Some great analysis here. Not surprised at all by Enrique, but was quite surprised Cissokho had such good stats defensively. Also with the little I've seen of Kolasinac he sort of reminds me of Enrique but currently making a lot more fouls and dribbled past more - I'm expecting that to improve. Surprised at van Aanholt as well, doesn't look defensively great the few times I watched him and part of a very weak defence - also has a reputation of not being great there.
I was one of those championing for Cissokho over Flanagan that season. Our defence was what hurt us that season and having the more steady option there seemed sensible to me. Plus if all else is equal, give me a left footer there for balance over a fight footer who narrows play.
As for van Aanholt, I checked him out last night and noticed Kent stood him up twice and twice failed to get past him. There were other time he cut in on his left and Aanholt tracked him and then Kent got a shot off and almost scored. But thatīs a different thing to 1-v-1 scoring and actually what I plan to look at next. Thatīs the first time Iīve paid attention to his 1-v-1 abilities and he did okay v Kent who, Iīll be honest, looks a shit to deal with in 1-v-1s. His feet are fast, he is two footed, he has fantastic balance and agility. He will fuck up some full backs for us this year for sure. Maybe just not van Aanholt. I do also have a feeling for the side he is in, van Aanholt is quite passive. His numbers should be higher than Clyne, not lower. So that is something I am looking for. Is he just standing off peopel and letting them get shots, crosses and dangerous passes around him easily? Kent did that after failing to beat him twice. So the gut says yes, but I need to look at it properly later today.
Interesting when I look at the Spurs fullbacks though. From watching them play Rose and Walker look generally quite solid - take into account last season where they only conceded 26 goals which is almost half the amount of the season Moreno played and it's hard to see a correlation that they are actually similar in reality (as opposed to just statistically). What I'm trying to say is they really don't look like a problem for Spurs defence and they are 2 out of the regular back 4 (occasionally 5 if 3atb formation is played) whereas Moreno clearly does at times. Also you might remember Mane for example tearing Davies apart time and time again when we played them in the 2nd half of the season but struggled a lot more against Rose in the 1st half of the season. Another question is why such a great coach as Guardiola wanted Walker for 45m if as the stats suggest he might not be elite in defence and also can be frustrating going forward.
This is where expected goals comes into play. Spurs gave up more shots on target than Liverpool last season. The expected goals value of those shots was slightly higher than Liverpool. Yet Liverpool conceded more goals. From those numbers nothing says to me Spurs Defence > Liverpool defence. For me itīs either equal or Liverpool a scratch better.
However, if instead you used results based logic (which I hate), and say Spurs gave up 26 goals, Liverpool 42. Then those numbers say to me Spurs Defence >>> Liverpool defence. That canīt be right though. How can both those numbers be true?
My Answer? Lloris >>>>>>>> Mignolet (+ Karius for 10 games). I think our goalkeeping is swinging what would be title winning shots against numbers into mid table goals against. If you look at shot locations, we give up goals from distance at above the going rate. Why? We give up goals from angles WAY above the going rate. Why? A guy whose stuff I follows believe itīs a weakness of Migs for a while now and he makes a compelling argument for it. If you imagine your positioning if poor for angled shots, you can see how just being 1/2 yard off would result in people being able to get the ball into the far post much easier. It might be something we donīt notice but the stats say itīs happening. Every single year. Regardless of the players in defence, the system, the manager, every year we concede too many from distance and from angles. Like, 100% too much.
Here is the most interesting thing. When compared to averages, Karius crushes it from angles and from long range. He outperforms the averages by almost 50%. He outperforms expected goals consistently (last year was he first he didnīt but then young keeper, new league, teething problems?). His distribution numbers were among the best around too. And heīs young. So it seems like someone at the club looked at all our specific issues and went out and found the best young keeper in terms of outperforming xg, distribution and dealing with shots from angles and long range. Seems he is shite at crosses but then I think most goalkeepers bar the truly world class will have something they struggle with. Plus he can improve. Migs has a lot here with them (ignore that flap last night, he has). I just went back and watched Karius goals against last season in the league and none of them were from the angles that Migs struggled with. One from range was a Payet freekick that we wouldnīt have stopped if Migs and Ward was in goal with him. In fact watching all the Karius goals, he would struggle to stop any of the shots. His problem was more poor goalkeeping that resulted in goals rather than his ability to position himself to reach shots that he should reach.
As for the question about full backs at Spurs though. Imagine for a second you have full backs who struggle on 1-v-1īs, what would be a hack for solving that problem other than just replacing them? 3 at the back. But they only played 3 at the back for 1/3 of their games, what about the rest? First, get center halfs that are good at covering full backs and ideally played full back themselves (both Vertonghen & Alderweireld played full back at Ajax). The second thing you can do is play with 2 DMīs similar to how Benitez did with Masch and Xabi. Did you ever notice how much time they spent helping out the full backs and covering for them?
So this is exactly what Spurs did last season. Their go to formations were either 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 every game. Dier and Wanyama were the DMīs who saw the most minutes too. Midfielders who are far more D than M I think. Spurs then went with VERY attacking full backs with insane recovery pace knowing that in their DMs and CBs they had players who could cover them while they were up the pitch and also support them well in 1-v-1 situations.
Your Mane question? I think Mane is most effective against full backs he can destroy with pace and power. Rose he cannot. Davies he can. But you put Rose (or Walker) up against someone like Coutinho and itīs a bloodbath.
Guardiola doesnīt sign good defensive full backs. His #1 priority is always recovery pace. After that he looks at them with the ball. Then he looks at defence. In many ways Walker offers Guardiola what he wants (but not everything he needs). Ted Knutsen said last season that Man City wouldnīt win anything with a bunch of old full backs. He was right too. Recovery pace at full back is so important to Guardiola and how he plays (us too, btw, which is why Milner at 31 will be a problem sooner rather than later). Walkerīs pace and ability to hit hard right footed crosses first time mean he will naturally stretch opponents tactically as you cannot give him 15 yards on the right flank to hurt you with. Walker isnīt great through. Heīs no Dani Alves in terms of technique and dribbling. Heīs just average/above average at lots of things and his pace takes that up a level above his underlying skill set. Milner with Walkerīs pace would likely be a beast. Moreno with Milnerīs pace wouldnīt even be a professional footballer perhaps.
