Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18

[Prof]

The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18

This is a continuation of the last six APLT threads which ran over the last six seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top six teams from last season indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.



The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

[JasonF]

Just replying to keep track of it. Keep up the good work.

[Brian Blessed]

Nice one, I'll be following as always.

Our Par 1s are nicely spread out, but then they are for almost every team except Manchester City who have it rough at the arse end. The upside for them, though, is by then they could have a great deal of momentum due to the relatively easy start.

Our nicest run starts on Boxing Day, so hopefully we'll have a nicer January this season.

[BoRed]

How come our game at Man Utd is listed as our 30th game and their 32nd game?

[TheShanklyGates]

Great to see this back.

Three par 3s to kick us off so we should be looking to achieve maximum points.

[NHRed]

It's back!!!!

In before the whinging about methodology

[me76]

Love your work Prof!

[Cohiba]

Lovely to see this back, Prof. Really pleasing - thank you for all your efforts over the season updating and producing this thread.

[sikingthegreat1]

this surely means the season is starting real soon!

anyway one of the most interesting threads to me, will definitely follow it throughout the season~~

[Brian Blessed]

How come our game at Man Utd is listed as our 30th game and their 32nd game?

Looks like a few misplacements. Manchester Untied have Manchester City listed that week, when it looks like it's Chelsea/City. The following week Manchester Untied and Chelsea both have Crystal Palace listed. Week 33 has Everton for us and City.

[Prof]

Looks like a few misplacements. Manchester Untied have Manchester City listed that week, when it looks like it's Chelsea/City. The following week Manchester Untied and Chelsea both have Crystal Palace listed. Week 33 has Everton for us and City.

I'll check it out tomorrow.  Thanks both for flagging them up.

[Ycuzz]

Another great sign that it's soon kicking off..

[mikey_LFC]

Would it be possible to show how, if all went according to plan for each team, 90 points would be accumulated across the season?

So showing the teams with less par 1s going ahead in actual points in the regular table and then falling back in line towards the end of the season.

This would visibly show where each team should be at any stage of the season.

[Prof]

I've updated the fixture list.

If you're interested... The cells on the worksheet used a formula from the results sheet, when I changed the order last season when fixtures were rearraged, this updated the order on the second sheet.  In other words, a rookie mistake 

 

[Brian Blessed]

I've updated the fixture list.

If you're interested... The cells on the worksheet used a formula from the results sheet, when I changed the order last season when fixtures were rearraged, this updated the order on the second sheet.  In other words, a rookie mistake 

 

Nice one, thanks Prof.

[Prof]

Would it be possible to show how, if all went according to plan for each team, 90 points would be accumulated across the season?

So showing the teams with less par 1s going ahead in actual points in the regular table and then falling back in line towards the end of the season.

This would visibly show where each team should be at any stage of the season.

I've shown this before, but it doesn't come out very well.  There might be another option to compare to the  virtual leader at any stage - I'll have a go

[Prof]

Nice one, thanks Prof.

No problem.  Can you just check them over to make  sure it's right now please? 

[Blinis]

One of the best thread on RAWK is back! Thanks Prof! I keep thinking that your model is the most parsimonious around and remains very informative, especially during the first half of the season.

[Prof]

Is this a better view?  Man City at the top of the virtual league almost all the way through

[Brian Blessed]

No problem.  Can you just check them over to make  sure it's right now please? 

Haha, as you wish

[Brian Blessed]

Okay, the fixture orders perfectly match the PL website (with Everton Arsenal pending, but I assume you have it where it was originally placed. Any idea why it's TBA?)


There were a couple par 3s and par 1s swapped. MU v Arsenal week 36 should be white, WHU v MU week 31 should be coloured.

Chelsea v Spurs week 32 should be coloured, Spurs v Newcastle week 31 should be white.

[Prof]

Okay, the fixture orders perfectly match the PL website (with Everton Arsenal pending, but I assume you have it where it was originally placed. Any idea why it's TBA?)


There were a couple par 3s and par 1s swapped. MU v Arsenal week 36 should be white, WHU v MU week 31 should be coloured.

Chelsea v Spurs week 32 should be coloured, Spurs v Newcastle week 31 should be white.

Bloody hell. I'm having a mare 

Thanks

I'll try again 

[GregCharrua]

Prof! thanks!

Now it REALLY feels like the season is starting! 

[Prof]

Bloody hell. I'm having a mare 

Thanks

I'll try again 

Fixed? 

[Brian Blessed]

Bloody hell. I'm having a mare 

Thanks

I'll try again 

No, not at all! Your huge efforts are very much appreciated.

[mikey_LFC]

Is this a better view?  Man City at the top of the virtual league almost all the way through

Maybe show similar to this but with average points as the centre, so show the variance of each side above and below 2.368 points per game.

Or just position in the top 6?

[mikey_LFC]

The attached table shows the predicted positions throughout the season if everyone matched the alternative Par value results exactly (where positions are the same Alphabetical order has been used - hence Arsenal finishing top):

[only6times]

Get a woman in your life.

[Thush]

So glad to see this is back. Thanks to dudleyred for pointing me in the right direction.

[farawayred]

A thread to follow. (Ignore my post)

[Prof]

I'll do the update tomorrow as my laptop charger is broken and the new one arrives tomorrow.  Everyone had par 3s so there's no difference to the real league table at this point.

We are - 2, Chelsea are - 3.  The other four are level par.

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Round 1

[RooiBefok]

APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Round 1

[Cantona]

6th 

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

6th 

[Nessy76]

6th 

 

[sminp]

Man U 0
Chelsea -1
Arsenal -1
Liverpool -2
Man City -2
Spurs -3

[Prof]

[McSquared]

Whats the deal with everton being in it? Have you got a big enough negative y axis?

[Prof]

Whats the deal with everton being in it? Have you got a big enough negative y axis?

I need to have a team to drop half way through