Author Topic: UAPs over America: real or balloons??  (Read 84295 times)

Offline lionel_messias

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UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« on: March 23, 2023, 11:28:07 am »
Putting this up without a tin-foil hat on.

Since the New York Times reported a $22 million budget (peanuts) was secured for UAP (UFOs) study by the late Congressman, Harry Reid, then I guess we can call this a news story. The Times published a major and now famous article on this in 2017. It proved that the Pentagon and US military were actively looking into this issue.

Yet for 70+ years, this has been a joke and money-maker for Hollywood.

Further US intelligence reports have been made public since 2021, stating UAP are real, and many incidents reported by trained and serious observers are not explained or explainable.

Here's a Politico article: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/28/ufo-uap-navy-intelligence-00084537


So many many jokes are possible and the world has very serious problems elsewhere but what gives?


Two US folk who are very very credible are looking into UAP:


Prof Avi Loeb, who is head of Astronomy at Harvard (see: Galileo program)


Ryan Graves, a former F18 Fighter pilot who has seen a lot and has formed an Aviation sub-committee to bring experts to study this.


If you want to listen to a really fascinating podcast, Ryan Graves interviews either pilots, aviators or scientists on the topic with his Merged podcast. He is not a believer of anything, there are no crazies or attention seekers, so the tone is of an investigation into an aviation safety issue. It's pretty wild when you listen to it.


Maybe, the silly season on this could be over soon...




*this thread may well die on its arse or never be a thing but The White House thought it was a thing when they hastily assembled a team to look at this.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 11:54:11 am by lionel_messias »
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Offline Red-Soldier

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2023, 12:00:56 pm »

Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2023, 12:05:57 pm »
 ;D  Expected.


There is some data out there, probably.
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Offline "21C or 70F?" SchizoidWeatherMan!

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2023, 12:33:21 pm »
The most convincing evidence is from the USS Nimitz case imo.

Multiple sightings by multiple people, including Air Force pilots.  The 'physics' of the movement of the UAPs defied any currently known propulsion technology.

No rational explanation apart from speculative and far fetched ones like parallax and instrument malfunction.

Ya better believe...
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Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2023, 12:47:21 pm »
The most convincing evidence is from the USS Nimitz case imo.

Multiple sightings by multiple people, including Air Force pilots.  The 'physics' of the movement of the UAPs defied any currently known propulsion technology.

No rational explanation apart from speculative and far fetched ones like parallax and instrument malfunction.

Ya better believe...

Yes, that was a really convincing case, as you say there were many witnesses, all trained and sober Navy folk.

There have been many other cases, and I would imagine the Navy and Airforce must have better footage and instrument that have recorded these objects.

Aside from conspiracy, one plausible explanation for intelligence services not saying more is the fact that during the Cold War, US did not want to reveal the sensitivity of their surveillance instruments. A situation that still stands.

Ryan Graves and his whole Hornet F18 group had a whole load of near misses in 2014/15. This has activated him, in a big way, on this topic.
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Offline "21C or 70F?" SchizoidWeatherMan!

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2023, 12:57:36 pm »
Yes, that was a really convincing case, as you say there were many witnesses, all trained and sober Navy folk.

There have been many other cases, and I would imagine the Navy and Airforce must have better footage and instrument that have recorded these objects.

Aside from conspiracy, one plausible explanation for intelligence services not saying more is the fact that during the Cold War, US did not want to reveal the sensitivity of their surveillance instruments. A situation that still stands.

Ryan Graves and his whole Hornet F18 group had a whole load of near misses in 2014/15. This has activated him, in a big way, on this topic.

Absolutely.

They released bits of official footage from it as well!  Their usual modus operandi is denial, but this was not the case for the USS Nimitz incident and that says a lot.

Either someone has developed secret tech 50-100 years ahead of our time or there is something going on that we have no idea about!

Phuk yoo

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2023, 01:13:41 pm »
If aliens are out there and the Universe is 13.7 billion years old** then it's fair to say that there would be species around *somewhere* that evolved millions or hundreds of millions of years before us and equally likely that the opposite will be true in the millenia to come.

If we were visited then you can see a lot of reasons why it would be hushed up - it would entirely change the way that humanity viewed itself in the universe.

You'd think though that will all the major optical and computer progressions made, with the people with serious money in the game that if something real had been spotted*** then you'd be able to get better evidence than the blurry half arsed photos that you tend to see.

** been reading some stuff suggesting it's potentially way older than that and we don't really understand what is around us

*** You do see some amazing looking 'evidence' that just looks like CGI


Do any of us know? Will any of us ever know? Maybe, but I wouldn't worry about it. If it happens, it happens. Today a 'time traveller' from the 'future' reckons that there will be a mass invasion of the Earthy today by aliens and 8,000 people will be abducted.

I reckon I'll be on here tomorrow saying that was bollocks as well. Clock is ticking :0
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 01:15:31 pm by Andy @ Allerton! »
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2023, 01:14:46 pm »
Meh.

If aliens - great.
Death of monotheistic religions and hope for the future.

If humans - great.
We're getting somewhere, may mean war but we live with the threat of desctuction anyway.

If humans by alien design - great.
Same as above.

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2023, 01:16:28 pm »
Meh.

If aliens - great.
Death of monotheistic religions and hope for the future.

If humans - great.
We're getting somewhere, may mean war but we live with the threat of desctuction anyway.

If humans by alien design - great.
Same as above.

How about aliens created by humans?
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They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2023, 01:29:25 pm »
Lads, I think we are deviating from the topic somewhat.

This is about mounting evidence of UAPs, not philosophical discussions about the existence of Aliens! ;D
Phuk yoo

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2023, 01:36:29 pm »
Lads, I think we are deviating from the topic somewhat.

This is about mounting evidence of UAPs, not philosophical discussions about the existence of Aliens! ;D

Unidentified Angry Possums?
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2023, 01:41:41 pm »
Unidentified Angry Possums?

Underwhelming Andy Post.

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2023, 01:50:56 pm »
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2023, 01:55:29 pm »
Absolutely.

They released bits of official footage from it as well!  Their usual modus operandi is denial, but this was not the case for the USS Nimitz incident and that says a lot.

Either someone has developed secret tech 50-100 years ahead of our time or there is something going on that we have no idea about!



Yeah, I mean it is probably best to focus on the evidence only. After one of the US government reports, I think it was in 2021, when they stated "Yes, this is real and we're investigating it" Professor Avi Loeb announced the Galileo project. This is a funded project, led by scientists that will look at the physical nature of UAP around the globe and they are also looking for 'artifacts' in deep space as well. What they are doing: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo/activities

The guys and gals are serious, and what separates them from most of the UFO researcher community and commentators are these rules:

Project ground rules
  • We do not work with classified information or unreliable past data.
  • Our analysis of the data is based on known physics.
  • Our data and analysis will be freely published, documented and archived.
  • No results will be released except through scientifically-accepted channels of publication.
So let's see what they find. We're gonna guess there IS some interesting data that will be classified information.


Wonder if the two sets of data ever meet.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 01:58:37 pm by lionel_messias »
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Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2023, 01:57:54 pm »
Meh.

If aliens - great.
Death of monotheistic religions and hope for the future.

If humans - great.
We're getting somewhere, may mean war but we live with the threat of desctuction anyway.

If humans by alien design - great.
Same as above.

One piece of evidence, if it could be corroborated and proven as not Terrestrial and all of sudden the differences between China and America, America and Russia, Russia and Ukraine look irrelevent and rather pointless.

It would have to be the biggest news story, quite simply ever.
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2023, 02:04:45 pm »
Underwhelming Andy Post.

They're my speciality!
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2023, 03:25:45 pm »
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2023, 03:45:27 pm »
I think it's good some Ai is now on the case and detected several possible signals to be investigated. But the thing about the UAP (to me at least) is that it's completely possible for the general public to "solve" this. You constantly hear how "they" are covering it up, you can't cover up something like this, if they are coming here/arriving here, breaking through here etc then they're going to be anywhere, not just military locations.

Someone with a lot of money need to make a concerted effort to find out themselves and I don't mean dickheads like Frugal, Bigelow (con man if ever there was one) and a few others who makes claims to get grants or keep selling books

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2023, 03:49:03 pm »
Professor Loeb was on Joe Rogan a couple of years ago.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/G5gJBZ-3OlY&amp;t=1s" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/G5gJBZ-3OlY&amp;t=1s</a>
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Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2023, 05:21:48 pm »
I think it's good some Ai is now on the case and detected several possible signals to be investigated. But the thing about the UAP (to me at least) is that it's completely possible for the general public to "solve" this. You constantly hear how "they" are covering it up, you can't cover up something like this, if they are coming here/arriving here, breaking through here etc then they're going to be anywhere, not just military locations.

Someone with a lot of money need to make a concerted effort to find out themselves and I don't mean dickheads like Frugal, Bigelow (con man if ever there was one) and a few others who makes claims to get grants or keep selling books

I haven't really looked into Robert Bigelow, I do know he was brought in by Harry Reid to get that contract which was referenced in the New York Times article in 2017. He's very rich, that's for sure.

The story was he prepared all these spaces and hangars and was expecting to get access to "crash retrieved materials" essentially UFOs, and the other government groups gave him sod all :)

They did create a massive database of UFO cases though, think it was called AWSAP.

The general public might be able to help but we've never seen one decent video of any good resolution, even the majority of the planet now owning advanced iPhones or Android devices...
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2023, 05:54:21 pm »
Funny how it's almost always coming from the US

US Military Intelligence: 'guys, Russia is about to invade Ukraine'
Some people: 'yeah sure lol, never trust the US - did you know they Iraq and CIA? only sheep believe them'

US Military Intelligence: 'we are gonna spend a quarter of Tesco's annual advertising budget looking into UAPs'
Those same people: 'whoa, makes you think - plus, there's eyewitness accounts from the US military which makes it more trustworthy'

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2023, 05:58:42 pm »
They're probably going to return Glen Miller.

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2023, 07:12:00 pm »
They're probably going to return Glen Miller.

Only if they're in the mood...
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2023, 07:22:05 pm »
Only if they're in the mood...

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2023, 08:23:49 pm »
Professor Loeb was on Joe Rogan a couple of years ago.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/G5gJBZ-3OlY&amp;t=1s" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/G5gJBZ-3OlY&amp;t=1s</a>

Oh dear - he did the Galileo thing.

The object that turned Loeb from a respected scientist into a guest on the Joe Rogan Show was Oumuamua. The object showed unusual accelleration as it moved out of the Solar System and Loeb seems to have become obsessed by it.

Ironically, a paper has just been published explaining the strange movement. While Loeb was doing the rounds of talk shows speculating about Oumuamua being an alien probe, other scientists were doing the hard yards and solvinvg the mystery.

Scientists Solve the Mystery Behind the Oumuamua 'Alien Spacecraft' Comet

By Jeffrey Kluger
March 22, 2023 2:15 PM EDT

...Oumuamua, like most comets, is rich in water. Before the comet entered the solar system, the extreme cold of deep space would cause the water to freeze into ice in what is known as an amorphous state. Rather than the solid, crystalline structure of ordinary ice, amorphous ice is porous, dotted by pockets. Exposure to deep space would have a second effect on the ice too—with cosmic radiation causing some of the H2 in the H2O molecules to break away. That H2 would collect in the pores of the amorphous ice, like fuel in tiny fuel tanks. When Oumuamua entered the inner solar system, it warmed up just enough for the ice to convert to its crystalline state, essentially closing the pockets and forcing the H2 out of the comet, providing the propulsive push that explained the acceleration.

“When the water matrix has enough energy, it rearranges to a more stable and more compact configuration,” says Bergner. “In the process, you lose those pores and the hydrogen can escape through the surface.”

So question answered, problem solved and, alas, no alien spacecraft in the mix. Bergner, Seligman, and other astronomers will be looking for similar small and dark comets when the National Science Foundation’s Vera C. Rubin Observatory goes into operation in Chile’s Atacama desert in 2025, with a specific charge to spend part of its observation time looking for hydrogen outgassing from comets. Before 2017, astronomers did not even know that a species of comet like Oumuamua existed. Now, thanks to the Rubin Observatory and the astronomers who will make use of it, we’ll learn more about their behavior, composition, population, and more.

“The main takeaway is that Oumuamua is consistent with being a standard interstellar comet that experienced heavy processing [in space],” said Bergner in a statement that accompanied the release of the paper. If one Oumuamua exists, many more should be found.

https://time.com/6265071/oumuamua-spacecraft-comet-mystery/

Another irony is that Loeb quotes Sherlock Holmes. Holmes is a great fictional detective but his creator Conan Doyle was taken in by "The Cottingley Fairies." They were the creation of two girls from Yorkshire and the images they created were laughable.



This is one of the pictures that Conan Doyle was convinced was real. It's an example of starting from a conclusion (Conan Doyle was a spritualist) and a) looking for evidence to support it and b) accepting any 'evidence' uncritically and refusing alternative explanations. It's about as convincing evidence of fairies as any evidence I've seen alien visitation.

The US Government changed the acronym from UFO to UAP because they wanted to remove the assumption that reports and observations of things in the sky referred to 'objects' and downgraded the definition to 'phenomena'.

That of course made no difference to the believers who still get excited by vague UAP blurs in the sky the same way they did with UFO blurs.

Has a new shaky video or blurry smudge been released?

The alternative view

Mick West is a debunker of UFO sightings and provides coherent observations and analysis of sightings. He has written abouit conspiracy theories and the great UFO cover up is one of the most common conspiracy theories.

https://bigthink.com/the-present/conspiracy-theories-2653392476/

There's nothing wrong with speculating about alien life and interstellar space travel. I'm a massive Science Fiction fan but for me it's about thought experiments or allegory. A great example is 'Roadside Picnic' by the Strugatsky brothers that imagines the aftermath of an alien visitation. The aliens don't waste any time studying or contacting humans who are just another creature on the planet - they just stop off for a bit then move on, leaving behind the equivalent of the rubbish from a roadside picnic (hence the title). It's a far more interesting idea than the human-centric (or US-centric) bollocks that most UFO/UAP fanatics are into.

The reality is that interstellar travel, let alone intergalactic travel, is easy on Star Trek but a massive tecnological and logistical problem in reality.

Then there's the immense timescale of the Universe. Even assuming the problem of intergalactic travel could be solved, what are the chances of another homonid, technological civilisation developing space travel in the same tight time-window that humanity has become technologically active? The first human powered flight was in 1903 - 120 years ago. Marconi established the first radio company in 1897. Transistors - 1947. The only trips to another non-Earth body 1969 - 1972 (total 18 people). But amazingly, the first big 'UFO' story (Roswell) coincides with the great leaps forward in human technology in the aftermath of WW2.

Hand-waving explanations of 'tic-tacs' and 'gimbals' that rely on 'advanced' alien technology are basically just belief in magic and fairies.

In case anyone's wondering, I don't think we are being, or have ever been visited by aliens.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 08:27:58 pm by Alan_X »
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Offline A Red Abroad

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2023, 08:47:03 pm »


In case anyone's wondering, I don't think we are being, or have ever been visited by aliens.

No, it's humans, from the future, using time-machines to come back and visit.  ;D

The reason there was so many sightings in the 50s was because they all wanted to see young Elvis. :)
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 08:50:59 pm by A Red Abroad »
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2023, 09:04:40 pm »
Did they not want to see The Beatles, or do they only get US networks up there?

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2023, 10:50:38 pm »
Oh dear - he did the Galileo thing.

The object that turned Loeb from a respected scientist into a guest on the Joe Rogan Show was Oumuamua. The object showed unusual accelleration as it moved out of the Solar System and Loeb seems to have become obsessed by it.

Ironically, a paper has just been published explaining the strange movement. While Loeb was doing the rounds of talk shows speculating about Oumuamua being an alien probe, other scientists were doing the hard yards and solvinvg the mystery.

Scientists Solve the Mystery Behind the Oumuamua 'Alien Spacecraft' Comet

By Jeffrey Kluger
March 22, 2023 2:15 PM EDT

...Oumuamua, like most comets, is rich in water. Before the comet entered the solar system, the extreme cold of deep space would cause the water to freeze into ice in what is known as an amorphous state. Rather than the solid, crystalline structure of ordinary ice, amorphous ice is porous, dotted by pockets. Exposure to deep space would have a second effect on the ice too—with cosmic radiation causing some of the H2 in the H2O molecules to break away. That H2 would collect in the pores of the amorphous ice, like fuel in tiny fuel tanks. When Oumuamua entered the inner solar system, it warmed up just enough for the ice to convert to its crystalline state, essentially closing the pockets and forcing the H2 out of the comet, providing the propulsive push that explained the acceleration.

“When the water matrix has enough energy, it rearranges to a more stable and more compact configuration,” says Bergner. “In the process, you lose those pores and the hydrogen can escape through the surface.”

So question answered, problem solved and, alas, no alien spacecraft in the mix. Bergner, Seligman, and other astronomers will be looking for similar small and dark comets when the National Science Foundation’s Vera C. Rubin Observatory goes into operation in Chile’s Atacama desert in 2025, with a specific charge to spend part of its observation time looking for hydrogen outgassing from comets. Before 2017, astronomers did not even know that a species of comet like Oumuamua existed. Now, thanks to the Rubin Observatory and the astronomers who will make use of it, we’ll learn more about their behavior, composition, population, and more.

“The main takeaway is that Oumuamua is consistent with being a standard interstellar comet that experienced heavy processing [in space],” said Bergner in a statement that accompanied the release of the paper. If one Oumuamua exists, many more should be found.

https://time.com/6265071/oumuamua-spacecraft-comet-mystery/

Another irony is that Loeb quotes Sherlock Holmes. Holmes is a great fictional detective but his creator Conan Doyle was taken in by "The Cottingley Fairies." They were the creation of two girls from Yorkshire and the images they created were laughable.



This is one of the pictures that Conan Doyle was convinced was real. It's an example of starting from a conclusion (Conan Doyle was a spritualist) and a) looking for evidence to support it and b) accepting any 'evidence' uncritically and refusing alternative explanations. It's about as convincing evidence of fairies as any evidence I've seen alien visitation.

The US Government changed the acronym from UFO to UAP because they wanted to remove the assumption that reports and observations of things in the sky referred to 'objects' and downgraded the definition to 'phenomena'.

That of course made no difference to the believers who still get excited by vague UAP blurs in the sky the same way they did with UFO blurs.

Has a new shaky video or blurry smudge been released?

The alternative view

Mick West is a debunker of UFO sightings and provides coherent observations and analysis of sightings. He has written abouit conspiracy theories and the great UFO cover up is one of the most common conspiracy theories.

https://bigthink.com/the-present/conspiracy-theories-2653392476/

There's nothing wrong with speculating about alien life and interstellar space travel. I'm a massive Science Fiction fan but for me it's about thought experiments or allegory. A great example is 'Roadside Picnic' by the Strugatsky brothers that imagines the aftermath of an alien visitation. The aliens don't waste any time studying or contacting humans who are just another creature on the planet - they just stop off for a bit then move on, leaving behind the equivalent of the rubbish from a roadside picnic (hence the title). It's a far more interesting idea than the human-centric (or US-centric) bollocks that most UFO/UAP fanatics are into.

The reality is that interstellar travel, let alone intergalactic travel, is easy on Star Trek but a massive tecnological and logistical problem in reality.

Then there's the immense timescale of the Universe. Even assuming the problem of intergalactic travel could be solved, what are the chances of another homonid, technological civilisation developing space travel in the same tight time-window that humanity has become technologically active? The first human powered flight was in 1903 - 120 years ago. Marconi established the first radio company in 1897. Transistors - 1947. The only trips to another non-Earth body 1969 - 1972 (total 18 people). But amazingly, the first big 'UFO' story (Roswell) coincides with the great leaps forward in human technology in the aftermath of WW2.

Hand-waving explanations of 'tic-tacs' and 'gimbals' that rely on 'advanced' alien technology are basically just belief in magic and fairies.

In case anyone's wondering, I don't think we are being, or have ever been visited by aliens.

It's interesting and quite cool you have responded in this way. That's kind of the heart of this, isn't it: it is necessary to put forward evidence and then of course it is not conclusive
and you have the other side of the argument.

UAP/UFO proponents will always be guilty until one day maybe they will be proven otherwise!

I've read Prof Avi Loeb's book, just finished it actually. I think it fair to say he uses Oumuamua as a big example of his wider thesis: that extra-terrestrial civilisations may actually have come and gone completely. They may have been more advanced than us but wiped out themselves and we could be looking for remnants in the Universe, like archaeologists.

Actually, he has debunked the debunkers this morning too, in a new paper with the headline, 'Oumuamua was not a hydrogen water Iceberg'. I'm way not an expert in comets but it has to do with temperature calculations and evaporating hydrogen. Lolz.

In any case, the story of that object was inconclusive. I would not say Loeb is a fantasist at all. In fact, the Galileo project he heads up will not even consider witness testimony at all, nor deal in any physics that seems to contradict known science of this time. Everything will have to be recorded and available for peer review, to be published in mainstream journals.

If Loeb's team view and analyse a real one of these things, perhaps the data will be of a different level to anything yet published.

And the other fella you cite?

Well yes, there are lots of debunkers. But the DoD in America recently came out and stated, of 144 cases they studied, 143 were unexplained. If you listen to the Merged podcast that Ryan Graves runs, the people he speaks to ARE NOT INTERESTED IN UFO's, they are serious life-long aviators, some Navy, some civilian. They describe what they have seen. In some cases flying for 25 years, they know what they are talking about when things occur in the sky; and what they describe is often unknown and inexplicable. The height of these things, the apparent propulsion, lack of trails and sudden changes of direction at such speeds that would crush a human to spaghetti from the G-force.

However, we need someone to provide high res images and multiple sensors, plus actual readings of velocity and movement, to prove just one object could not possibly me made here.

I would not even use the "A" word but there is so much data to be looked at. In my mind, the total debunkers would have a full-time job that must be impossible to prove everything recorded in the last 75 years is bogus. If true, it would be the weirdest case of multigenerational delusion ever.

And Joe Biden looks like a 1960s G-man to me. Wonder if he will be the GUY, over 80, who finally drops the BIG NEWS on camera (only for folk to say he is senile obviously)...



 
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 10:55:35 pm by lionel_messias »
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Offline A Red Abroad

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #28 on: March 23, 2023, 11:33:53 pm »
Did they not want to see The Beatles, or do they only get US networks up there?

Ah! That would have been the UFO sighting near the Hollywood Bowl on 23rd August 1964.

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #29 on: March 24, 2023, 12:07:32 am »
I've read Prof Avi Loeb's book, just finished it actually. I think it fair to say he uses Oumuamua as a big example of his wider thesis: that extra-terrestrial civilisations may actually have come and gone completely. They may have been more advanced than us but wiped out themselves and we could be looking for remnants in the Universe, like archaeologists.

Actually, he has debunked the debunkers this morning too, in a new paper with the headline, 'Oumuamua was not a hydrogen water Iceberg'. I'm way not an expert in comets but it has to do with temperature calculations and evaporating hydrogen. Lolz.

In any case, the story of that object was inconclusive. I would not say Loeb is a fantasist at all. In fact, the Galileo project he heads up will not even consider witness testimony at all, nor deal in any physics that seems to contradict known science of this time. Everything will have to be recorded and available for peer review, to be published in mainstream journals.

If Loeb's team view and analyse a real one of these things, perhaps the data will be of a different level to anything yet published.

Good article on Loeb here with an interesting extract below.
https://www.science.org/content/article/why-is-harvard-astrophysicist-working-with-ufo-buffs
Quote
"Loeb’s theory that ‘Oumuamua was some kind of technological debris from an otherworldly civilization drew worldwide attention [if we're doing LOLZ this is probably where I'd insert mine ;)]. He became an eager spokesperson, appearing not just in mainstream media outlets, but also UFO podcasts and conferences. But most of Loeb’s colleagues rejected his hypothesis, which he first laid out in a 2018 paper published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Others mocked it or dismissed it as a publicity stunt. “What’s really irritating is that Avi is a smart guy,” says Karen Meech, a planetary astronomer at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. “He is a good scientist. But he is out for fame here.” The snubs gnawed at Loeb.

His anger boiled over early last year at an online forum called the Golden Webinar in Astrophysics, where he portrayed himself as the victim of a “close-minded” scientific community unwilling to entertain bold hypotheses. “If we listen to my colleagues we would just forget about [‘Oumuamua],” he said. “We would not put any funds for cameras taking photographs of it. Then we will maintain our ignorance, just like the philosophers in Galileo’s age.”

It was peculiar reasoning, not least because workers at the time were putting the finishing touches on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, an 8-meter behemoth taking shape in Chile—and designed specifically to look for transient phenomena like ‘Oumuamua when it opens sometime next year. And in 2019, the European Space Agency approved Comet Interceptor, a mission that after launch in 2029 will park itself beyond Earth’s orbit in a position to chase down and inspect fast moving comets—or even interstellar objects.

One pioneering SETI researcher at the forum could not abide Loeb’s comments. “Some of us have been thinking about and building instruments to find anomalies for a very long time,” Jill Tarter reminded Loeb during one testy exchange at the forum. (Tarter was the inspiration for the astronomer played by Jodi Foster in the 1997 movie Contact.) Tarter said it was important not to make any conjectural leaps about aliens unless there was “extraordinary evidence.” This, she added, was the only way of “differentiating ourselves from the pseudoscience that is so much a part of popular culture with UFOs."

As a scientist, I always think it's a pretty major red flag when you see someone use their perception as being an authority figure to start to chase headlines. I didn't know anything about this guy, but just as I was thinking he sounded like your standard run of the mill grifter chasing money at the tail end of a career (especially when you factor in the faux grievance of acting hard done by 'inspiring' the Gallilleo name), I saw this criticism from Seth Shostak at the SETI Institute, which was established in the 80s. He suggested SETI was the equivalent of "studying unknown fauna in the rainforest" and Galileo project more like "hoping to find mermaids or unicorns", while Caleb Scharf in that article also warns of the risk of Loeb's project having "intermingled legitimate scientists with what he assessed to be 'fringe' people" and how that can negatively affect the perception of actual scientists and their studies.

To me Loeb comes across as a grifter or zealot, or both. Think it's pretty telling that he's churned out two dozen papers in a couple of years on ‘Oumuamua with undergraduates as his co-authors, rather than respected senior peers, while also going the route of the monetised book deal to make unproven odd claims instead of testing those theories among his peers. Also think the fact his Gallilleo institute is on the beg, purely operating on donations [most of which came initially from a Harvard alumni tech guy], is demonstrative too of the quality of their science - whereas the SETI institute has been funded by hundreds of successful research grant applications.
Actually, he has debunked the debunkers this morning too, in a new paper with the headline, 'Oumuamua was not a hydrogen water Iceberg'. I'm way not an expert in comets but it has to do with temperature calculations and evaporating hydrogen. Lolz.
For what it's worth, I looked into this and he certainly hasn't debunked the Bergner/Seligman paper - in fact in his first couple of paragraphs (in an online commentary piece, rather than a peer reviewed piece of research), he agrees with the authors that the hydrogen iceberg hypothesis wasn't viable.

He then goes on to re-share his (pretty out there) 'solar sails' theory and refers to two 'published papers' he's written as weak references to support his claim. Neither of the two papers are peer-reviewed and neither has a co-author (if you've ever been involved in any scientific research, you know how dodgy this looks - no peers want to co-sign their name to what he's written (and no academic journal has accepted his paper for peer review and subsequent publication). Says at the bottom of his commentary article that he's got another book out in four months - figures he'd want to get on the publicity trail
« Last Edit: March 24, 2023, 12:11:26 am by classycarra »

Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #30 on: March 24, 2023, 06:47:07 am »
Cara, this is really interesting from your perspective.


I have no big dog in this debate but I did enjoy reading Loeb's book. What he suggested about the 'O rock' was provocative and it did raise some interesting ideas. Unfortunately, internet headline writers deal in "Mystery rock is alien / Mystery rock PROVEN not alien" etc. Clearly, there was insufficient data and that is that really, let the various astrophysicists debate about measurements and other theories, unless we had a close look at the thing we won't know.


Nothing wrong with him publishing books and explaining his ideas to lay people. Stephen Hawking did this as well.


I've looked at Avi Loeb's Harvard website as well and seen who his peers and backers are. You'd have to conclude he is extremely credible, to me anyway. However, working in this area of science you are never far away from charlatans and let's be very honest: with this subject matter there is an extremely high bar to overcome before people take discoveries seriously and an even higher one to ultimate proof. *I'm not suggesting Loeb has made any by the way.


The Galileo folk will point their instruments at 'interesting' objects near the planet (and further in space). And as you say, any evidence will have to be peer-reviewed by the top scientists before it gains any credence.


Between unproven science and in-fighting between groups, secretive intelligence and military folk, and frankly some bat-shit crazy people on Twitter; where does the truth lie?


My guess is the sheer maths suggests there must be other civilisations in the vastness of our galaxy and many others too. Some may have reached our technological level millions of years ago. Have any been to visit Earth? I'd nudge over to "yes" on that one, on the basis that is more likely than a huge mass psychosis having affected thousands of people, over 70 years or more who have seen things.


Show us the evidence though, and then test the F out of it!
« Last Edit: March 24, 2023, 09:31:16 am by lionel_messias »
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #31 on: March 24, 2023, 08:34:44 am »
So Aliens didn't invade yesterday and take over the world? Yay?
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Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #32 on: March 24, 2023, 10:30:46 am »
So Aliens didn't invade yesterday and take over the world? Yay?

They also missed the deadline for proposing a buyout of Man United as well.
Paul Pogba was meant to be central to their bid as well. Shame..
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Offline A Red Abroad

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #33 on: March 24, 2023, 11:11:31 am »

My guess is the sheer maths suggests there must be other civilisations in the vastness of our galaxy and many others too.

This would be my viewpoint too.




Some may have reached our technological level millions of years ago. Have any been to visit Earth? I'd nudge over to "yes" on that one, on the basis that is more likely than a huge mass psychosis having affected thousands of people, over 70 years or more who have seen things.


This, less so - although, like with everything, (except Internationalist football), I try to keep an open mind.

The Earth has a huge array of satellite dishes listening for 'sound signatures' from space/other planets - and they have been for many years. So far, not a dicky bird - it's not proof either way, of course. But if life forms were traveling through space (and close to our solar system) you'd think something would have been picked up.

My skepticism (if that's even the right word) comes from the thought that it's taken the best part of 4 billion years for life on earth to go from single cells to sentient beings (that's nearly a third of the life of the universe, give or take) - and we homo sapiens have only been here for the very, very, very last tiny bit of those 4 billion years.

So, if there is another planet (or planets) that has all the right conditions to provide for an unbroken chain of 'life' (from single cells onward) - it would have had to have got started (with 'life') a bit quicker than the Earth did for any life forms to be so technologically advanced to be able to travel the vast distances through space to 'come visit'.

Given that (forming) planets would need to cool and 'settle down' enough for life to form - and for an evolutionary chain to start, I think it's a fair guess that most of them would be at a similar stage to the Earth - give or take. Yes, I realise some planets may have started forming a bit earlier - but not prior to the 'big bang' - so not much earlier?

So, as much as I really like the idea of being visited by other (advanced) life forms. I remain doubtful - so far, anyway. :)

Show us the evidence though, and then test the F out of it!

Indeed. :)
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Offline lionel_messias

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #34 on: March 24, 2023, 11:48:01 am »
A Red Abroad,

Nice one. I'm not sure I have the words today to engage with that second part and I'm sure I have this wrong but...


The universe is 13.7 Billion years old I think. Or a normal frame of reference: the rough time we've been linked to Jude Bellingham in the press.

I believe the theory is there is plenty of variance possible as to when life has arisen in other places. In other words, it may not have followed the exact path we see here on Earth. And so other technological civilisations could easily pre-date us by millions of years, and others 1000s of years. Even 50,000 years might do a lot for their scientists, compared to ours.

Some may have been destroyed by accidents, supernovas or asteroids, and others may have destroyed themselves by nuclear (or similar) war.

Without taking mind-altering drugs, I think I'm saying we are both not the only ones in the playground, and very likely we're not the first either. Or not and I know square root of fuck all!

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Offline A Red Abroad

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #35 on: March 24, 2023, 12:04:27 pm »
A Red Abroad,

Nice one. I'm not sure I have the words today to engage with that second part and I'm sure I have this wrong but...


The universe is 13.7 Billion years old I think. Or a normal frame of reference: the rough time we've been linked to Jude Bellingham in the press.

I believe the theory is there is plenty of variance possible as to when life has arisen in other places. In other words, it may not have followed the exact path we see here on Earth. And so other technological civilisations could easily pre-date us by millions of years, and others 1000s of years. Even 50,000 years might do a lot for their scientists, compared to ours.

Some may have been destroyed by accidents, supernovas or asteroids, and others may have destroyed themselves by nuclear (or similar) war.

Without taking mind-altering drugs, I think I'm saying we are both not the only ones in the playground, and very likely we're not the first either. Or not and I know square root of fuck all!

All fair points.

As I posted, I always try to keep an open mind - and I love the idea that 'we are not alone'.

And yes, I wasn't suggesting 'we' were first - but given what we know about how violent the Earth's formation was and the billions of years it took to 'settle down' enough for single cells to emerge - I'm assuming other planets would have similar 'timeframes' - but not exactly the same of course.

I just find it difficult to get my head around it.

:)

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Offline A Red Abroad

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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #36 on: March 24, 2023, 12:13:29 pm »
Earth sized planets in the 'habitable zone'....

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/wd-M417Z5g4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/wd-M417Z5g4</a>


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd-M417Z5g4
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #37 on: March 24, 2023, 12:58:15 pm »
UAP - under age pensioner?
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #38 on: March 24, 2023, 01:38:16 pm »
All fair points.

As I posted, I always try to keep an open mind - and I love the idea that 'we are not alone'.

And yes, I wasn't suggesting 'we' were first - but given what we know about how violent the Earth's formation was and the billions of years it took to 'settle down' enough for single cells to emerge - I'm assuming other planets would have similar 'timeframes' - but not exactly the same of course.

I just find it difficult to get my head around it.

:)


Yeah, it is madness, on a whole different level.

And on pure logic, the US intelligence and Navy must have so much data on incidents.

Seems like there might be more of push to get scientists in to evaluate, and possibly even some public disclosure.
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Re: UAPs over America: real or balloons??
« Reply #39 on: March 24, 2023, 01:47:11 pm »
I’ve been with it there’s there’s an intelligence on this planet that’s been around a lot longer than humans for a couple of years now. The Nimitz was very compelling, but the more you dig in and investigate the history over the last 70 odd years, the more you and more it’s hard to think otherwise imo, far too much credible and compelling witness testimony. I suspect the US government has known about this since the 40s if not earlier. The new UAP bills and congressional hearings are interesting

The US ICBM nukes being shut down back in the 60s/70s being another compelling case, Ariel school encounter is another one. There’s a lot of very compelling cases. What the phenomena actually is is another thing