Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24  (Read 78864 times)

Offline Prof

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The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« on: August 2, 2023, 03:58:41 pm »
The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24

This is a continuation of the last twelve APLT threads which ran over the last twelve seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191
2018-19 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340730
2019-20 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=343471
2020-21 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=345980
2021-22 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=349054
2022-23 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=352803.0

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the featured teams indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.



The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

« Last Edit: November 26, 2023, 07:57:38 pm by Prof »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #1 on: August 3, 2023, 01:30:20 am »
You c*nt thought you were retiring? I take back my gratitude.  :wave

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #2 on: August 3, 2023, 01:37:09 am »
As I’m colour blind, what are you on about?
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Offline scalatore

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #3 on: August 3, 2023, 02:06:20 am »
Psst, Prof, the Newcastle column isn't correct. Edit: the second Newcastle column, I mean... Probably shouldn't be there!

Always good to see this thread pop up. Hope it's more fun to follow this season

Offline RedG13

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #4 on: August 3, 2023, 02:18:41 am »
Psst, Prof, the Newcastle column isn't correct. Edit: the second Newcastle column, I mean... Probably shouldn't be there!

Always good to see this thread pop up. Hope it's more fun to follow this season
Probably should be Brighton
Great to see this thread back

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #5 on: August 3, 2023, 02:27:36 am »
Psst, Prof, the Newcastle column isn't correct. Edit: the second Newcastle column, I mean... Probably shouldn't be there!

Always good to see this thread pop up. Hope it's more fun to follow this season
Oops

Thanks for letting me know.  Not sure what I did there  ;D

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #6 on: August 3, 2023, 10:48:22 am »
Cheers Prof. Let's hope we start strong
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #7 on: August 3, 2023, 11:07:25 am »
Very happy to see this continuing Prof thanks for all your hard work 👍

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #8 on: August 3, 2023, 11:10:13 am »
OK, the fixtures are updated now, if anyone sees any more errors, please give me a shout

I think it shows how tough our start is in real terms.  The first 8 matches have 5 aways at par 1s, so our overall par score after 8 games is only 14 points.  Really, we want to be getting some credit in the bank, but certainly can't afford to be below that level.

Arsenal and Chelsea both have the opposite, with a par of 22 for their first 8 matches, so I'd expect them to be outperforming us in the real table at that point, but Arsenal in particular will need to have a fast start with 3 big teams at home in order to meet their par total for this period.  It will be interesting how the difference they had in league performance last year impacts on them psychologically this season.  Arsenal are being talked up as title challenges and Chelsea are very much not in that conversation so have far less pressure from expectation.  A fast start with a comparatively easy first 8 might see them get some momentum into the season.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #9 on: August 3, 2023, 12:14:46 pm »
OK, the fixtures are updated now, if anyone sees any more errors, please give me a shout

You forgot to include Everton :wave
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #10 on: August 4, 2023, 12:10:22 am »
OK, the fixtures are updated now, if anyone sees any more errors, please give me a shout

I think it shows how tough our start is in real terms.  The first 8 matches have 5 aways at par 1s, so our overall par score after 8 games is only 14 points.  Really, we want to be getting some credit in the bank, but certainly can't afford to be below that level.

Arsenal and Chelsea both have the opposite, with a par of 22 for their first 8 matches, so I'd expect them to be outperforming us in the real table at that point, but Arsenal in particular will need to have a fast start with 3 big teams at home in order to meet their par total for this period.  It will be interesting how the difference they had in league performance last year impacts on them psychologically this season.  Arsenal are being talked up as title challenges and Chelsea are very much not in that conversation so have far less pressure from expectation.  A fast start with a comparatively easy first 8 might see them get some momentum into the season.
If your willing to have an 8th team think Brighton should be considered for it. I doubt our dropping Chelsea or Spurs but I like their odds at top 4ish more then Chelsea or Spurs right now with coaching changes and roster changes.
I feel like the first 8-10 games for Liverpool are trickier with the bedding in period for the new players, getting the par score or just over it would feel good about that as I will think the team has talent be very good when everybody up to speed a couple months into the season more then day 1.
Arsenal MF seems an issue with the changes right now going under par early and having make it up with the run in might be tough.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #11 on: August 4, 2023, 12:11:38 am »
Excellent. Rumours of the demise of the APLT prove to be unfounded.

As I do every season may I request that Everton are on the graph, just so we can see them plunge into obscurity after a few weeks?





(It's OK, it's a request I don't actually expect to ever be granted, but there's profound comedy in making it ;D )
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #12 on: August 4, 2023, 06:57:20 am »
All I can say is thank you, Prof! I doff my hat to you all the way!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #13 on: August 4, 2023, 11:19:57 am »
Prof - think there is am error on the City table as you have Liverpool at home highlighted as a Par 1
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #14 on: August 5, 2023, 06:52:45 pm »
Love stuff like this. Glad you’re still going to do it.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2023, 10:05:57 pm »
Legend - Love this every year

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2023, 06:38:19 pm »

Offline flashman

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2023, 06:52:37 pm »
👍

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2023, 08:01:18 pm »
Only just realised I didn't follow this last season, can't think why I didn't miss it....Glad to be back.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2023, 10:12:42 pm »
Given that Chelsea finished on the bottom half last season, doesn’t that make it +1 for them and -2 for us??”
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2023, 10:31:37 pm »
Given that Chelsea finished on the bottom half last season, doesn’t that make it +1 for them and -2 for us??”

It's top 12 aways as par 1s I think. Chelsea squeak in. It would be something of an anomaly for them not to be anyway as they are realistically a top 4 challenger.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2023, 12:21:09 am »
It's top 12 aways as par 1s I think. Chelsea squeak in. It would be something of an anomaly for them not to be anyway as they are realistically a top 4 challenger.
Top 13, because the featured teams can't play themselves so it makes 12 par 1s

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2023, 07:28:28 pm »
Top 13, because the featured teams can't play themselves so it makes 12 par 1s
Ah!


Damn! I thought I’d caught you out for once ;D
“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
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Offline courty61

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2023, 09:28:55 am »
Arsenal make the first positive move on the APLT - Chelsea already playing catch up...
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2023, 09:55:38 am »
Man, that graph from last season is a grim reminder that we were shite from the get go...

We didn't make it above the 71 point line at any stage of the season.

Better start this season for sure.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2023, 12:31:57 pm »
Arsenal make the first positive move on the APLT - Chelsea already playing catch up...

It seems like Man City have an easy start to the season, there is no opportunity for them to gain points in the first 5 games.

Brighton are also technically on the same level as Arsenal, though they'll fall off.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2023, 11:03:54 pm »
Chelsea already on -5, which is nice to see. Even Everton are only -4.
Anyone else being strangely drawn to Dion Dublin's nipples?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #27 on: August 24, 2023, 08:55:40 pm »

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #28 on: August 24, 2023, 08:59:06 pm »
Prof - think there is am error on the City table as you have Liverpool at home highlighted as a Par 1
Good spot.  Thanks for flagging this.  I've amended the OP now  :thumbup

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2023, 09:00:10 pm »
Thanks for doing this Prof, followed it for years.  good stuff.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #30 on: August 26, 2023, 07:57:14 pm »
-2 for Arsenal back to 0

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #31 on: August 26, 2023, 09:24:19 pm »
You know when Prof starts an Alternative-thread, it's one of those seasons! ;D
Hopefully, it will be like 19/20 when the Alternative-thread disappeared from the first page a few months into the season.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2023, 09:37:37 pm by the_red_pill »
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In such a sumptuous festival of shite, I wouldn't be so quick to pick a winner..

But he'd make the shortlist

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2023, 06:52:18 pm »







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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2023, 06:54:48 pm »
What a sight! Thanks, Prof!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2023, 07:23:53 pm »
Amazing win with 10 men  :wellin

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2023, 07:28:42 pm »
Wow!  Considering we expected to be way behind our competitors this early that is superb work so far 👍

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #36 on: August 27, 2023, 07:37:46 pm »
Cruyff: "Victory is not enough, there also needs to be beautiful football."

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2023, 07:50:57 pm »
Man, that graph from last season is a grim reminder that we were shite from the get go...

We didn't make it above the 71 point line at any stage of the season.

Better start this season for sure.

Another way of looking at it is that in the 2nd half of the season Liverpool were only 3 points below par, and closed the gap on every team bar City.

Offline RedG13

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #38 on: August 27, 2023, 08:41:21 pm »
Thanks for Update prof. Nice sight early in the season

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24
« Reply #39 on: August 27, 2023, 08:42:52 pm »
Thanks Prof
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