Topic: The largest stock market bubble ever seen is finally Ko'd by Covid-19

[conman]

I would have thought one of the most respected macro thinkers and investors in the world would have a Wikipedia page to be honest.

I guess he's not then

[Gnurglan]

I'm no expert on this topic at all and he could be absolutely right but that Twitter account just screams con artist to me. It just comes across like he's pushing people in a direction he will benefit from.

You don't have to believe him. He doesn't know everything. Use him as a source of information. Listen to his view, listen to someone else who has a different view and make up your own mind.

[Elmo!]

You don't have to believe him. He doesn't know everything. Use him as a source of information. Listen to his view, listen to someone else who has a different view and make up your own mind.

Sure. As I said I don't know much about this.

I just meant as a layman, that's how he comes across - as a salesman.

EDIT: I decided to go back to his Twitter feed and he goes on to push his prouct, Real Vision, 'without wanting to sound like a salesman'  .

So I go to their website and decide I will watch their latest briefing, to find out I need to sign up for their membership, starting at $239 per year!

Fine that's his business, but take what he is tweeting as that, a sales pitch.

[conman]

You don't have to believe him. He doesn't know everything. Use him as a source of information. Listen to his view, listen to someone else who has a different view and make up your own mind.

Exactly how it should approach it. Over time, you get to sort out the wheat from the chaff.

I knew feck all a few years ago and even now I'm still quite wet behind the ears. I've basically been on a 3-4 year learning curve as I could see this crash coming for years and I needed to prepare.

[Gnurglan]

Sure. As I said I don't know much about this.

I just meant as a layman, that's how he comes across - as a salesman.

I have followed him for a while and I disagree with that view. Yes, he promotes his Youtube channel. Yes, he is pro-Bitcoin. I am not, but I still want to hear why he thinks it's the future. Maybe try and watch something else? Have a look at this

https://youtu.be/pkB5ugK0YDY

where he speaks about the problems around retirements.

[Elmo!]

I have followed him for a while and I disagree with that view. Yes, he promotes his Youtube channel. Yes, he is pro-Bitcoin. I am not, but I still want to hear why he thinks it's the future. Maybe try and watch something else? Have a look at this

https://youtu.be/pkB5ugK0YDY

where he speaks about the problems around retirements.

He's using these calamitous predictions to drive people to his website, to which he charges for membership.

[Red-Soldier]

He's using these calamitous predictions to drive people to his website, to which he charges for membership.

Sounds like a wholesome fellow.

[Elmo!]

I guess he's not then

I mean surely if he was that respected worldwide, at least his business would be on Wikipedia, right?

[Iska]

There are loads of disaster investors around, used to be they published books about gold but now they seem to make their livings from cryptocurrency.  That’s not to say they’re wrong here of course, make up your own mind I guess.

[conman]

Let's not derail this thread talking about a guy you don't know, but for which you both have quickly gained a negative an opion of.

Instead, keep it on the topic of what's actually happening with the global economy.

[Gnurglan]

He's using these calamitous predictions to drive people to his website, to which he charges for membership.

He doesn't come across as the most optimistic, I'll give you that. Yes, he wants people to become members. Of course. It's a business. A lot of stuff is also free. I'd say that the free stuff is way better than what we get on tv. My view is that it's not primarily a sales pitch from him, it's his opinion/analysis. Doesn't matter really, we will see if he's right or wrong.

If you want something more positive, check out Grant Williams’ interview with Anthony Deden, also on Real Vision.

[Elmo!]

Let's not derail this thread talking about a guy you don't know, but for which you both have quickly gained a negative an opion of.

Instead, keep it on the topic of what's actually happening with the global economy.

I think a crititique of a source being pushed in a thread is important.

And sometimes it takes someone from outside to spot a con.

[conman]

I think a crititique of a source being pushed in a thread is important.

And sometimes it takes someone from outside to spot a con.

I'm all for critique, but this isn't really critique, it's opinion based scanning some of his tweets.

His company "Real Vision", as he dubs it is the Netflix of finance. They bring in some of the top minds in the world of finance to talk about all sorts of topics. They typically sit down on chairs opposite each other and discuss in great detail. I find these discussions quite fascinating to be honest. There's no upsell, there's no hidden agendy. It's hugely informative and gives us insigths into things we ordinarily wouldn't know about.

Raoul himself has been calling this huge bubble for a few years, but he's not the only one. To tell you the truth, he's been eerily accurate to date regarding this bubble and how it would unfold. Back in january, he was calling the virus the biggest threat in our lifetimes and it will likely kick start the global recession/depression.

On the flipside, he did call a Euro crises back in 2013 that didn't quite materialise. He got slated for it by some, but that doesn't mean he was wrong. It's all about probability really. The ECBs interventions did enough to stave off the collapse and kick the can a little further down the road, to 2020 as we would have it.

My point about keeping it on topic is that there is a huge economic catastrophy crumbling all around us right now and most of the world don't see it yet. Everyone is too distracted by the virus and can't see the other monster that is looming over us all.

Traditional news outlets are frequently aligning the virus with the stock market crash, but that's only part of the story. The virus certainly triggered the crash to happen right now and probably put the fear of god into some investors and speculators. They would have known how fragile this house of cards is, so they had a firesale, causing stocks to crumble.

I just don't want us to lose sight of what's happening, as it's far too important.

Ta

[CHOPPER]

Spent 10 quid on Knorr shares. Fucking nothing. Rubbish.

[FiSh77]

Spent 10 quid on Knorr shares. Fucking nothing. Rubbish.

Oxo is where it's at fella

[Red-Soldier]

I'm all for critique, but this isn't really critique, it's opinion based scanning some of his tweets.

His company "Real Vision", as he dubs it is the Netflix of finance. They bring in some of the top minds in the world of finance to talk about all sorts of topics. They typically sit down on chairs opposite each other and discuss in great detail. I find these discussions quite fascinating to be honest. There's no upsell, there's no hidden agendy. It's hugely informative and gives us insigths into things we ordinarily wouldn't know about.

Raoul himself has been calling this huge bubble for a few years, but he's not the only one. To tell you the truth, he's been eerily accurate to date regarding this bubble and how it would unfold. Back in january, he was calling the virus the biggest threat in our lifetimes and it will likely kick start the global recession/depression.

On the flipside, he did call a Euro crises back in 2013 that didn't quite materialise. He got slated for it by some, but that doesn't mean he was wrong. It's all about probability really. The ECBs interventions did enough to stave off the collapse and kick the can a little further down the road, to 2020 as we would have it.

My point about keeping it on topic is that there is a huge economic catastrophy crumbling all around us right now and most of the world don't see it yet. Everyone is too distracted by the virus and can't see the other monster that is looming over us all.

Traditional news outlets are frequently aligning the virus with the stock market crash, but that's only part of the story. The virus certainly triggered the crash to happen right now and probably put the fear of god into some investors and speculators. They would have known how fragile this house of cards is, so they had a firesale, causing stocks to crumble.

I just don't want us to lose sight of what's happening, as it's far too important.

Ta

I guess he's not big on science then.

[Gnurglan]

And now we will have the ECB trying to buy just about everything...

[kavah]

 

Oxo is where it's at fella

Ha ha - now I get it 

There is actually an OXO drought in Singapore where I am right now, could make a few bob off the expats if you had a decent supply 

[Lush is the best medicine...]

And the Dow is under 20k

[FiSh77]

Ha ha - now I get it 

There is actually an OXO drought in Singapore where I am right now, could make a few bob off the expats if you had a decent supply 

This time next year you could be a bouillonaire

[kavah]

 

[Trada]

Bloomberg
‏Verified account @business
5m5 minutes ago

BREAKING: Philippine stocks drop 24% as trading resumes after two-day halt

[kloppismydad]

Bloomberg
‏Verified account @business
5m5 minutes ago

BREAKING: Philippine stocks drop 24% as trading resumes after two-day halt

That's not surprising. There will be corrections to bring the market on par with what's happening globally.

As someone who is an equity investor, I'm waiting for the markets to bottom out. They will at some point, but the question is when: 6 months, a year, or a longer period than that? Although the likes of DB, Morgan Stanley, Goldman are predicting doom for the market (and they have the right people and data to make that call), I think the situation substantially alters itself once we have a vaccine ready or the daily number of new infections drop.

We also have to keep in mind that the stock market has been impacted due to the price war between Saudi and Russia for crude oil. I think lower oil prices will significantly aid recovery of the market.

For now, I'm letting my investments in equity markets stay and I'm taking the hit on them. Wondering what to do with the liquidity I have - whether to keep it with or invest in some arbitrage market to be later used to invest in the equity markets once the markets start performing better.

[killer-heels]

Cant they just print shit loads of money and give it to people while markets and businesses (that remain) pretend that all this never happened?

[kavah]

Qantas suspend International Flights from the end of the month until June

https://www.qantas.com/sg/en/travel-info/travel-updates/coronavirus.html

[conman]

Cant they just print shit loads of money and give it to people while markets and businesses (that remain) pretend that all this never happened?

They can print loads of money, but that leads to inflation and potentially hyperinflation.

They are in a serious pickle right now.

[Giono]

This should be called the Trump recession. He pushed for low taxes and low interest rates during the good times and didn't have these tools when the crap hit the fan.

[Giono]

I think a crititique of a source being pushed in a thread is important.

And sometimes it takes someone from outside to spot a con.

Agree. Although it is difficult to find anyone these days who isn't trying to monetise anything coming out of their mouths.

I was a fan of Roubini but then he monetised and went behind a paywall. But at least he is a university professor and his bias is clear and he is scrutinised by peers.

[Qston]

This time next year you could be a bouillonaire

Now that is the best pun seen on here for a long time.

 

[Elmo!]

Now that is the bisto pun seen on here for a long time.

 

FTFY

[Iska]

This should be called the Trump recession. He pushed for low taxes and low interest rates during the good times and didn't have these tools when the crap hit the fan.

That was entirely in character to be fair, the guy was bankrupted six times.

I do wish the next question at his press conference had been not ’isn't calling it the Chinese virus racist?’, but ‘Are you calling it ‘the Chinese virus’ to divert attention from The Trump Recession?’

[kloppismydad]

Qantas suspend International Flights from the end of the month until June

https://www.qantas.com/sg/en/travel-info/travel-updates/coronavirus.html

Indigo, India's largest airline, has cut salary of all employees except the lowest two levels by upto 25%. They are fighting for survival.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/coronavirus-indigo-cuts-salary-of-all-employees-11584606669617.html

[conman]

[Red Beret]

^^^ Betcha our fuel bills don't go down though.

When all this is over we're going to be in a crazy situation. So many tradespeople will be looking for work, and work will be there to be done. But will there actually be any money available to bridge the gap??

And that's just one section of the economy. Who can imagine what the rest will be like?

[CheshireDave]

I was so smug before all this kicked off with my BTC profit. Now it's been absolutely battered.

[conman]

I was so smug before all this kicked off with my BTC profit. Now it's been absolutely battered.

Patience.

[fowlermagic]

In regards to bailing out oil and gas companies how are they struggling already when many were reporting record profits for the last few years. Here is just a wee blurb I saw by quickly researching on Google

 "Net income for 43 U.S. oil producers totaled $28 billion in 2018, a five-year high. Based on net income, 2018 was the most profitable year for these U.S. oil producers since 2013, despite crude oil prices that were lower in 2018 than in 2013 on an annual average basis."

or

"The five biggest oil companies earned a combined profit of $375 million per day"

So while prices may be down right now these cxxts can still make billions in profit in 2020 as once the dust settles they can charge what they want and its coming straight out of our pockets.

The companies that drill in the North Sea might not rank in the Top 5 around the world but they still deal in over a billion in revenue. I cannot see them struggling just because of the virus and there must be some other reasons they are on the edge of a cliff and this current crisis is just the final push.

[Elmo!]

I work in the oil and gas industry. If the oil price stays this low then the UK industry is gone, but the producers will keep the wells pumping at a loss for quite along time as if they plug them, often they won't be able to open the wells again.

My company are the biggest players in our particular niche of the market in the world, but its a niche that relies on a reasonably high oil price. Long term it doesn't look good for my job and our whole office.

[conman]

In regards to bailing out oil and gas companies how are they struggling already when many were reporting record profits for the last few years. Here is just a wee blurb I saw by quickly reseraching on Google

 "Net income for 43 U.S. oil producers totaled $28 billion in 2018, a five-year high. Based on net income, 2018 was the most profitable year for these U.S. oil producers since 2013, despite crude oil prices that were lower in 2018 than in 2013 on an annual average basis."

or

"The five biggest oil companies earned a combined profit of $375 million per day"

So while prices may be down right now these cxxts can still make billions in profit in 2020 as once the dust settles they can charge what they want and its coming straight out of our pockets.

I wonder have they been involved in stock buy backs like so many companies?

[Elmo!]

We never get much sympathy becasue everyone thinks anyone in the oil and gas industry is rich, but Aberdeen was decimated when the oil downturn came in 2014. People forget that the whole city is reliant on the industry, including taxi drivers, hotels etc. And even within the industry itself, not everone is earning a fortune.