Title Challengers Past Run-ins:
(2019-2023)
Arsenal - 14* , 16 , 20 , 15 , 15 - Avg. 16 (* Different manager)
Liverpool - 28 , 20 , 26 , 26 , 24 - Avg. 24.8
Man City - 30 , 24 , 21 , 24 , 25 - Avg. 24.8
Arsenal have yet to prove they can manage a run-in. Their best last 10 games have amassed just 20 points and in none of their last 5 seasons would they have won the league from this point. Two would have gone to Liverpool, two to City and one down to goal difference between Liverpool and City. Last season, Arsenal had 5 more points at this stage than they do currently and ended with just 84 points with only 15 points in their last 10 games.
Taking their worst points totals, the minimum you’d expect any team to get is:
Arsenal - 79 (ignoring the 14 under Emery)
Liverpool - 84
City - 84
Taking their best points totals, the maximum you’d expect any team to get is:
Arsenal - 84
Liverpool- 92
City - 93
If we take the averages:
Arsenal - 80
Liverpool - 88.8
City - 87.8
Out of the last 5 seasons we’d go onto break 90 points three times, City only once and Arsenal none, in fact Arsenal would only get above 80 points once.
So, Arsenal have to out perform their best run-in of the last 5, which of course they could do, but they simultaneously have to hope Liverpool and City only at best match their worst run-in from the last 5.
The point is, us and City are experienced at this now, we have the muscle memory (except for the new signings). Couple that with the tricky champions league draws for the other two and I’d suggest the chances of Arsenal winning the league are low, whilst we are in a very good position.
