The Alternative Premier League Table 2012-13
This is a continuation of the original APLT thread which ran last season and can be found here: http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916
. The blog I used to write occasional summaries (until I lost all faith in January) can be found here: rawkprof.blogspot.co.uk
For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points of the season. This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches. I refer to these as the ‘par results’. As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.
The fixture list below for the top seven teams indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.
As with last season, Liverpool have a difficult opening run of fixtures, with all of their first seven away matches being par 1s. For Liverpool, 28 points from the first 14 matches will be ‘title winning form’ assuming the APLT model is correct.
As a contrast; Chelsea, Man City, Spurs and Newcastle all have four par 1s, with Man Utd and Arsenal both having five par 1s in the opening 14 matches. Therefore, Liverpool could be between 4 and 6 points worse off to their rivals at this point, but with ‘more-winnable’ matches remaining in their fixture list, this gap could be closed.
This means that the APLT will place Liverpool higher in the table than in the real league table early in the season to reflect their more difficult start to the season.
If you have any doubts about the reliability of the model, the tables below show the results of the 26 par 3s and 12 par 1s for each of the six originally featured teams.
As I illustrated in depth last season, the predictability of results in the par 1s is actually quite low (title winning teams over achieve as a rule to offset dropped points in the par 3 matches), but title winning teams must
win most if not all of their par 3 matches. Last season, Man City won 24 out of their 26 par 3s (they drew at home to Sunderland and lost away at Swansea – not exactly the most predictable banana skins if the pars are assigned before the season starts).
Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below). If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points and positive gradient.
The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish. Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.
I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season. If we don’t win away at West Brom in match 1, it isn’t a complete disaster.