Topic: Get out of our country yer gang of fucking bellends. TORIES OUT!

[Fromola]

Not in good faith, no. But they are shameless.

I am genuinely intrigued as to what will happen at the Tory conference next week.  There will be cabinet ministers desperate to avoid endorsing this omnishambles and Truss' speech will be like watching your 4 year old perform in a class assembly.

Just read Ian Dale's thread on Twitter he reckons most of their MPs won't even go

[clinical]

Just read Ian Dale's thread on Twitter he reckons most of their MPs won't even go

Most Mps were backing Sunak i think apart from the bat shit crazy ones like Nadine Dorris.

[Red James]

I would be amused at how quickly Liz Truss has fucked things up so drastically if not for the fact we're all fucked ourselves because of it. She got a nice little reprieve for a few weeks with the Queen dying but she wasted no time after that in showing how utterly clueless she is.

[Fromola]

I can see why Starmer might be hesitant to promote voting reforms, he seems desperate to avoid giving the right wing media anything to spin that will resonate with the gammons. I can see a change from FPTP being demonised as a left wing power grab, there's no reason to risk it when the Tories are collapsing on their own.

Starmer seems a smart strategist at least and a canny operator. He's had the benefit Blair had of the Tories imploding as he took the leadership as well

Ultimately though if he does become PM his whole legacy will depend on voting reform at some point. Ideally for the Lords as well as PR for the commons. The alternative is the Tories get back in within a term or two  to destroy the country for another generation.

[clinical]

Starmer seems a smart strategist at least and a canny operator. He's had the benefit Blair had of the Tories imploding as he took the leadership as well

Ultimately though if he does become PM his whole legacy will depend on voting reform at some point. Ideally for the Lords as well as PR for the commons. The alternative is the Tories get back in within a term or two  to destroy the country for another generation.

Is there a way back? I'm not sure there is. The damage is done.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

So the party that's spent the last 12 years blaming Labour for the 2008 crash have caused our economy to be likened to an emerging market economy by the IMF?

But the gaslighting still continues.

[thaddeus]

I can see why Starmer might be hesitant to promote voting reforms, he seems desperate to avoid giving the right wing media anything to spin that will resonate with the gammons. I can see a change from FPTP being demonised as a left wing power grab, there's no reason to risk it when the Tories are collapsing on their own.

I agree.  He's treading very carefully in order to avoid giving the gutter press anything they can get their teeth into.  They'll try anyway but not all of their readers are going to lap up nonsense stories like the one about Starmer owning a field that might be worth Łmillions if he applied for and got planning permission for loads of houses.

I thought the speech went needlessly aggressive when it came to the SNP but again that feels like playing to the galleries to stop accusations that Labour would enable the break-up of the union.

Depending on your viewpoint of Starmer it's either cowardly or ingenious.

[Fromola]

Is there a way back? I'm not sure there is. The damage is done.

They'll have to find another Cameron type and rely on the full force of the right wing media to spin for them and do their bidding 

If we had a balanced media landscape they'd be out for a generation. Even Murdoch backed Blair as well and the economy was solid through his time in office. Labour will inherit a disaster

[thaddeus]

So the party that's spent the last 12 years blaming Labour for the 2008 crash have caused our economy to be likened to an emerging market economy by the IMF?

But the gaslighting still continues.

I remember reading a couple of article from financial analysts during the Tory leadership campaign that said the dashboard of warning signs for the UK economy was flashing red all over the place.  They observed that only the strength of the pound stopped the UK being an emerging market economy.  Enter Truss and Kwarteng...

[Schmarn]

I wonder if they might recall Parliament as an excuse to bin their conference.  But now Starmer has demanded it they will feel they can't (much like the windfall tax).

[killer-heels]

Just read Ian Dale's thread on Twitter he reckons most of their MPs won't even go

Sunak wont be attending apparently and the line from his team is that he wants to give Truss all the space to own the moment. Ha.

[PaulF]

Good point about how Kier might be approaching PR.  Keep it off the table so it can't lose him votes. Then bring it in when his party vote for it, it's democratically the right thing to do.
Can / should it be dobe without a referendum? It's right to keep the Tories out, but for something that huge it should go before the public. And if he loses that ..

[thaddeus]

Sunak wont be attending apparently and the line from his team is that he wants to give Truss all the space to own the moment. Ha.

Half empty halls with only the Neanderthal wing of the Tories in attendance, whooping and cheering at whatever nonsense Truss robotically delivers.  I think that will land really well with the public right now.

[Fromola]

Good point about how Kier might be approaching PR.  Keep it off the table so it can't lose him votes. Then bring it in when his party vote for it, it's democratically the right thing to do.
Can / should it be dobe without a referendum? It's right to keep the Tories out, but for something that huge it should go before the public. And if he loses that ..

You can't just introduce it in government on a whim. To get a democratic mandate you'd need it as a manifesto campaign pledge at least.

The Tory press would give Starmer the full Corbyn treatment which is what he might fear as well. They'd be very hostile over it as it would finish the Tories

[filopastry]

I agree.  He's treading very carefully in order to avoid giving the gutter press anything they can get their teeth into.  They'll try anyway but not all of their readers are going to lap up nonsense stories like the one about Starmer owning a field that might be worth Łmillions if he applied for and got planning permission for loads of houses.

I thought the speech went needlessly aggressive when it came to the SNP but again that feels like playing to the galleries to stop accusations that Labour would enable the break-up of the union.

Depending on your viewpoint of Starmer it's either cowardly or ingenious.

You know full well the Tories would love to run another "coalition of chaos" style attack on Labour as they have in the past, Labour need to distance themselves from any deals with the SNP.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

I remember reading a couple of article from financial analysts during the Tory leadership campaign that said the dashboard of warning signs for the UK economy was flashing red all over the place.  They observed that only the strength of the pound stopped the UK being an emerging market economy.  Enter Truss and Kwarteng...

The bottom line is that this country in terms of collective wealth has oodles of money, the problem is that it's in the wrong hands and this has been exacerbated by the 3 main crises of the last 15 years which has poured public money into private hands.

The lunacy of last week has increased this concentration of wealth further, and it's interesting to see how independent bodies like the IMF that have no skin in the game, or political masters to serve, have reacted. They think it's fucking bonkers. But still we get the client journalists and the ideological zealots praising the budget. This country is a madhouse because this lot wouldn't have a fucking chance if they didn't have large swathes of the media telling people who to vote for and who to fear. They rely on ignorance.

[Nobby Reserve]

Hahahahahaha

https://conservativehome.com/2022/09/28/daniel-hannan-no-the-pound-isnt-crashing-because-of-a-trifling-batch-of-tax-cuts/?fbclid=IwAR38znzChh3rDHBQH460x8VIca370q0-7TlYMVfjPQGMURyuCZpR2q9LAVQ

This is one of the funniest things I've ever read. Are they actually serious or just playing with us?

I've only read the headline, but it's correct that the Ł isn't crashing just because of some tax cuts.

It's crashing because financial markets agree with every non-partisan expert than has concluded this government and Chancellor are fucking clueless.

The government first lumped on a massive, unfunded and open-ended commitment to hold energy prices, the potential liability of which heaped pressure on Bond values (this could have been avoided if funded by a windfall tax on the estimated Ł170bn in excess profits in the energy sector)

It's also not just the costs of the top tax rate scrapping; it's that all the Łbillions used to fund it won't act as much of a bolster to the UK economy, as most will be squirrelled away overseas or pumped into the over-inflated housing market.

They also sacked a highly-respected senior Civil Servant in the Treasury - because this shower of shite wanted to abandon 'Treasury orthodoxy' (translation: we want to do stupid, experimental shit and you experts will try to stop us) so there's no handbrake on their bellendery.

The verdict is that this government is incompetent, they've over-borrowed, their 'growth' gamble won't work because the tax cuts are badly aimed, they've purged the Treasury of expert knowledge, and there is no confidence they have the first idea how to solve this shitshow.

[filopastry]

You can't just introduce it in government on a whim. To get a democratic mandate you'd need it as a manifesto campaign pledge at least.

The Tory press would give Starmer the full Corbyn treatment which is what he might fear as well. They'd be very hostile over it as it would finish the Tories

Ultimately its not an issue Labour wants to fight the next election on, far far easier to make it all about the Tory record.

If Labour eventually got to the point where they needed to offer a referendum on PR as the price for LD support after the next GE, I doubt Starmer would be particularly annoyed. I just don't think he wants to fight an election based on it.

[Wabaloolah]

For a while now I've had a suspicion that rather than being arch villains intent on screwing working people, these Tories are just utterly clueless. I think they genuinely believed that tax cuts for the rich would generate growth and spread wealth to the plebs because they read it in a right-wing wank thesis 30 years ago. The reason they have not released costings is not because they want to hide them but because they haven't worked them out yet. When Kwarteng talks of providing his medium term plans in November, he's not holding them back, he's giving himself time to create them.

It is staggering of course and borne of an arrogance that whatever they do and say, the plebs will come back to their master like an obedient dog, kicked and beaten, head bowed in deference. And here's the thing. To some degree they are justified in acting in this way because time and again the public reward them with office. I feel sorry for anyone impacted by the cost of living crisis but if they voted for Brexit or for Cameron, May or Johnson, they contributed to their own suffering.

if only that were true, the OBR prepared a forecast based on the impact of the mini-budget in advance but the government refused to release it. You can only imagine what was in it but the chances are it didn't paint the measures in a good light or the government would have released it. The additional two months will allow the Treasury to come up with some stories (aka bullshit) that shows that the measures will help the economy to recover

[Nobby Reserve]

You can't just introduce it in government on a whim. To get a democratic mandate you'd need it as a manifesto campaign pledge at least.

The Tory press would give Starmer the full Corbyn treatment which is what he might fear as well. They'd be very hostile over it as it would finish the Tories

They could tantrum all they wanted, but if the Tories suddenly lost their huge electoral advantage, it wouldn't matter a fig.

It's why I hope Labour need the LDs - so the LDs can demand PR as a condition of a coalition (formal or not)

[Machae]

So Truss and Kwarteng gambled their 'reputation' and job security on favouring big business and helping a few of their mates with tax cuts and not applying windfall taxes

I guess once they leave office, they will have a plush job elsewhere whilst the rest of us and society is left to pick up the pieces for a number of years

[Fromola]

They could tantrum all they wanted, but if the Tories suddenly lost their huge electoral advantage, it wouldn't matter a fig.

It's why I hope Labour need the LDs - so the LDs can demand PR as a condition of a coalition (formal or not)

Almost as if the Tories would rather Labour win a landslide than have to form a coalition and suits them to self destruct and let Labour pick up the mess.

[thaddeus]

You know full well the Tories would love to run another "coalition of chaos" style attack on Labour as they have in the past, Labour need to distance themselves from any deals with the SNP.

I do and I agree.  I'm in the camp that thinks Starmer is playing a smart - if at times uninspiring - game.

I've only listened to his speech once but I thought he went in as hard on the SNP as he did on the Tories which is why I think it was needlessly aggressive.  There's clearly a fundamental difference between the parties on the union but on most other issues they're closely aligned.  He could have made the point that a second referendum was never going to be offered whilst he was PM and left it there.

It felt a bit like Swinson and Corbyn getting ever more bitter towards each other in 2019 when they should have been using every second of airtime they were given to hammer Johnson and the Tories.

If it slams the lid shut on that particular angle of attack from the Tories then it's job done so not something to get too focussed on.  Back to ridiculing the Tories 

[Circa1892]

You can't just introduce it in government on a whim. To get a democratic mandate you'd need it as a manifesto campaign pledge at least.

I agree. It just depends who's manifesto it's in.

In a world where Labour are the biggest party and the Lib Dems have 20-25 MPs and have campaigned on it and have it as their price...

(There's always a risk of relying on horse trading in manifestos - I'm still convinced that Cameron/Osborne thought the Lib Dems would put the EU Referendum being canned as their price for a 2nd coalition...)

[oldfordie]

You can't just introduce it in government on a whim. To get a democratic mandate you'd need it as a manifesto campaign pledge at least.

The Tory press would give Starmer the full Corbyn treatment which is what he might fear as well. They'd be very hostile over it as it would finish the Tories

Very easy for the Torys and right wing media to attack PR.
How will it work in practice. it can't work locally so you won't be able to vote for the MP you support to represent you in parliament. you will be given the MP the Labour party etc tell you and make do with it. so marginal seats full of center voters might be given a extreme left Labour MP who they would never vote for if given a choice, how this is a fundamental part of a democracy. voters should decide who they want to represent them in Parliament, they shouldn't be told who will represent them after they have voted.
There is some truth in this, Frottage has stood for Parliament a few times, rejected every time but he would be certain to get a seat under PR. so who will he represent. which seat will he take, who will decide what seat he has.
There is a lot to be considered and my biggest concern is ive not heard anybody arguing for us to have a chance to switch back to FPTP system if things turn out badly. you would think that would be one of the priorities after the EU referendum turmoil.

[Red-Soldier]

One MP said: “They have blown the bloody doors off the economy. I have no idea how they are going to carry on now.” Another added: “Kwasi will have to go. She won’t have any option. They are actually crashing the economy and she will need somebody to blame.”

Another senior Tory MP said the mood within the Conservative party, which will meet for its annual conference in Birmingham on Saturday, was one of disbelief. They told Sky News: “I don’t think it is sustainable. I predict the chancellor will get the sack and it will unravel from there.”

[Schmidt]

One MP said: “They have blown the bloody doors off the economy. I have no idea how they are going to carry on now.” Another added: “Kwasi will have to go. She won’t have any option. They are actually crashing the economy and she will need somebody to blame.”

Another senior Tory MP said the mood within the Conservative party, which will meet for its annual conference in Birmingham on Saturday, was one of disbelief. They told Sky News: “I don’t think it is sustainable. I predict the chancellor will get the sack and it will unravel from there.”

Fucking no shit.

[Ray K]

@EdConwaySky
🚨NEW🚨
On the @bankofengland  intervention:
Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock.
Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON.


Is this bad? Now I'm no financial expert but that sorta sounds bad?

[Fromola]

Very easy for the Torys and right wing media to attack PR.
How will it work in practice. it can't work locally so you won't be able to vote for the MP you support to represent you in parliament. you will be given the MP the Labour party etc tell you and make do with it. so marginal seats full of center voters might be given a extreme left Labour MP who they would never vote for if given a choice, how this is a fundamental part of a democracy. voters should decide who they want to represent them in Parliament, they shouldn't be told who will represent them after they have voted.
There is some truth in this, Frottage has stood for Parliament a few times, rejected every time but he would be certain to get a seat under PR. so who will he represent. which seat will he take, who will decide what seat he has.
There is a lot to be considered and my biggest concern is ive not heard anybody arguing for us to have a chance to switch back to FPTP system if things turn out badly. you would think that would be one of the priorities after the EU referendum turmoil.

The thing is though Frottage has done as much if not more damage outside the tent than he would likely have done as an MP anyway.

UKIP may have been shown up for what they were if they actually had a number of MPs rather than just attacking those in parliament. They caused the referendum anyway in 2015 and even the hard Brexit in 2019 via the Brexit Party via getting g them to stand down in exchange.

[ljycb]

Does anyone have any good resources on proportional representation and how it could work in the United Kingdom? I know the basic premise and I have seen the "This is what the 2019 election would have looked like with PR" pieces, but is there anything which looks at how it would actually work? In my head, it feels like the concept of a constituency as we know it in Britain would be almost completely redundant, so as someone who likes the idea of "40% of the votes means 40% of the result", it would be good to get an explainer on it.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

I do and I agree.  I'm in the camp that thinks Starmer is playing a smart - if at times uninspiring - game.

I've only listened to his speech once but I thought he went in as hard on the SNP as he did on the Tories which is why I think it was needlessly aggressive.  There's clearly a fundamental difference between the parties on the union but on most other issues they're closely aligned.  He could have made the point that a second referendum was never going to be offered whilst he was PM and left it there.

It felt a bit like Swinson and Corbyn getting ever more bitter towards each other in 2019 when they should have been using every second of airtime they were given to hammer Johnson and the Tories.

If it slams the lid shut on that particular angle of attack from the Tories then it's job done so not something to get too focussed on.  Back to ridiculing the Tories 

I agree. He's trying to mitigate electoral risk at every turn, he knows how this plays out in UK politics and had a great reminder of it during partygate when the mail went after him and tried to build a false equivalence.

So if he wants to shithouse his way through the next couple of years like the Greeks at the Euros then fair enough.

[A-Bomb]

I have to say I had a little jump for joy moment when Starmer announced the concept of 'Great British Energy' - its a tangible solution to preventing a similar future volatility in energy markets, in addition it matches the strategic brief of renewables and green provision, which is ultimately where all countries will need to go - pioneering this is certainly to the benefit of this country.

I really want to see a strong push now every week, pressing this government to take us to a general election as they have no mandate for any of the nonsense they are implementing - we should be hearing how it is undemocratic and without consent of the voting population, as it doesn't match their manifesto ergo - they have no mandate.

Just keep laying glove after glove on these bastards - creating a swell of momentum to bring this to the ballot box then fucking stuff them into oblivion for a generation. The last 12 years have been fucking atrocious - i'm struggling to identify one win....

* NHS - on its knees
* GP's - can't make appointments
* Significantly less police than 12 years ago
* Austerity having torn apart our public services
* Economic growth anemic at best
* Brexit, undermining any economic growth through shortages in the workforce
* Scandals and general deterioration in the confidence in politics

It's just been a complete shit show - just fucking make the nightmare end.

[kaesarsosei]

Long-term, Labour needs voting reform (PR). The only way they can win any GEs now (with the rise of SNP), is with once-per-century type collapses like we are seeing from the Tories right now. Even with this mess, I think Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next GE, because that's just how stupid middle-England is. But that could be a blessing in disguise as others have said - Labour have already ruled out a pact with SNP, but if they are 5-10 short of a majority and form a coalition with LibDems, then they could push voting reform through the Commons. Hopefully once its in, it can never be reversed - and if so the UK will be a much better place in the coming decades.

On the other hand, if Labour somehow win a small majority (5-10 seats) then it would be difficult for them to suddenly bring up PR, and then by the following election the status quo (ie Tory majority) will return.

But Labour and the Lib-dems should do whatever back-room shenanigans they need to, to share power at the next GE. It would literally be better for Labour (long-term) to have 300 seats + Lib Dem 50 than 330 + 20.

Edit: even better if they shoe-horn a reverse Brexit bill too 

[Schmarn]

Does anyone have any good resources on proportional representation and how it could work in the United Kingdom? I know the basic premise and I have seen the "This is what the 2019 election would have looked like with PR" pieces, but is there anything which looks at how it would actually work? In my head, it feels like the concept of a constituency as we know it in Britain would be almost completely redundant, so as someone who likes the idea of "40% of the votes means 40% of the result", it would be good to get an explainer on it.

The Scottish Parliament elects on the basis of a constituency plus regional top up system to make it proportional. The Welsh Assembly does similar as does London.

https://www.parliament.scot/msps/about-msps/how-msps-are-elected

[Fromola]

Long-term, Labour needs voting reform (PR). The only way they can win any GEs now (with the rise of SNP), is with once-per-century type collapses like we are seeing from the Tories right now. Even with this mess, I think Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next GE, because that's just how stupid middle-England is. But that could be a blessing in disguise as others have said - Labour have already ruled out a pact with SNP, but if they are 5-10 short of a majority and form a coalition with LibDems, then they could push voting reform through the Commons. Hopefully once its in, it can never be reversed - and if so the UK will be a much better place in the coming decades.

On the other hand, if Labour somehow win a small majority (5-10 seats) then it would be difficult for them to suddenly bring up PR, and then by the following election the status quo (ie Tory majority) will return.

But Labour and the Lib-dems should do whatever back-room shenanigans they need to, to share power at the next GE. It would literally be better for Labour (long-term) to have 300 seats + Lib Dem 50 than 330 + 20.

Edit: even better if they shoe-horn a reverse Brexit bill too 

Middle England are also very selfish. Blair appealed to them in 1997 and Starmer can now they're hit in the pocket. They were ok with the poor bearing the brunt of austerity when inflation and interests rate were low and property prices were booming and spending cuts protected them. That's gone now.

The seats Blair won from them (I.e..Portillo's) are up for grabs again.

The problem is they're only ever on loan to Labour and PR is needed to stop the Tories just returning to power again 5-10 years later

[Jiminy Cricket]

Does anyone have any good resources on proportional representation and how it could work in the United Kingdom? I know the basic premise and I have seen the "This is what the 2019 election would have looked like with PR" pieces, but is there anything which looks at how it would actually work? In my head, it feels like the concept of a constituency as we know it in Britain would be almost completely redundant, so as someone who likes the idea of "40% of the votes means 40% of the result", it would be good to get an explainer on it.

Not necessarily. Look at the New Zealand system. Well thought out, and the process for them arriving at their system was grown-up. Of course, that's could be a problem for the UK.

https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/fpp-to-mmp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_New_Zealand

[Lusty]

Does anyone have any good resources on proportional representation and how it could work in the United Kingdom? I know the basic premise and I have seen the "This is what the 2019 election would have looked like with PR" pieces, but is there anything which looks at how it would actually work? In my head, it feels like the concept of a constituency as we know it in Britain would be almost completely redundant, so as someone who likes the idea of "40% of the votes means 40% of the result", it would be good to get an explainer on it.

This is a good run through of the different types of PR and where they are used:

https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/

I think it's important to keep the constituency link, and there are systems that allow for that.

[Red Beret]

@EdConwaySky
🚨NEW🚨
On the @bankofengland  intervention:
Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock.
Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON.


Is this bad? Now I'm no financial expert but that sorta sounds bad?

Yeah, it's very bad.

[Nobby Reserve]

EXC: Rishi Sunak will not attend Conservative Party conference. He’ll be in Yorkshire instead.

Ally says former chancellor will give Truss all the space she needs to own the moment

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1575078802748645377

 


Sunak's got to now be thinking that leadership contest was a great one to lose.

[clinical]

@EdConwaySky
🚨NEW🚨
On the @bankofengland  intervention:
Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock.
Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON.


Is this bad? Now I'm no financial expert but that sorta sounds bad?

It's a disaster and no one has any idea where the PM is hiding.