Topic: The PL run-in

[Fromola]

What title do you think we're more likely to win, CL or PL?
I'd put my money on CL, although a betting company would probably say PL.

It's the gap we have to City. If we were still neck and neck with them it'd be hard to call because we're capable of going on a run business end of the season (even last season 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 games). They just very rarely drop points though, so you can't afford to be chasing them.

The thing with the CL is if we've got our best side out you'd back us against anyone. Missing a key player or two can make all the difference though. We've gone to Chelsea this season with Milner in midfield and played City at home with Milner at right back. Nothing against the lad (he's still a good player to bring on in big games) but to win the CL we'll need to beat one or both of City and Chelsea and we can't afford that kind of thing. We need our best players on the pitch.

[Nick110581]

It's the gap we have to City. If we were still neck and neck with them it'd be hard to call because we're capable of going on a run business end of the season (even last season 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 games). They just very rarely drop points though, so you can't afford to be chasing them.

The thing with the CL is if we've got our best side out you'd back us against anyone. Missing a key player or two can make all the difference though. We've gone to Chelsea this season with Milner in midfield and played City at home with Milner at right back. Nothing against the lad (he's still a good player to bring on in big games) but to win the CL we'll need to beat one or both of City and Chelsea and we can't afford that kind of thing. We need our best players on the pitch.

We could win the CL avoiding both of them

[Fromola]

We could win the CL avoiding both of them

Possibly, chances are it'll be another all-English final unless Bayern step up.

The Italian and Spanish sides aren't strong and PSG will fall short against a good side. You'd be disappointed if we went out to any of them (like with Real last year it'd take a bunch of injuries and a bad day at the office). With City and Chelsea we're more evenly matched.

[UntouchableLuis]

Covid unfortunately will play a part at some stage again. I've got horrible visions of Salah missing a key game somewhere because of a covid positive test.

Hopefully we get to a stage in the not too distant future where isolation is no longer needed for vaccinated people.

[alonsoisared]

We conceded one goal yesterday. Of course we could make sure teams don't get a sniff by playing a low block defence and making sure Trent and Robertson don't cross the halfway line. Maybe have two defensive midifelders and play one striker up top...

Or we play the high risk strategy that won us the league and the European Cup. has us 2nd in the league, in a cup final and still in the FA Cup and CL. We rely on the recovery speed of our centre backs, a monster of a defensive midfielder and the brilliance of our goalkeeper. There will be gaps to play in behind Trent because he's usually high up on the wing or moving into the centre to create mayhem and provide assists.

TV pundits love talking about our high line as if Klopp and his team aren't well aware of the risks involved.

I know what you're saying Alan but we could easily have conceded 3 or 4 yesterday, they were creating big chances. We seemed much more measured in the title winning season. I know the fundamentals are the same but we felt nowhere near as on edge as we do now. Teams wouldn't get close to our goal for most of the 90 minutes, it seems all they need to do at the moment is win the ball back, stick one over the top and they're in. Part of the problem is the midfield because it's become too easy to run straight at our defence. Maybe there's more to it, I'm not an expert on the tactical side of things, all I can say is it's pretty clear that we aren't on the level defensively as we were then.

[Uncle Ronnie]

Covid unfortunately will play a part at some stage again. I've got horrible visions of Salah missing a key game somewhere because of a covid positive test.

Hopefully we get to a stage in the not too distant future where isolation is no longer needed for vaccinated people.

I think the UK are planning removing isolation rules from March? So you’re in luck, unless you live in the UK

[rob1966]

The problem when you look at City is that it is easy to only remember the runs where they win 10 or 15 games in a row and forget about the times when they do drop points.  In the last 38 game stretch they have had 5 game runs of 9 points, 9 points, and 11 points back to back (to back) for a total of 29 points over 15 games.  If they repeat that run then they finish om 86 points which is definitely beatable.  They are not perfect, and we just need to keep the pressure on and get them worried.  A run of injuries, bad refereeing decisions, early red cards, or a couple of wonder strikes can happen at any time and suddenly things can start to look very different.

We just need to go back to that siege mentality of 'one game at a time' that we did so well in 18/ 19 and 19/ 20, and hope for some good luck around injuries.  And if City do run up a crazy points total that we can't catch then we'll just have to settle for the treble rather than the quadruple.

There is a four game run starting with Everton away where they'll be expected to win them all, but I have a sneaky suspicion they will drop points. When they go to the Pit, if Drunken is still in charge, I expect them to get the shit kicked out of them and I don't think they will be up for the fight and could drop points there. Solskjaer somehow managed to get wins at the Emptyhad and hopefully they will at least scab a draw, Palace away will be tough, they could lose there and Brighton are capable of getting a point.

We'll just go one game at a time and try to chip away at their lead.

[UntouchableLuis]

Everton will absolutely not be taking anything from City. It would be interesting to see Everton's results against any side where there was even a glimmer of helping us out if they won. I'd bet they've lost every single game in that scenario. When was the last time Everton didn't lose to City actually? Must be going back a while.

Edit: just looked, they've lost their last 9 games against them. Last time they got something was August 2017 in a 1-1 draw.

[buttersstotch]

Surely the key for us will be when the Champions League comes back - we're going to be having 2 really intense games in a week (at least). This is where we need to freshen up from time to time, especially in midfield. I think having a fit and available squad as possible come 2 weeks time will be massive. And us being at least close means City can't rest all their key players. As others have said, we have a large squad than City but their drop-off in quality is next to nothing.

It's going to be incredibly tough and there's little margin for error. City have this odd habit of dropping points out of nowhere though, I think them losing the winning streak was key as it could easily have gone to 15+ games.

[Schmarn]

Just win our games. The pressure will build on them if we start winning relentlessly. So far we’ve looked more likely to drop points so they’ve been able to play without fear. If we do our business I’m comfortable that they’ll start to tighten up.

[MNAA]

Listing the fixtures out like that has pretty much zapped my hopes after the optimism of City dropping points this weekend. I can't see them losing any of those games. We're already in need of snookers but we know that. We just have to really hope we can keep the pressure on them and capitalise (and win any games in hand) when the opportunity arises.

Did you see them losing 2 points at Southampton? Why look too far ahead. Focus on our game. One at a time. That’s how you enjoy the ride …

[harleydanger]

Everton will absolutely not be taking anything from City. It would be interesting to see Everton's results against any side where there was even a glimmer of helping us out if they won. I'd bet they've lost every single game in that scenario. When was the last time Everton didn't lose to City actually? Must be going back a while.

Edit: just looked, they've lost their last 9 games against them. Last time they got something was August 2017 in a 1-1 draw.

It would be classic Everton to beat City when the entirety of Goodison wants their own team to lose.

[jckliew]

It would be classic Everton to beat City when the entirety of Goodison wants their own team to lose.

 

[keyop]

On the balance of the season so far you'd have to say though that it's them who are playing like champions they've spent £1billion in 5 years, had hardly any injuries, hardly any covid, and no players at Afcon.

Please don't say City are playing like Champions. They are playing like cheats. We need to stop this narrative that winning the most games somehow means you deserve the title.

Other teams do. They don't.

[PaulF]

Not getting my hopes up too much until we play them.
Exciting though . It's a very tough ask to stay in touch till then but we've seen this squad don't before .

[FlashGordon]

Even if we can't catch them, we need to focus on putting some space between us and the others so we can focus more attention on the Champions League and maybe even the FA Cup.

When we catch them, there will be miles between us and the rest as a consequence of catching them. This post makes no sense, do you think the rest of the league are going to suddenly start playing at a title winning level 

[mrantarctica]

Please don't say City are playing like Champions. They are playing like cheats. We need to stop this narrative that winning the most games somehow means you deserve the title.

Other teams do. They don't.

Exactly. Winning the title and being worthy of praise for winning the title are two separate things. It's as if they are beating a video game on the beginner mode with cheat codes enabled. That's nothing special or noteworthy. In fact, I'm surprised that more isn't made of the fact that they don't actually win everything every year.

[jepovic]

Even if we don't win in the end, we do have a chance and that makes the whole run-in so much more interesting.
Top-3 is almost secured already, and fighting with Chelsea over 2nd/3rd place wouldn't be very exciting.

[MonsLibpool]

We can win lads. City are likely to bottle it if we put them under pressure because they are a bit soft mentally.

[lamonti]

There is a four game run starting with Everton away where they'll be expected to win them all, but I have a sneaky suspicion they will drop points. When they go to the Pit, if Drunken is still in charge, I expect them to get the shit kicked out of them and I don't think they will be up for the fight and could drop points there. Solskjaer somehow managed to get wins at the Emptyhad and hopefully they will at least scab a draw, Palace away will be tough, they could lose there and Brighton are capable of getting a point.

We'll just go one game at a time and try to chip away at their lead.

Everton would throw the game against City even if it meant they went into the relegation zone.

[MonsLibpool]

Everton would throw the game against City even if it meant they went into the relegation zone.

The Ev can definitely get something. Historically, they have a good record against City and they'll need the points to secure their safety.

[Crosby Nick]

We can win lads. City are likely to bottle it if we put them under pressure because they are a bit soft mentally.

Th year we got 97 and didn’t win it they were pretty mentally tough sadly. The bastards.

[Barneylfc∗]

City v Villa last game of the season. Would be nice of Gerrard and Coutinho to pull one out of the bag there.

[MonsLibpool]

Th year we got 97 and didn’t win it they were pretty mentally tough sadly. The bastards.

It's easier to chase than to be chased. The possibility of bottling a big lead puts more pressure on them.

[wige]

The Ev can definitely get something. Historically, they have a good record against City and they'll need the points to secure their safety.

2 wins and 4 draws since 2013. Nothing but defeats since Aug 2017. Hope you're right though.

05 Oct 2013   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-1   Premier League
03 May 2014   Everton v Manchester City   L   2-3   Premier League
06 Dec 2014   Manchester City v Everton   L   1-0   Premier League
10 Jan 2015   Everton v Manchester City   D   1-1   Premier League
23 Aug 2015   Everton v Manchester City   L   0-2   Premier League
06 Jan 2016   Everton v Manchester City   W   2-1   League Cup
13 Jan 2016   Manchester City v Everton   D   0-0   Premier League
27 Jan 2016   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-1   League Cup
15 Oct 2016   Manchester City v Everton   D   1-1   Premier League
15 Jan 2017   Everton v Manchester City   W   4-0   Premier League
21 Aug 2017   Manchester City v Everton   D   1-1   Premier League
31 Mar 2018   Everton v Manchester City   L   1-3   Premier League
15 Dec 2018   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-1   Premier League
06 Feb 2019   Everton v Manchester City   L   0-2   Premier League
28 Sep 2019   Everton v Manchester City   L   1-3   Premier League
01 Jan 2020   Manchester City v Everton   L   2-1   Premier League
17 Feb 2021   Everton v Manchester City   L   1-3   Premier League
20 Mar 2021   Everton v Manchester City   L   0-2   FA Cup
23 May 2021   Manchester City v Everton   L   5-0   Premier League
21 Nov 2021   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-0   Premier League

[lamonti]

That 4-0 win in Guardiola's first season makes a lot of people think Everton ever get anything against City.

Just stay on the trail is all we can do. Win our games, let the press talk about how we need binoculars to see City's trail, and keep waiting for them to grind against someone somewhere.

[MonsLibpool]

2 wins and 4 draws since 2013. Nothing but defeats since Aug 2017.

05 Oct 2013   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-1   Premier League
03 May 2014   Everton v Manchester City   L   2-3   Premier League
06 Dec 2014   Manchester City v Everton   L   1-0   Premier League
10 Jan 2015   Everton v Manchester City   D   1-1   Premier League
23 Aug 2015   Everton v Manchester City   L   0-2   Premier League
06 Jan 2016   Everton v Manchester City   W   2-1   League Cup
13 Jan 2016   Manchester City v Everton   D   0-0   Premier League
27 Jan 2016   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-1   League Cup
15 Oct 2016   Manchester City v Everton   D   1-1   Premier League
15 Jan 2017   Everton v Manchester City   W   4-0   Premier League
21 Aug 2017   Manchester City v Everton   D   1-1   Premier League
31 Mar 2018   Everton v Manchester City   L   1-3   Premier League
15 Dec 2018   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-1   Premier League
06 Feb 2019   Everton v Manchester City   L   0-2   Premier League
28 Sep 2019   Everton v Manchester City   L   1-3   Premier League
01 Jan 2020   Manchester City v Everton   L   2-1   Premier League
17 Feb 2021   Everton v Manchester City   L   1-3   Premier League
20 Mar 2021   Everton v Manchester City   L   0-2   FA Cup
23 May 2021   Manchester City v Everton   L   5-0   Premier League
21 Nov 2021   Manchester City v Everton   L   3-0   Premier League

Before Pep came in, they used to get results regularly and City were already financially doped. They drew with them at the Etihad in their best season.

Their recent record looks worse than I thought but I still back them. Imagine if the mancs and the bitters help us make up those 6 points.

[ScouserAtHeart]

When was the last time we were still in contention for all 4 trophies at the start of Feb?

[BassTunedToRed]

When was the last time we were still in contention for all 4 trophies at the start of Feb?

Saw a tweet yesterday saying it's never happened before but not easy to check.

[Barneylfc∗]

When was the last time we were still in contention for all 4 trophies at the start of Feb?

It depends on how you define 'in contention'

2016 we were still in 4 competitions.

2001 is also an obvious candidate

[Crosby Nick]

When was the last time we were still in contention for all 4 trophies at the start of Feb?

I guess it can only be the times we made the League Cup final?

2012 - not in Europe that season, out of the running in the League
2005 - out of the FA Cup, out of the running in the League
2003 - maybe out of the FA Cup (lost 4th round to Palace), falling away in the League, still in UEFA
2001 - in all cups, but not in serious title contention
1995 - not in Europe, still in FA Cup, not in serious title contention

League Cup final used to be played March/April time but you might still have to go back to the early 80s. And even then when we were dominating the League Cup we had a weirdly bad FA Cup record (knocked out early by Brighton twice in a row).

[TAA66]

City v Villa last game of the season. Would be nice of Gerrard and Coutinho to pull one out of the bag there.

At least if we need something on the final day, we know Stevie will go all out

[ScouserAtHeart]

Yeah I probably should've cleared up the criteria 

League Cup final
FA Cup 4th/5th round (depending on the schedule that year)
Champions League Round of 16/2nd Group Stage
Leading the league/within 5 points of the leaders (Yes, I know we'll be 6 behind if we win our game in hand but we also have a game against the leaders still to come)

[rob1966]

Everton would throw the game against City even if it meant they went into the relegation zone.

Bollocks they will. They know that if they go down, the club is fucked, they will have to fight for every point they can get from now on.

[Barneylfc∗]

Yeah I probably should've cleared up the criteria 

League Cup final
FA Cup 4th/5th round (depending on the schedule that year)
Champions League Round of 16/2nd Group Stage
Leading the league/within 5 points of the leaders (Yes, I know we'll be 6 behind if we win our game in hand but we also have a game against the leaders still to come)

81/82

Won the league cup
FA Cup 5th round (lost to Chelsea
Lost in the European Cup 3rd round in March
Won the league

82/83 was the same. Won the league and league cup, lost the FA cup 5th round and European cup 3rd round.

[PaulF]

City v Villa last game of the season. Would be nice of Gerrard and Coutinho to pull one out of the bag there.

Did I see they were sniffing around Gomez too?
Can see Gerrard running up to a camera.....

[ianburns252]

Too easy to conflate the fans with the players too - these are professionals at the end of the day and I just cannot believe that the Everton players would willingly throw a game.

Fact of the matter is that while it may look like they aren't trying or are making it easy for teams the reality is that they are just that dogshit

[ScouserAtHeart]

81/82

Won the league cup
FA Cup 5th round (lost to Chelsea
Lost in the European Cup 3rd round in March
Won the league

82/83 was the same. Won the league and league cup, lost the FA cup 5th round and European cup 3rd round.

So it's still a pretty historical season when put in context

[redk84]

city seem to have a big winning run like the one we've just seen every season.

does anybody have any stats on how they far in the 10 games after their 10 (or near 10-game) winning streaks over the years?

[SouthDerryLaggo]

The Ev can definitely get something. Historically, they have a good record against City and they'll need the points to secure their safety.

LOL no they don't