Author Topic: The NFL Thread  (Read 2722178 times)

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71560 on: February 12, 2024, 01:28:12 pm »
This is exactly my take on Purdy - which people cannot comprehend as they think its a dig at him. He is a good QB, a very fine QB, but you just never got the sense he was going to make some WOW plays when CMC was getting stuffed and his recievers were locked up.

He deserves to be the starter, and if 49ers keep that offence together then he will probably get another shot at a SB or NFCCG atleast.

Can we also just take a moment to reflect on that game winning TD drive from Mahomes. 8/8, 2 big rushes. No debate about refs on his side, just pure clutch
Yeah, Mahomes is very quick to see a opportunity to run up the middle, it's practically instant but that opportunity has to be given, Purdy never got that opportunity, what he did do is throw the ball away instantly for the opportunity for 2 vital field goals. he could have set up the winner with less than 2 min to go, drops back and Kansas in his face, most QB would have been sacked before they had time to throw the ball away, Purdy reacted instantly and threw it away allowing SF to kick a feild goal with less than 2 min to go.
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Offline Jookie

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71561 on: February 12, 2024, 01:28:23 pm »
it used to be. until the 28-3 game a 10 point lead in the super bowl pretty much meant game over.

It hasn't done in last 5-7 years though.

A 10 point lead in the 4th quarter is massive. I'm not sure it is when there's more than half of the game to play. SF should have been up by more than 7 at half-time and maybe that was the key. Didn't step on the Chiefs when they were dominating.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71562 on: February 12, 2024, 01:32:57 pm »
For a game where the offenses struggled so much, you'd have to say it was still an amazing contest in the end. Not sure if you could call it a classic but was a fascinating game.

Paying for it today though.
I don’t watch often these days but I found it very absorbing, was close throughout, and some real plays of quality eventually got KC the win.
I think some are being a bit harsh on Purdy thought he had a really good game on the whole, but KC have the experience and Mahomes was able to call on that once more in the end, that was a great last drive

Also paying for it today
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71563 on: February 12, 2024, 01:43:22 pm »
For a game where the offenses struggled so much, you'd have to say it was still an amazing contest in the end. Not sure if you could call it a classic but was a fascinating game.

Paying for it today though.

I said it'd be a defensive battle yesterday & that's how it turned out to be, i enjoyed the game because it was quite defensive battle, the game opened up in the 4th as defences were shot.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71564 on: February 12, 2024, 01:44:16 pm »
It hasn't done in last 5-7 years though.

A 10 point lead in the 4th quarter is massive. I'm not sure it is when there's more than half of the game to play. SF should have been up by more than 7 at half-time and maybe that was the key. Didn't step on the Chiefs when they were dominating.

Agree SF lost it in the first half.
The fumble in the opening drive - when their schemed plays were working perfectly - was a low key big moment in a low scoring game

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71565 on: February 12, 2024, 01:50:27 pm »
To be fair, there are less than 5 QBs in the history of the sport you'd have more faith on that Mahomes - and the SF defence was beat up to boot (losing Greenlaw super early was really important).  It'd be like criticising Suarez at Barcelona for scoring fewer goals than Messi - it is entirely accurate to say that Brock had a very fine SB, and was in no way at fault even slightly for the 49ers loss - and given his performance in the regular season and the last 2 play off games, he is deservedly being touted as the best QB we've had since Montana or Young.
I think the jury is still out on Purdy, he may get there of course but I'm not convinced. I'd still take him in Dallas though
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71566 on: February 12, 2024, 01:52:51 pm »
Agree SF lost it in the first half.
The fumble in the opening drive - when their schemed plays were working perfectly - was a low key big moment in a low scoring game

Any turnover is huge in the SB.  Thus, it proved to be, again.  They started off really well, and were rolling.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71567 on: February 12, 2024, 01:53:18 pm »
I hadn't realised that SF won the toss for OT and elected to receive first. I would think that's a mistake with the new OT rules. It allows the Chiefs to have 4 downs in every situation, knowing exactly what they needed to do each time. If the Chiefs had first possession, would they have gone for it 4th and 1 on their own 34? Maybe they would, but maybe not.
Sounds like the Chiefs agreed and would have kicked if they won the toss, 49ers prioritised getting the ball 3rd

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/12/24070402/san-francisco-49ers-receive-kick-overtime-decision-kyle-shanahan-super-bowl

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71568 on: February 12, 2024, 02:00:43 pm »
Yeah, Mahomes is very quick to see a opportunity to run up the middle, it's practically instant but that opportunity has to be given, Purdy never got that opportunity, what he did do is throw the ball away instantly for the opportunity for 2 vital field goals. he could have set up the winner with less than 2 min to go, drops back and Kansas in his face, most QB would have been sacked before they had time to throw the ball away, Purdy reacted instantly and threw it away allowing SF to kick a feild goal with less than 2 min to go.

That's what I like about Mahomes makes good decisions. Lamar in the conference final didn't his ego made him want to show people he could throw it. Should have just run

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71569 on: February 12, 2024, 02:06:15 pm »
It hasn't done in last 5-7 years though.

A 10 point lead in the 4th quarter is massive. I'm not sure it is when there's more than half of the game to play. SF should have been up by more than 7 at half-time and maybe that was the key. Didn't step on the Chiefs when they were dominating.

I just heard that in playoff games, other teams are 6-48 when down by 10 points. The chiefs are 5-1.

They're just good.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71570 on: February 12, 2024, 02:36:36 pm »
Spags needs to come home to the NY Giants.

That Blitz play made me grin, brought back memories blitzing Brady in that Superbowl.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71571 on: February 12, 2024, 02:41:05 pm »
That's what I like about Mahomes makes good decisions. Lamar in the conference final didn't his ego made him want to show people he could throw it. Should have just run
Yeah, I suppose they can all make good decisions when they are given the time to do it. I think that's where Mahomes and Purdy excel, both sense danger quickly, both sense the opportunity's that gives them when the defences try to put them in danger. Jackson looks the most physically built talent but as you say makes the wrong decisions when he has to act fast. don't get me wrong though, when it comes to sensing the opportunity to run then theres none better than Mahomes.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71572 on: February 12, 2024, 02:57:43 pm »
This is the third time Kyle Shanahan has had a significant lead in a Super Bowl and bottled it. First time as the OC for the Falcons against the Pats and in the previous Super Bowl against the Chiefs....

Spurs and Arsenal to battle for him to take over as manager?  ;D

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71573 on: February 12, 2024, 03:01:04 pm »
Good point, at the time I thought old rules applied to overtime which were 1st TD wins game so wasn't surprised to see them elect to get the ball first . that's the only reason for doing this as your right you know exactly what you have to do when you take the ball 2nd,  high scoring game and maybe they do go for 4th down but not that many TDs in game, makes you wonder.

While technically it could be a benefit, there is also the added pressure on the team going second if you have scored, especially if it was a td and it was sudden death for them and you have to have enough faith in both sides of your team to do their part of the job.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71574 on: February 12, 2024, 03:09:48 pm »
While technically it could be a benefit, there is also the added pressure on the team going second if you have scored, especially if it was a td and it was sudden death for them and you have to have enough faith in both sides of your team to do their part of the job.

Been thinking on this.

Both calls have their pros and cons. Which in a way shows that it's better for the game than the old OT rules.

If the 9ers get in for a TD then it's a huge pressure on the Chiefs.

However going 2nd then as a worst case scenario you are playing in 4th down territory. It's pressured but then it is OT!

Feels for Shannahan a bit just because there is no precedent for this in the NFL
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71575 on: February 12, 2024, 03:14:27 pm »
While technically it could be a benefit, there is also the added pressure on the team going second if you have scored, especially if it was a td and it was sudden death for them and you have to have enough faith in both sides of your team to do their part of the job.
Yeah but it still affects your decisions and therfore calls when you take the ball 2nd. if your 3 pts down in the red zone then your taking no chances on 3rd down, your not throwing balls into the end zone in tight coverage, keeping procession to kick the field goal on 4 th down is the most important thing, 7 points down and you will most likely take those chances as you have no choice, you have to score a TD, I know what you mean though the other side of the coin is putting pressure on other team when you score first, I think the majority would go with taking the ball 2nd.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71576 on: February 12, 2024, 03:20:33 pm »
I've been thinking and feel I was harsh on Brock in here earlier.  Being a 49ers fan of 40 years it was just a knee-jerk reaction dickhead fans like me do from time to time

The lad has achieved something that most QBs will only ever dream about, by simply playing in a Superbowl. I really hope he has another crack at it next season, a year older and wiser.

KC defended magnificently and there is no shame in being slightly less effective on the day to arguably one of the best QBs to ever walk the planet.

Similar to Man City now and Liverpool/Utd teams of the past, Kansas always looks like they will find something when they need it.


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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71577 on: February 12, 2024, 03:41:42 pm »
There are too many variables for these OT rules to determine what's the optimal route, though it probably leans towards going second.  In college, it's easy as since you're guaranteed a possession each OT, you always go second to start, and there's no downside since if it's 2nd OT, you still get a chance.

The playoffs NFL rule is weird since if you do go second and match the score, the other team can win it with sudden death.  So if you're the Chiefs and the Niners scored a TD on the first possession, you match them, but now it's sudden death, and SF has the ball now (would you even consider going for 2 as the ultimate ballsy move to win it right there?).  But you can control your own destiny, provided you can always outscore your opponent, and you have 4 downs if they scored.  If you go first, the good news is that if you can hold the other team to a matching score or lower, you now have sudden death and destiny in your hands.  But the bad news is that you can't keep the other team from using all 4 downs to beat your score (unless you went wild and scored a TD and went for 2 and got it on the first possession).

Given the importance of the games that these rules apply in (NFL playoffs), I'd venture it's rare we'll see some team going first, scoring a TD, and then going for 2, or a team getting the ball second down 7, scoring a TD, and going for 2, but I'd love to see that play out, and see if any of these permutations cause a shift towards wanting the ball first or second.  Maybe Dan Campbell will show us the light.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71578 on: February 12, 2024, 03:45:11 pm »
Mahomes’ composure in those final drives in the last Quarter and OT were something else. It felt inevitable that he’d at the very least get into FG territory but then there’s so much pressure because one mistake with a fumble or loose pass and it’s game over.

Great to watch. Glad I fell asleep with it on the phone and the headphones on as i woke up again at the start of the 4th quarter.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71579 on: February 12, 2024, 04:37:09 pm »
Yeah but it still affects your decisions and therfore calls when you take the ball 2nd. if your 3 pts down in the red zone then your taking no chances on 3rd down, your not throwing balls into the end zone in tight coverage, keeping procession to kick the field goal on 4 th down is the most important thing, 7 points down and you will most likely take those chances as you have no choice, you have to score a TD, I know what you mean though the other side of the coin is putting pressure on other team when you score first, I think the majority would go with taking the ball 2nd.

I think the biggest issue was that they were facing Mahomes so either option was a pick your poison situation, you let him go first and you have a good chance of needing to score a td just to stay in the game, let him go second and he's got the benefit of 4th downs.

The best tactic in OT would seem to be, face somebody other than Mahomes.  ;D

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71580 on: February 12, 2024, 04:53:56 pm »
Mahomes’ composure in those final drives in the last Quarter and OT were something else. It felt inevitable that he’d at the very least get into FG territory but then there’s so much pressure because one mistake with a fumble or loose pass and it’s game over.

Great to watch. Glad I fell asleep with it on the phone and the headphones on as i woke up again at the start of the 4th quarter.

I said to my mate  after the 4 and 1 and 3 and 8 (?) conversion in that drive that it felt like us against Fulham - when we scored the 3rd every automatically believed we would win. It felt like after Mahomes did that, everyone on KC and everyone on the 49ers new that KC were getting a touchdown and mentally accepted it

Offline JackWard33

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71581 on: February 12, 2024, 05:03:52 pm »
I've been thinking and feel I was harsh on Brock in here earlier.  Being a 49ers fan of 40 years it was just a knee-jerk reaction dickhead fans like me do from time to time

The lad has achieved something that most QBs will only ever dream about, by simply playing in a Superbowl. I really hope he has another crack at it next season, a year older and wiser.

KC defended magnificently and there is no shame in being slightly less effective on the day to arguably one of the best QBs to ever walk the planet.

Similar to Man City now and Liverpool/Utd teams of the past, Kansas always looks like they will find something when they need it.



Yeah Purdy did well considering his stage of career
Chris Jones’ game wasn’t give enough air time - he disrupted several passes I including a couple of deep balls and one almost certain TD .. without him Purdy probably has a stellar night
His poise and accuracy is legit - no idea how good he’ll become but at the absolute minimum hes a middle of the pack league QB already

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71582 on: February 12, 2024, 05:11:00 pm »
This is exactly my take on Purdy - which people cannot comprehend as they think its a dig at him. He is a good QB, a very fine QB, but you just never got the sense he was going to make some WOW plays when CMC was getting stuffed and his recievers were locked up.

He deserves to be the starter, and if 49ers keep that offence together then he will probably get another shot at a SB or NFCCG atleast.

Can we also just take a moment to reflect on that game winning TD drive from Mahomes. 8/8, 2 big rushes. No debate about refs on his side, just pure clutch

The digs on him were more like the ones calling him an "average" QB (which has happened a number of times on this thread), such as:

There's the difference right there. An elite QB v an average one.

good night.

Or people claiming the jury is "still out" on him, despite a historically great season for SF and him only being in his 2nd year.

I think the jury is still out on Purdy, he may get there of course but I'm not convinced. I'd still take him in Dallas though

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71583 on: February 12, 2024, 05:13:50 pm »
Yeah Purdy did well considering his stage of career
Chris Jones’ game wasn’t give enough air time - he disrupted several passes I including a couple of deep balls and one almost certain TD .. without him Purdy probably has a stellar night
His poise and accuracy is legit - no idea how good he’ll become but at the absolute minimum hes a middle of the pack league QB already

He is a top 10 QB already, no doubt about it.  A "middle of the pack" league QB doesn't have a 31/11 TD/Int record in the regular season, or lead the league with a 113 passer rating, or have a 69.4% completion rate (second by 0.1%) with an average of 9.6 yards per *attempt* - and doing all the despite having a bottom 5 O Line at protecting the pass in the league.

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71584 on: February 12, 2024, 05:19:10 pm »

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71585 on: February 12, 2024, 05:40:32 pm »
He is a top 10 QB already, no doubt about it.  A "middle of the pack" league QB doesn't have a 31/11 TD/Int record in the regular season, or lead the league with a 113 passer rating, or have a 69.4% completion rate (second by 0.1%) with an average of 9.6 yards per *attempt* - and doing all the despite having a bottom 5 O Line at protecting the pass in the league.

If you're going to mention the O line you also have to mention the league's best running back and arguably best receiving options he has to work with.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71586 on: February 12, 2024, 05:49:57 pm »
The digs on him were more like the ones calling him an "average" QB (which has happened a number of times on this thread), such as:



Yeah, you quoted me from last night, but I repented earlier today.  I guess you didn't see my latest post or just ignored it.  Anyway here it is.

I've been thinking and feel I was harsh on Brock in here earlier.  Being a 49ers fan of 40 years it was just a knee-jerk reaction dickhead fans like me do from time to time

The lad has achieved something that most QBs will only ever dream about, by simply playing in a Superbowl. I really hope he has another crack at it next season, a year older and wiser.

KC defended magnificently and there is no shame in being slightly less effective on the day to arguably one of the best QBs to ever walk the planet.

Similar to Man City now and Liverpool/Utd teams of the past, Kansas always looks like they will find something when they need it.



He is obviously not just an Average QB.  He's well above average.

Genuine question. How many of the other starting QB's would the Niners take before Brock?


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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71587 on: February 12, 2024, 06:18:47 pm »
Genuine question. How many of the other starting QB's would the Niners take before Brock?



Based on ability alone:

Jackson
Mahomes
Allen
Burrow
Stafford
Hurts
Herbert

As a long term option I’d have Purdy over Stafford though.


Think Purdy is in tier with:


Cousins
CJ Stroud
Lawrence
Prescott
Tagovailoa


At best I think Purdy is a top 7-8 QB but a level or so down from best QBs. At worst, his 1st 2 years in NFL put him about 14-15th best.

Got to remember he’s only just finished his 2nd season. He’s on a very team friendly contract. He could improve over next few seasons and be very cheap in terms of cap. Might be difference between keeping Aiyuk, Jennings, Greenlaw, Hufanga beyond current contracts.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71588 on: February 12, 2024, 06:26:37 pm »
Yeah Purdy did well considering his stage of career
Chris Jones’ game wasn’t give enough air time - he disrupted several passes I including a couple of deep balls and one almost certain TD .. without him Purdy probably has a stellar night
His poise and accuracy is legit - no idea how good he’ll become but at the absolute minimum hes a middle of the pack league QB already

Jones for the Chiefs and Bosa for the Niners were both excellent. Disrupted the QB on a lot of plays without necessarily getting a lot of stats in the box score.


Ultimately I think the Niners may have to invest some draft picks in the OL over next few years. Need a Williams replacement in next few years and could do with improving at RG and maybe RT.


Got a fair amount of draft picks in 2024 -11 in total. Lance and CMc deals meant they haven’t had much draft capital since 21. Got 4 picks in 1st 3 rounds in 2024. Need to hit on those whilst maintaining current core
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71589 on: February 12, 2024, 06:28:51 pm »
Based on ability alone:

Jackson
Mahomes
Allen
Burrow
Stafford
Hurts
Herbert

As a long term option I’d have Purdy over Stafford though.


Think Purdy is in tier with:


Cousins
CJ Stroud
Lawrence
Prescott
Tagovailoa


At best I think Purdy is a top 7-8 QB but a level or so down from best QBs. At worst, his 1st 2 years in NFL put him about 14-15th best.

Got to remember he’s only just finished his 2nd season. He’s on a very team friendly contract. He could improve over next few seasons and be very cheap in terms of cap. Might be difference between keeping Aiyuk, Jennings, Greenlaw, Hufanga beyond current contracts.

Hurts potentially overrated there and the lack of Jordan Love is a disgrace   ;D
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71590 on: February 12, 2024, 06:39:00 pm »
Hurts potentially overrated there and the lack of Jordan Love is a disgrace   ;D

The names weren’t necessarily in rank order.

I’d probably add Love to that 2nd tier. Sample size of NFL games for Love is really small though. Looked good in parts last season. Next season is a big one for him. Has he signed an extension of his rookie deal yet?
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71591 on: February 12, 2024, 06:41:41 pm »
The value of Purdy is indeed short-term as you have a top 10 QB having a $1MM cap hit for the next two years.  The question is when he's due for his extension (which they'd probably want to get done by end of next year), how much do they want to extend him?  If you truly believe he's the future and he's got the numbers to prove it, it's $40-$50MM per year easy.  To put it in perspective, Dak's contract has a $59MM cap hit in 2024 and a $36MM cap hit in 2025 (he's due for an extension also).

It hamstrings a team unless your QB is truly elite and is worth that chunk of cap.  As Jookie says, the Niners must hit on drafting to 1) keep this window going before any Purdy extension) and 2) set the team up for roster turnover if Purdy does get the big boy contract.  Deebo Samuel is 28 years old and has a spotty injury record.  His cap hit is $8MM in 2026 and $1MM in 2027.  He's probably gone (or restructured to not be a cap problem) before Purdy's extension truly kicks in.  McCaffrey is also 28 years old and has a spotty injury record.  His cap hit is $14MM in 2024 and 25 but only $4MM in 2026.  He's probably also not a cap problem for Purdy's extension.

So the good news is that the Niners window is open for a couple of years at the minimum, but they'll have to start replacing players well if they do keep Purdy.  Bosa's on mega-money for a few more years yet, but that's ok (even when Purdy gets paid) as you're almost never getting that level of talent as the premium positions require very high picks anyway.  Williams' age will be one to watch.

It's a delicate balance, but well-run orgs can get through it.  There are always seem to be holes to fill though if the QB gets a mega-deal, but the drafting/development don't keep up.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71592 on: February 12, 2024, 06:42:21 pm »
The names weren’t necessarily in rank order.

I’d probably add Love to that 2nd tier. Sample size of NFL games for Love is really small though. Looked good in parts last season. Next season is a big one for him. Has he signed an extension of his rookie deal yet?

He was the best Quarterback in the league over the second half of the season.

Negotiations still ongoing, but he's going to get paid this off-season.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71593 on: February 12, 2024, 07:21:01 pm »
That one hurts last night Chiefs was there for the taking but we made to many stupid mistakes that cost us the game.

Gonna be tough to recover from that one for the Niners wouldn't be stunned if they have a Super Bowl hangover next season and miss the playoffs as Seattle and Rams are gonna be very good teams next season.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2024, 07:23:13 pm by Vegeta »
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71594 on: February 12, 2024, 08:48:49 pm »
That one hurts last night Chiefs was there for the taking but we made to many stupid mistakes that cost us the game.

Gonna be tough to recover from that one for the Niners wouldn't be stunned if they have a Super Bowl hangover next season and miss the playoffs as Seattle and Rams are gonna be very good teams next season.
I don't know, was it down to the team or bad calls, few crucial mistakes, that heel clip and kansas recovery for a td was a killer but I don't think the 49rs bottled it, some of the top players gave their all and you can't ask for more than that, I think they came away thinking they should of won but never cashed in when they were on top, down to bad play calling or just good play calling from Chiefs defensive co -ordinator. I always try and form a opinions on next season while the season is fresh in my mind so I can do a bet for next season and am certainly not ruling them out.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71595 on: February 13, 2024, 02:46:54 am »
I hadn't realised that SF won the toss for OT and elected to receive first. I would think that's a mistake with the new OT rules. It allows the Chiefs to have 4 downs in every situation, knowing exactly what they needed to do each time. If the Chiefs had first possession, would they have gone for it 4th and 1 on their own 34? Maybe they would, but maybe not.
Stats wise it a slight benefit to go first. but it really a 50/50.
I would prefer knowing what I need to do win the game though.
LIke hoenstly either call is fine

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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71596 on: February 13, 2024, 08:07:07 am »
I don't think the 49rs bottled it
They absolutely did bottle it and that's because Kyle Shanahan is the biggest choke artist in NFL history

The guy has had three 10+ point leads in the Super Bowl as coach and lost every single one of them

I don't think he will ever get the job done of winning a Super Bowl and with him we are stuck in       
no-man's land, not good enough to win it but he's not bad enough to get the sack.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71597 on: February 13, 2024, 08:41:14 am »
The digs on him were more like the ones calling him an "average" QB (which has happened a number of times on this thread), such as:

Or people claiming the jury is "still out" on him, despite a historically great season for SF and him only being in his 2nd year.

My mate has been a Niners fan for 40 years, through the Montana and Young years. He's not convinced by Purdy.

Is he good enough to win a Superbowl? Sunday says not at the moment so yes the jury is still out on him. He's a decent QB but can he win the big one.

I've already said I'd take him in Dallas over Dak as he doesn't make as many mistakes
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71598 on: February 13, 2024, 08:52:26 am »
As long as the 49ers have that fraud of a head coach in charge they aren't winning any Super Bowl regardless of who the quaretback is.

Shanahan could have Burrow, Mahomes or CJ stroud as the QB and he'd still somehow fuck it up.
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Re: The NFL Thread
« Reply #71599 on: February 13, 2024, 08:53:08 am »
that's just rubbish.