Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22  (Read 12850 times)

Offline JP-65

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Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« on: August 24, 2021, 10:58:45 pm »
I think this is around the 17th or 18th season of doing this.

I've added West Ham to the analysis....easier to delete them than add them once the season is well underway.

Just the summary to start it off.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2021, 11:35:09 am »
I'd say Arsenal are already out of the running to win the title.

2.50 ppg to reach 90 points.....highly unlikely

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2021, 03:00:45 pm »
Thank you senor!
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline redk84

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2021, 03:19:54 pm »
Excellent
Thanks for this

2 down, 36 to go
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For They Have Seen GOD.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2021, 07:45:09 pm »
We're +6 = 75 points in our equivalent games. Just match the big games of last season (thereabouts), and our form against mid-table and lower mid-table sides will improve from last season. If that happens, we're hitting 90.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2021, 10:38:12 pm »
Match 3 update:

Ex-Arsenal, strong start to the season for the "biggies"....gonna be competitive this go around IMO

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2021, 05:50:55 pm »
Chart showing Relative Performance (opponent's ppg at time of match played)

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #7 on: September 1, 2021, 01:58:11 pm »
Fink Tank prediction for 2021-2 season

"Well here are the figures from the team behind the Fink Tank. It's best to look at the broad story at this point, since it has to slowly adjust to the transfer window. The fact that there are four clubs with a proper chance of winning the Prem and the arresting relegation"
« Last Edit: September 1, 2021, 02:03:04 pm by JP-65 »

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #8 on: September 1, 2021, 01:59:45 pm »
An xG based prediction (from twitter)

Offline redforlife

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #9 on: September 1, 2021, 02:31:09 pm »
Thanks very much JP
Didi Hamann

In the corridors and changing rooms of Anfield I met many people - the great, the talented, the legendary.  I know that I only met one genius.  He was a small, smiling man with a neatly clipped beard.  His name was Rafael Benitez.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #10 on: September 1, 2021, 04:26:37 pm »
I'm sure we will get more than 73 points, that the mean points says in one of the tables. We had one of the most injury ravaged seasons in history and we managed 69 points. We're already +6 on it in the equivalent table.

Even if we only match last seasons results from now onward (which we're expected to build on top comfortably rather than match it now that the injured players in defense are back, which means we have a stronger defense, and a stronger midfield with no domino effect of midfielders having to play in defense), we should hit 75, which should be enough to get Top 4.

If we have a +10 from now onward (totaling to +16 with the +6 we already have), we should hit 85 easily. That amounts to 3 more wins and 1 more draw from last season in the next 35 games.

Anything more than that and we will be in the Title Race.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #11 on: September 1, 2021, 05:31:55 pm »
I'm sure we will get more than 73 points, that the mean points says in one of the tables. We had one of the most injury ravaged seasons in history and we managed 69 points. We're already +6 on it in the equivalent table.

Even if we only match last seasons results from now onward (which we're expected to build on top comfortably rather than match it now that the injured players in defense are back, which means we have a stronger defense, and a stronger midfield with no domino effect of midfielders having to play in defense), we should hit 75, which should be enough to get Top 4.

If we have a +10 from now onward (totaling to +16 with the +6 we already have), we should hit 85 easily. That amounts to 3 more wins and 1 more draw from last season in the next 35 games.

Anything more than that and we will be in the Title Race.

Agree completely, I think all the pundits are grossly underestimating our team & squad quality.

We dropped a lot of points last season, to teams we won't this time around.....having our defense back will make a huge difference.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #12 on: September 1, 2021, 05:35:27 pm »
Here's our last 3 season's results

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #13 on: September 1, 2021, 05:36:48 pm »
Just reverting to the prior 2 seasons home form will give us 18-19 points more!

Offline redforlife

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2021, 06:31:20 am »
Another 2 points gained on last season, happy days
Didi Hamann

In the corridors and changing rooms of Anfield I met many people - the great, the talented, the legendary.  I know that I only met one genius.  He was a small, smiling man with a neatly clipped beard.  His name was Rafael Benitez.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2021, 10:31:17 am »
Week 4 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2021, 10:42:52 am »
The results:  For better viewing I've split it into the contenders & the pretenders  ;D

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2021, 03:19:40 pm »


Since we last lost in the league. Need to keep this up for another 15 games, it'll break them all if we do.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2021, 03:31:23 pm »
Yup, back to 98 pts running rate for the last 14, that'll shock most of the pundits out there  8)

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2021, 01:22:47 pm »
Match 5 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2021, 08:42:03 pm »
Very interesting

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2021, 09:25:17 pm »
Very interesting indeed. :)
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2021, 09:27:55 pm »
Not a chance Chelsea or Utd are winning the league with that XG. Would be interesting to know what Chelsea’s XG was under Conte with their 5 at the back to compare their sides though.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2021, 09:30:34 pm by stonecold_jpm »

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2021, 09:41:41 pm »
Do the difficulty of the games not have an influence on that sort of stuff?

Offline Chris~

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2021, 09:53:49 pm »
Do the difficulty of the games not have an influence on that sort of stuff?
Not in that table. There's probably some models that account for that as a variable.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #25 on: September 21, 2021, 09:25:42 am »
Checking in for the new season - keep up the good work, JP!

Attached a table of results comparing this season with the corresponding fixtures from 2020/21, including xG - We're in very good shape.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2021, 12:38:39 pm »
Checking in for the new season - keep up the good work, JP!

Attached a table of results comparing this season with the corresponding fixtures from 2020/21, including xG - We're in very good shape.

Good one Beez

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2021, 12:42:35 pm »
Picked this up off the internet

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #28 on: September 21, 2021, 01:45:41 pm »
Something similar from 4-4-2

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2021, 02:50:00 pm »
The results:  For better viewing I've split it into the contenders & the pretenders  ;D

Case to be made now for swapping Norwich and Brentford round on these? Would put us back to +6 on equivalent and show we still have a lot of work to do to catch City. Chelsea aren’t making any inroads at all to better last seasons results, again a loss to City just matches their loss to them last season, they’ll have to go some to win this league and I just can’t see it with their setup.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2021, 03:23:06 pm »
Case to be made now for swapping Norwich and Brentford round on these? Would put us back to +6 on equivalent and show we still have a lot of work to do to catch City. Chelsea aren’t making any inroads at all to better last seasons results, again a loss to City just matches their loss to them last season, they’ll have to go some to win this league and I just can’t see it with their setup.

No, you can't keep changing that in the middle of the season. Last season's bottom three = Championship top 3 and it stays like that.

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #31 on: September 26, 2021, 03:38:40 pm »
No, you can't keep changing that in the middle of the season. Last season's bottom three = Championship top 3 and it stays like that.

Norwich are clearly gonna be as bad as Sheffield united were though and Brentford are clearly a better side of the teams who came up than Norwich and be far better representation to Fulham as a more difficult place to go on the road. It’s all hypothetical of which of the three they each replaced. Yesterday’s result certainly matches the same type of game it was at Fulham for sure.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #32 on: September 26, 2021, 03:43:24 pm »
Norwich are clearly gonna be as bad as Sheffield united were though and Brentford are clearly a better side of the teams who came up than Norwich and be far better representation to Fulham as a more difficult place to go on the road. It’s all hypothetical of which of the three they each replaced. Yesterday’s result certainly matches the same type of game it was at Fulham for sure.

Its 6 games and whilst Brentford have had a decent start its far too easy to say they are clearly better. Norwich beat City earlier on in 19/20 as well.

Also most teams beat Fulham on the road so whilst its tough for us, it may not be for others.

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #33 on: September 26, 2021, 03:51:06 pm »
Its 6 games and whilst Brentford have had a decent start its far too easy to say they are clearly better. Norwich beat City earlier on in 19/20 as well.

Also most teams beat Fulham on the road so whilst its tough for us, it may not be for others.

Chelsea & City beat both home and away so the only team it’d affect is Utd and ourselves. Either way we’re down to +6 on equivalent, either equalled the result or dropped 2.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2021, 03:52:47 pm by stonecold_jpm »

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #34 on: September 26, 2021, 05:30:52 pm »
Norwich are clearly gonna be as bad as Sheffield united were though and Brentford are clearly a better side of the teams who came up than Norwich and be far better representation to Fulham as a more difficult place to go on the road. It’s all hypothetical of which of the three they each replaced. Yesterday’s result certainly matches the same type of game it was at Fulham for sure.

The point is it's NOT hypothetical on who replaces whom. Every season it is followed that the last three is replaced in the same order by the first three of the Championship. Norwich finished 1st last season and deserve to replace the highest relegated team. If we chop and change this through the season, it makes no sense calculating this. It would be as absurd as making a par 3 as par 1 during the middle of the season in APLT.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #35 on: September 26, 2021, 05:36:12 pm »
Chelsea & City beat both home and away so the only team it’d affect is Utd and ourselves. Either way we’re down to +6 on equivalent, either equalled the result or dropped 2.

We're on +6 because last season we beat Sheffield away and we drew against Brentford this season.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #36 on: September 27, 2021, 12:07:46 pm »
Match 6 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #37 on: September 27, 2021, 12:11:20 pm »
The rest:

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #38 on: September 27, 2021, 12:16:35 pm »
Thanks for the update, mate

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #39 on: September 27, 2021, 12:54:00 pm »
Thanks for the update, mate

Thanks back for taking the time to explain the methodology