Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[PaleBlueDot]

You're getting stick for this but it is worthy of discussion I think.

The Nunez discussions are basically around what we can measure. No doubt about it, he puts up elite 'expected' numbers. I've said it before on here that some year he's going to have everything fall right for him and score an absolute boatload. Call it regression to the mean, the law of averages, or whatever you want - it probably will happen.

But there are things you can't measure. I think of it as opportunity cost - what are we giving up for Nunez to hit these numbers? It goes back to the idea of players being 'multipliers' - the best teams are greater than the sum of their parts. When you look at our title winning or CL winning teams, and see guys like Gini or Henderson - they didn't look great on paper. But we played better with them in the team right? They added things that you can't really measure. We could have replaced Gini with a player who puts up great attacking numbers, but if the team lost it's solidity and ball retention, would it be an upgrade or downgrade?

So I look at Nunez now, and try to imagine he matched his xG this season. Undoubtedly we'd have done better, because we scored more goals. But is he being a multiplier? When he's offside so often, slows the play down with bad touches, and under-hits passes. There isn't a stat out there we can use to measure if the team would have performed better.

If I imagine a Nunez who scores, vs peak Firmino for example, which team do I think performs better? On paper Nunez is beating Firmino every day of the week. But going back to the opportunity cost - he's detrimental to the rest of our build up play. And that has a knock on effect for the defence too - the opponents get to reset with the offsides, and the get to counter more often with the misplays.

So going back to your original point around team performance - it's a perfectly valid question to ask. Benfica might have downgraded individually, while having a multiplier effect on the team as a whole that allows them to compete better.

I think this is a good post but Cpt_Reina's suggestion that Nunez has cost us titles I'd have to hard disagree with. One player can't lose you trophies. I get there can be a keeper with 3 howlers in a cup final that's different. There are way too many variables and reasons in football. It's a 38 game season. If you actually come away thinking one player has cost you somehow then its also on the team and the manager.

As for the rest of your post, you've basically summed up what I have been trying to articulate about Nunez and what it means for the team overall. I also think he will hit a hot streak soon and score lots but I feel like there is enough seen to think he won't be a reliable and consistent number 9. I do not say this because of his misses either...I think missing even 30 big chances is abnormal but its how you miss them that counts. If you could see what he was trying to do...a certain style of finish or even just opening up his body and trying a curler into the corner. Something normal...it would be encouraging. Its all just either smashes or ridiculous chips that leave you perplexed. I have doubts over whether this can be fixed. Suarez missed a boat load but there wasn't a doubt over his technique. This is why I think while his underlying numbers are good we can improve on him by bringing someone else who does more overall and the team benefits.

I don't think he will leave in the summer. He's the least likely out of him, Salah and Diaz to go but I would want some kind of competition or Danns being promoted to the bench. I really hope I am wrong and something clicks for him but I remain skeptical for now. To be proven wrong would be lovely.

[Eeyore]

What are you talking about? You keep bringing up Suarez like he was a bum before he came to us. He's always been an elite finisher. If anything the first couple of seasons with us were the anomaly. Shit ton of class, composed, technical finishes right here.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/hpb-7HfkJ0o?si=2wRM8adZOZi5XRej" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/hpb-7HfkJ0o?si=2wRM8adZOZi5XRej</a>

Nunez was the same at Benfica loads of good technical finishes.. That is the entire point. Nunez's two seasons here up to now have been the anomaly.

If you want to see Nunez's finishing then look at the three he put past Ali. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIQp9F1jEPM

[istvan kozma]

Nunez was the same at Benfica loads of good technical finishes.. That is the entire point. Nunez's two seasons here up to now have been the anomaly.

If you want to see Nunez's finishing then look at the three he put past Ali. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIQp9F1jEPM

No it isn't, the anomaly is his last season at Benfica. 3 out of his last 4 seasons have been mediocre. Unless he scores 4 more goals this season he will have failed to get 15 league goals in 3 out of 4 seasons.

[Eeyore]

No it isn't, the anomaly is his last season at Benfica. 3 out of his last 4 seasons have been mediocre. Unless he scores 4 more goals this season he will have failed to get 15 league goals in 3 out of 4 seasons.

The same as Jota?

[Zlen]

Honestly, nobody cares any longer. Darwin will have about half a season (if he starts as first striker at all) before he is permanently demoted to the bench and slowly phased out. New manager can't afford to gamble full seson on him, if he gambles on him at all. So we'll all know soon enough what's the end game here. He will definitely be given enough support and instructions after his season review. If he has it - it will show next season.

[Eeyore]

Honestly, nobody cares any longer. Darwin will have about half a season (if he starts as first striker at all) before he is permanently demoted to the bench and slowly phased out. New manager can't afford to gamble full seson on him, if he gambles on him at all. So we'll all know soon enough what's the end game here. He will definitely be given enough support and instructions after his season review. If he has it - it will show next season.

Who can he gamble on then?

[istvan kozma]

The same as Jota?

So you want Nunez to be sold, just like you want Jota to be sold?

[Eeyore]

So you want Nunez to be sold, just like you want Jota to be sold?

When did I say I wanted Jota to be sold. I quite clearly said after signing Gakpo that the forwards were imbalanced we had Diaz, Nunez, Gakpo and Jota who preferred playing from the left. I stated that if we wanted to sacrifice one of them to bring in right sided attacker with explosive pace then Jota was the most likely to be sold.

I think that is entirely fair. Jota was the first of the predominantly left-sided attackers we had brought in. Hadn't nailed down a starting spot and had injury issues. He didn't have the pace to play as a Klopp wide attacker, didn't have the physicality to play as an out and out 9 and was best suited to an old-fashioned inside left position.

Things may well have changed because Slot tends to play with a wide attacker who tends to drift into the positions that would suit Jota and who becomes almost a 2nd 10.

[PEG2K]

Okay that is a fair enough response but the question still boils down to who's more effective in terms of output which was my main point which you previously did agree with.

Is it a case of Nunez wasting all the chances but the xA is only 5 and Nunez has only performed under his xG by 4 while Diaz & Salah are also underperforming xG?

So what is more important xA and xG or SCA and big chances missed?

There is no point digging deep into that bold part, or if there is, we have to watch all the shots they have taken to come to a conclusion. It could also be a case that the way Diaz is playing, he tends to be involved in many SCAs which are not really good chances (in other words, he created very low quality chances), but then the question needs to be asked why the shot takers took those chances? This is pure guessing though.

I don't even know what the original point was or what are we debating, since I have always maintained too, that Diaz is all running without significant end products, and if a good offer comes in for him (from PSG), we should sell.

The only relevant thing in this thread is, as someone asked before, why Nunez receives more criticism compared to Diaz while both are not producing enough. And as I have pointed out too, that's because Nunez contributes less, much less in fact, than Diaz in our general play (you can clearly see that in the stats comparison I posted). In other words, although Diaz is not producing enough goals or assists, he's still... running around a lot, contributing to our general play, so people give him more leeway. And since Nunez is not involved in our general play very much (least in the team, as the stats pointed out), he better make up for it by end products. But his current numbers are still not good enough.

[Zlen]

Who can he gamble on then?

Who the hell knows, Gakpo, Salah… we don’t know how will it all look. But I don’t think he can spend the entire season expecting Nunez to come good if he continues with his patchy form.

[mullyred94]

There is no point digging deep into that bold part, or if there is, we have to watch all the shots they have taken to come to a conclusion. It could also be a case that the way Diaz is playing, he tends to be involved in many SCAs which are not really good chances (in other words, he created very low quality chances), but then the question needs to be asked why the shot takers took those chances? This is pure guessing though.

I don't even know what the original point was or what are we debating, since I have always maintained too, that Diaz is all running without significant end products, and if a good offer comes in for him (from PSG), we should sell.

The only relevant thing in this thread is, as someone asked before, why Nunez receives more criticism compared to Diaz while both are not producing enough. And as I have pointed out too, that's because Nunez contributes less, much less in fact, than Diaz in our general play (you can clearly see that in the stats comparison I posted). In other words, although Diaz is not producing enough goals or assists, he's still... running around a lot, contributing to our general play, so people give him more leeway. And since Nunez is not involved in our general play very much (least in the team, as the stats pointed out), he better make up for it by end products. But his current numbers are still not good enough.

To be honest I have forgotten what we are debating as well mate.

I just believe personally if we are gonna pick one to upgrade based on end product it would be Diaz but you have also stated that (I don't know if you'd rather sell one or the other but I agree with the PSG offer. Although I wouldn't be opposed to keeping him either if an offer of 70mil didn't come in)

[istvan kozma]

When did I say I wanted Jota to be sold. I quite clearly said after signing Gakpo that the forwards were imbalanced we had Diaz, Nunez, Gakpo and Jota who preferred playing from the left. I stated that if we wanted to sacrifice one of them to bring in right sided attacker with explosive pace then Jota was the most likely to be sold.

I think that is entirely fair. Jota was the first of the predominantly left-sided attackers we had brought in. Hadn't nailed down a starting spot and had injury issues. He didn't have the pace to play as a Klopp wide attacker, didn't have the physicality to play as an out and out 9 and was best suited to an old-fashioned inside left position.

Things may well have changed because Slot tends to play with a wide attacker who tends to drift into the positions that would suit Jota and who becomes almost a 2nd 10.

You & JackWard33 mock Jota, yet you try and convince us that Nunez (who cost double the price) is not a disappointment.

[Eeyore]

I think one of the biggest things is the weight of expectations on Nunez combined with the insane amount of forward talent we have.

Nunez was signed for a big fee potentially rising to £85m. Normally that kind of fee guarantees that you will be starting games and that the team will be setup to maximise chances for you. That isn't the scenario we had last season in his debut season.

From January we had.

Firmino......£30m signed 2015
Salah.........£44m signed 2017
Jota...........£45m signed 2020
Diaz...........£50m signed 2022
Nunez........£85m signed 2022
Gakpo........£44m signed 2023

When you look at how long ago the fees for Firmino, Salah and Jota were paid plus the fees for Diaz and Gakpo were reduced because Porto and PSV were desperate for money then it is a pretty unique situation. We didn't have 1 expensive forward who was guaranteed to start. We had six last season and five this season.

That for me has extended the bedding in period for Nunez. We have at times had too many options. Compare that to the situation when we had basically Mane, Firmino and Salah. A dip in form didn't really matter that much because there wasn't another expensive top-class attacker to take their place. The attackers got to play through dips and build up their individual rhythm and also as a unit.

Sometimes you can have too many players. I think a good comparison would be Madrid's midfield. Exceptional players with the exception of Bellingham have come in and struggled. People talk about whether you can risk building an attack around Nunez. The thing is how will you find out if you don't give him the opportunity?

[Garlic Red]

What you are missing though is that the final pass should also be better from his teammates. We should be putting better crosses into the box. Unfortunately for Nunez his arrival has seen us change the way we attack. Trent now inverts and Robbo doesn't get forward as much. Ironically we used to be guilty of putting in too many crosses. That is something that would have suited Nunez. Look how many times Trent used whip crosses in really early for our forwards. Now we look to walk the ball in or create shooting opportunities for the likes of Trent, Szobo and Macca in central areas.

I have long felt this, to be honest. How many times have we seen Darwin slipped in and it’s a first time finish with the keeper pretty much on his toes? How many crosses go in at awkward heights and angles?

There was a goal that Darwin scored a few weeks ago, Szoboszlai set it up against Bucharest, it was essentially a cut back to the edge of the box and Darwin put it in in the bottom corner. I’ve said all season why isn’t he getting those types of chances? It’s like we’ve been so poor at getting to the byline - or in space behind their defence - that when we’ve eventually cut it back it’s been pretty aimless.

Chances like the Everton one I can completely understand the frustration, it’s a complete lack of composure at top speed and he needs to find a way to clear his mind and finish those ones off, or at least make the right decision. But I’ve long felt we too often just ‘put it in an area’ for Darwin to attack, his movement is that good, that sharp, that he gets on the end of loads, but he sometimes makes chances out of situations most other players wouldn’t be able to get near.

The mad thing is, Darwin was touted as a signing to stop us being predictable - something we’d become with a false 9 as Ancelotti famously pointed out, but I actually think he and we’d benefit by playing with a bit more predictability. I would love us to sign another false 9 in the Firmino mould and see if Darwin can strike up the type of repertoire with him that Mane and Salah benefitted from so often. I think having a playmaker in the final third where the ball sticks is so underrated. Watching some of the videos of Slot’s Feyenoord, it definitely feels like we either need a false 9 or could use Mac Allister as a 10, holding the ball up for bounce passes and teeing off runners. 

[alonsoisared]

This feels good faith, so I'll have a go at answering.

Benteke: Yes, most statistical analysis showed that his level had seriously dropped after injury. In terms of output, he actually improved after moving to Liverpool, but it was insufficient.

Sterling: Probably not, if you were treating Chelsea as a champions league team. If you were treating them as a mid-table team, then yeah, there is good evidence to suggest that team effects constrain attacking output in worse teams. His output had been steadily declining year on year before the move, but it was somewhat unexpected how much it declined after the move.

Thing is, this isn't really relevant, as Nunez's numbers are good per time spent on the pitch. Its not really disputable. Both his underlying are and actual goals + assists per 90 is very very good.

I promise it was in good faith

I asked because it seems that the only defence of him in this thread seems to come from stats. I'm absolutely not an expert or that well read on it but it still feels to me like there are so many flaws that they can't account for, like the style of play, how a player fits into that team, the quality of opponent he's surrounded with etc. For example, I keep reading that high value shots is much more important than finishing ability but I would argue that surely you would expect a forward to have more high value shots if they're playing centre forward for Liverpool under Jürgen Klopp than, say, Newcastle, Villa, Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest. It then can go the other way, as with Benteke and many other forwards, that it's hard to translate your game when moving to a big side because defences sit back and you can't play off the shoulder so much.

I think it's relevant for Nunez because him coming in was an attempt to change our style of play. We'd not played with an out and out goalscoring forward under Klopp, instead we had three very intricate, technically excellent forwards who interchanged at will and wreaked absolute havoc. Our one problem we did have with that front three is we often found it difficult to score in one off finals, 21/22 we failed in the league cup, fa cup and champions league to score and I think a lot of us saw Nunez coming in as a shift in style as well as a match winner, a true goalscorer and a killer who would make a difference on those occasions. At the moment he's pretty far away from being reliable in front of goal. City basically did the same with Haaland, a lot of people said their football wasn't as good as a result but his goals fired them to a treble.

The goals per 90 stat keeps coming up and again there are intricacies with that which get ignored. He has been available all season but he hasn't played well enough and hasn't fitted our style of play well enough for certain games. If he gets hooked with 20 minutes left because he's not contributed and we're looking elsewhere for goals, or the manager doesn't consider him vital enough to automatically start games, that in itself is a problem for one of the most expensive centre forwards in the world.

I hope he's a success, as always on here some people bizarrely can't take any criticism of our players as anything other than being a shit fan who secretly wants us to fail. I just find him infuriating at times and on a big night there's quite a long list of current Liverpool players I would rather a big chance fall to. I find the debate with stats interesting because it just doesn't chime with what a lot of people actually see on the pitch. The ultimate example him being described as a 28 goal a season striker because of his minutes per goal, but despite being basically injury free and available all season he again looks likely to fail to even get to 15.

I accept what you're saying in your answer there, I suppose my question was more on the topic of how much we can rely on stats as the definitive way to judge a player, seeing as they are so often used to define Nunez. I can't say I remember ever talking about Salah, Firmino and Mane in that way because they were just obviously so good and so obviously perfect fits for our team. When people say Isak for example wouldn't be an upgrade based on stats, I think that is unfair because on the eye someone like Isak seems to suit our team and style of play very well, I think we would create far more opportunities for him than he gets at Newcastle and his numbers could rise substantially. Torres and Salah were never deadly attackers before we signed them but they fit perfectly in our style of play and became the absolute best in the business.

[Eeyore]

I promise it was in good faith

I asked because it seems that the only defence of him in this thread seems to come from stats. I'm absolutely not an expert or that well read on it but it still feels to me like there are so many flaws that they can't account for, like the style of play, how a player fits into that team, the quality of opponent he's surrounded with etc. For example, I keep reading that high value shots is much more important than finishing ability but I would argue that surely you would expect a forward to have more high value shots if they're playing centre forward for Liverpool under Jürgen Klopp than, say, Newcastle, Villa, Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest. It then can go the other way, as with Benteke and many other forwards, that it's hard to translate your game when moving to a big side because defences sit back and you can't play off the shoulder so much.

I think it's relevant for Nunez because him coming in was an attempt to change our style of play. We'd not played with an out and out goalscoring forward under Klopp, instead we had three very intricate, technically excellent forwards who interchanged at will and wreaked absolute havoc. Our one problem we did have with that front three is we often found it difficult to score in one off finals, 21/22 we failed in the league cup, fa cup and champions league to score and I think a lot of us saw Nunez coming in as a shift in style as well as a match winner, a true goalscorer and a killer who would make a difference on those occasions. At the moment he's pretty far away from being reliable in front of goal. City basically did the same with Haaland, a lot of people said their football wasn't as good as a result but his goals fired them to a treble.

The goals per 90 stat keeps coming up and again there are intricacies with that which get ignored. He has been available all season but he hasn't played well enough and hasn't fitted our style of play well enough for certain games. If he gets hooked with 20 minutes left because he's not contributed and we're looking elsewhere for goals, or the manager doesn't consider him vital enough to automatically start games, that in itself is a problem for one of the most expensive centre forwards in the world.

I hope he's a success, as always on here some people bizarrely can't take any criticism of our players as anything other than being a shit fan who secretly wants us to fail. I just find him infuriating at times and on a big night there's quite a long list of current Liverpool players I would rather a big chance fall to. I find the debate with stats interesting because it just doesn't chime with what a lot of people actually see on the pitch. The ultimate example him being described as a 28 goal a season striker because of his minutes per goal, but despite being basically injury free and available all season he again looks likely to fail to even get to 15.

I accept what you're saying in your answer there, I suppose my question was more on the topic of how much we can rely on stats as the definitive way to judge a player, seeing as they are so often used to define Nunez. I can't say I remember ever talking about Salah, Firmino and Mane in that way because they were just obviously so good and so obviously perfect fits for our team. When people say Isak for example wouldn't be an upgrade based on stats, I think that is unfair because on the eye someone like Isak seems to suit our team and style of play very well, I think we would create far more opportunities for him than he gets at Newcastle and his numbers could rise substantially. Torres and Salah were never deadly attackers before we signed them but they fit perfectly in our style of play and became the absolute best in the business.

The thing is we have five forwards.

None penalty League goals.

Salah.........12
Nunez........11
Jota...........10
Diaz...........8
Gakpo........6

So 47 None penalty League goals for our forwards. Exactly the same as Salah, Man, Firmino and Origi scored in 19-20 when we won the League. Would you be happier if we played a front two and they scored 47 between them?

[butchersdog]

Without casting a vote in this debate, do people on the forum who are massively into stats not find it takes the joy out of watching the game? (That’s a genuine question, no invective intended). I can understand it if you’re a scout or work for the club, but as a fan, it seems on face value like combining football with something like accountancy. I just like watching the match and forming a reasonably subjective opinion based on what I see. Maybe that’s a bit old hat?

[mullyred94]

Without casting a vote in this debate, do people on the forum who are massively into stats not find it takes the joy out of watching the game? (That’s a genuine question, no invective intended). I can understand it if you’re a scout or work for the club, but as a fan, it seems on face value like combining football with something like accountancy. I just like watching the match and forming a reasonably subjective opinion based on what I see. Maybe that’s a bit old hat?

Personally its because sports has heavily become analytic, maybe a perhaps people wanting to get an understanding what the people who sign the player would look at (they would have at least 10x of stats and info that is posted on here)

As its not branded as much today but the club were always looking for " money ball " signings

[PEG2K]

I'm all for stats discussion because without it the debate becomes "in my eyes he looks good" vs "but in my eyes he looks bad". There will be no end to that and we'll become two groups of sheep.

But I find it annoying that some people can't analyse stats properly or put them in the right context, but like to throw them around like a "gotcha" tool.

Stats should be used to back up or correct an opinion formed from your eye test, not to run an agenda (by manipulating them).

The past 10 20 pages or so have seen some laughable takes of people not understanding or misusing stats.

[kasperoff]

Nunez was the same at Benfica loads of good technical finishes.. That is the entire point. Nunez's two seasons here up to now have been the anomaly.

If you want to see Nunez's finishing then look at the three he put past Ali. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIQp9F1jEPM

Offside for 2 of them, which also shines a light on one of his other issues.

[Andar]

Just clocked Benfica finished 3rd for both of his 2 seasons there, then immediately won the league once he departed.

In fact, the only trophy he's won in Europe is the league cup final he didn't play.

Makes u think...

Not shocked by that stat at all.

A small part (i say small because there is so much more that is wrong) must be to do with how he lets his teams down in pressure moments. Benfica must have felt the brunt of that themselves.

Big chances when tied or within one goal - https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?s=46&t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpgp

He is far too lacking in the basics and not fit for purpose at any big club fighting for titles.

Him and Lukaku are so alike it's uncanny. Both lack the basics to look like functional footballers for any major club, but along with that flap at chances in pressure moments. Lukaku only recently had that disaster at the World Cup when he missed about 3 or 4 sitters and Belgium were knocked out because of that. That is exactly the sort of showing Nunez would be able to pull off.

At least Lukaku has that one season that was an outlier when he won a title with Inter (during the Covid season). I wouldn't bet on Nunez ever achieving that feat in his career.

There is one serial league winner that stands out in Ibrahimovic. An intelligent accomplished footballer who was a multiplier (Phaseofplay used this term). Someone who boosted the performance of his teams which more often than not lead to league titles.

The likes of Nunez are the opposite. They are dividers. So lacking in the basics of being a functional footballer that they are an albatross in the way of winning titles. The number 1 club in Portugal felt the force of that and we will continue to do so.

[kasperoff]

The likes of Nunez are the opposite. They are dividers. So lacking in the basics of being a functional footballer that they are an albatross in the way of winning titles. The number 1 club in Portugal felt the force of that and we will continue to do so.

Whilst I wouldn't quite go that far, I do think watching him miss good changes has an effect on the confidence of the team during the game. Particularly as it's happened time and time again this season.

[Eeyore]

Offside for 2 of them, which also shines a light on one of his other issues.

That was a game of ridiculously tight offside calls though.

The other thing is Nunez wouldn't have know he was offside when he took the chances, which were really calm and cool finishes against the best keeper on the planet.

For me the Brentford home sums up Nunez's luck this season. Two great finishes both ruled out for offside with one of them being by a toenail.

[Eeyore]

Not shocked by that stat at all.

A small part (i say small because there is so much more that is wrong) must be to do with how he lets his teams down in pressure moments. Benfica must have felt the brunt of that themselves.

Big chances when tied or within one goal - https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?s=46&t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpgp

He is far too lacking in the basics and not fit for purpose at any big club fighting for titles.

Him and Lukaku are so alike it's uncanny. Both lack the basics to look like functional footballers for any major club, but along with that flap at chances in pressure moments. Lukaku only recently had that disaster at the World Cup when he missed about 3 or 4 sitters and Belgium were knocked out because of that. That is exactly the sort of showing Nunez would be able to pull off.

At least Lukaku has that one season that was an outlier when he won a title with Inter (during the Covid season). I wouldn't bet on Nunez ever achieving that feat in his career.

There is one serial league winner that stands out in Ibrahimovic. An intelligent accomplished footballer who was a multiplier (Phaseofplay used this term). Someone who boosted the performance of his teams which more often than not lead to league titles.

The likes of Nunez are the opposite. They are dividers. So lacking in the basics of being a functional footballer that they are an albatross in the way of winning titles. The number 1 club in Portugal felt the force of that and we will continue to do so.

That is nonsense. Please explain why we look a better team with Nunez and why we are a better team statistically with Nunez in the team.

Ia Haaland who Keane labeled a League 2 player an albatross in the way of winning titles?

Watch this video and then come back and say Nunez doesn't have quality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=d0LfGNO3aZE

[rob1966]

Offside for 2 of them, which also shines a light on one of his other issues.

The first one is the same issue others have said today, their No7, Everton, takes two touches when he really should have play it first time, the run was screaming for that instant pass. The second one he was coming back from an offside position, because once again he's made a great run and the No20 instead of passing to him turns inside. He's got himself back onside but then outran Ibou.

Every finish was top top quality though. Ali also makes a brilliant save from the volley that is going in at the left hand post.

[alonsoisared]

The thing is we have five forwards.

None penalty League goals.

Salah.........12
Nunez........11
Jota...........10
Diaz...........8
Gakpo........6

So 47 None penalty League goals for our forwards. Exactly the same as Salah, Man, Firmino and Origi scored in 19-20 when we won the League. Would you be happier if we played a front two and they scored 47 between them?

Is the current forward line as good as Salah, Mane and Firmino then? It obviously isn't. Mane, Firmino and Salah offered so much more than just goals. Nunez is an out and out number 9 who offers nothing like the all round ability of those three. He can make up those shortcomings by scoring a shed load of goals. But he doesn't.

My overall opinion is that we have an issue with our forward line in general. Nunez isnt the only issue, he's a good player who is frustratingly close to being very very good. The question after two seasons here is whether his ability to stick the ball in the net can get any better. So far there's been very little to suggest he can. There has been some improvement to his all round game but in front of goal you don't ever feel you can trust him. But then the stats people in here say his numbers are already elite and get very defensive over him and you're left looking at an awkward looking forward who misses bucketloads of easy chances, constantly gets caught offside, hasn't cemented himself as an automatic starter, and has barely double figures in the league and something doesn't quite add up.

[JasonF]

Not shocked by that stat at all.

A small part (i say small because there is so much more that is wrong) must be to do with how he lets his teams down in pressure moments. Benfica must have felt the brunt of that themselves.

Big chances when tied or within one goal - https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?s=46&t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpgp

He is far too lacking in the basics and not fit for purpose at any big club fighting for titles.

Him and Lukaku are so alike it's uncanny. Both lack the basics to look like functional footballers for any major club, but along with that flap at chances in pressure moments. Lukaku only recently had that disaster at the World Cup when he missed about 3 or 4 sitters and Belgium were knocked out because of that. That is exactly the sort of showing Nunez would be able to pull off.

At least Lukaku has that one season that was an outlier when he won a title with Inter (during the Covid season). I wouldn't bet on Nunez ever achieving that feat in his career.

There is one serial league winner that stands out in Ibrahimovic. An intelligent accomplished footballer who was a multiplier (Phaseofplay used this term). Someone who boosted the performance of his teams which more often than not lead to league titles.

The likes of Nunez are the opposite. They are dividers. So lacking in the basics of being a functional footballer that they are an albatross in the way of winning titles. The number 1 club in Portugal felt the force of that and we will continue to do so.

Speaking of multipliers:

With Nunez present in all competitions, the Reds have scored 118 goals and conceded 53, meaning his individual goal difference works out at +1.33 per 90 minutes. This is 0.72 better than it has been for the Reds when he has been on the bench or in the stands.

This is the biggest difference between with-and-without for any of the 34 Liverpool players who’ve amassed at least 2,000 minutes since the start of 2017/18. We could break down the underlying xG numbers but they tell the same tale, with Nunez top again.

[Eeyore]

Is the current forward line as good as Salah, Mane and Firmino then? It obviously isn't. Mane, Firmino and Salah offered so much more than just goals. Nunez is an out and out number 9 who offers nothing like the all round ability of those three. He can make up those shortcomings by scoring a shed load of goals. But he doesn't.

My overall opinion is that we have an issue with our forward line in general. Nunez isnt the only issue, he's a good player who is frustratingly close to being very very good. The question after two seasons here is whether his ability to stick the ball in the net can get any better. So far there's been very little to suggest he can. There has been some improvement to his all round game but in front of goal you don't ever feel you can trust him. But then the stats people in here say his numbers are already elite and get very defensive over him and you're left looking at an awkward looking forward who misses bucketloads of easy chances, constantly gets caught offside, hasn't cemented himself as an automatic starter, and has barely double figures in the league and something doesn't quite add up.

How do judge ability though. At times when he is on form Nunez terrorises defences, absolutely runs them into the ground. He has also 29 goal contributions 18 goals and 11 assists.

[daggerdoo]

I think some people might be getting fed up with all the stats being used because so many people have been arguing over them for so many pages now that the stats are becoming hard to follow or use in a proper way, clouding things a bit. I know they're there to do the opposite.

I'll try and give my opinion on Darwin after nearly two seasons with us.
He plays with emotion and desire and he loves to score. He lets himself down with lack of game inteligence, which I think leads to his bad touches and finishing.

If he doesn't score at least 10 goals next season I'd be surprised. A new approach on how we attack teams might be all we need to see him hit 20+. If we need better balls in to the box to him regularly for him to come consistent, then we should work on it and find a way for it to work.

[PEG2K]

I honestly don't see how any argument surrounding the idea that he needs better support can be valid. It's not like the guy doesn't get enough chances lol. Like if I was put there to play striker for Liverpool and scored 1 out of 100, should the argument be I need to improve or that the team has to create 1000 chances for me?

It's such a lame excuse. Look at the stats I posted before re his general play. Least in the team in literally every category. None of our 9 since maybe Sturridge has that luxury. What more do you want?

[G Richards]

It will be interesting to see what Slot does with him. The attributes are there for him to be a devastating striker, so I suspect Slot will be thinking he can unlock something special with a few tweaks here and there.

If by the end of next season things haven’t progressed, Nunez will slip back to being one of the group of strikers, albeit expensive for the output he brings; or he will be sold and replaced.

I think next season, under the new manager, will bring this one to a head one way or the other.

[RedG13]

Is the current forward line as good as Salah, Mane and Firmino then? It obviously isn't. Mane, Firmino and Salah offered so much more than just goals. Nunez is an out and out number 9 who offers nothing like the all round ability of those three. He can make up those shortcomings by scoring a shed load of goals. But he doesn't.

My overall opinion is that we have an issue with our forward line in general. Nunez isnt the only issue, he's a good player who is frustratingly close to being very very good. The question after two seasons here is whether his ability to stick the ball in the net can get any better. So far there's been very little to suggest he can. There has been some improvement to his all round game but in front of goal you don't ever feel you can trust him. But then the stats people in here say his numbers are already elite and get very defensive over him and you're left looking at an awkward looking forward who misses bucketloads of easy chances, constantly gets caught offside, hasn't cemented himself as an automatic starter, and has barely double figures in the league and something doesn't quite add up.

This the best attack under Klopp in terms of how much is created etc. Also part of the reason is also get goal scoring from the midfield too.

[Knight]

I'm all for stats discussion because without it the debate becomes "in my eyes he looks good" vs "but in my eyes he looks bad". There will be no end to that and we'll become two groups of sheep.

But I find it annoying that some people can't analyse stats properly or put them in the right context, but like to throw them around like a "gotcha" tool.

Stats should be used to back up or correct an opinion formed from your eye test, not to run an agenda (by manipulating them).

The past 10 20 pages or so have seen some laughable takes of people not understanding or misusing stats.

Yes. On both sides. But many on one side won't accept the fact that he has very good production p90 and it'd be really quite hard to improve upon. If this simple fact was accepted we'd all be in a much better place. Then the conversation could be, 'Nunez is great, what will make him even better', rather than, 'Nunez is rubbish, we should get rid. And while we're at it Diaz, Gapko and Salah can go too'.

[mullyred94]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqTdUCjyMTg

[Eeyore]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqTdUCjyMTg

That illustrates the issue with the definition of big chances. Any chance over .39 is classed as a big chance. That means any chance just over .39 is one and a half times more likely to be missed than scored. I think people think big chances are sitters that a striker somehow misses.

[JackWard33]

I honestly don't see how any argument surrounding the idea that he needs better support can be valid. It's not like the guy doesn't get enough chances lol. Like if I was put there to play striker for Liverpool and scored 1 out of 100, should the argument be I need to improve or that the team has to create 1000 chances for me?

It's such a lame excuse. Look at the stats I posted before re his general play. Least in the team in literally every category. None of our 9 since maybe Sturridge has that luxury. What more do you want?

Given your passionate plea for people to 'use stats properly'
Why would you expect the 9 not to be "least in the team" in categories like 'progressive passes' and passes into the final third, carries into the final third etc etc? ..
He's the 9 .. he's highest up the pitch and touches the ball the least.

I have no idea what you think your measuring but comparing the player with the highest starting position to players in deeper positions is something you might like to adjust for
Why does Joe Gomez have so few shots compared to Mo Salah etc etc
Or just compare our 9/striker to other 9s/strikers.. too easy?

[mullyred94]

That illustrates the issue with the definition of big chances. Any chance over .39 is classed as a big chance. That means any chance just over .39 is one and a half times more likely to be missed than scored. I think people think big chances are sitters that a striker somehow misses.

Yep, I would have backed him to score a few more but as you said 32 big chances missed is a massive over exaggeration.

[mullyred94]

I honestly don't see how any argument surrounding the idea that he needs better support can be valid. It's not like the guy doesn't get enough chances lol. Like if I was put there to play striker for Liverpool and scored 1 out of 100, should the argument be I need to improve or that the team has to create 1000 chances for me?

It's such a lame excuse. Look at the stats I posted before re his general play. Least in the team in literally every category. None of our 9 since maybe Sturridge has that luxury. What more do you want?

Isn't there an arguement to be made that a lot of those chances out of 100 would be manufactured purely by him being the person?


Swap another striker with less speed and raw athleticism are they gonna get into as many positions as him?

They may convert more but does it honestly matter if they get into 1/3 of the shooting positions he does?

[Buster Gonad]

That illustrates the issue with the definition of big chances. Any chance over .39 is classed as a big chance. That means any chance just over .39 is one and a half times more likely to be missed than scored. I think people think big chances are sitters that a striker somehow misses.

My assessment would be he needs to convert maybe 6 of those to be exceptional. The howlers are haunting him. Although granted all strikers have a couple of horror misses  a season.
Currently Haaland tops the big chances missed with 30. Darwin is at 26. If he converted 6 he'd be at 20 which is level with Watkins (the best forward in the league this season). He's definitely had some misfortune  with the woodwork too.
Question is can he refine his shooting a little?  Well we'll find out next season as he'll still be here much to the chagrin of some and I'll continue supporting him.

[mullyred94]

My assessment would be he needs to convert maybe 6 of those to be exceptional. The howlers are haunting him. Although granted all strikers have a couple of horror misses  a season.
Currently Haaland tops the big chances missed with 30. Darwin is at 26. If he converted 6 he'd be at 20 which is level with Watkins (the best forward in the league this season). He's definitely had some misfortune  with the woodwork too.
Question is can he refine his shooting a little?  Well we'll find out next season as he'll still be here much to the chagrin of some and I'll continue supporting him.

I honestly think there was about 3 in the league where he was extremely unlucky, the low balls into him and hits it back the way it came from.

Was about 3-4 of those that were really unlucky/great saves