Topic: PL: Man Utd 2 vs 2 Liv Diaz 23’ Fernandes 50’ Mainoo 67’ Mo 84’

[istvan kozma]

it is

No it isn't, you can't pick and choose when you use stats. You're the first to use XG to back up your argument, now you're telling us missing sitters is down to luck.

[RyanBabel19]

Nunez slipping in the first 5mins when through.

Yeah that’s definitely one, I am however talking about the entire balance of the game as I think it’s a very interesting take.


I’d agree in some games this season e.g. us hitting the woodwork numerous times in games or things being literally inches from a successful pass or shot.

One slip early on doesn’t make for an incredibly unlucky 90 minutes in the final third though

[Draex]

Yeah that’s definitely one, I am however talking about the entire balance of the game as I think it’s a very interesting take.


I’d agree in some games this season e.g. us hitting the woodwork numerous times in games or things being literally inches from a successful pass or shot.

One slip early on doesn’t make for an incredibly unlucky 90 minutes in the final third though

Nope we weren't unlucky, just indecisive!

[Schmarn]

Feel a lot better about it all today. If it was in City’s hands i’d feel different as there run in is easier and their squad deeper than Arsenal (and they’re cheats) but no way do Arsenal win out from here with tough CL games in between. The bookies have City as favourites which tells you that they think Arsenal and we will drop points. Take care of our business and see where we are at the end of the month.

Can’t wait for the next game.

[telekon]

Still fuming about this result. I said in the half-time thread they would score with their first shot. If I were a betting man I could have made a small fortune. Crap teams value their chances because they don't know when the next one will come along. We seem to only apply this value to our chances when we're chasing a result late in the second half. I wish we could adopt this mindset throughout the entire game.

So you're saying that players only score when they've decided to score.

Yeah, makes sense.

[JackWard33]

No it isn't, you can't pick and choose when you use stats. You're the first to use XG to back up your argument, now you're telling us missing sitters is down to luck.

My answer was the embodiment of the use of stats
In fact it might be the greatest two word explainer of xg in the history of nerdom

Xg measures quality of chance repeated over time
If you produce lot of chances you’ll score a lot of goals
If you produce a lot of chances in a one off game and don’t score then it’s bad luck … or to use the nerdy term .. short term variance

Missing a one off chance that’s <0.5 xg is the expected outcome … missing 3 of them is bad luck

Producing 1 goal from 2.8 xg as we did on Sunday (when you take out the penalty) is short term variance aka bad luck

Missing a lot of chances that add up to significant xg in the short term is almost always variance and usually not the narratives constructed post event to explain the missed chances

[NarutoReds]

Maguire was outstanding though. he isnt that bad. The young french lad was good as well.  Not beyond the realms of possibility that a young French CB is actually good.

With the full of respect, mate... Maguire fouled BOTH of Salah and Diaz in front of Anthony Taylor.

Like literally really in front of Anthony, fucking, Taylor...

And yes, ZERO foul decided for those actions.

I was screaming when Maguire did that.

If someone thinks that I am lying, you could just check back the replay.

[decosabute]

it is

Fuck the stats off for a second.

Unlucky is someone slipping with the goal gaping.
Unlucky is running into a keeper having the game of his life and stopping goals that most keepers wouldn't stop.
Unlucky is officials making awful, game-changing decisions that rob you.

None of those things were the case yesterday.

Missing sitter after sitter, blowing 5 on 2 counter attacks, making awful decisions in the final third is NOT UNLUCKY. Fuck the idea of statistical variance. We didn’t blow that game because of luck. We got what we deserved for not smashing a team that was begging for it.

[PaleBlueDot]

Fuck the stats off for a second.

Unlucky is someone slipping with the goal gaping.
Unlucky is running into a keeper having the game of his life and stopping goals that most keepers wouldn't stop.
Unlucky is officials making awful, game-changing decisions that rob you.

None of those things were the case yesterday.

Missing sitter after sitter, blowing 5 on 2 counter attacks, making awful decisions in the final third is NOT UNLUCKY. Fuck the idea of statistical variance. We didn’t blow that game because of luck. We got what we deserved for not smashing a team that was begging for it.

Absolutely correct.

An attack made from chaos rather than precision is always going to produce games like this. Sometimes it clicks and we stick 5 past a team but more often than not we need way more opportunities than necessary to put a team away. This was fine back when we had a workhorse midfield and our play-maker was gegenpressing. But we now have a coherant defence and midfield. We've outgrown the chaos in attack and I think the new manager will revamp his attack sooner rather than later, as uprising as that sounds.

[Funky_Gibbons]

We’re the highest goalscorers in Europes top five leagues - check.

We’re the second highest goal scorers in the league - check.

Our xG 70.8 and we’ve scored 72 - check

So we’re overperforming in front of goal and don’t need loads of chances - check.

The attack is the teams weakness and needs addressing in the summer - wrong

[redtel]

Not a pleasant afternoon watching us struggle to win a game we dominated throughout.
How many of us have seen this against these over the years?

Man U did what they have been doing for more years than I care to recall. Winning games they didn’t deserve to win and often drawing after being under the cosh all match. See their previous two games against us this season for proof.

Call then jammy, call the goals they score flukes but they do have this knack of winning when all the signs are they are going to lose. Usually in big games, and this was our big game yesterday afternoon.

Just two examples I recall. FACup Final 1977 and CL Final 1999.

Here’s part of the report from the ‘77 final. Thanks to LFCHistory.net

Although Liverpol set off in character, carefully preparing their ground, they expanded into an attacking style far earlier than was expected. Manchester United began by looking better than at any time in their defeat by Southampton a year before but, surprisingly, it was doing what came unnaturally, defending, that formed a foundation for victory. Near the end of a first half of quite sufficient interest the feeling was that United were ill-equipped for the second when Liverpool could hardly fail to take the chances they were making. United had conceded midfield and were magnificently saved from a slaughter by the composure of Brian Greenhoff, Buchan and Albiston, the young replacement for Houston.

Five minutes after half time they scored after a Greenhoff back header fell to Pearson, we equalised through Case a minute later, only for a Macari shot to hit Greenhoff’s back and loop beyond Clemence three minutes later.
They had a five minute purple patch scoring two goals to our one with the winner the flukiest you’ll see.

We then missed more chances and our dreams of a treble were ruined in those five minutes as we did win our first European Cup four days later. The Guardian no less reported that Liverpool shaped the game to their satisfaction but two mistakes cost them and it slipped from their grasp.

The CL Final in ‘99 was an even more one sided affair. Bayern Munich could only score once despite many chances.
They were beaten 2-1 after Man Utd scored from two left wing corners in the three minutes of injury time. I’m sure others remember similar games.

We don’t play them again so it’s now in our court to win every game and see where it brings us.Key players coming back so we have every chance especially if we play as if it’s the last 15 minutes of the game from the start.

[decosabute]

We’re the highest goalscorers in Europes top five leagues - check.

We’re the second highest goal scorers in the league - check.

Our xG 70.8 and we’ve scored 72 - check

So we’re overperforming in front of goal and don’t need loads of chances - check.

The attack is the teams weakness and needs addressing in the summer - wrong

I don't at all think the attack is the team's weakness in general. Merely think it's mad to talk about yesterday being down to luck. It wasn't bad luck, just bad play.

It isn't the norm though, as infuriating as it was - this team and this attack have still got us as many points as anyone else. Just need this to be the sole blip of the run-in if we're going to have any chance at the league.

[Bjornar]

It isn't the norm though, as infuriating as it was - this team and this attack have still got us as many points as anyone else. Just need this to be the sole blip of the run-in if we're going to have any chance at the league.

What is perhaps becoming a bit of a norm, is that this team play their best football and score their goals when the games are on a knife's edge results-wise, and almost seems to find a way to self-sabotage when games become too comfortable. Which I have no explanation for, it's not as if I think they don't have a professional attitude or aren't brilliantly coached or anything. But look at all those early unnecessary goals we have let in this season, and how many late goals we have needed. The Sheffield United game is one of the most one sided PL games I have seen, and we somehow managed to turn even that into a game that needed a dramatic late winner. Seems to me like a pattern.

[andy07]

What I would give for a boring 9-0 against Palace with only 20 shots on goal.   We have done it before.

[kop306]

watched the game again tonight

still cant believe how we managed to miss so many chances

[mightymoose1972]

watched the game again tonight

Did we win?

[kop306]

Did we win?

sadly not , but watching the game again you can sense a lack of conviction from the players on what to do in certain situations

did the players get nervous or the bad memories of the fa cup game affect them

will be interesting to see how we play against everton away as that is our next big match

[killer-heels]

sadly not , but watching the game again you can sense a lack of conviction from the players on what to do in certain situations

did the players get nervous or the bad memories of the fa cup game affect them

will be interesting to see how we play against everton away as that is our next big match

Its will be a tough game. We have only won twice with Klopp at Goodison.

[Red_Mist]

watched the game again tonight

Under your own free will?

[B0151?]

Nope we weren't unlucky, just indecisive!

I don't think anyone would say that we couldn't have done better in goal. Just that it was more bad luck that our players had a pretty bad day in front of goal than us being shite at finishing. We've had worse games and been more clinical.

We smashed 7 in against them last season when we were a worse team (6 of them from current forwards) so don't really buy that it's a mental thing either. It's true we don't have the best record in big games this season - but we haven't dominated them as much as we have in the United ones.

[Heritage]

With the full of respect, mate... Maguire fouled BOTH of Salah and Diaz in front of Anthony Taylor.

Like literally really in front of Anthony, fucking, Taylor...

And yes, ZERO foul decided for those actions.

I was screaming when Maguire did that.

If someone thinks that I am lying, you could just check back the replay.

Yeah it was a foul. Camera was right on them when it happened too.

[spider-neil]

watched the game again tonight

still cant believe how we managed to miss so many chances

I think the worst miss is Nunez. He has to pull the ball back for Diaz.

[spider-neil]

I don't think anyone would say that we couldn't have done better in goal. Just that it was more bad luck that our players had a pretty bad day in front of goal than us being shite at finishing. We've had worse games and been more clinical.

We smashed 7 in against them last season when we were a worse team (6 of them from current forwards) so don't really buy that it's a mental thing either. It's true we don't have the best record in big games this season - but we haven't dominated them as much as we have in the United ones.

The 7-0 was at Anfield. In the 0-0 at Anfield, Manu had no interest in the ball making it much harder to break them down.
The 5-0 at OT was the first win there in nearly 10 years. I definitely think there is a mental block at OT. That said, I think if we get a second goal their heads go completely.

[Kenrick_66]

The 7-0 was at Anfield. In the 0-0 at Anfield, Manu had no interest in the ball making it much harder to break them down.
The 5-0 at OT was the first win there in nearly 10 years. I definitely think there is a mental block at OT. That said, I think if we get a second goal their heads go completely.

We beat them 4-2 at OT only a few months before the 5-0. No crowd though to be fair.

[Draex]

I don't think anyone would say that we couldn't have done better in goal. Just that it was more bad luck that our players had a pretty bad day in front of goal than us being shite at finishing. We've had worse games and been more clinical.

We smashed 7 in against them last season when we were a worse team (6 of them from current forwards) so don't really buy that it's a mental thing either. It's true we don't have the best record in big games this season - but we haven't dominated them as much as we have in the United ones.

It’s the second goal, we get that as spider Neil says and they crumble, they already had the rat moping around in midfield. That’s where we need to improve, we need to up the intensity and focus and get the second.

[Caps4444]

If Kelleher had got a hand to the Fernandez shot and got sent off, would we have taken that rather than being scored against?
So still 1 up with 50 mins to go but down to 10 men?

[spider-neil]

We beat them 4-2 at OT only a few months before the 5-0. No crowd though to be fair.

I purposely omitted that result for that very reason.

[spider-neil]

If Kelleher had got a hand to the Fernandez shot and got sent off, would we have taken that rather than being scored against?
So still 1 up with 50 mins to go but down to 10 men?

No, as we'd have Adrian in goal for Palace.

[MonsLibpool]

If Kelleher had got a hand to the Fernandez shot and got sent off, would we have taken that rather than being scored against?
So still 1 up with 50 mins to go but down to 10 men?

We'd probably have lost because of the momentum swing and the numerical disadvantage.  It's hard to play there when they believe they can get something.

[Nick110581]

Attackers just need to slow down.

Not rush everything.

We have been clinical away at Brentford away, Bournemouth away and Luton at home this year.

[killer-heels]

If Kelleher had got a hand to the Fernandez shot and got sent off, would we have taken that rather than being scored against?
So still 1 up with 50 mins to go but down to 10 men?

Yep I would have taken it. I think we see it out.

[Jean Girard]

Yep I would have taken it. I think we see it out.

And the subsequent 2-3 games of Adrian in goal?


(Much as he seems like a nice lad)

[thaddeus]

Attackers just need to slow down.

Not rush everything.

We have been clinical away at Brentford away, Bournemouth away and Luton at home this year.

We definitely weren't clinical in that one!  Diaz alone could have had a first half hat-trick but it took Virgil scoring from a corner close on the hour mark to swing the momentum back to us.  We ran through them in the end.

We're not a team with instinctive goal-scorers so games like the Man U game will happen from time to time.  The trade-off is that we have incredibly hard working forwards that contribute massively to the build-up and also when we don't have the ball.

Man U are almost our polar opposite in that they have a lot of players that don't really add to the team dynamic but have moments of really high quality in them.  It's why they pinch so many seemingly undeserved points.

[JackWard33]

Missing sitter after sitter, blowing 5 on 2 counter attacks, making awful decisions in the final third is NOT UNLUCKY. Fuck the idea of statistical variance. We didn’t blow that game because of luck. We got what we deserved for not smashing a team that was begging for it.

I understand this is how any would view that game, its how I viewed it while it was happening.
But a non Liverpool analyst wouldn't view it that way - they would say its bad luck (except they'd use the word variance) and if you run that game 1000 times we'd win 900 of them or whatever - as we have been this season which is why we're near the top.
It sucks it was that game.. it's pretty similar to the last CL final to be honest .. these games happen you just don't want them to be significant games

At the core of this is that players don't control which chances they take and which they don't.. or at least only at the margin... and that idea is so antithetical to how a fan views a game it'll always create a totally different perspective
If we had only poor finishers (by premier league standards) but put up 3.6 - 0.7 in xg every game as we did on Sunday we'd win the league at a canter

By the way "fuck the idea of statistical variance" gave me a giggle so thanks for that... yes fucking that off would be great - any ideas how?

[GreatEx]

So you're saying that players only score when they've decided to score.

Yeah, makes sense.

No, I'm not.

[spider-neil]

And the subsequent 2-3 games of Adrian in goal?


(Much as he seems like a nice lad)

1 game. 3 games is violent conduct.

[spider-neil]

Wasn't there a mad game in the 90s where they went 3-0 up and we pulled them back with a Ruddock equaliser?

[Crosby Nick]

And the subsequent 2-3 games of Adrian in goal?


(Much as he seems like a nice lad)

Think it would be one game for a handling outside the box foul rather than anything violent.

[duvva 💅]

Wasn't there a mad game in the 90s where they went 3-0 up and we pulled them back with a Ruddock equaliser?

Clough scored 2 as well Was a classic comeback.

[Mister Flip Flop]

If Kelleher had got a hand to the Fernandez shot and got sent off, would we have taken that rather than being scored against?
So still 1 up with 50 mins to go but down to 10 men?

Really good post that and something i hadn't even considered. The thoughts of Adrian in goal for the next game gives me chills and it's highly possible we could have lost the game with 10 men.