I think where we disagree is that you seem to see finishing as a linear skill than can improve over time and stabilise to a certain extent. I don't think that's the case and it's possible Watkins could massively underperform his xG over the next 2 years. And it wouldn't mean he was a worse finisher.
Yep, we definitely disagree on that, and I'm glad we do. Because to completely dismiss finishing as a skill is a ridiculous viewpoint, quite frankly, and I'm amazed intelligent football viewers like yourself and Jack have developed that way of thinking.
That's not to say luck and variance don't play a part. Hence my boring "truth always lies in the middle" comment. So does confidence, which I'm sure you and Jack don't believe in either. But finishing
is a skill. Ball-striking technique is the main part of it, sure. And that's the main reason I have faith that Nunez will become a better finisher as he matures and enters his peak years. He's not obviously lacking in that department, although I think he needs to learn to use his instep more effectively rather than going with his laces the majority of the time.
I don't think Raheem Sterling has ever been a
great finisher, for example, even though he scored loads of goals for City for a while. His finishing undoubtedly improved from his younger years, but I think we've seen since moving to a team that aren't consistently putting the ball on a plate for him that scoring 15-20 goals every season was the reward of his intelligence, pace and movement, and playing in an amazing system, more than it was him becoming one of the country's most natural players in front of goal.
However, on top of being able to strike a ball well and accurately, finishing is shot placement, shot selection, shot timing, body shape, along with secondary skills tying into it such as composure, two-footedness, movement... the more things you have on your side, the better finisher you will be. And sure, some luck, variance and confidence plays a part along the way. But to say that these things cannot improve or regress, or even exist...well, again, I think that's a ridiculous way of thinking. But we shall agree to disagree.