Topic: Statistical Comparison of LFC players to Rest of EPL - starting w/LB

[redmark]

Btw - another mechanism to look for is transtions. The wider your shape in your attacking phase then the longer it takes to transition back into your defensive phase. Therefore the longer you are vulnerable. One aim of gegenpressing is to remain compact so that our transitions are as quick as possible. In addition, if you are compact and win the ball in midfield you should have immediate overloads all over the pitch. I found this diagram of a dortmund press to demonstrate.

Brilliant, thanks. Now get back to fullbacks!

[BabuYagu]

Brilliant, thanks. Now get back to fullbacks!

On it.  Although I should probably rename the thread at this point as itīs evolved into more than just looking at Liverpoolīs fullbacks and I intend to move on to other positions once done too.

Iīve some work these days so I will try to get some visuals done later on the recoveries stuff and also do my first adjusted table to account for the team influence on those numbers to see what it looks like too as at the moment, the last table I did tells us nothing other than Moreno & Flanagan do more stuff than Clyne on the pitch. It has no context and I worry in stats world all defensive actions are seen as positive. More = better. I disagree but I need to justify that.

[McrRed]

Stellar stuff Babu (ably assisted by JCB and others).

I'm wondering if there is some bias in there as Moreno's biggest fan I'm not sure if he can be called brainless. I know everyone thinks he is and says it but...
The only evidence I've seen is where he is rightly called for a mistake but, as we know, many others have to make mistakes too for us to concede. I'm left thinking he's become a scapegoat for our supporters. One thing that would interest me is his tackle to foul ratio (including chances or shots on goal?).
You're right to be suspicious about the validity of high tackle numbers but it doesn't make them a bad thing. As you say, it also depends on where the foul occurs. In basketball you're taught to foul quick and early in transition. I wonder how that translates to football (looking at you Herrera!)

Our defence has been in chaos for a few years and only gained any semblance of solidity in the last few months. Prior to that, any one of the component players could be ripped for terrible stats. Since February Mignolet, Matip and the others have performed much more as expected (2nd/3rd ball in our area being the last glaring vulnerability as even the friendlies have shown).

Defence is a team thing and it's questionable whether it is valid to look at individuals as opposed to combinations - and we know​ our combinations, due to injury etc, have been all over the place. Klopp seemed to set out last year to get our attack going which he did wonderfully and then focus on our defence in the latter half of the season which also paid dividends.

Back to Moreno, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in coaching sessions. Two scenarios:
1 Moreno is a brainless idiot
2 He is doing what he's been told and the defensive rotation hasn't triggered properly.
One puts the blame squarely on his shoulders - the popular view; one hides a malfunction in the system or one or more of the other players.
Both could be true, we're left inferring from what we see.

Clyne, TAA, Milner, Moreno and now Robertson. All have significant strengths plus an area of glaring weakness. Klopp is now able to shuffle those weaknesses away from the teams that would try to exploit them.

[JCB]

Tackle to foul ratio
(I've included last 2 seasons for Moreno due to how little he played recently. Everyone else is 2016-2017:

[BabuYagu]

Tackle to foul ratio
(I've included last 2 seasons for Moreno due to how little he played recently. Everyone else is 2016-2017:

Iīm trying to find a way of working out ALL positive defensive actions vs ALL negative defensive actions. The problem is that each thing isnīt equal. A penalty conceeded, a clearance off the line - those things are game changing events. They are measured in 1 or 2 per season. Whereas fouls can be. Or not.

If I work on the basis of expected goals, a goal line clearance must have an XG of 1. If you donīt do it, itīs a goal. Period. Penalties = 0.77-0.83 of a goal depending on one source to the other. Direct freekicks are 0.06 of a goal. So perhaps I weight conceding a penalty as conceding 13 freekicks? No idea.

The problem I have with something as simple as fouls vs tackles is it leaves out a lot of information. How many fouls are in the box attacking set pieces for Lovren? Or challenging for headers off long balls. They arenīt even tackles. In theory a player could have more fouls than tackles (actually, I believe Gibbs has. Surprise!!!).

It also works on the assumption that the only mistake from a tackle is a foul. Sometimes actually making a tackle is the mistake as you take yourself out of the game.

I guess this is basically my problem with how people are looking at data at the moment. They look for two things that they feel are important and then look at them in isolation and draw a conclusion. For example Tackles + Interceptions = measure of good defending. Well that puts Flanagan as the best full back in the Premier League if not the world. Even his biggest supporter doesnīt believe that to be true. But wait... we can adjust that for possession. Nope, makes it worse. Heīs now 14 times as good a full back as Paolo Maldini in his prime (no clue, maybe. Why not. He even said himself he rarely tackled )

[BabuYagu]

Stellar stuff Babu (ably assisted by JCB and others).

I'm wondering if there is some bias in there as Moreno's biggest fan I'm not sure if he can be called brainless. I know everyone thinks he is and says it but...
The only evidence I've seen is where he is rightly called for a mistake but, as we know, many others have to make mistakes too for us to concede. I'm left thinking he's become a scapegoat for our supporters. One thing that would interest me is his tackle to foul ratio (including chances or shots on goal?).
You're right to be suspicious about the validity of high tackle numbers but it doesn't make them a bad thing. As you say, it also depends on where the foul occurs. In basketball you're taught to foul quick and early in transition. I wonder how that translates to football (looking at you Herrera!)

Our defence has been in chaos for a few years and only gained any semblance of solidity in the last few months. Prior to that, any one of the component players could be ripped for terrible stats. Since February Mignolet, Matip and the others have performed much more as expected (2nd/3rd ball in our area being the last glaring vulnerability as even the friendlies have shown).

Defence is a team thing and it's questionable whether it is valid to look at individuals as opposed to combinations - and we know​ our combinations, due to injury etc, have been all over the place. Klopp seemed to set out last year to get our attack going which he did wonderfully and then focus on our defence in the latter half of the season which also paid dividends.

Back to Moreno, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in coaching sessions. Two scenarios:
1 Moreno is a brainless idiot
2 He is doing what he's been told and the defensive rotation hasn't triggered properly.
One puts the blame squarely on his shoulders - the popular view; one hides a malfunction in the system or one or more of the other players.
Both could be true, we're left inferring from what we see.

Clyne, TAA, Milner, Moreno and now Robertson. All have significant strengths plus an area of glaring weakness. Klopp is now able to shuffle those weaknesses away from the teams that would try to exploit them.

Iīm a huge Moreno fan too. That probably isnīt apparent always given what I say. I also have a lot of time for Mignolet, again I know that doesnīt sound true. Likewise Milner. This is based entirely on how likable I perceive them as people. You just root for people you think are decent people.

I try to put aside all that though for things like this, I have to. The moment I start out with the data trying to prove something I hope to be true, then I would be doing it wrong. Instead I trying to think a fair way to measure something, then giving my honest judgement on what the results show, my concerns about trusting the data and my recommendations for when we watch the player again (e.g. Do Flanno and Moreno dive in too much? Do they go ball chasing rather then playing the role tactically?)

I did a similar table to the one you asked before, which was to show tackles vs fouls & dribbled past. That showing the two possible negative outcomes of a tackle. 1. Play the ball instead of player / miss both entirely.

That said, I honestly got an almost perverse kick out of Gibbs showing up as being woeful. But I was professional and hid it from you all.

Comparison of Robertson with Liverpoolīs 2 existing full backs.

Player Name	Tackling Success Rate	Tackles per 90	Fouls per 90	Dribbled Past per 90	1-v-1 Score	League Rank per Category & Overall
Robertson	67,92%	1,74	0,59	0,76	1,34	Rank 17th, 6th, 10th, 8th overall
Moreno	74,80%	4,34	1,02	1,09	2,12	Rank 6th, 15th, 19th, 15th overall
Milner	67,02%	2,68	1,08	1,4	2,48	Rank 22nd, 16th, 21st, 21st overall

At the end of the whole analysis of all full back stats I want to come back and adjust these based on the team they play for as I see for example, some teams tackle to win the ball, others intercept, others press and force misplaced passes (recoveries) etc.

[JCB]

Iīm trying to find a way of working out ALL positive defensive actions vs ALL negative defensive actions. The problem is that each thing isnīt equal. A penalty conceeded, a clearance off the line - those things are game changing events. They are measured in 1 or 2 per season. Whereas fouls can be. Or not.

If I work on the basis of expected goals, a goal line clearance must have an XG of 1. If you donīt do it, itīs a goal. Period. Penalties = 0.77-0.83 of a goal depending on one source to the other. Direct freekicks are 0.06 of a goal. So perhaps I weight conceding a penalty as conceding 13 freekicks? No idea.

The problem I have with something as simple as fouls vs tackles is it leaves out a lot of information. How many fouls are in the box attacking set pieces for Lovren? Or challenging for headers off long balls. They arenīt even tackles. In theory a player could have more fouls than tackles (actually, I believe Gibbs has. Surprise!!!).

It also works on the assumption that the only mistake from a tackle is a foul. Sometimes actually making a tackle is the mistake as you take yourself out of the game.

I guess this is basically my problem with how people are looking at data at the moment. They look for two things that they feel are important and then look at them in isolation and draw a conclusion. For example Tackles + Interceptions = measure of good defending. Well that puts Flanagan as the best full back in the Premier League if not the world. Even his biggest supporter doesnīt believe that to be true. But wait... we can adjust that for possession. Nope, makes it worse. Heīs now 14 times as good a full back as Paolo Maldini in his prime (no clue, maybe. Why not. He even said himself he rarely tackled )

Was thinking along those lines when I posted it. You can see that Lovren and Klavan have a higher probability of fouling than they really should. Was it a combination of tactics and direction of attack being mostly central amongst other factors, for example?
Thought I'd post it, it's how the rest of us learn 

[McrRed]

Tackle to foul ratio
(I've included last 2 seasons for Moreno due to how little he played recently. Everyone else is 2016-2017:

So, basically Clyne is smoother but without the volume (which could be a good or a bad thing, the volume that is). So there's still hope for Albie? [emoji4]

Bizarrely perhaps, I don't care about Moreno's likeability. What I watch for is the bias when people comment. It's always a shame when you see that initial bias on a player concretise into hegemony.

Part of why I love this thread and what you're trying to do!

[BabuYagu]

Havenīt seen a huge amount of him but liked what I did saw. Iīve never seen him have a bad game. He made some mistakes as all players do but generally did far more good than bad on the pitch when I seen him.

One thing I havenīt seen mentioned is his crossing. He reminds me of someone (canīt put my finger on who though) who used to cross in balls early on the right first time. Pretty good crosser of the ball too. It will be nice to have that option on the left as Milner wants to cut onto his right far too much to really stretch play out there. I personally rate his attacking game more than his defensive one.

As for him being short, heīs not THAT short. Heīs about Lucas height I believe and would probably be the best in the air of our existing full backs. Certainly better than Clyne and Milner who are both very very weak in the air.

His speed is deceptive too. I watched Hull v Arsenal a while back and noticed he could match pace with Bellarin who is one of the faster full backs Iīve seen. Certainly not Moreno fast, but then few are. But then not Dosena slow either. Probably on a par with Clyne.

There is nothing bad about this deal if it happens. Heīs just an inexpensive squad player who could end up being a lot more. At just 23 has plenty of room to grow too and has a lot of experience for someone that age.

Glad to read that back and see that my instinctive observations having watched him a few times lined up with what I saw today. His attacking numbers aren't great but I expected that when you look at who he is playing for. Comparing Marcos Alonso's numbers at Bolton at the same age, Robertson stacks up well which indicates to me his numbers going forward were limited more due to the team and system than him being a limited full back. He stood out everytime I saw him, more in attack than defence.

Btw I am sorry I havenīt updated recently. Very busy with work so I just take short breaks to pop in here and cannot open any memory intensive spreadsheets as I would need to close all the programs and tabs I need open for work. Donīt worry though, weīll be getting back to the task over over analysing the fuck out of full backs very soon. I should be done with work by 1 Aug at the latest.

[afc tukrish]

And your yearly demolition of Cantona is completed as well...

[BabuYagu]

Saw this today and thought I would share. Our first 19 goals conceded this season


I looked back also at Dortmund 2014/15. They conceded just 1 goal from a throughball and 1 from a cross all season. 2 penalties, 4 from dribbles, 19 from set pieces and 15 from "other". I assume other means they signed Gibbs on loan and donīt know how to categorise that the impact of that.

It is interesting though as I was mentioning how good Liverpool are at blocking balls into the box. Set pieces seems to be a recurring problem for Klopp and I guess that is because smaller squads suit his system better.

[Redcap]

Surely there are waaay too many goals in the "other" category?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0UdzTeHdNA

Here's a video of all goals conceded last season for even better analysis.

Some comical defending for a few of them. Crosses are a massive weakness, from both open play and set pieces.

Interesting thing is, we didn't appear to concede that many goals from counter attacks, despite the perception that by having a high line, we expose ourselves.

Another question about the analysis I have is whether 'throughballs' includes through balls that don't lead to a shot, but lead to the final pass before a shot?

[BabuYagu]

Surely there are waaay too many goals in the "other" category?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0UdzTeHdNA

Here's a video of all goals conceded last season for even better analysis.

Some comical defending for a few of them. Crosses are a massive weakness, from both open play and set pieces.

Interesting thing is, we didn't appear to concede that many goals from counter attacks, despite the perception that by having a high line, we expose ourselves.

Another question about the analysis I have is whether 'throughballs' includes through balls that don't lead to a shot, but lead to the final pass before a shot?

I guess assist type other is literally anything that isnīt a throughball, cross or dribble right before goal. Knockdowns, second balls, us passing the ball to them (Grrrr Gini). They really could break that down a little more I am sure.

It seems more than anything, we are poor at clearing danger and instead teams keep alive the ball in our box too often resulting in a goal. Most of Karius goals conceded were from point blank and after the ball had bounced about a bit

[SerbianScouser]

Interesting thing is, we didn't appear to concede that many goals from counter attacks, despite the perception that by having a high line, we expose ourselves.

It's one of the biggest myths on this board; we're actually really good against counter attacks, coaching organization without the ball is probably Klopp's biggest strength imo. However it's those dang rebounds after set-pieces that we really need to do something about.

[redmark]

It's one of the biggest myths on this board; we're actually really good against counter attacks, coaching organization without the ball is probably Klopp's biggest strength imo. However it's those dang rebounds after set-pieces that we really need to do something about.

This subject came up I think a few years ago and it was surprising how few goals any side scores - or concedes - from counter attacks (or what are defined as counter attacks).

[wemmick]

As we long as we cut down on the number of times we give the ball away within 15 yards of our box, I think we'll be golden. Amazing how many times that led to goals.

[Redcap]

As we long as we cut down on the number of times we give the ball away within 15 yards of our box, I think we'll be golden. Amazing how many times that led to goals.

Yep.

To be honest, not having really played a lot of football myself, much less as a CB, I always thought clearing the ball was one of the easier skills to learn.

And yet it seems to be a massive problem for us. Failing to win the second ball and smashing it up field must have cost us way more points last season than I care to think about.

[Bobinhood]

Ya but hey it works. sort of.

We got a kid named Andy Robertsin
He takes the ball out and he puts it back in again
'Long as he plays we just keep win-in



Its true hes the new Finnan its plain to see. who elses song would fit that good? its Clear Destiny.

[BabuYagu]

So Iīm done with my work project. Iīll be digging into this again tonight to get back on track. Also have some ideas for some adjustments we can make that should try to eliminate the influence of the team / league / system / tactics that influences a players numbers.

[McrRed]

So Iīm done with my work project. Iīll be digging into this again tonight to get back on track. Also have some ideas for some adjustments we can make that should try to eliminate the influence of the team / league / system / tactics that influences a players numbers.

Immense mate. Beautiful job.

[SerbianScouser]

Slightly confusing comments from Klopp on Moreno.

Right now we've got 6 fullbacks which is obviously 2 too many. I wouldn't mind keeping him as I'd like to see Milner + Moreno/Robertson combination used against lesser teams at home as our fullbacks.

[JackWard33]

Slightly confusing comments from Klopp on Moreno.

Right now we've got 6 fullbacks which is obviously 2 too many. I wouldn't mind keeping him as I'd like to see Milner + Moreno/Robertson combination used against lesser teams at home as our fullbacks.

Just talking Moreno up you'd assume. He talks everyone up - literally never heard him say a negative thing about a player even if they're about to be sold.
If Moreno was staying we wouldn't have bought Robertson

[Suareznumber7]

Slightly confusing comments from Klopp on Moreno.

Right now we've got 6 fullbacks which is obviously 2 too many. I wouldn't mind keeping him as I'd like to see Milner + Moreno/Robertson combination used against lesser teams at home as our fullbacks.

How are they confusing?  He had a great game and Klopp said as much.  If he does keep playing like tonight there would be no reason to get rid right?

[Rush 82]

Just talking Moreno up you'd assume. He talks everyone up - literally never heard him say a negative thing about a player even if they're about to be sold.
If Moreno was staying we wouldn't have bought Robertson

Not so sure after last night.


Maybe all the lessons have clicked and we now have two good prospects at LB - wouldn't that be 

[BabuYagu]

So with us perhaps having a keener eye on the job of a full back than ever before, did you notice anything during the Audi Cup?
Trent - Fouls too much?
Gomez - Awareness/Scanning? Lost his man a few times in his blindspot and never seemed to look around. Also concerned about his attacking game.
Milner - Offsides? As in, every time they showed an offside decision he was the deepest man, including the guy who played Atletico onside for their goal. That really worried me as my understanding of an offside trap is that the center backs decide the line and full backs should be ahead of it. I also noticed yesterday in 1-v-1īs he was either beaten or fouled someone.
Moreno - He was actually looking around. With his head. By himself! That is pretty huge as I have always thought his awareness and positional problems could mostly be solved by this one tiny thing that is easy to learn. Doesnīt matter if itīs preseason or not, learning to scan shows that he may be coachable. Maybe we didnīt see him much last season as they were drilling this (and other things) into him? Or maybe Klopp has just lost faith in him and this is too little too late? Who knows. Interesting though. Learning that 1 thing changes things with me for Moreno. For the money involved I would keep him around now. Also made a great clearing header - another thing I had filed under things he couldnīt do.
Robertson - Doesnīt seem to be on the same wave length as the team with the ball. Without the ball Iīve seen no problem yet.

Then there was this comment from Klopp yesterday:-

"He [Gomez] can play in both situations. Clyne has had no pre-season, so at the moment we have three options- Trent, Joe, Flanno."

Why is Milner not listed as an option for right full back here? My only assumption is that is because he will be starting left back against Watford (if fit). Despite everything I have said about not liking center halves at full back and concerns about Gomez there, Iīd play him against Watford. They are by far the tallest team in the league and having one more giant ourselves for the set pieces they will throw at us would be no bad thing. Then I'd play Trent in the Euro qualifier.

[Chalky Boots]

Agree with the height thing there Babu. I think I'd like to see Gomez and Moreno start at fullback against Bilbao and see how they do, if Moreno looks as switched on as he did against Bayern then I think he's played his way in ahead of Milner for me, same with Gomez as well; if he shows good positioning - oddly he does actually show good positioning at fullback but seems to get caught off the shoulder in the centre - and tucks in well then I'd start him.

[Giono]

That is strange that Klopp would list Flanno as an option on the right, but not Milner.


Bilbao will be insteresting to watch for Klopp's team selection.

[BabuYagu]

Player	Aerial Success	Aerial Duels/90	Height
Kyle Walker	68,2%	2,93	178
Marcos Alonso	64,0%	3,81	188
Danny Rose	62,8%	2,52	173
José Holebas	62,7%	2,32	184
Erik Pieters	58,1%	2,66	183
George Friend	55,3%	3,90	188
Jon Flanagan	53,2%	2,94	181
Christian Fuchs	53,1%	3,77	186
Stephen Ward	52,9%	3,37	184
Ben Davies	52,7%	4,72	181
Allan-Roméo Nyom	52,5%	1,37	188
Aaron Cresswell	52,2%	2,93	170
Alberto Moreno	51,7%	1,02	171
Joe Average	51,4%	2,69	179
Nacho Monreal	48,3%	3,37	179
Charlie Daniels	47,2%	2,12	178
Andrew Robertson	45,5%	0,72	178
Leighton Baines	44,3%	1,95	170
Ryan Bertrand	44,2%	3,09	179
Gaël Clichy	42,9%	2,96	176
James Milner	40,8%	3,42	175
Patrick van Aanholt	37,0%	0,97	176
Nathaniel Clyne	23,2%	1,52	175

Okay, hands up, who saw Kyle Walker coming out as the #1 full back in terms of aerial duels? Even more outrageous for me though is Danny Rose who is 4th shortest on that list and yet 3rd best. Thoughts?

One possible explanation I have is that when you are very effective at pressing the opposition full backs and center backs, it results in a high volume of aimless long balls into the full back areas. This may indicate one of the ways Tottenham are showing how effective they are at pressing to regain the ball. If they are forcing long balls into areas where they are competing against the likes of Raheem Sterling, Coutinho, Walcott, etc for the ball in the air, they could have inflated numbers here.

Alternatively, and quite possibly, Rose and Walker are just freakishly good athletic players who can outjump players their size. Roberto Ayala of Valencia was around a similar height to Walker and used to routinely outjump players much taller than him.

[BabuYagu]

I decided to do this one as Height vs Success. This is based on my opinion that when being challenged by a larger opponent, even if you win the ball, their presence can be enough to prevent you directing the ball where you want or putting much power in the header. Therefore while Moreno & Nyom are similar in success rates, it is my opinion that being challenged by Moreno is less off-putting than a giant like Nyom.

Of course I have literally nothing to back that up with other than the fact I am 194cm but have a 50p dome. Therefore I was used to challenge and put off players rather than trying to win the ball myself as it was just as likely to go into my own goal as cleared from the box. Oh and if anybody wants to mock my inability to head the ball, have some of this.

[BabuYagu]

I think Iīve covered almost everything to do with defending now. I need to come back to the pressing/second balls section later when I start making adjustments to the numbers to account for the systems. I think that is the one area where itīs hard to isolate the player from the system so for now the numbers are almost meaningless. Although if anybody else wants to make sense of them until then, feel free.

There are other things Iīve been thinking about too like Penalties conceded, goal line clearances, all clearances, not sure what I will do with these either. However, from all this, I want to create a defensive score for players somehow. Once we add attacking data, we can try creating some radars or other visuals too. And by we I mean JCB, of course. I have no fucking clue what I am doing.

One thing I have considered doing is giving a value to errors, penalties conceded, free kicks conceded, dribbled past and seeing how much a negative impact each has on the side. For example, a penalty is scored 77-83% of the time. A direct free-kick results in a goal 6% of the time. I can probably find that information for indirect free kicks too. Then we can give whatever value we see fit for errors once we view what squawka is counting as an error and how often that results in a goal. Likewise, Iīll take a large sample of times players are dribbled past and see how often is ultimately results in a goal.

We can then use this information to create a "Liability Score" to see just how bad Gibbs, I mean players are in an average Premier League game. It wonīt be perfect because a foul central outside the box is far more dangerous than a foul on the half way line, but itīs certainly a starting point.

[redmark]

We can then use this information to create a "Liability Score" to see just how bad Gibbs, I mean players are in an average Premier League game. It wonīt be perfect because a foul central outside the box is far more dangerous than a foul on the half way line, but itīs certainly a starting point.

Hey, Gibbs is bang average in the air.

Clyne's aerial success rate is so abnormally low it makes you wonder if something else is going on. Is he jumping into the player to let them win but misdirect the header? Is he not jumping, but preparing for the second ball? Might have to pay more attention...

[Art of Lies]

I decided to do this one as Height vs Success. This is based on my opinion that when being challenged by a larger opponent, even if you win the ball, their presence can be enough to prevent you directing the ball where you want or putting much power in the header.

It seems to make intuitive sense that a taller person can put off a smaller person when jumping for a header. That said I do see one issue with the height vs. Success metric and that is the fact that even at the extremes the difference in height is only a little over 10%. Could that 10% height difference be compensated for by other factors, say motivation/desire or leg muscle strength?

This caused me to have a quick look with a search engine and it is no surprise that jumping has been studied. The surprise from the data I came across is that there seems to be very little correlation between the ability to jump high and ones own height. Above all factors fat percentage was cited as the most significant factor in the ability to jump high.

Vertical jump is commonly used as an index for the power of the lower limb or explosive leg power

Many studies have been carried out to determine the physiological and biomechanical factors for vertical jump (1,2,5,6,9,17,21). Abdominal and muscle strengths contribute to the vertical jump height. However, this is provided that the training of the abdominal and muscle strengths is accompanied by muscle control activities (1,12). The review done by Kroon (3) for elite volleyball players showed that the strengths in arms and shoulders reinforce the strength in the trunk to project maximum jump height.

Roschel et al. (7) have identified a significant negative relationship between the sum of skinfold thickness and vertical jump among karate athletes. This finding is in accordance to that of Davis et al. (18), who stated that the body fat percentage among recreational athletes is negatively associated to the jump height. In addition, Markovic and Jaric (10) studied the relationship between vertical jump height and body mass, and the result showed that body mass is independent of vertical jump height. Davis et al. (18) reported that there is no significant relationship between vertical jump and body height. Similarly, the study done by Aslan et al. (11) has highlighted that body height has no significant effect on vertical jump among sub-elite athletes.

The study concerned predicting vertical jump height (from a stationary standing position) for martial arts athletes but references other studies.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3684376/

This data would seem to show that a player with low body fat and well developed leg/arm/abdominal muscles could perform much better than their height alone suggests.

[BabuYagu]

It seems to make intuitive sense that a taller person can put off a smaller person when jumping for a header. That said I do see one issue with the height vs. Success metric and that is the fact that even at the extremes the difference in height is only a little over 10%. Could that 10% height difference be compensated for by other factors, say motivation/desire or leg muscle strength?

This caused me to have a quick look with a search engine and it is no surprise that jumping has been studied. The surprise from the data I came across is that there seems to be very little correlation between the ability to jump high and ones own height. Above all factors fat percentage was cited as the most significant factor in the ability to jump high.

The study concerned predicting vertical jump height (from a stationary standing position) for martial arts athletes but references other studies.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3684376/

This data would seem to show that a player with low body fat and well developed leg/arm/abdominal muscles could perform much better than their height alone suggests.

Brilliant post and research mate and that all makes sense too.

The reason for plotting it as I have is that the win % shows how good they are at competing. The height was more how much of a distraction/challenge they are to compete against. Not in terms of being able to win a header against them, but also to win, control the direction and even add power.

In my example - Moreno and Nyom have identical success in the air, but Nyom is a much bigger unit and has a good 17cm and 16kg on Moreno. That means Moreno is making up that HUGE shortfall just on being a freak of nature in terms of athleticism. But, I wanted the height to account for instances when you donīt win the ball, rather than showing that they have a better chance of winning, which clearly isnīt the case. Therefore, I proposed that when you win a header against Nyom, he will do more to put you off having control over the header than Moreno. Again, based on nothing other than the fact that is what I used to do when playing. I didnīt aim to win the ball, just use by giant frame to make sure whoever won the ball didnīt get any real control over it. I have literally no other way to justify this with data, just an assumption.

Hey, Gibbs is bang average in the air.

Clyne's aerial success rate is so abnormally low it makes you wonder if something else is going on. Is he jumping into the player to let them win but misdirect the header? Is he not jumping, but preparing for the second ball? Might have to pay more attention...

Really not sure your "in the air" comment is needed. You could just strip that out and save yourself some typing

Clyne isnīt a player with many weaknesses, one I did notice though is he gets under the ball. And itīs a weird one too. If the opposing right back hits a long diagonal and Clyne needs to jump and head it under little pressure, he gets right under the ball and heads with lots of height, no direction or distance. I assumed he misjudged the flight, or wind, but it has happened a few times. The other possible is he mistimes his jump and is getting it while still rising or, more likely, starting to fall. Itīs weird though, something to look out for.

As for instances where he challenges opposition players, I knew it would be bad but that is ridiculously bad. How is that so much lower than Moreno and Rose for instance. I went back and looked at career data to see if itīs just something recurring or just one season of bizarre results and here are the outcomes.

Season	Total	Won	Win %
2012/13	30	9	30%
2013/14	33	10	30%
2014/15	41	14	34%
2015/16	32	11	34%

So yes, definitely something to keep an eye on.

[penga]

I decided to do this one as Height vs Success. This is based on my opinion that when being challenged by a larger opponent, even if you win the ball, their presence can be enough to prevent you directing the ball where you want or putting much power in the header. Therefore while Moreno & Nyom are similar in success rates, it is my opinion that being challenged by Moreno is less off-putting than a giant like Nyom.

Of course I have literally nothing to back that up with other than the fact I am 194cm but have a 50p dome. Therefore I was used to challenge and put off players rather than trying to win the ball myself as it was just as likely to go into my own goal as cleared from the box. Oh and if anybody wants to mock my inability to head the ball, have some of this.

You glossed over analysing the volume of aerial duels won again - which shows Robertson coming last out of the group - a possible cause for concern. Certainly shows he isn't going to improve us in the air or defending set pieces compared to Milner or Moreno. As I said earlier, seeing the balance of our squad with the favoured players in our creative midfield set up being short (Phil, Ads, Gini + the idea of Keita) and forwards, I thought it would've been a good idea to get a taller LB even if there was a theoretical weaknesses that may or may not be there in comparison to the ones we have including Clyne on the other side who is also a similar type in physical attributes but better defensively.

You have placed importance on VVD coming in for example, to assist with our very poor set piece defending but have also noted Lovren is quite good in the air so IMO the upgrade purely in that sense will be marginal as it is 1 slightly better aerialist replacing another good one generally and the rest of our team will be short and weak aerially still. If you add another 3rd taller body in there then that helps a fair bit more I think. You can see in preseason when Gomez goes to RB he wins many aerial duels even though you'd think it would be logical for the other team not to pump the ball long in his direction - but many teams try to catch you out on the counter with those types of balls like the ones played to Vardy are actually played in the air quite often. Gomez is limited going forward though, but you can buy pure LB's that aren't as limited going forward.

We now have 2 left backs quite similar in many ways being shorter and smaller but fast and good going forwards but still question marks defensively. Moreno was supposed to be sold so fair enough, it will just be straight up fair competition now to see how performs best which is alright. I go back to the example of Ghoulam - theoretically you can say he is passive and that might cost his team (which I don't think is likely considering Napoli still have a good defensive record as an attacking team as opposed to Hull conceding the most goals in the PL playing in a low block for example) but in any case I think it would've been more logical to pursue this type of player due to the upgrade in aerial ability vs perceived weakness with speed/agility against counter-attacks seeing as we already have one of those types on the other fullback position in Clyne as we have many fast players already - and the ones on the left side aren't necessarily great defenders yet either. Also I don't think a player like Ghoulam is as good as Moreno/Robertson in building up the play with aggressive 1-2s, however I think he has a better final ball still (and even if it was equal, I would accept the trade off). Confirmed again recently in the friendly against Atletico. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCBszIc2ue0

On the other end of taller, stronger LBs, I also noticed you didn't like Kolasinac as he would be deemed over-aggressive - he commits more fouls but his dribbled past is still quite good. He presses really high up the pitch and seems to make many tackles in the opposition half for Schalke so a lot of these fouls mightn't be in dangerous zones, in any case once again I wouldn't have minded trading off a bit more fouls for increased aerial ability in the team. I also think he could be coached to be less aggressive. However it is apparent he also has speed to go with his natural strength and for that reason reminds me a lot of Jose Enrique's physical attributes but also better in the air. He is good going forwards as well and offers tactical flexibility if we ever wanted to go 3 at the back too, looks a shrewd signing for Arsenal.



 

[Rush 82]

[Medellin]

Some great work in here,top drawer. 
Some of the charts batter my head tho i will admit.

Looking at that last chart i would have thought Trent was taller than Gini.

Saw this earlier..

[Klippity Klopp]

Your Mane question? I think Mane is most effective against full backs he can destroy with pace and power. Rose he cannot. Davies he can. But you put Rose (or Walker) up against someone like Coutinho and itīs a bloodbath.

Just thinking of this point you made Babu earlier in the summer.

Given we play Man City next against Walker.

Do you think selecting Coutinho would be a better option to go up against Walker?  With Mane maybe going back to the right?

Or would you stick with Mane & Salah on the flanks and make Coutinho sit on the bench (or deeper)?

As I think you are right.  I seem to remember Coutinho having a lot of success against Walker in the past.

[BabuYagu]

Just thinking of this point you made Babu earlier in the summer.

Given we play Man City next against Walker.

Do you think selecting Coutinho would be a better option to go up against Walker?  With Mane maybe going back to the right?

Or would you stick with Mane & Salah on the flanks and make Coutinho sit on the bench (or deeper)?

As I think you are right.  I seem to remember Coutinho having a lot of success against Walker in the past.

It's an interesting matchup for sure. I actually thought Walker was suspended for this but it's not, it's Sterling.

I remember in the 1-1 v Spurs last season Mane got in behind Rose a few times as he was positioning himself in between Vertongen & Rose when the centerbacks split. However he never really caused Rose himself any problems on the ball, only when he got in behind in transitions. There were a couple of good examples where he went left on the counter and Vorm had to come out a few times and win 50/50s against him. Against Davies though he had a lot of joy.

Mane & Moreno might struggle to expose Walker on that side as they are both explosive. Although overloads then come into it too. Our goal in that 1-1 game came from an overload & combination off Walker & Lamela with Lamela conceding a penalty on Firmino. Going in the other direction, Walker against Robertson could cause us some pain. He's more powerful and explosive than him. I'd back Robertson against De Bruyne or the Silva's but wouldn't like to see Walker get a run on him. Moreno gave an exhibition in defending a high explosive wing back last week on Chamberlain.

Then again Man City have been playing a 3-1-4-2 when Walker was available and 4-3-3 without. Therefore, we could end up with Mane v Stones and Moreno cancelling out Walker just as we saw against Arsenal. This ended up pinning AoC back and had him struggle to deal with both players with Gini & Firmino also popping up in his zone and no support from Ramsey.

Assuming City lineup how they have previously this season, we would then expect to have David Silva as RCM, Fernandinho #6, Walker RWB and Stones RCB. The same Gini, Mane, Moreno, Firmino combination is likely to cause them headaches. If City do end up with a back 4, finding a way to get Coutinho up against Walker on that side would be good for us. Walker always struggles against him. I really worry with Robertson's recovery pace against someone like Walker. I'd prefer to see him against a low block side or more technical wingers.

[Klippity Klopp]

It's an interesting matchup for sure. I actually thought Walker was suspended for this but it's not, it's Sterling.

I remember in the 1-1 v Spurs last season Mane got in behind Rose a few times as he was positioning himself in between Vertongen & Rose when the centerbacks split. However he never really caused Rose himself any problems on the ball, only when he got in behind in transitions. There were a couple of good examples where he went left on the counter and Vorm had to come out a few times and win 50/50s against him. Against Davies though he had a lot of joy.

Mane & Moreno might struggle to expose Walker on that side as they are both explosive. Although overloads then come into it too. Our goal in that 1-1 game came from an overload & combination off Walker & Lamela with Lamela conceding a penalty on Firmino. Going in the other direction, Walker against Robertson could cause us some pain. He's more powerful and explosive than him. I'd back Robertson against De Bruyne or the Silva's but wouldn't like to see Walker get a run on him. Moreno gave an exhibition in defending a high explosive wing back last week on Chamberlain.

Then again Man City have been playing a 3-1-4-2 when Walker was available and 4-3-3 without. Therefore, we could end up with Mane v Stones and Moreno cancelling out Walker just as we saw against Arsenal. This ended up pinning AoC back and had him struggle to deal with both players with Gini & Firmino also popping up in his zone and no support from Ramsey.

Assuming City lineup how they have previously this season, we would then expect to have David Silva as RCM, Fernandinho #6, Walker RWB and Stones RCB. The same Gini, Mane, Moreno, Firmino combination is likely to cause them headaches. If City do end up with a back 4, finding a way to get Coutinho up against Walker on that side would be good for us. Walker always struggles against him. I really worry with Robertson's recovery pace against someone like Walker. I'd prefer to see him against a low block side or more technical wingers.

Yes agree with all that.

Except for the Mane vs Rose point.  I thought Roe couldn't cope with Mane and just resorted to fouling him or pretending he was fouled by Mane.

Although it might be the best way for all full backs to deal with Mane, try and get him sent off. 

[nico 8]

It's an interesting matchup for sure. I actually thought Walker was suspended for this but it's not, it's Sterling.

I remember in the 1-1 v Spurs last season Mane got in behind Rose a few times as he was positioning himself in between Vertongen & Rose when the centerbacks split. However he never really caused Rose himself any problems on the ball, only when he got in behind in transitions. There were a couple of good examples where he went left on the counter and Vorm had to come out a few times and win 50/50s against him. Against Davies though he had a lot of joy.

Mane & Moreno might struggle to expose Walker on that side as they are both explosive. Although overloads then come into it too. Our goal in that 1-1 game came from an overload & combination off Walker & Lamela with Lamela conceding a penalty on Firmino. Going in the other direction, Walker against Robertson could cause us some pain. He's more powerful and explosive than him. I'd back Robertson against De Bruyne or the Silva's but wouldn't like to see Walker get a run on him. Moreno gave an exhibition in defending a high explosive wing back last week on Chamberlain.

Then again Man City have been playing a 3-1-4-2 when Walker was available and 4-3-3 without. Therefore, we could end up with Mane v Stones and Moreno cancelling out Walker just as we saw against Arsenal. This ended up pinning AoC back and had him struggle to deal with both players with Gini & Firmino also popping up in his zone and no support from Ramsey.

Assuming City lineup how they have previously this season, we would then expect to have David Silva as RCM, Fernandinho #6, Walker RWB and Stones RCB. The same Gini, Mane, Moreno, Firmino combination is likely to cause them headaches. If City do end up with a back 4, finding a way to get Coutinho up against Walker on that side would be good for us. Walker always struggles against him. I really worry with Robertson's recovery pace against someone like Walker. I'd prefer to see him against a low block side or more technical wingers.

With Robertson on international duty and Moreno off duty and at Melwood, I expect Moreno to start. His performance against Arsenal would have encouraged Klopp. Insofar as the midweek game is concerned, and being his old boyhood team, Robertson might come in for Moreno.