I've watched both documentaries and listened to the podcast, and I still can't decide about Bailey. If anything he strikes me as someone who would now confess just to gain more attention, had he actually done it. The alleged scratches on his arms are by far the most compelling evidence but it beggars belief no one took a photo of it.
See, it's interesting you say that, because I had a completely different interpretation of the scratches on his arms. To me, there's nothing compelling about that at all. At best, the scratches are circumstantial. Same too with him supposedly being sighted at the bridge near the victims house on the night of the murder. Even if that were true (which it turned out it wasn't), it's still circumstantial. It doesn't prove that he was at the scene, and it sure as hell doesn't prove that he actually murdered her
It's worth remembering that upon the first arrest, both Bailey and his partner willingly provided DNA samples to the police. No matches were found anywhere at the scene and no matches were found anywhere on the victim. It's also worth remembering that the victims body was exhumed in 2008 so that further forensic tests could be carried out. Again, even with advances in forensic testing, no matches were found to link Bailey to the crime.
When you put it all together, it's no surprise the DPP decided not to prosecute him. It's also no surprise that the Irish Supreme Court denied his extradition and told the French Judiciary to cop the fuck on to themselves. That being said, I do genuinely feel enormous sympathy for her parents and for her son. It's clear that they believe Bailey is guilty and are unlikely to ever get a sense of closure until they see him behind bars. That's another tragedy in itself IMO, and one which should prompt France to take a long hard look at their bullshit court system