This game could be a mirror image of the Villa game if we are not careful tactically. Although Fulham won't have the same type of Battering Ram forward that Villa had in Benteke, they do have the subtlety of Berbatov, some physicality from Rodallega, and the workrate and trickiness of Duff for us to be concerned about.
Having seen how Villa did damage to our backline, It wouldn't be surprising to see Jol play a 4-4-2 rather than a 4-4-1-1, to take advantage of the gap between Agger and Skrtel on transition that Villa clearly targeted. Although the make-up of the two forwards will be different, and they will play off different dynamics, if either Agger or Skrtel have a bad day, it could be a repeat of the Villa game - early dominance, no reward, 1 or 2 counterattacks and suddenly we're in trouble from a seeming position of strength. Tactically, this might be a game for BR to start with a back three and see how things develop. We can still dominate possession, and our attack isn't exactly firing on all cylinders in terms of goals, so it's not as if we will be tampering with a winning formula. On the other hand, our central area will be better protected, and perhaps a stouter defence might lend the attack a degree of patience by not making them think they HAVE to score on every attack because the other team are bound to get one. This relaxedness might translate to better shots on target, and hopefully goals, if we go for a 3-5-2. If we play our usual 4-3-3 though, there might be a nervousness about us that translates to mistakes again, on an individual level.
In terms of attacking spaces, we could see us focus on their right side, through our left. Alternatively, if Lucas is feeling strong, he might look to get some of his decent through balls to Sterling or Johnson. If we attack down the left, it's probably going to be Downing LB and Enrique as the winger (if fit), with some overlapping and early crosses. Unfortunately, the opposite side will be occupied most likely by Sterling, who isn't adept at getting on the end of those types of balls. What could be successful is Lucas playing through to Johnson on the overlap of Sterling, and Enrique getting into the back post area on the end of a Johnson cross. Alternatively, the pattern might develop as Lucas - Johnson - Suarez - Enrique. Either way, if Enrique is fit, getting him running into that area and getting the ball across Schwarzer might generate a goal - Schwarzer is a puncher, and if he messes one up Enrique has shown an eye for being in the right area behind the keeper on the weak side.
Midfield will be interesting, as one or both of Gerrard and Allen need a break, as they did against Villa. Whether BR will drop either is a big question. If he does, it's possibly more likely to be Allen than the captain. Henderson might be perceived as an impact sub, but this is a game he could see a start in. Alternatively, if Sahin is able to play, he might get a return beside Lucas. If he does, expect to see a more varied attack in terms of releasing both Enrique and Johnson, with Sterling cutting inside.
Assuming we play the usual back four, Lucas will also be important in dropping between Skrtel and Agger on transition. This will be especially helpful given that they play through Berbatov a lot (if he plays). Disrupting this supply line will give Agger and Skrtel time to recover into support positions to take care of Rodallega's runs (if Rodallega supports Berbatov up front). Duff likes to cut in on the right, so Downing will have to be alert to this constantly. On the other hand, it gives Downing the chance to intercept a little better, as the passes will be coming into his stride on his strong foot. Sidwell and Baird are solid, but they can be beaten easily with quick play on attack and defence. Baird doesn't give the ball away too easily, but he can be caught out of position, while Sidwell - strong in the tackle - has an errant eye for a pass and might give the ball back easily to either our central defenders or one of the fullbacks. For this reason, it might be better for the midfield to have a base of Lucas-Sahin for positional discipline in order to take advantage of Sidwell and Baird's combined frailties. Having the third central mid, be it Gerrard, Allen, Shelvey or Henderson, will give us the opportunity to outnumber them too, and hurt them in the space between midfield and defence which Baird will inevitable leave at some point. For this reason, then, Suso might be the better bet, but will BR be brave enough to go for a Lucas-Sahin-Suso midfield after a shock defeat? Probably not, but that midfield might be better placed to take advantage of the Sidwell-Baird axis than a Lucas-Gerrard-Allen one.
Overall, Fulham will sit back in their defensive third and midfield, and we will probably have our usual abundance of possession, while they will look to hit us down the middle on the break, with Duff cutting in to support the two forwards, and Kacaniklic initiating passes into the central space, or Sidwell/Baird looking for Duff/Kacaniklic. Riise will make a few overlapping runs, although I think he will be less adventurous as we remember him for us. If BR goes for the 4-3-3, and plays a central axis of Lucas-Gerrard-Allen, it will be both predictable and playable for Fulham. If he throws a few wrinkles in, though, we could overrun the Fulham midfield, keep it high and tight in the back (with Lucas dropping) and we would only have to use Suarez as a dummy run and serve balls to Enrique from the right or Sterling/Johnson from the left to give ourselves some good chances to put the ball in the net. Add to that any sparks of skill from Suarez, and once again we can see the optimistic side of a good win. Unfortunately, we might also see the total collapse of our defensive structure and a goal or two against us if we switch off like we did against Villa, or if BR doesn't recognize when the other team has developed a plan against us.
