hundreds isn't significant, but it helps not to be behind

--

Although it's pretty damned significant, I didn't want to include broadcast revenue which Arsenal have the edge on us because they consistently achieve CL football and we don't, and it will fluctuate every year depending on results on the field.

But in case you were wondering:

Liverpool:  £63.9m (PL 7th + Europa League exit rd 32)
Arsenal:  £88.4m (PL 4th + Champions League exit rd 16)

We added a extra 40 odd million in commercial revenues from 4 deals with DunkinDonuts Subway Garuda and Vauxhall that will be on the next accounts.

[Hij]

People hate that word perspective, but look at this for instance. You'd imagine you'd get 5 or 6 full seasons out of all of the first category.

Players 25 or Under With Probable Long Term Future

Sakho 24
Moreno 22
Manquillo 20
Flanagan 22
Coutinho 22
Henderson 24
Can 21
Allen 24
Sterling 20
Ibe 19
Rossiter 17
Markovic 20
Sturridge 25
Origi 19

14 players. Average age: 21.35.

I've bolded the ones we can say are very important without a doubt at the moment. Perhaps some of the others go onto become that important, but without them the average age of the 9 players is: 22.44. I imagine more animosity at who I've not included in the bold, than who I have, which sort of proves the point of the squad strength in depth and their relative ages. Origi is playing already for Holland, Flanagan had a breakthrough season and is recovering, Manquillo has settled relatively well, and Ibe and Rossiter are still the good side of 20 with lots of time on their side.

Also in that category you have the following, who for various reasons, may not be here, but all have youth on their side (at least a full five premier league seasons barring being hampered with injury). Maybe I'm being hasty with Lovren, and if he does stay, he also has youth on his side relatively for a defender and could have 9 more seasons left in him, and maybe best we don't write him off just yet after what we've seen happen with Lucas and Henderson once they settled (albeit they did join at a younger age).

Lovren 25
Borini 23
Balotelli 24

Players 26 or over


Mignolet 26
Johnson 30
Toure 33
Skrtel 30
Gerrard 34
Lallana 26
Lucas 28
Lambert 32

I've bolded those who are more than likely to stay (at least next season for instance) and struck through those likely to leave. Ones blank could theoretically still be here or be gone depends on the transfer activity I guess. I imagine Lambert will stay as a third or fourth choice striker due to his love of the club and willingness to sit on the bench.

We actually have after this summers transfers a frighteningly young squad who are improving each week and have played 135 minutes without Gerrard and Sturridge (and Suarez) and won their last two away games.

There is no point to this post, other than my optimism that if we don't lose anyone vital to the team bar Gerrard, we should be looking at a bright dawn for Liverpool especially with a couple of the right additions dependent on who goes out to replace the ones likely to leave.

I won't be too disheartened if we don't manage to finish fourth. Would like to see us challenging on all fronts for the cups (a Europa League victory would be glorious, with CL qualification AND a cup), and I imagine we'll revert to being an unfancied surprised package the season after next. While the money for CL goes up next season, I think with money recouped and with a couple of decent signings to replace the likes of Lucas and Gerrard we'll be in with a shout of a very good league performance.

[zabadoh]

We added a extra 40 odd million in commercial revenues from 4 deals with DunkinDonuts Subway Garuda and Vauxhall that will be on the next accounts.

I'm too lazy to research and add up the effect of future sponsorships.  I assume that other top clubs such as Arsenal are also working their socks off to secure more valuable sponsorships and will do so at about the same rate that we do. 

For example, Arsenal have a shirt sponsorship with Puma which started this season which is worth up to £34m per season over their old agreement with Nike which was £8m per season.  This is also not reflected in the figures, and won't for another 2 years, because there's a lag.

If we do get past Arsenal, then comparing our income to Chelsea and Man City will be more difficult because the concept of sponsorship with them is b.s.

[JackWard33]

We've seen a MASSIVE improvement in our underlying numbers in the last 10/11 league games
Alarmingly (given the talent in the squad) we were a bang average mid table side by the numbers in our first 10 games but that's been turned around.

There are a lot of models out there but we're now clearly in the top 4 or 5 teams in the league (4th by SotR, 5th by most ExpG models) - there's also some good evidence that we've been overall 'unlucky' this season

Looking at the numbers and the other teams I'm really confident we'll finish ahead of Spurs and West Ham. Spurs have been really 'lucky' and are out pacing their underlying numbers, West Ham have benefited from a really easy schedule of late.

After that it's going to be close with United. We're clearly better than them based on the numbers but they have 5 more points in the bag and that counts for something
From the numbers we need Southampton to have a pretty big injury crisis to over take them - they're better than us in every regard (shocking but true) and have a 7 point lead.

Arsenal are the most under rated team as they're under performing their numbers - especially after yesterday I can't see them not finishing in the top 4.

So there we are - I think we're pretty likely to finish 5th or 6th.
Our most likely route to the top 4 if the numbers stay as they are in overhauling United and then one of Arsenal or Southampton - won't be easy and we'll probably need to keep improving

[BassTunedToRed]

Good post, Jack. I guess the only thing I'd counter is this, as you could say the same for us: "West Ham have benefited from a really easy schedule of late."

If you look at the top eight mini league for the season so far, I think you can make a case either way for us finishing fourth or not.

Team - Home to Play - Away to Play
Chelsea - 4 - 2
Liverpool - 4 - 3
Southampton - 3 - 2
Arsenal - 3 - 2
Manchester United - 3 - 3
Tottenham Hotspur - 3 - 3
Manchester City - 2 - 4
West Ham United - 2 - 5

Nobody has more home games than us – great!

Nobody has more games against the top teams than us - d’oh!

I guess which ever way you choose to look at it, we definitely have a chance to make ground on the teams above us as we play all of them. I think your prediction of 5th or 6th will probably be right though (unfortunately!).

[Crosby Nick]

Good post, Jack. I guess the only thing I'd counter is this, as you could say the same for us: "West Ham have benefited from a really easy schedule of late."

If you look at the top eight mini league for the season so far, I think you can make a case either way for us finishing fourth or not.

Team - Home to Play - Away to Play
Chelsea - 4 - 2
Liverpool - 4 - 3
Southampton - 3 - 2
Arsenal - 3 - 2
Manchester United - 3 - 3
Tottenham Hotspur - 3 - 3
Manchester City - 2 - 4
West Ham United - 2 - 5

Nobody has more home games than us – great!

Nobody has more games against the top teams than us - d’oh!

I guess which ever way you choose to look at it, we definitely have a chance to make ground on the teams above us as we play all of them. I think your prediction of 5th or 6th will probably be right though (unfortunately!).

Interesting that. Looking at it more closely you'd have to say (or at least hope!) that West Ham will fall away with only 2 home games there and 5 away ones. Big Sam will largely play for a point and try and out-tactic the teams around him like he did at Chelsea last season and he'll probably get it on 2-3 occasions but you'd think they'll drop plenty of points in those games.

Our 3 away games there are Chelsea, Arsenal and Southampton. The first two we have bad records at so anything would be a bonus I think. We really can't afford to lose to Southampton though. A repeat of last season would be nice!

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

In similar fashion to the with/without Lucas comparison I did one for the player who I actually think has been our most effective since he joined the club: Daniel Sturridge. When you look at his attributes he just offers so much in his all-round game. To me, he's always been more effective than Suarez in terms of winning you games. Suarez is more the more spectacular footballer, sure, he tries the lower percentage things and pulls them off slightly more often than your average striker. But Sturridge just does a few important things better. He's quicker, he has neater technique when moving with the ball and he is less wasteful in possession. Also, Suarez is one-paced. Sturridge can make the ball stick in the final third if you need it as well as take the short route if the situation requires.

He changes the dynamic dramatically when he's on the pitch. He can do the Michael Owen shoulder-of-the-last-defender thing better than Michael Owen could. He can go out wide for 5 minutes and skin the full back a few times. We've seen him put some wicked crosses in since he's been here (crosses for Balotelli at Spurs and for Lambert at City this season being the most recent examples; cross for Suarez at home to Chelsea 12/13 being my favourite). He can drop into midfield for a while as well. He really impressed me at Fulham away last year, a new level of maturity from him. And whilst all the back pages were full of Gerrard celebrating his winning penalty (rightly so, what a moment) it was Sturridge who got us a hand back in that game second half after scoring the equaliser in the first. First dropping into midfield because we were struggling to move the ball quick enough, finding Coutinho on the edge of the area who turned and scored. Then he went over to the left and tormented their full back into conceding the aforementioned penalty.

...I'll stop here and post the stats before this turns into a love letter.



Firstly, sample size. This is only two years worth of data. I used 4.5 seasons worth of data for the Lucas as ideally I'd like 5 seasons. I think 5 years of about 50/50 with/without games is probably the sweet spot. Less than two/three years of data and you're probably to open to variance in a teams natural deviation of performances over that period. Anything longer than 5-6 years and maybe some of the data starts to become meaningless. The team, the players around your subject, the manager's systems and even the game of football itself have changed too much for it to be relevant. I might be wrong in that case though.

I could've included the first half of the season 12/13 before we signed him to further nail the difference I think he causes. But as Coutinho was also signed at the same time who has also contributed a decent amount I thought it would be unfair.

Again, similar to Lucas, Sturridge has played in marginally more difficult games than ones he's missed so any argument of "Oh, well he's probably missed a disproportionate amount of difficult ties" can't be made.

Also these only include games that he's started. If I could be arsed I could do this on a minute by minute basis which could show all the games where he's come on and made a massive difference which would surely push the gap wider (debut vs United, comes on at HT and we win the 2nd half. Chelsea at home 12/13 comes on at HT and wins us the half again. Goodison Park last season, comes on and grabs the equaliser. Stoke away after his injury.)

Anyway, the bottom lines:

22% higher win rate. 0.66 points per game better off. 0.74 goals per game better off.

In the 40 games he has started, we have lost 4.

Those 4 losses were Southampton away (12/13), Southampton home (13/14), Arsenal away (13/14) and Man City away (14/15). Two of the three most difficult fixtures we generally face and two other still quite difficult ones.

2.25 points per game over 38 games is 86 points.

you a pro football trader/speculator?

[groove]

you a pro football trader/speculator?

Former professional poker player. Know a couple of independent pro sports bettors. Always take a free tip from them

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

Former professional poker player. Know a couple of independent pro sports bettors. Always take a free tip from them

i figured so

[groove]

A few times now I've heard a commentator or pundit bring up Sergio Aguero's impressive minutes per goal ratio for City. Got me wondering what Sturridge's looks like for us. Thought it would be maybe near. Didn't think it'd be better though.



Slightly better conversion rate too.

The final section I added to highlight the obvious weakness they share: injuries.

[sturridginho]

A few times now I've heard a commentator or pundit bring up Sergio Aguero's impressive minutes per goal ratio for City. Got me wondering what Sturridge's looks like for us. Thought it would be maybe near. Didn't think it'd be better though.



Slightly better conversion rate too.

The final section I added to highlight the obvious weakness they share: injuries.

Wow thats impressive, imo he is a top 5 striker in world football and would only put him behind Aguero in the league but looking at that maybe I have underestimated how good he is. I remember a post comparing him to Henry at similar age and he was beating him in most aspects.
We have a special player

[diegoLFC7]

Sturridge is no doubt one of the most clinical finishers in world football. If he could stay healthy he could have a very successful career.

[Redman0151]

Sturridge needs to stay fit for ~18 months and keep his goalscoring record up, if he does he'll be considered one of the best in the world. Until then he won't be talked about on that level

[Samie]

Let all these deluded fans and team's underestimate Sturridge.  When he leaves their players for dead and scores then they'll know. 

[BassTunedToRed]

@WhoScored: Philippe Coutinho: Since joining Liverpool in Jan 2013, no player has created more clear-cut chances in the PL than @Phil_Coutinho (27) #lfc

Suárez would have more by now if he'd stayed I would imagine, but even so, nice work, Phil!