Author Topic: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY  (Read 40430 times)

Offline Alan_X

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« on: March 8, 2020, 11:42:48 pm »
(Hinesy:)
This is a new thread that we'd like to keep to information and factual stuff only. Opinions and arguments and used tissues can go in the other thread....
ta



“Underlying health conditions” seems like a very broad umbrella term.

Have you read the NHS website?

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/common-questions/
« Last Edit: March 9, 2020, 12:13:29 pm by Hinesy »
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Offline mercury

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Re: Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1 on: March 9, 2020, 06:38:29 am »
Besides social distancing and regular hand sanitation, there are a couple of things you should really know:

1)  Symptoms of COVID-19

90 percent have fever

70 percent have dry coughs (no sputum)

30 percent have malaise, trouble breathing  (this is getting serious, as it means lung cells aplenty are getting infected)

Runny noses were only 4 percent.


2)  Get the test asap when there are symptoms

-  so that you get isolated and cut off from infecting others, especially people living with you, most likely your family and loved ones.

-  China's medical experts have said, more than one time, that early detection significantly improve the chances of recovery

Below is an NY Times interview with Dr. Bruce Aylward, leader of the W.H.O. investigation mission to China, which contains very useful information, including his view on the mortality rate.  A more digestable form of and contains a bit more details than the WHO report.

A crucial point (as have already pointed in this thread I think): 
the danger of COVID-19 is its being highly contagious -- early on when symptoms are not obvious and the patient not having a clue he's already got it, and novel.  There is no cure and our immune system does not recognize it.  Those in critical conditions relies on support measures such as ventilator and ECMO (a heart-lung machine which temporarily takes over the work of the heart and lungs, usually used in heart surgery) to pull them through (keep them alive, basically) until their own immune system figure out the virus and win the battle. 

So, suppose 1/10 of UK population, 6m get infected in a short period of time, and 5%  in severe or critical conditions, it would mean 300,000 patients would require a ventilator or an ECMO (there are not a lot around), not to mention the number of health professionals and other medical supplies needed to look after each patient.  The high mortality rate early on in Wuhan is really because of this:  the health system was overwhelmed.  They did not have enough of everything to look after the massive number of people getting infected and hospitals have to turn away patients (which made the matters worse for the city), until I think, in the second half of Feb, when the rest of the country stablized their own situation and start to send all health resources they can spare, en masse, to the province and the city,  including 40,000 health professionals.

By the way, Dr Aylward and China defines the severeness of the patient conditions as below:

“Mild” was a positive test, fever, cough — maybe even pneumonia, but not needing oxygen.

 “Severe” was breathing rate up and oxygen saturation down, so needing oxygen or a ventilator.

“Critical” was respiratory failure or multi-organ failure.

So mild is not really what you think as something similar to a cold.   

Everyone take care.   I'm from Hong Kong.

***

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html

Q&A 
Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus

Dr. Bruce Aylward, of the W.H.O., got a rare glimpse into Beijing’s campaign to stop the epidemic. Here’s what he saw.

By Donald G. McNeil Jr.
•   March 4, 2020  New York Times

As the leader of the World Health Organization team that visited China, Dr. Bruce Aylward feels he has been to the mountaintop — and has seen what’s possible.

During a two-week visit in early February, Dr. Aylward saw how China rapidly suppressed the coronavirus outbreak that had engulfed Wuhan, and was threatening the rest of the country.
New cases in China have dropped to about 200 a day, from more than 3,000 in early February. The numbers may rise again as China’s economy begins to revive. But for now, far more new cases are appearing elsewhere in the world.

China’s counterattack can be replicated, Dr. Aylward said, but it will require speed, money, imagination and political courage.

For countries that act quickly, containment is still possible “because we don’t have a global pandemic — we have outbreaks occurring globally,” he added.

Dr. Aylward, who has 30 years experience in fighting polio, Ebola and other global health emergencies, detailed in an interview with The New York Times how he thinks the campaign against the virus should be run.

This conversation has been edited and condensed.

Q:  Do we know what this virus’s lethality is? We hear some estimates that it’s close to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 2.5 percent of its victims, and others that it’s a little worse than the seasonal flu, which kills only 0.1 percent. How many cases are missed affects that.

A:  There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

Q:  That’s good, if there’s little asymptomatic transmission. But it’s bad in that it implies that the death rates we’ve seen — from 0.7 percent in parts of China to 5.8 percent in Wuhan — are correct, right?

I’ve heard it said that “the mortality rate is not so bad because there are actually way more mild cases.” Sorry — the same number of people that were dying, still die. The real case fatality rate is probably what it is outside Hubei Province, somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.

Q:  What about children? We know they are rarely hospitalized. But do they get infected? Do they infect their families?

We don’t know. That Guangdong survey also turned up almost no one under 20. Kids got flu, but not this. We have to do more studies to see if they get it and aren’t affected, and if they pass it to family members. But I asked dozens of doctors: Have you seen a chain of transmission where a child was the index case? The answer was no.

Q:  Why? There’s a theory that youngsters get the four known mild coronaviruses so often that they’re protected.

That’s still a theory. I couldn’t get enough people to agree to put it in the W.H.O. report.

Q:  Does that imply that closing schools is pointless?

No. That’s still a question mark. If a disease is dangerous, and you see clusters, you have to close schools. We know that causes problems, because as soon as you send kids home, half your work force has to stay home to take care of them. But you don’t take chances with children.

Q:  Are the cases in China really going down?

I know there’s suspicion, but at every testing clinic we went to, people would say, “It’s not like it was three weeks ago.” It peaked at 46,000 people asking for tests a day; when we left, it was 13,000. Hospitals had empty beds.

I didn’t see anything that suggested manipulation of numbers. A rapidly escalating outbreak has plateaued, and come down faster than would have been expected. Back of the envelope, it’s hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.

Q:  Is the virus infecting almost everyone, as you would expect a novel flu to?

No — 75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families. And only 5 to 15 percent of your close contacts develop disease. So they try to isolate you from your relatives as quickly as possible, and find everyone you had contact with in 48 hours before that.

Q:  You said different cities responded differently. How?

It depended on whether they had zero cases, sporadic ones, clusters or widespread transmission.

First, you have to make sure everyone knows the basics: hand-washing, masks, not shaking hands, what the symptoms are. Then, to find sporadic cases, they do fever checks everywhere, even stopping cars on highways to check everyone.

As soon as you find clusters, you shut schools, theaters, restaurants. Only Wuhan and the cities near it went into total lockdown.

Q:  How did the Chinese reorganize their medical response?

First, they moved 50 percent of all medical care online so people didn’t come in. Have you ever tried to reach your doctor on Friday night? Instead, you contacted one online. If you needed prescriptions like insulin or heart medications, they could prescribe and deliver it.

Q:  But if you thought you had coronavirus?

You would be sent to a fever clinic. They would take your temperature, your symptoms, medical history, ask where you’d traveled, your contact with anyone infected. They’d whip you through a CT scan …

Q:  Wait — “whip you through a CT scan”?

Each machine did maybe 200 a day. Five, 10 minutes a scan. Maybe even partial scans. A typical hospital in the West does one or two an hour. And not X-rays; they could come up normal, but a CT would show the “ground-glass opacities” they were looking for.

(Dr. Aylward was referring to lung abnormalities seen in coronavirus patients.)

Q:  And then?

If you were still a suspect case, you’d get swabbed. But a lot would be told, “You’re not Covid.” People would come in with colds, flu, runny noses. That’s not Covid. If you look at the symptoms, 90 percent have fever, 70 percent have dry coughs, 30 percent have malaise, trouble breathing. Runny noses were only 4 percent.

Q:  The swab was for a PCR test, right? How fast could they do that? Until recently, we were sending all of ours to Atlanta.

They got it down to four hours.

Q:  So people weren’t sent home?

No, they had to wait. You don’t want someone wandering around spreading virus.

Q:  If they were positive, what happened?

They’d be isolated. In Wuhan, in the beginning, it was 15 days from getting sick to hospitalization.
They got it down to two days from symptoms to isolation. That meant a lot fewer infected — you choke off this thing’s ability to find susceptibles.

Q:  What’s the difference between isolation and hospitalization?

With mild symptoms, you go to an isolation center. They were set up in gymnasiums, stadiums — up to 1,000 beds. But if you were severe or critical, you’d go straight to hospitals. Anyone with other illnesses or over age 65 would also go straight to hospitals.

Q:  What were mild, severe and critical? We think of “mild” as like a minor cold.

No. “Mild” was a positive test, fever, cough — maybe even pneumonia, but not needing oxygen. “Severe” was breathing rate up and oxygen saturation down, so needing oxygen or a ventilator.

“Critical” was respiratory failure or multi-organ failure.

Q:  So saying 80 percent of all cases are mild doesn’t mean what we thought.

I’m Canadian. This is the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does.

Q:  Hospitals were also separated?

Yes. The best hospitals were designated just for Covid, severe and critical. All elective surgeries were postponed. Patients were moved. Other hospitals were designated just for routine care: women still have to give birth, people still suffer trauma and heart attacks.

They built two new hospitals, and they rebuilt hospitals. If you had a long ward, they’d build a wall at the end with a window, so it was an isolation ward with “dirty” and “clean” zones. You’d go in, gown up, treat patients, and then go out the other way and de-gown. It was like an Ebola treatment unit, but without as much disinfection because it’s not body fluids.

Q:  How good were the severe and critical care?

China is really good at keeping people alive. Its hospitals looked better than some I see here in Switzerland. We’d ask, “How many ventilators do you have?” They’d say “50.” Wow! We’d say, “How many ECMOs?” They’d say “five.” The team member from the Robert Koch Institute said, “Five? In Germany, you get three, maybe. And just in Berlin.”

(ECMOs are extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines, which oxygenate the blood when the lungs fail.)

Q:  Who paid for all of this?

The government made it clear: testing is free. And if it was Covid-19, when your insurance ended, the state picked up everything.

In the U.S., that’s a barrier to speed. People think: “If I see my doctor, it’s going to cost me $100. If I end up in the I.C.U., what’s it going to cost me?” That’ll kill you. That’s what could wreak havoc. This is where universal health care coverage and security intersect. The U.S. has to think this through.

Q:  What about the nonmedical response?

It was nationwide. There was this tremendous sense of, “We’ve got to help Wuhan,” not “Wuhan got us into this.” Other provinces sent 40,000 medical workers, many of whom volunteered.

In Wuhan, our special train pulled in at night, and it was the saddest thing — the big intercity trains roar right through, with the blinds down.

We got off, and another group did. I said, “Hang on a minute, I thought we were the only ones allowed to get off.” They had these little jackets and a flag — it was a medical team from Guangdong coming in to help.

Q:  How did people in Wuhan eat if they had to stay indoors?

Fifteen million people had to order food online. It was delivered. Yes, there were some screw-ups. But one woman said to me: “Every now and again there’s something missing from a package, but I haven’t lost any weight.”

Q:  Lots of government employees were reassigned?

From all over society. A highway worker might take temperatures, deliver food or become a contact tracer. In one hospital, I met the woman teaching people how to gown up. I asked, “You’re the infection control expert?” No, she was a receptionist. She’d learned.

Q:  How did technology play a role?

They’re managing massive amounts of data, because they’re trying to trace every contact of 70,000 cases. When they closed the schools, really, just the buildings closed. The schooling moved online.
Contact tracers had on-screen forms. If you made a mistake, it flashed yellow. It was idiot-proof.

We went to Sichuan, which is vast but rural. They’d rolled out 5G. We were in the capital, at an emergency center with huge screens. They had a problem understanding one cluster. On one screen,they got the county headquarters. Still didn’t solve it.

So they got the field team. Here’s this poor team leader 500 kilometers away, and he gets a video call on his phone, and it’s the governor.

Q:  What about social media?

They had Weibo and Tencent and WeChat giving out accurate information to all users. You could have Facebook and Twitter and Instagram do that.

Q:  Isn’t all of this impossible in America?

Look, journalists are always saying: “Well, we can’t do this in our country.” There has to be a shift in mind-set to rapid response thinking. Are you just going to throw up your hands? There’s a real moral hazard in that, a judgment call on what you think of your vulnerable populations.

Ask yourself: Can you do the easy stuff? Can you isolate 100 patients? Can you trace 1,000 contacts? If you don’t, this will roar through a community.

Q:  Isn’t it possible only because China is an autocracy?

Journalists also say, “Well, they’re only acting out of fear of the government,” as if it’s some evil fire-breathing regime that eats babies. I talked to lots of people outside the system — in hotels, on trains, in the streets at night.

They’re mobilized, like in a war, and it’s fear of the virus that was driving them. They really saw themselves as on the front lines of protecting the rest of China. And the world.

Q:  China is restarting its economy now. How can it do that without creating a new wave of infections?

It’s a “phased restart.” It means different things in different provinces.

Some are keeping schools closed longer. Some are only letting factories that make things crucial to the supply chain open. For migrant workers who went home — well, Chengdu has 5 million migrant workers.

First, you have to see a doctor and get a certificate that you’re “no risk.” It’s good for three days.
Then you take the train to where you work. If it’s Beijing, you then have to self-quarantine for two weeks. Your temperature is monitored, sometimes by phone, sometimes by physical check.

Q:  What’s going on with the treatment clinical trials?

They’re double-blind trials, so I don’t know the results. We should know more in a couple of weeks.
The biggest challenge was enrolling people. The number of severe patients is dropping, and there’s competition for them. And every ward is run by a team from another province, so you have to negotiate with each one, make sure they’re doing the protocols right.

And there are 200 trials registered — too many. I told them: “You’ve got to prioritize things that have promising antiviral properties.”

Q:  And they’re testing traditional medicines?

Yes, but it’s a few standard formulations. It’s not some guy sitting at the end of the bed cooking up herbs. They think they have some fever-reducing or anti-inflammatory properties. Not antivirals, but it makes people feel better because they’re used to it.

Q:  What did you do to protect yourself?

A heap of hand-sanitizer. We wore masks, because it was government policy. We didn’t meet patients or contacts of patients or go into hospital dirty zones.

And we were socially distant. We sat one per row on the bus. We ate meals in our hotel rooms or else one person per table. In conference rooms, we sat one per table and used microphones or shouted at each other.

That’s why I’m so hoarse. But I was tested, and I know I don’t have Covid.
« Last Edit: March 9, 2020, 06:45:40 am by mercury »

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Re: Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2 on: March 9, 2020, 11:27:54 am »
https://www.bbc.com/sport/51777154

Coronavirus: British sporting events to continue as normal, says Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden

Sporting events in Britain are unlikely to be affected by coronavirus in the immediate future, says Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden.

Governing bodies and broadcasters will meet with government officials later on Monday to discuss the staging of events behind closed doors if the outbreak worsens and mass gatherings are banned.

Dowden told BBC Radio 5 Live: "At this stage we're not in the territory of cancelling or postponing events."

He added fans should not be barred.

"I was at Twickenham [for England v Wales] with the Prime Minister [on Saturday]," he said. "There was a huge crowd of people there. There is no reason why people should not be going to those events. It is very premature to be talking about things like that."

Dowden did add that the advice was based on the current guidance issued by the medical experts.

He added: "That is why I asked the chief medical officer to brief the sporting bodies last week and that is why we will be driven by the advice of the chief medical officer as we continue.

"I do want to emphasise in relation to sporting events, any talk of cancellation is very premature indeed. At the moment there is no evidence to suggest we should be doing that and we don't have any plans to."

However, Andy Holt, the owner of League One side Accrington, said he was concerned about the current situation and that consideration should be given to pausing the football season.

"I think we need to get on top of it," he told BBC Radio Four's Today programme, and added there would be "long-term financial ramifications" for his club if fans contracted the disease.

"I would be considering pausing the season until we know exactly where this is going and get a grip on it.

"I am walking round our club at the weekend and there are 3,000 fans there - I am worried that inviting them altogether at our place is actually putting them in danger."

Three people have died in Britain from the virus so far and 278 people have tested positive as of Sunday.

Italy has ordered all major sporting events throughout the country to be played without fans for one month in a bid to curb Europe's worst coronavirus outbreak, while the upcoming Italy v England Six Nations match in Rome has been postponed.

It was also announced on Sunday that fans will not be allowed to attend this month's Bahrain Grand Prix because of the outbreak.

Within football's Premier League there is a growing expectation that matches may have to be played behind closed doors within the next two weeks, depending on government advice.

Attendees are due to discuss logistics and feasibility as well as contracts and rights considerations.

The Premier League and EFL said pre-match handshakes between both teams and officials will not take place until further notice because of fears over the spread of coronavirus.

The measure came after the government asked the Premier League "to step up its contingency planning".

Several clubs have instructed players not to sign autographs or take selfies with fans.

On Sunday, European football's governing body Uefa told players and officials not to carry out pre-match handshakes in all its competitions until further notice.

IOC steps up coronavirus advice
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has stepped up its advice to sports federations on how to deal with the coronavirus.

In a letter seen by the BBC, the organisation's sports director Kit McConnell has written to the bodies to offer "further support".

Earlier this week, after an executive board meeting in Lausanne, IOC President Thomas Bach insisted he was confident this summer's Olympics in Tokyo would go ahead as planned.

McConnell tells the federations that the IOC is "committed to the success of Tokyo 2020".

And he says that "all potential solutions should be explored" if athletes are at risk of being prevented from competing in qualifying events.

"Keeping athletes informed remains critical in addressing the ongoing challenges of Covid-19," McConnell writes.

A host of Olympic qualifying events in a range of sports have been cancelled in recent weeks.

And some athletes from countries worst affected by the outbreak - such as China and Korea - have been barred from participating overseas because of travel restrictions or quarantine rules.

"If, despite all efforts, there is a significant risk to the full participation of teams or athletes in any Olympic qualification event... please bring this to our attention as early as possible and we will work with you to find appropriate solutions," McConnell tells the federations.

"In certain circumstances, there may be a need to review the current details of the qualification system.

"Where there may be health regulations or entry restrictions which could impact on athlete participation, all potential solutions should be explored.

"In some circumstances, we have seen permission being granted for exceptional entry for athletes from areas highly impacted by Covid-19 into countries hosting sporting events. We encourage you to explore possible solutions with your NF (national federation) and LOC (local organising committee)."

And in a sign of what athletes can perhaps expect at the Tokyo Games if they go ahead as planned, the international federations are told to work with local health authorities "to organise ongoing health screenings on site, including a temperature check for athletes and entourage upon arrival, pre-competition and during competition, and carry out Covid-19 tests for those individuals arriving from highly affected areas".

McConnell explains that other good practises include providing hand sanitisers and masks throughout the event, reminding athletes and entourage to maintain high levels of personal hygiene, including advice on hand washing and minimising physical contact, with increased medical personnel on site.

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #3 on: March 9, 2020, 12:14:01 pm »
Use this thread for up to date information and factual stuff only please.
ta
Yep.

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #4 on: March 9, 2020, 12:21:52 pm »
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/06/were-learning-a-lot-about-the-coronavirus-it-will-help-us-assess-risk/

It has been two months since China announced a previously unknown virus had been identified as the cause of a new outbreak in the city of Wuhan. In the weeks since then, the coronavirus — now called SARS-CoV2 — has raced around the globe, igniting major outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, Italy, Japan and now, it seems, Seattle.

There are still many, many questions about this virus and the disease it causes, Covid-19. But in a matter of mere weeks, a number of features of the disease have come into focus, through extraordinarily rapid sharing of research.

“Eight weeks into Covid-19, there’s quite a lot that we are learning,” Maria Van Kerkhove, who heads the World Health Organization’s emerging diseases and zoonoses unit, said in a recent interview. (Zoonoses are diseases that jump to people from animals.)

Kerkhove spoke to STAT after returning to the agency’s headquarters in Geneva after two weeks in China, where she was part of an international mission to learn about China’s response to its outbreak.

You can read the mission’s report (pdf file) on the WHO’s site. But interviews with Kerkhove and others help illuminate some of the most interesting findings. Of note: For now, they pertain to the outbreak in China. Some may change as the virus spreads to locations that use different approaches to try to limit its spread.

People are infectious really early in the course of their disease.

When the world saw a SARS outbreak in 2002-2003, one of the reasons it could be contained was because people were most infectious about seven days after they started to be sick — by which point they were generally already in isolation and their contacts were in quarantine. The same has been true in the case of some other related viruses. But Van Kerkhove said early studies on Covid-19 suggest people who have contracted the coronavirus are emitting, or “shedding,” infectious viruses very early on — in fact sometimes even before they develop symptoms.

“We do know from shedding studies that people can shed in the pre-symptomatic phase,” Van Kerkhove said, adding that while the data are still preliminary “it seems that people shed more in the early phases rather than the late phases of disease.”

If people can infect others before they know they themselves are ill, it makes it much more difficult to break the chains of transmission.

“If you are feeling a little bit unwell and you’re in your early stage of disease, you’re not necessarily in hospital. It takes a few days for you to develop more severe disease and you wouldn’t necessarily seek health care. So it does make sense in terms of what we’re seeing with the epidemiology” of the outbreak, Van Kerkhove said.

People can shed virus for weeks after they have recovered. But that doesn’t mean they are infectious.

There have been a number of studies that suggest Covid-19 patients may shed virus in stool or from their throats for some time after they’ve recovered. That naturally raises concerns about whether they are still infectious.

It’s too soon to draw that conclusion.

Testing for these viruses is based on what’s known as PCR — polymerase chain reaction. It’s a process that looks for tiny snippets of the genetic code of the virus in sputum from a throat or nasal swab, or in stool.

Finding that recovered patients are emitting virus fragments does not mean they are shedding whole viruses capable of infecting others. To determine if they are, scientists need to try to grow viruses from the sputum or stool of recovered Covid-19 patients, Van Kerkhove said.

The report from the WHO mission that traveled to China concluded that viable — i.e. potentially infectious — virus has been isolated from stool in some cases, but it questions whether that means much for spread of a virus that attacks the respiratory tract. Those mainly spread by coughs and sneezes.

Van Kerkhove said researchers should follow recovered patients over time to map out whether and how long they remain infectious, testing them at intervals of seven days, 14 days, and 21 days to see if they can grow virus from their sputum.

Truly asymptomatic Covid-19 infections are probably rare.

An early report on a cluster of cases in Germany caused a huge stir when the authors claimed a woman from China who was asymptomatic had infected several colleagues in Germany when she visited her company’s headquarters there.

It was later revealed the woman had had some symptoms while she was in Germany, but sloughed them off as jet lag. Despite that, the authors continue to describe her as having infected others before she became ill.

People infected with Covid-19 who are truly asymptomatic are rare, Van Kerkhove said. Studies in China estimate that about 1.2% of confirmed cases are asymptomatic. But Van Kerkhove said when the scientists on the WHO mission to China pressed for more detail, it became clear that most of the people who were first described as asymptomatic actually were pre-symptomatic — they’d been detected through contact tracing before their symptoms manifested.

“So, very, very few,” she said. “And [asymptomatic cases are] definitely not a major driver of transmission.”

People probably aren’t being re-infected after recovery.

There has been concern on social media about reports of people getting infected, recovering, and then later developing symptoms again. Some scientists from China have suggested the virus is able to re-infect people after a very short time.

Van Kerkhove said this probably is not what is happening. In fact, it would be unusual if an immune system that had just fought off a viral invader would forget how to recognize it and fend it off within a period of days or a few weeks.

What more likely, Van Kerkhove said is this: In order for hospitalized Covid-19 patients to be released after an infection they have to test negative for the virus twice, in tests conducted 24 hours apart. In some cases, people have had the two negative tests — but then tested positive again later.

Van Kerkhove said those results likely reflect more about the way the tests were conducted than about the status of the patient — how a throat swab was taken, for instance. “I don’t think that they’re actually truly negative and then they get re-infected again. It’s likely that they’re still positive for some time.”

Transmission in China happened among family members and close contacts. True “community spread” was less common.

“This virus is not circulating in the community, even in the highest incidence areas across China,” Van Kerkhove insisted.

What’s the difference between spread among close contacts and community spread, you might wonder? Van Kerkhove said the data the mission saw in China pointed to the virus finding its way into households and transmitting there. One family member gets infected and infects others. The “secondary attack rate” — the percentage of people in a household who got infected after someone brought the virus into the home — was between 3% and 10%.

Van Kerkhove said true community spread involves transmission where people get infected in a movie theater, on the subway, or walking down the street. There’s no way to trace back the source of infection because there’s no connection between the infected person and the person he or she infects. That’s not what the Chinese data show, she said.

Marc Lipsitch, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health, found this claim puzzling. “I have reached out to the World Health Organization to understand the basis of some of those statements. My perception is that there is significant community transmission, especially when you aren’t aware that someone is sick, because there’s not enough testing,” he said.

China’s Covid-19 outbreak isn’t driven by spread in hospitals.

The SARS outbreak mainly occurred in hospitals. Sick people who weren’t recognized as cases infected other patients nearby or the health workers looking after them. Large hospital outbreaks have also been a feature of MERS infections.

With this new disease, more than 2,000 health workers have become ill. But Van Kerkhove said it seems like most of them were infected at home — something she acknowledged came as a surprise.

“Given our experience with SARS and MERS, I was expecting that there would be large hospital outbreaks,” she said. “But even among the health care worker infections that have been reported to date, when they went back and did interviews with them and then looked at exposures, it’s likely that most of those exposures were in the community rather than in health care facilities.”

That pattern may not hold. With global supplies stretched thin of of N-95 respirators and other equipment needed to protect health workers, there is a real risk of shortages that could put the front line workers at risk, the WHO has warned.

China’s Covid-19 outbreak isn’t driven by spread in schools.

Children and teens make up a smaller proportion of China’s cases than adults do, accounting for just 2.1% of nearly 45,000 cases reported in a study from the China CDC. The WHO report said that in China, about 2.5% of children and teens who became infected developed severe disease and 0.2% developed critical disease. None of the infected children 9 and younger died; only one teenager succumbed to infection.

South Korea, which is grappling with an explosive outbreak, has likewise seen small numbers of infections in children and teens and no deaths in those age groups. Of 6,284 cases, only 0.7% were under the age of nine; 4.6% were ages 10 to 19. A bigger chunk of the total cases, 29.9%, were ages 20 to 29. Even in that age group, South Korea reported no deaths.

“Even when we looked at households, we did not find a single example of a child bringing the infection into the household and transmitting to the parents. It was the other way around,” Van Kerkhove said. “And the children tending to have mild disease.”

If that pattern holds true elsewhere, it would question the value of closing schools to slow spread. But that could happen regardless, if teachers fall ill or families are worried about letting their children attend school.

The big unknown: How deadly is this outbreak?

In order to answer that question you need to know how many people have been infected and how many have died. The assumption before the WHO-led team went to China was that there were probably mild cases that hadn’t come to light.

In the report, the team indicated it couldn’t find much evidence of undetected cases. But the only way the world will know for sure is when researchers start testing the blood of people who were not confirmed cases in places where the virus has circulated.

If they find antibodies to the virus in the blood of people who never made the case list, that will change the math. This week the WHO said the case fatality ratio currently looks like 3.4% — which is not a reassuring number.

Researchers have been working feverishly to develop the tests needed to do this kind of research. China has recently licensed a couple of serology tests and Singaporean researchers have developed one as well. More will come on board soon.

Any country or location that has cases should be conducting this type of research, Van Kerkhove said.

“These types of studies should be conducted now,” she said. “This is one of the major things that needs to be done now. And everywhere. Not just in China. In the U.S., in Italy, in Iran — that would give us a better understanding of where this virus is and if we’re truly missing a large number of cases,” she said.

“Until we have population based sero-surveys, we really don’t truly know.”
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And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline markedasred

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #5 on: March 9, 2020, 01:51:21 pm »
Radio5 just announced that after the COBRA meeting we are remaining in the containment phase, so no closing of sports stadia before their next meeting. Obviously great news for us, as long as we are careful.
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #6 on: March 9, 2020, 10:35:23 pm »
This is a regularly updated indexed column covering basic questions. It's intended for a US audience but is rigorously sourced by the author, a microbiologist by qualification. For those who favour towels, it's called 'Don't Panic'.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
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Yep.

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2020, 06:33:21 pm »
By now, all will have become familiar with the brilliant geographic information system (GIS) by Johns Hopkins public health uni, documenting the outbreak.

The UK has now developed a local GIS dashboard.

It's available through the link here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases

It's just gone live, so I imagine it's probably a bit of a work in progress
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 06:37:27 pm by Classycara »

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2020, 06:19:28 pm »
This is a regularly updated indexed column covering basic questions. It's intended for a US audience but is rigorously sourced by the author, a microbiologist by qualification. For those who favour towels, it's called 'Don't Panic'.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
Great resource. Thank you.

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2020, 11:00:37 pm »
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Time to act?

Extract:
........If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.

The more we postpone cases, the better the healthcare system can function, the lower the mortality rate, and the higher the share of the population that will be vaccinated before it gets infected.


How do we flatten the curve?

Social Distancing
There is one very simple thing that we can do and that works: social distancing.
If you go back to the Wuhan graph, you will remember that as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That’s because people didn’t interact with each other, and the virus didn’t spread.

The current scientific consensus is that this virus can be spread within 2 meters (6 feet) if somebody coughs. Otherwise, the droplets fall to the ground and don’t infect you.

The worst infection then becomes through surfaces: The virus survives for hours or days on different surfaces. If it behaves like the flu, it can survive for weeks on metal, ceramics and plastics. That means things like doorknobs, tables, or elevator buttons can be terrible infection vectors.
The only way to truly reduce that is with social distancing: Keeping people home as much as possible, for as long as possible until this recedes.
This has already been proven in the past. Namely, in the 1918 flu pandemic.........

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2020, 12:44:05 am »
Mind (UK mental health charity) have prepared some ideas on how to look after yourself if you need to self-isolate: https://www.mind.org.uk/information-support/coronavirus-and-your-wellbeing

In terms of planning ahead:

Checklist: are you ready to stay at home for two weeks?

Food: do you have a way to get food delivered?

Cleaning: are your cleaning supplies stocked up?

Money: can you budget for any higher bills or expenses? Will you save money from lower transport costs that you could spend elsewhere?

Work: can you work from home or not? If not, what are your rights to payment or benefits?

Medication: do you have enough medication, or a way to get more?

Health: can you reorganise any planned therapy or treatments?

Commitments: can someone else help you care for any dependents, walk your dog, or take care of any other commitments?

Connectivity: have you checked the contact details of the people you see regularly, like their phone numbers or email addresses?

Routine: can you create a routine or timetable for yourself? And if you live with other people, should you create a household schedule? Do you need to agree how the household will run with everyone at home all day?

Exercise: is there any physical activity you can do inside your home, such as going up and down the stairs, using bean tins as weights, or exercises you can do in your chair?

Nature: have you thought how you could access nature? Can you get some seeds and planting equipment, houseplants or living herbs?

Entertainment: have you thought about things to do, books to read or TV shows to watch?

Relax: have you got materials so you can do something creative, such as paper and colouring pencils?
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline 24/7

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2020, 10:34:38 am »
this is a good article.

A well written overview with graphs and time lines if that interests you. Good region by region analysis.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Two posts down, with extract...

Offline classycarra

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2020, 03:42:41 pm »
Two posts down, with extract...

Sorry to be annoying mods, can we take this Tomas Pueyo article down. Or maybe take the link off and leave something that makes it clear it's not credible so it's not accidentally posted again as it continues to circulate online.

It's well intentioned no doubt, and I'm sure has some messages that cross over with professional advice, but it's from a tech blogger who has over extrapolated from some very simple and ineffective statistical analysis that is not in line with infectious disease statistical practice

Some fair replies to his article discrediting it:
https://medium.com/@lucianampadua/hi-tomas-4689ebcb048b

And just pointing out his previous blogs are not epidemiological, let alone health related (ignore the stats comments - thanks Roger)
https://medium.com/@behrockz/i-dont-think-you-know-what-exponential-growth-is-d43dd66e2d55
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 04:32:10 pm by Classycara »

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2020, 04:59:06 pm »
Latest NHS Guidance can be found here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

(Correct as of posting date and today's announcement)
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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2020, 06:46:33 pm »
Also worth signposting other guidance published by the government

This one especially for employers, employees and businesses
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-to-employers-and-businesses-about-covid-19

But there's a whole host of publications available from here
https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2020, 08:27:23 pm »
Sorry to be annoying mods, can we take this Tomas Pueyo article down.
It's not annoying - although I prefer to err on the side of variety of sources so we can make our own minds up. Thank you for posting the link to comments that you say discredit. This allows RAWKites to look at both sides and decided for ourselves what is 'right' for us. For that, I'm grateful :)

The only sources I personally would 'ban' are the usual, obvious ones ;)

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2020, 09:00:28 pm »
It's not annoying - although I prefer to err on the side of variety of sources so we can make our own minds up. Thank you for posting the link to comments that you say discredit. This allows RAWKites to look at both sides and decided for ourselves what is 'right' for us. For that, I'm grateful :)

The only sources I personally would 'ban' are the usual, obvious ones ;)

OK but readers should know that the analysis isn't scientifically verified, and the widespread 'outbreak' of the article has contributed massively to misinforming the public (based on unqualified analysis of a single paper) that fundamentally misunderstands science behind modelling social distancing effective.

And with that we've seen on RAWK today, and in personal conversations, that the misuunderstanding largely spread by this sensationalist and hyperbolic blog post is eroding faith in the UK public health system. We don't tend to tolerate that from anti-vaccinators, personally would extend that to include people who are well-intentioned but wrong even if it hasn't been published in a tabloid paper.

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #18 on: March 12, 2020, 09:35:16 pm »
snip
Then you are providing a good, welcome and valuable perspective. Thank you! :wave

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2020, 12:29:05 pm »
I really highly recommend people who are understandably concerned and cautious about the UK government response take a moment away from the frenzy of messages, and listen to this ten minute interview with the UK's chief scientist Patrick Vallance. It's the best piece of clear and concise communication I think I've heard from a UK government representative so far, and has personally reassured me that the UK is responding to this threat in a calm, effective and evidence-based manner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g4fk

The interview starts at 2 hrs 11 mins 40 sec up to 2 hrs 21 mins 30 sec

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2020, 02:48:05 pm »
Newsnight segment where someone who is expert on trying to model how diseases spread explains what government here (and elsewhere, such as France) are trying to do and why.

"Don't behave as if you are trying to avoid catching it. Behave as if you're trying to avoid passing it on."

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/blkDulsgh3Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/blkDulsgh3Q</a>
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 02:50:46 pm by Zeb »
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2020, 05:44:30 pm »
The Coronavirus technical handbook.


The mother load of current research for doctors.

Amazing resource

https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/doctors
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“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2020, 04:46:44 am »
COVID-19 can last a few days on surfaces, according to new experiment findings

As scientists scramble to understand more about the novel coronavirus, a new government-funded experiment shows that the virus can survive on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days.

Though preliminary, the experiment emphasizes the importance of diligently sanitizing cellphones, plastic and metal surfaces regularly to prevent the spread of SARS-COVID-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

The study has not yet gone through the normal scientific peer review process, but outside experts nevertheless say it offers important new clues about the infectiousness of coronavirus.

The experiment was led by researchers from Princeton, UCLA and the National Institutes of Health. The researchers involved set out to learn how long the virus can survive when sprayed on different surfaces and in the air.

They found that the virus can survive up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, and up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to four hours on copper surfaces. In a second part of the experiment, the researchers used a spray can-like device to spritz the virus into the air and discovered that the virus can survive suspended in a fine mist for up to three hours, though longer times were not tested.

But the findings do not mean the virus is "airborne," according to one of the primary authors of the paper, Dylan Morris, a Ph.D candidate at Princeton. Morris cautioned that these aerosol findings must be interpreted carefully, since they may not apply to real-life settings, like on the train or in the office because the conditions created in the laboratory are not necessarily identical to conditions that would be created when someone coughs or sneezes. That’s because when someone coughs or sneezes, most of the droplets are heavy enough that they quickly fall to the ground.

However, Morris said the findings might be relevant in health care settings -- particularly for medical professionals caring for patients with COVID-19. Certain medical procedures , such as bronchoscopy and ventilation, can kick up a fine mist of viral particles similar to the conditions simulated during the experiment.

More research is needed to fully understand how long the virus can survive in the air under normal conditions. However, the research does strongly suggest that frequent and vigorous sanitizing of hard surfaces like phones, handles and doorknobs will go a long way in preventing the spread of the virus.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University who was not involved in the research, called this an "important study" which "demonstrates further how contagious this virus is."

Dr. Seema Yasmin, who specializes in epidemics at Stanford University, cautioned that more research is needed. "Even finding the virus surviving on a surface doesn't speak to its infectiousness,” she said. The study was performed in a petri dish, not in the human body, she noted.

"This is an area of rapid research, and I expect more studies to be coming through the pipeline," Morris noted.

Vinayak Kumar, MD, MBA is an Internal Medicine Resident at Mayo Clinic and is a contributor to the ABC NEWS Medical Unit. Sony Salzman is a journalist for the ABC NEWS Medical Unit.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid19-days-surfaces-experiment-findings/story?id=69569397&cid=clicksource_4380645_4_three_posts_card_hed




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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2020, 09:02:11 am »
This thread is well worth a read re our response vs other countries

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538?s=21
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Offline classycarra

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2020, 03:32:52 pm »
To be clear Tepid,nthat's our response vs Italy (and Hubei). Not all other countries. And also it's informed guesswork from somebody who works in antimicrobial resistance, not somebody who works in disease epidemiology.

These two twitter threads from a British researcher, expert in disease epidemiology and modelling, are great. Click the links to read the full threads:


The first one is clarifying what is informing the UK (and most other countries') disease modelling, from somebody who is not biased as they are not a representative of the UK government

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238418007824764930
@AdamJKucharski
How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've probably heard of Cobra, chaired by the PM, but there are two other steps worth knowing about... 1/


The second is an important demonstration of why this idea the UK is 'aiming for herd immunity' is incorrect and if people believed it it would be potentially harmful. We saw in the main thread yesterday that the understanding of building herd immunity was being misunderstood as literally the opposite of what it means.

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664
@AdamJKucharski
I am deeply uncomfortable with the message that UK is actively pursuing ‘herd immunity’ as the main COVID-19 strategy. Our group’s scenario modelling has focused on reducing two main things: peak healthcare demand and deaths... 1/



If you ever hear or read the phrase 'aiming for herd immunity' - perform this simple translation: it means 'aiming to keep people who catch coronavirus alive and well'.

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2020, 10:05:24 pm »
Dr. John Campbell's channel with a lot of informative videos. (Mods, move/delete if not suitable for this thread.)

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos
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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2020, 11:32:18 pm »
British national community groups seem to be coming together for the next few months. May be worth following the names on the poster if you're of a mind and able to volunteer.

Quote
Eden Project Communities have joined forces with leaders from different sectors to launch the Community Action Response to encourage everyone to do what they can to support their communities, and particularly vulnerable and isolated people during the Covid-19 crisis.

The Community Action Response has been created because of the unprecedented challenge that Covid-19 presents for people in every neighbourhood in the UK.  Together, we are calling for everyone to take steps that will help communities cope when the worst impacts of the virus hit.



https://www.edenprojectcommunities.com/community-action-response
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And your money will have bought you nothing."

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2020, 03:24:22 am »
Found this recent podcast to be very practical and informative. Hope it "fits the brief" for this thread!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm   1hr 43 mins

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

DISCUSSION TOPICS WITH TIME-STAMPS: (Below)


  • 0:32 - The seriousness and projected timeline of the current Coronavirus outbreak
  • 4:09 - Age and other risk factors in the outcome of the disease
  • 5:27 - Incubation period and contagion
  • 6:36 - Pandemic timing forecast
  • 7:54 - Effective protection and myths
  • 10:02 - Coronavirus infection among children
  • 12:12 - SARS, MERS, and flu
  • 12:54 - Medical preparedness
  • 15:25 - Sauna’s effectiveness against infectious diseases
  • 18:04 - Is COVID-19 a bio-weapon
  • 21:05 - Chronic wasting among the deer population and “Mad cow” disease
  • 31:46 - Seasonality and outlook of Coronavirus epidemics compared to a flu outbreak
  • 36:57 - The Spanish Flu
  • 38:35 - Shoring up the immune system and personal prevention
  • 46:31 - Healthcare workers’ protection
  • 51:14 - Vaccines
  • 52:52 - The market reaction to the current outbreak
  • 54:49 - Meningitis, measles, and anti-vaxxers
  • 1:02:06 - Chinese food supply and the wet markets
  • 1:08:52 - Influenza pandemics and flu vaccine
  • 1:11:11- Preventing the flu
  • 1:12:48 - Benefits of probiotics and fecal transplants
  • 1:15:47 - Ticks and Lyme disease, changing wildlife and vegetation in the North-East U.S.
  • 1:29:42 - Recap
YNWA

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #28 on: March 15, 2020, 10:21:43 am »
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/   (Updated)


Overview - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Contents

    Overview
    Stay at home advice

COVID-19 is a new illness that can affect your lungs and airways. It's caused by a virus called coronavirus.
Stay at home if you have coronavirus symptoms

Stay at home if you have either:

    a high temperature – you feel hot to touch on your chest or back
    a new, continuous cough – this means you've started coughing repeatedly

Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.

You do not need to contact 111 to tell them you're staying at home.

Testing for coronavirus is not needed if you're staying at home.

How long to stay at home

    if you have symptoms, stay at home for 7 days
    if you live with other people, they should stay at home for 14 days from the day the first person got symptoms

If you live with someone who is 70 or over, has a long-term condition, is pregnant or has a weakened immune system, try to find somewhere else for them to stay for 14 days.

If you have to stay at home together, try to keep away from each other as much as possible.

Read our advice about staying at home.
Urgent advice: Use the NHS 111 online coronavirus service if:

    you feel you cannot cope with your symptoms at home
    your condition gets worse
    your symptoms do not get better after 7 days

Use the 111 coronavirus service

Only call 111 if you cannot get help online.
How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing)

Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.

It is particularly important for people who:

    are 70 or over
    have a long-term condition
    are pregnant
    have a weakened immune system

Do

wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds

always wash your hands when you get home or into work

use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available

cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze

put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards

avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus

only travel on public transport if you need to

work from home, if you can

avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas

avoid events with large groups of people

    use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services

Don't

do not touch your eyes, nose or mouth if your hands are not clean

    do not have visitors to your home, including friends and family

The NHS will contact you from Monday 23 March 2020 if you are at particularly high risk of getting seriously ill with coronavirus. You'll be given specific advice about what to do.

Do not contact your GP or healthcare team at this stage – wait to be contacted.
Who is at risk?
How coronavirus is spread

Because it's a new illness, we do not know exactly how coronavirus spreads from person to person.

Similar viruses are spread in cough droplets.

It's very unlikely it can be spread through things like packages or food.
Travel advice

There are some countries and areas where there's a higher chance of coming into contact with someone with coronavirus.

If you're planning to travel abroad and are concerned about coronavirus, see advice for travellers on GOV.UK.
Treatment for coronavirus

There is currently no specific treatment for coronavirus.

Antibiotics do not help, as they do not work against viruses.

Treatment aims to relieve the symptoms while your body fights the illness.

You'll need to stay in isolation, away from other people, until you have recovered.
More information

    GOV.UK: coronavirus action plan
    GOV.UK: information on coronavirus and the situation in the UK
    NHS England: coronavirus for health professionals
    Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG): coronavirus advice for pregnant women

« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 10:19:16 am by Andy @ Allerton »
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Zeb

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #29 on: March 16, 2020, 03:35:59 pm »
Nice article from Beeb on looking after your mental health. Someone posted the WHO recommendations on the main thread, but there's a fair bit more on here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51873799

Quote
AnxietyUK suggests practising the "Apple" technique to deal with anxiety and worries.

Acknowledge: Notice and acknowledge the uncertainty as it comes to mind.

Pause: Don't react as you normally do. Don't react at all. Pause and breathe.

Pull back: Tell yourself this is just the worry talking, and this apparent need for certainty is not helpful and not necessary. It is only a thought or feeling. Don't believe everything you think. Thoughts are not statements or facts.

Let go: Let go of the thought or feeling. It will pass. You don't have to respond to them. You might imagine them floating away in a bubble or cloud.

Explore: Explore the present moment, because right now, in this moment, all is well. Notice your breathing and the sensations of your breathing. Notice the ground beneath you. Look around and notice what you see, what you hear, what you can touch, what you can smell. Right now. Then shift your focus of attention to something else - on what you need to do, on what you were doing before you noticed the worry, or do something else - mindfully with your full attention.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline Zeb

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #30 on: March 16, 2020, 10:39:18 pm »
Government's advice on social distancing can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

I'll post who they mean to follow it all the same.

Quote
We are advising those who are at increased risk of severe illness from coronavirus (COVID-19) to be particularly stringent in following social distancing measures.
This group includes those who are:

aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)

under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):

chronic (long-term) respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy
diabetes
problems with your spleen – for example, sickle cell disease or if you have had your spleen removed
a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets or chemotherapy
being seriously overweight (a BMI of 40 or above)
those who are pregnant

Note: there are some clinical conditions which put people at even higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19. If you are in this category, next week the NHS in England will directly contact you with advice the more stringent measures you should take in order to keep yourself and others safe. For now, you should rigorously follow the social distancing advice in full, outlined below.

People falling into this group are those who may be at particular risk due to complex health problems such as:

People who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
People with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
People with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
People with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
People with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Online kavah

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2020, 06:18:24 am »
The report from Imperial college driving the U.S strategy as reported in The NY Times

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand

On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Imperial College London

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Offline 24/7

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2020, 07:41:32 pm »
Ouch. And it starts......

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51930681

Coronavirus: Israel enables emergency spy powers

The Israeli government has approved emergency measures for its security agencies to track the mobile-phone data of people with suspected coronavirus.

The new powers will be used to enforce quarantine and warn those who may have come into contact with infected people.

The temporary laws were passed during an overnight sitting of the cabinet, bypassing parliamentary approval.

The Association for Civil Rights in Israel called the move "a dangerous precedent and a slippery slope".

Such powers are usually reserved for counter-terrorism operations.

Details of how the "cyber-monitoring" will work were not disclosed but it is understood the location data collected through telecommunication companies by Shin Bet, the domestic security agency, will be shared with health officials.

Once an individual is highlighted as a possible coronavirus case, the health ministry will then be able to track whether or not they are adhering to quarantine rules.

It can also send a text message to people who may have come into contact with them before symptoms emerged.

The head of the justice system said the move would save lives, while Israel's prime minister said it struck a balance between public-health needs and civil rights.

Israel is still in the relatively early stages of the pandemic - and many ordinary Israelis are used to complying with measures they see as important for their security.

But this is a public health threat, not a security one.

The ultimate test of bolstering the powers of surveillance agencies will lie in their longer term effectiveness: whether they can slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Some are uneasy.

In an often tense and divided region, increasingly parts of the security infrastructure are doubling up as tools of public-health enforcement by both Israeli and Palestinian authorities.

The scale and duration of the health and economic crises may strain that situation.

Israel has confirmed more than 300 cases of the virus and imposed a series of other measures to stop the spread.

They include closing schools, shopping centres, restaurants and most places of leisure, as well as limiting gatherings to 10 people.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the new powers will last for 30 days only.

Speaking ahead of the vote, he said: "Israel is a democracy and we must maintain the balance between civil rights and the public's needs.

"These tools will very much assist us in locating the sick and stopping the virus from spreading."

Although it is shrouded in secrecy, other countries are believed to collect data from mobile phones to be used in mass-surveillance programmes or in specific criminal investigations that require case-by-case legal permission.

China's sophisticated mass surveillance system is also being used to keep a tab on infected individuals.

Tencent, the company behind popular messaging app WeChat, has launched a QR-code-based tracking feature.

The "close contact detector" app notifies the user if they have been in close contact with a virus carrier and enforce quarantines.

In South Korea, similar technology has been criticised for an invasion of privacy as some people were accused of having extramarital affairs based on their location data being made public.

Offline 24/7

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2020, 07:50:14 pm »
Meanwhile, some potentially good news from Oz.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51921403

Coronavirus: Australian scientists map how immune system fights virus

Scientists in Australia say they have identified how the body's immune system fights the Covid-19 virus.

Their research, published in Nature Medicine journal on Tuesday, shows people are recovering from the new virus like they would from the flu.

Determining which immune cells are appearing should also help with vaccine development, experts say.

Globally, authorities have confirmed more than 160,000 cases of the coronavirus and about 6,500 deaths.

"This [discovery] is important because it is the first time where we are really understanding how our immune system fights novel coronavirus," said study co-author Prof Katherine Kedzierska.

The research by Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity has been praised by other experts, with one calling it "a breakthrough".

What has been found?

Many people have recovered from Covid-19, meaning it was already known that the immune system can successfully fight the virus.

But for the first time, the research identified four types of immune cells which presented to fight Covid-19.

They were observed by tracking a patient who had a mild-to-moderate case of the virus and no previous health issues.

The 47-year-old woman from Wuhan, China, had presented to hospital in Australia. She recovered within 14 days.

Prof Kedzierska told the BBC her team had examined the "whole breadth of the immune response" in this patient.

Three days before the woman began to improve, specific cells were spotted in her bloodstream. In influenza patients, these same cells also appear around this time before recovery, Prof Kedzierska said.

"We were very excited about our results - and the fact that we could actually capture the emergence of immune cells in the infected patient prior to clinical improvement," she told the BBC.

More than a dozen scientists worked around the clock for four weeks to deliver the analysis, she added.

How does this help?

Identifying when the immune cells kick in can help "predict the course of the virus", said Prof Bruce Thompson, dean of health sciences at Swinburne University of Technology.

"When you know when the various responses take place you can predict where you are in the recovery of the virus," Prof Thompson told the BBC.

Australia's Health Minister Greg Hunt said the finding could also help "fast-track" a vaccine and potential treatments for infected patients.

Prof Kedzierska said the next step for scientists was to determine why the immune response was weaker in worse cases.

"It is really key now to understand what is lacking or different in patients who have died or who have really severe disease - so we can understand how to protect them," she said.

In January, the institute became the first in the world to recreate the virus outside of China.

The centre has since received additional funding from the Australian government as well as donations from businesses and Chinese billionaire Jack Ma.

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #34 on: March 17, 2020, 09:30:18 pm »
Some help for the self employed.

HMRC have just set up a help line specifically for the self employed and businesses who will be struggling now due to the you know what [emoji3083].

The Coronavirus helpline : 0300 456 3565

Apparently they will give you advice on your tax and any benefits you can claim for. I’m not ashamed to be calling them today and neither should any of you.

Hope we can all get through this ok together

Please share to all self employed.

Copy and pasted from someone else.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


Offline Zeb

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2020, 09:07:34 am »
Nice explanation of the social distancing advice and who it applies to.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/E9jIaAfehdk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/E9jIaAfehdk</a>

"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline stevo7

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #36 on: March 18, 2020, 10:50:53 am »
I hope I can pose a question, which might sound stupid. If higher temps 'kills' the virus sooner. Should we just ramp up heating in our homes?

Offline Zeb

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #37 on: March 18, 2020, 11:09:39 am »
I hope I can pose a question, which might sound stupid. If higher temps 'kills' the virus sooner. Should we just ramp up heating in our homes?

Don't think there's any evidence for that with this one yet? A related virus, SARS, could be killed by heat but it needed to be 56 C+, so probably not of much use to you. It *might* be that as summer comes through that it slows down in spreading but every time that gets mentioned to a virologist they don't sound convinced that it will. (BBC on temperatures to kill viruses on a surface and an epidemiologist on why summer coming may not mean this thing goes)
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

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Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #38 on: March 18, 2020, 12:10:55 pm »
Your blood is urgently needed!

The American Red Cross is making pleas for blood donations. I'm sure it is the same around the world.

"The American Red Cross is closely monitoring the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and supporting public health agencies to help communities prepare.

Right now, American Red Cross faces a severe blood shortage due to an unprecedented number of blood drive cancellations during this coronavirus outbreak. Healthy individuals are needed to donate now to help patients counting on lifesaving blood, platelets or AB Elite plasma.

The Red Cross also urges organizations to maintain scheduled blood drives. Donating is a safe process and people should not hesitate to give or receive blood or platelets. We have implemented additional precautions to ensure safety of our donors and staff.

This blood shortage could impact patients who need surgery, victims of car accidents and other emergencies, or patients fighting cancer. One of the most important things you can do to ensure we don’t have another health care crisis on top of coronavirus is to give now."

More info on blood donation safety, etc here: https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/coronavirus--covid-19--and-blood-donation.html

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Re: Re: COVID-19 FACTS and INFO ONLY
« Reply #39 on: March 18, 2020, 12:31:58 pm »
if you haven't read it and live in the UK. I suggest reading this, its the plan the government are working to:

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


apologies . just seen it posted above but it really is essential reading.