Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2015-16 (Read 223573 times)

Prof · « **on:** July 23, 2015, 10:18:05 pm »

The Alternative Premier League Table 2015-16

This is a continuation of the last four APLT threads which ran over the last three seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season. This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches. I refer to these as the ‘par results’. As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top seven teams from last season indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.

Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below). If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.

The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish. Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf

This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

Quote from: Nessy76 on September 1, 2014, 02:10:47 am

Reds Flag · « **Reply #1 on:** July 24, 2015, 12:27:44 am »

Thanks for your efforts, Prof, I always enjoy reading this thread and the added depth it provides through the season in terms of interpreting points standings relatively, and the discussion it inspires (minus the sadly inevitable 3-page long arguments over methodology...). Though I must admit that 13-14 was the only season I've been able to stay with this thread to the end of the season without the graph eventually becoming too distressing for me to look at...

DyingAtheist · « **Reply #2 on:** July 24, 2015, 08:54:21 am »

Brutal start but a very nice run-in at the end of the season. Anyway. Always enjoy this thread, so thanks for putting up with everyone and doing it yet again this year.

Prof · « **Reply #3 on:** July 24, 2015, 09:01:12 am »

With that opening set of fixtures, we could be low down the league table early on even if we're on par. With all the new signings needing to gel, I fully expect the media knives to be sharpened early on. I hope this view of the table will allow for some level of balance.

Hij · « **Reply #4 on:** July 24, 2015, 10:49:19 am »

Quote from: Prof on July 24, 2015, 09:01:12 am

With that opening set of fixtures, we could be low down the league table early on even if we're on par. With all the new signings needing to gel, I fully expect the media knives to be sharpened early on. I hope this view of the table will allow for some level of balance.

Be interesting to see if those clichés of teams set for relegation gaining a lot of points at the start and then fading away hold true for us. Not that we are destined for relegation

but that perhaps with pre season and condition we could be on a more level playing field at the start of the season than at the end? At least for the first few skirmishes. Other teams bedding in tactics etc.

Perhaps not but looking for any positives I can find.

Red Raw · « **Reply #5 on:** July 24, 2015, 10:05:31 pm »

Quote from: Prof on July 24, 2015, 09:01:12 am

With that opening set of fixtures, we could be low down the league table early on even if we're on par. With all the new signings needing to gel, I fully expect the media knives to be sharpened early on. I hope this view of the table will allow for some level of balance.

Quoting yourself is a bit shit isn't it? . . . ah, fuck it:

Quote from: Red Raw on June 17, 2015, 01:19:42 pm

At least we have the APLT to cling to until December . . .

Gonna need this thread in the run up to xmas. Bookmarked!

Thanks again Prof.

Prof · « **Reply #6 on:** July 24, 2015, 10:42:43 pm »

Quote from: Red Raw on July 24, 2015, 10:05:31 pm

Quoting yourself is a bit shit isn't it? . . . ah, fuck it:Gonna need this thread in the run up to xmas. Bookmarked!

Thanks again Prof.

Nice plug. Welcome back.

riismeister · « **Reply #7 on:** July 24, 2015, 11:02:18 pm »

Quote from: Prof on July 24, 2015, 09:01:12 am

With that opening set of fixtures, we could be low down the league table early on even if we're on par. With all the new signings needing to gel, I fully expect the media knives to be sharpened early on. I hope this view of the table will allow for some level of balance.

1. They certainly will.
2. That's what I've used it for in the last few years anyways.

I think if we're still in the mix or thereabouts after playing City at the Etihad we'll have a good opportunity to gain some ground (in the real table) during December and possibly January (playing both Arsenal and Man United at home).

TepidT2O · « **Reply #8 on:** July 25, 2015, 08:38:56 am »

Still don't understand it

Blinis · « **Reply #9 on:** July 25, 2015, 10:25:32 am »

YEAH it's back !

Will be following this thread very closely as always

LFCsupporter · « **Reply #10 on:** July 25, 2015, 01:25:36 pm »

Week 29 of 14/15.
What an awful game.

Prof · « **Reply #11 on:** July 25, 2015, 01:41:14 pm »

Quote from: LFCsupporter on July 25, 2015, 01:25:36 pm

Week 29 of 14/15.
What an awful game.

Home to man utd

rickardinho1 · « **Reply #12 on:** July 25, 2015, 11:52:34 pm »

Thanks for all the hardwork Prof! This is undoubtedly one of my favourite threads, though I admit I followed a lot closer in 2013/14

With so many early Par 1's I really look forward to seeing Prof needing to adjust his y-axis to include more than +10 as we start off at a pace of over 100 points for the season

You can quote me later lads.

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #13 on:** July 26, 2015, 02:50:04 pm »

We had ten points after five games in 13-14. That would be above par this year, and a brilliant start, of course.

sikingthegreat1 · « **Reply #14 on:** July 26, 2015, 02:58:10 pm »

glad to see this~~

one of my favourite threads here~~

looking forward to all the discussions

rickardinho1 · « **Reply #15 on:** July 26, 2015, 03:24:50 pm »

Quote from: Impolite King Brian Blessed on July 26, 2015, 02:50:04 pm

We had ten points after five games in 13-14. That would be above par this year, and a brilliant start, of course.

Stoke(a) - W
Bournemouth(h) - W
Arsenal(a) - L
West Ham(h)- W
United(a) - D

That would be a solid start for sure.

Crimson_Tank · « **Reply #16 on:** July 26, 2015, 03:35:28 pm »

Excellent, so very glad to have this back again this season Prof.

Frizzo · « **Reply #17 on:** July 27, 2015, 06:33:44 am »

Yep thanks prof. One of my favourites!

Ycuzz · « **Reply #18 on:** July 27, 2015, 09:32:26 am »

One of the things that make RAWK what it is.

Prof and thank you.

d3lu5ion · « **Reply #19 on:** July 27, 2015, 09:55:30 am »

One of my fav. thread is active and ready for the new season

killer-heels · « **Reply #20 on:** July 27, 2015, 01:06:51 pm »

10 points in the first 5 games is exactly what we need to be targeting and is the sort of return, especially when you consider who we play, that can set the benchmark and drive up the confidence in this side for the upcoming season, even at this stage.

PrideofBelfast · « **Reply #21 on:** July 28, 2015, 02:08:57 pm »

Maybe i am wrong but see this chat of we have a hard start and all i do not buy it. Bring em on. Anyone we should be having a go for 3 points everytime. Stoke can just as easily concede or take off us 3 points as Man Utd and Chelsea. Lets twat'em all.

DyingAtheist · « **Reply #22 on:** July 28, 2015, 03:04:51 pm »

Quote from: PrideofBelfast on July 28, 2015, 02:08:57 pm

Maybe i am wrong but see this chat of we have a hard start and all i do not buy it. Bring em on. Anyone we should be having a go for 3 points everytime. Stoke can just as easily concede or take off us 3 points as Man Utd and Chelsea. Lets twat'em all.

Posts like this irk me to no end. We all want to win every game, we all go in with confidence - but to pretend we don't have a difficult start (and he APLT proves we do) is absolutely daft.

Iska · « **Reply #23 on:** July 29, 2015, 06:39:33 pm »

Our start is fairly uncompromising, but seeing that list in the OP shows it's maybe not *that* much worse than Utd, City or Chelsea's.

Arsenal, though - there's a real opportunity open for them if they can gun it from the start.

rickardinho1 · « **Reply #24 on:** July 29, 2015, 06:45:53 pm »

I love our run-in, especially when compared to City who are likely to be our main rivals for 4th.

Chelsea A
Stoke H
Southampton A
Arsenal H
Swansea A

Not the run of fixtures you want when you're under pressure late in a season. If we hang around in the Top 4 race long enough we might just sneak in at the end courtesy of this tough late run for them. Ours looks considerably less daunting on paper:

Bournemouth A
Newcastle H
Swansea A
Watford H
West Brom A

xosder · « **Reply #25 on:** July 30, 2015, 05:03:44 pm »

Thanks Prof. I don't allow myself to get excited until this thread opens up. I'm now at full mast.

Prof · « **Reply #26 on:** July 30, 2015, 05:20:06 pm »

Quote from: xosder on July 30, 2015, 05:03:44 pm

Thanks Prof. I don't allow myself to get excited until this thread opens up. I'm now at full mast.

A little too much information

Hij · « **Reply #27 on:** July 30, 2015, 05:30:09 pm »

Quote from: Prof on July 30, 2015, 05:20:06 pm

A little too much information

farawayred · « **Reply #28 on:** July 31, 2015, 02:44:18 am »

Quote from: xosder on July 30, 2015, 05:03:44 pm

Thanks Prof. I don't allow myself to get excited until this thread opens up. I'm now at full mast.

I was looking for something that may bring the full mast in me, but I either missed it, or I'm too old...

Thanks Prof for the thread!

DanA · « **Reply #29 on:** August 8, 2015, 06:03:01 am »

25 point after Man City in Wk 14. If we can do that we are a real threat for the title. 20 and we are fighting for top 4

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #30 on:** August 9, 2015, 06:03:19 pm »

Already looking good!

macca007 · « **Reply #31 on:** August 9, 2015, 06:31:13 pm »

So us +2
United 0
Spurs -1
Chelsea -2
Southampton -2
Arsenal -3

And city still to play. Good start

bobbyjames · « **Reply #32 on:** August 9, 2015, 07:24:45 pm »

It's on!

DanA · « **Reply #33 on:** August 10, 2015, 02:36:55 am »

Almost the perfect start. Manc/Spurs draw probably preferable but other than that fantastic

Frizzo · « **Reply #34 on:** August 10, 2015, 07:17:09 am »

We. Are. Top of the (alternative premier) league. Say we are top of the (alternative premier) league!

Kochevnik · « **Reply #35 on:** August 10, 2015, 09:11:47 am »

Quote from: Frizzo on August 10, 2015, 07:17:09 am

We. Are. Top of the (alternative premier) league. Say we are top of the (alternative premier) league!

We're gonna win the (alternative) league, we're gonna win the (alternative) league, and now you're gonna belieeeeeve us!

L.Suarez · « **Reply #36 on:** August 10, 2015, 09:36:25 am »

So we've already beaten our last season's best of 1 point above par

Good start.

Nessy76 · « **Reply #37 on:** August 10, 2015, 10:36:28 am »

Great start, this thread could be a belter this season.

Will post some thoughts after tonight's game.

Frizzo · « **Reply #38 on:** August 10, 2015, 08:00:13 pm »

Quote from: Kochevnik on August 10, 2015, 09:11:47 am

We're gonna win the (alternative) league, we're gonna win the (alternative) league, and now you're gonna belieeeeeve us!

If we win the alternative league we also win the actual league :-D

Prof · « **Reply #39 on:** August 10, 2015, 10:49:13 pm »