Author Topic: The NFL Thread  (Read 2725430 times)

Offline Vegeta

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71600 on: February 13, 2024, 09:01:11 am »
that's just rubbish.
Rubbish is coming up short every year and having 3 10+ points lead in The Super Bowl, 4 actually because that Rams NFC champions game in 2021 season felt like The real Super Bowl and bottling every single one of those games that's rubbish.
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Offline redwillow

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71601 on: February 13, 2024, 09:15:28 am »
The contract he is offered will be a big tell on how good he is. The staff that see him day in, day out will know how good he really is.

IMO, i don't think he is a top 10 QB right now. He can be, but he has had 1 good season with an absolute god squad of an offense. But once the run game was gone, he struggled. You can't deny it, yes he was under pressure but its the Super Bowl. You will be under pressure and it's how you deal with it. His accuracy just went to bits.

And as for the comeback drive against the Lions, i would love to hear how the Purdy aimed that pass to bounce off the lions helmet into the hands of Aiyuk.

Right now, i'd have Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lamar, Lawrence, Dak, Hurts, Rodgers, Herbert, Stafford above him. Could ofcourse change by next year.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71602 on: February 13, 2024, 09:37:54 am »
I hadn't realised that SF won the toss for OT and elected to receive first. I would think that's a mistake with the new OT rules. It allows the Chiefs to have 4 downs in every situation, knowing exactly what they needed to do each time. If the Chiefs had first possession, would they have gone for it 4th and 1 on their own 34? Maybe they would, but maybe not.
Quote
49ers players admit they did not know overtime rules in Super Bowl loss to Chiefs
> San Francisco coaching staff had discussed strategy
> Chiefs players say they had discussed rules for weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/feb/12/49ers-players-admit-they-did-not-know-overtime-rules-in-super-bowl-loss-to-chiefs
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Offline 1892tillforever

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71603 on: February 13, 2024, 09:51:17 am »
Stats wise it a slight benefit to go first. but it really a 50/50.
I would prefer knowing what I need to do win the game though.
LIke hoenstly either call is fine
Shanahan said that they wanted to be in a position where they got the ball third if need be. So, if you have the ball first and score a TD, the other team has to score a TD and then stop you on the next drive.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71604 on: February 13, 2024, 09:57:04 am »
Rubbish is coming up short every year and having 3 10+ points lead in The Super Bowl, 4 actually because that Rams NFC champions game in 2021 season felt like The real Super Bowl and bottling every single one of those games that's rubbish.

look at who he's lost to.

the opposition are allowed to play well too.

Offline Romford_Red

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71605 on: February 13, 2024, 10:04:17 am »
Not sure how he could - our OLine melted and allowed 2 rushers directly at him both times, meaning he had to run backwards and then attempt a pass to nobody free.  The one in OT especially no QB in the league could have done anything with. 

Up until that final OT play, Purdy had easily played as well as Mahomes (Purdy had a passer rating of 89, Mahomes 88 prior to Mahomes driving KCC down the field for the TD) - looked after the ball, threw it well, at no point looked like getting intercepted other then the one time when a diving Aiyuk (I think) dove for it, got both hands to it, then bobbled it .  Mahomes had his int, obviously, but 2 or 3 other times threw it straight towards a 49er who, if they were sharper, could have intercepted it. 

The issue was after his fumble, McCaffrey was easily stopped (he averaged 3.15 yards per carry for the rest of the game, and never made a single run more than 8 yards, and only 4 runs in 20 plays between 5 and 8 ), and our defence caller went to sleep and forgot that mahomes on a 4 and 1/2 will often run, instead allowing him all the space in the world to get those short yards.  That and the missed PAT from our rookie kicker.  If we compare him to the Garropolo in the last time we got to the SB, it isn't even close - Jimmy G had a passer rating of 69 that day (heck, even Mahomes had a poorer passer rating of 78) - in fact, out of Mahomes 4 trips to the SB, in 2 of them he did significantly worse (against worse defences) than Purdy did last night.

This is why I was worried about the 2nd half.

1st Half we DOMINATED the line. They couldn't stop us in attack and they couldn't live with us on defence. We shot ourselves in the foot with the fumble (no blame there, it happens) and especially the penalties on our second drive. I knew the Chiefs would adjust and having a longer half time to do that was always a worry.

2nd Half, they dominated the line on both sides of the ball.

People are trying to find ways to criticise the losers when in reality it was just a ridiculously tight game (I was so wound up that I couldn't sleep, even at 4am) that could have gone either way. As for the 9ers last offensive play in regulation (a 3rd down that is made would likely have iced the game), I know Romo said they should call timeout and he knows much more than me, but I didn't agree. The KC def was gassed and I felt we should have gone quick.

It is what it is.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71606 on: February 13, 2024, 11:22:32 am »
They absolutely did bottle it and that's because Kyle Shanahan is the biggest choke artist in NFL history

The guy has had three 10+ point leads in the Super Bowl as coach and lost every single one of them

I don't think he will ever get the job done of winning a Super Bowl and with him we are stuck in       
no-man's land, not good enough to win it but he's not bad enough to get the sack.
Not the way I see it, going for 4th down, 3pts down when you have a easy field goal isn't bottling it. I would say outsmarting himself more than anything. you always have to try and do the unexpected but there are limits. the fact it came off is irrelevant, I still think it wasn't a good call.am still not convinced taking the ball first was a good decision either, I maybe a bit harsh here but imo abandoning the run so early when they were dominating was the most costly decision, obviously they carried on with runs but they stopped ramming it down the Chiefs throats, that came back to haunt them in the 4th qt and OT so if I had 1 criticism it would be it's as if Shanahan has this thing about going against the norm to prove he's a genius or something and a mindset like this might be the reason for those previous losses rather than bottling it.
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Offline Ray K

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71607 on: February 13, 2024, 11:29:12 am »
It's such fine margins. If the replacement Niners right guard had remembered to block Chris Jones on that 3rd down red zone play in OT, Purdy would probably have found Brandon Aiyuk for what would probably be the game winning TD, and our opinion of Purdy and Shanahan would be completely different.
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Offline Red-Soldier

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71608 on: February 13, 2024, 11:34:13 am »
Rubbish is coming up short every year and having 3 10+ points lead in The Super Bowl, 4 actually because that Rams NFC champions game in 2021 season felt like The real Super Bowl and bottling every single one of those games that's rubbish.

Were you claiming Reid was rubbish too, whilst at Philly?  ::)

Shit happens.  You come up against top teams, and you lose.  It doesn't make you crap or rubbish.  It took Reid years to win the big one.  I liked watching his Philly team, but they always came up short, even with his cool trick plays and some great players. 

Shanahan is still young and has time on his side.  Fine margins between a win and a loss, as highlighted in the SB.

You don't need a star QB to win the SB, you just need a decent one who can look after the ball well.  I think Purdy is fine with this.  Look at some of the QB who have won it, in the past.

You could say that if you shut down the run, you shut down San Fran...?
« Last Edit: February 13, 2024, 11:41:52 am by Red-Soldier »

Offline JackWard33

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71609 on: February 13, 2024, 11:37:49 am »
It's such fine margins. If the replacement Niners right guard had remembered to block Chris Jones on that 3rd down red zone play in OT, Purdy would probably have found Brandon Aiyuk for what would probably be the game winning TD, and our opinion of Purdy and Shanahan would be completely different.

Yeah great point
Suspect the frustration for 9ers fans will be that if you played that first half 100 times they probably average at least a 2 score lead at halftime a majority of the time and it wouldn't be small margins

Offline Romford_Red

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71610 on: February 13, 2024, 11:43:00 am »
I think another thing to note is how, because KC are historically an explosive offence team, people have a hard time REALLY understanding just how good their DEF is.
I was really surprised at how we carved them up in the 1st half, which is why not putting points on the board at that time was so concerning.

I'm hoping we can keep the team together for the most part but beef up that Oline, because if the Oline could have been stronger in that game, SF probably puts up 30 points.

Offline Jookie

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71611 on: February 13, 2024, 11:52:45 am »
As long as the 49ers have that fraud of a head coach in charge they aren't winning any Super Bowl regardless of who the quaretback is.

Shanahan could have Burrow, Mahomes or CJ stroud as the QB and he'd still somehow fuck it up.


Andy Reid lost 5 Conference games and 1 SuperBowl plus lost another 8 other times in wildcard or divisional round game before his first SuperBowl win.

Coaches who can continually put their teams with a chance of making the latter stages of play offs will not often be fired. The belief is that being in contention most seasons means youíll eventually have a good chance of getting over the hump.


49ers have dealt with significant losses at the co-ordinator positions but continued to have a winning team. I think thatís a factor. This team with Ryans as DC probably win SuperBowl. Defense was much better in 2022 v 2023 despite he personnel potentially being better (addition of Hargrave, Young and Gregory versus loss of Ward, Omenihu, Al-Shaair).


49ers defeats have been close. So have some of their playoff wins over the years. Difference between winning and losing comes down to a few plays. Iím sure Shanahan could improve but putting it all on him seems a reductive argument in my opinion. So many factors involved.
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Offline redwillow

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71612 on: February 13, 2024, 11:58:16 am »
Very interesting point to consider, the McCaffrey touchdown should have been ruled out due to an illegible lineman past the line of scrimmage

Offline Romford_Red

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71613 on: February 13, 2024, 12:16:29 pm »
Very interesting point to consider, the McCaffrey touchdown should have been ruled out due to an illegible lineman past the line of scrimmage

You want another one on the other side?

Purdy threw deep to Deebo in the endzone. The defender has Deebo's arm hooked. Should really have been PI and 1st down from the 1.

That's just sports though. You get some you don't get others.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71614 on: February 13, 2024, 12:44:42 pm »

Andy Reid lost 5 Conference games and 1 SuperBowl plus lost another 8 other times in wildcard or divisional round game before his first SuperBowl win.


Wow. Mad that and a very good stat for Shanahan doubters to take on board.

A certain Jurgen Klopp lost 3 European finals before nailing the big one.

Offline Libertine

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71615 on: February 13, 2024, 01:29:27 pm »
Average 123m audience in the US - the most watched broadcast since the moon landing.

Offline Ray K

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71616 on: February 13, 2024, 02:18:45 pm »
Average 123m audience in the US - the most watched broadcast since the moon landing.
NASA really screwed up by not having Tay Tay in Mission Control in Houston. Granted it was 20 years before she was born, but those guys are meant to be geniuses.
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Offline Jookie

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71617 on: February 13, 2024, 02:24:45 pm »
Average 123m audience in the US - the most watched broadcast since the moon landing.

Shows how big NFL is in US.

Proportionally TV figures in US for NFL are massive compared to PL in UK. Even free to air games like FA Cup get a much lower % of population watching than NFL playoff games.

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Offline misscowred

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71618 on: February 13, 2024, 02:35:15 pm »
Shows how big NFL is in US.

Proportionally TV figures in US for NFL are massive compared to PL in UK. Even free to air games like FA Cup get a much lower % of population watching than NFL playoff games.

unfortunately, i think it's also the t*ylor s*ift effect...super bowl itself hasn't even been watched to those levels

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71619 on: February 13, 2024, 02:41:11 pm »
Spags is something else. that blitz on the 2min warning is insanely ballsy. incredible final, mahomes is straight up clutch. nobody can say anything about ref calls any bs, greatness won the  superbowl.

i dont get the fatigue thing with KC, the best player plays his best in the biggest moments. i hope he wins more playing like that, its something special to watch.

Offline redwillow

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71620 on: February 13, 2024, 02:42:39 pm »
You want another one on the other side?

Purdy threw deep to Deebo in the endzone. The defender has Deebo's arm hooked. Should really have been PI and 1st down from the 1.

That's just sports though. You get some you don't get others.

oh absolutely. I thought it was one of the best officiated games in a long time. No controversial plays, consistent in everything. Just don't want to hear the old refs & chiefs love affair excuses

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71621 on: February 13, 2024, 03:09:28 pm »
unfortunately, i think it's also the t*ylor s*ift effect...super bowl itself hasn't even been watched to those levels

up 7% on last year.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71622 on: February 13, 2024, 03:17:37 pm »
Shows how big NFL is in US.

Proportionally TV figures in US for NFL are massive compared to PL in UK. Even free to air games like FA Cup get a much lower % of population watching than NFL playoff games.
I don't think we can have it both ways, Football is bled to death, just so many competitions, the NFL philosophy is to leave them begging for more, credit to them for resisting the temptation, adding a few more teams hasn't changed that philosophy, I cant remember the facts exactly but was the NFL or the WWF who offered the other a massive amount to switch to a Saturday as they were both competing for a TV audience on the same day, ok we have cricket in a different season but that sort of thinking doesnt exist in football either.
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Offline misscowred

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71623 on: February 13, 2024, 03:19:39 pm »
up 7% on last year.

Exactly - 7 percent for a country of ~330M and viewership of around half that is quite a high number

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71624 on: February 13, 2024, 03:19:49 pm »
Shows how big NFL is in US.

Proportionally TV figures in US for NFL are massive compared to PL in UK. Even free to air games like FA Cup get a much lower % of population watching than NFL playoff games.

Yeah, the playoffs got big audiences in the US as well, week ending 21st Jan, NFL playoff games topped the ratings, both mainstream & cable TV, Chiefs @ Bills got [50.393], 24.2% rating alone, nearest non NFL/sports show was a distant 4th in the ratings.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71625 on: February 13, 2024, 03:21:47 pm »
the annual us tv ratings are always absolutely dominated by nfl games. nothing else even comes close.

and that's not hyperbole either.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71626 on: February 13, 2024, 03:42:00 pm »
the annual us tv ratings are always absolutely dominated by nfl games. nothing else even comes close.

and that's not hyperbole either.

Is that because itís the only one of their major sports that have one off fakes rather than a series in the play offs? And obviously far fewer fixtures in the regular season as well? So each game has a lot more rising on it than the other sports.

Offline Romford_Red

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71627 on: February 13, 2024, 03:50:01 pm »
Interesting video about the 9ers 3rd down in OT.

He focusses on the defensive shift that allows Chris Jones a free run and so the route to the corner doesn't have time to develop.
Something I noticed though is at the top left, look a Aiyuk.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/kziMqaWnVxQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/kziMqaWnVxQ</a>

If SF just block match and Jones is not in Purdy's face, he undoubtedly moves on from the corner, sees Aiyuk and that's an easy TD.

Fine margins indeed.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71628 on: February 13, 2024, 04:18:23 pm »
Spags is something else. that blitz on the 2min warning is insanely ballsy. incredible final, mahomes is straight up clutch. nobody can say anything about ref calls any bs, greatness won the  superbowl.

i dont get the fatigue thing with KC, the best player plays his best in the biggest moments. i hope he wins more playing like that, its something special to watch.

I think the blitz is the only call there, you either get a stop or give up a touchdown in that situation. If they move the chains the game is basically over.
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline Jookie

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71629 on: February 13, 2024, 05:59:07 pm »
unfortunately, i think it's also the t*ylor s*ift effect...super bowl itself hasn't even been watched to those levels

Last seasonís SuperBowl was the 2nd most watched TV event ever before this season overtook it.

Taylor Swift has probably had some effect. Mahomes going for 3rd SuperBowl. Chiefs versus Niners being 2 high profile teams in current NFL. Think itís potentially multi-factorial.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71630 on: February 13, 2024, 09:07:32 pm »
I see it's all about what 9ers should have could have done better. Nothing about what chiefs could have done better. Pacheco shouldn't have fumbled. Malomes shouldn't have thrown that interception.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2024, 09:37:00 pm by DiggerJohn »

Offline RedG13

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71631 on: February 13, 2024, 09:29:27 pm »
Shanahan said that they wanted to be in a position where they got the ball third if need be. So, if you have the ball first and score a TD, the other team has to score a TD and then stop you on the next drive.
KC was going for 2 if SF scored is the thing.
I get why they did it, but yea it not the wrong call per say

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71632 on: February 14, 2024, 01:05:24 am »
Shows how big NFL is in US.

Proportionally TV figures in US for NFL are massive compared to PL in UK. Even free to air games like FA Cup get a much lower % of population watching than NFL playoff games.

Those figures were higher than usual though, England games in the knockout stages of international tournaments probably do proportionately similar amounts and there can often be several of those per tournament.

Offline Jookie

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71633 on: February 14, 2024, 10:32:26 am »
The contract he is offered will be a big tell on how good he is. The staff that see him day in, day out will know how good he really is.

IMO, i don't think he is a top 10 QB right now. He can be, but he has had 1 good season with an absolute god squad of an offense. But once the run game was gone, he struggled. You can't deny it, yes he was under pressure but its the Super Bowl. You will be under pressure and it's how you deal with it. His accuracy just went to bits.

And as for the comeback drive against the Lions, i would love to hear how the Purdy aimed that pass to bounce off the lions helmet into the hands of Aiyuk.

Right now, i'd have Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lamar, Lawrence, Dak, Hurts, Rodgers, Herbert, Stafford above him. Could ofcourse change by next year.

Hard to know how good Purdy is.

ButÖÖÖ.

Heís had more than 1 good season. He was excellent in 2022 too though only half a season. People had time to prepare for him and the 49ers this season. They had tape on him and he was still statistically the best QB in the league.

The comeback v the Lions was more than the Aiyuk drive. There was luck in that play. Maybe it was the key play.  It it wasnít the only play in coming back from being multiple scores down.

I donít necessarily disagree with Purdy being outside of Top10 QBs. However Iíd be interested in hearing why you think Lawrence is better than Purdy. Excluding draft position,  college career and using just NFL performance what has Lawrence shown that better than Purdy. His situation hasnít always been advantageous as Purdyís but Lawrence wasnít great this season.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71634 on: February 14, 2024, 10:34:52 am »
Those figures were higher than usual though, England games in the knockout stages of international tournaments probably do proportionately similar amounts and there can often be several of those per tournament.

Those are international tournaments where countries are involved. This is a domestic league that takes place every year.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71635 on: February 14, 2024, 03:15:44 pm »
Those are international tournaments where countries are involved. This is a domestic league that takes place every year.

Shows there is a similarly large audience here too when it is a big match that appeals to neutrals which isn't the case with club football though.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71636 on: February 14, 2024, 03:47:36 pm »
Shows there is a similarly large audience here too when it is a big match that appeals to neutrals which isn't the case with club football though.


but that IS club football.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71637 on: February 14, 2024, 04:01:10 pm »
Based on ability alone:

Jackson
Mahomes
Allen
Burrow
Stafford
Hurts
Herbert

As a long term option Iíd have Purdy over Stafford though.


Think Purdy is in tier with:


Cousins
CJ Stroud
Lawrence
Prescott
Tagovailoa


At best I think Purdy is a top 7-8 QB but a level or so down from best QBs. At worst, his 1st 2 years in NFL put him about 14-15th best.

Got to remember heís only just finished his 2nd season. Heís on a very team friendly contract. He could improve over next few seasons and be very cheap in terms of cap. Might be difference between keeping Aiyuk, Jennings, Greenlaw, Hufanga beyond current contracts.

As a 9er fan - I wouldn't take Burrow, Herbert, Hurts or Stafford above Purdy, and its not even close either for any of them.  Tua is better than all 4 of them comfortably for instance already (I might take him).  And all the stats back that up - Herbert is the best of that bunch of QBs, with a passer rating of 93.2 this season (Purdy was at 113); Stafford was 92.5, Burrow 91 and Hurts 89.1 (and was *ATROCIOUSLY BAD* in every single big match the Eagles played this season - he was the main reason they were only the #5 seeds and got whalloped by a bad Bucs team in the post season). 

Allen has shown many years of performing as a top 5 (but throw too many Interceptions this year) - and Purdy *has* outperformed him in every stat this year; Jackson choked far more vs the Chiefs (and a bad Mahomes Chiefs at that) this post-season (and would cost far far far too much money) - but his ability with his feet is definitely very good.

He is already *performing* the same as a top 5 QB - not sure how someone who is easily leading the league in almost every single passing statistic (other than pure number of TDs) can really improve and get much better.  It's not like his game let the team down even slightly (he was very good mostly) on Sunday - it was the Defence repeatedly forgetting that Mahomes can run and not even trying to mark him (especially on the key 3rd and 2 in the 4th quarter which led to them taking the game into OT, AND the 4th an 1 in OT which led to them scoring a TD instead of being stopped); the missed PAT meaning that the FG was enough to take the game into OT; the O-Line for basically melting every single pressure play forcing Purdy to continually be running back and panicking; and poor play calling not giving the ball to CMC more in the 2nd and 3rd quarters - allowing the KCC D to rush Purdy more.

Offline misscowred

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71638 on: February 14, 2024, 06:40:39 pm »
i'm from KC, watching the parade now with tears in my eyes. never in a million years did we ever think this team could get to the levels they're at now, but we always wanted it. i am so proud of this team. no words.

Offline RedSince86

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71639 on: February 14, 2024, 07:53:01 pm »
i'm from KC, watching the parade now with tears in my eyes. never in a million years did we ever think this team could get to the levels they're at now, but we always wanted it. i am so proud of this team. no words.
Congrats.

Will they 3peat next season.
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