Author Topic: General political discussion Part II  (Read 99847 times)

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It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #122 on: September 19, 2019, 12:22:34 am »
:shocked This is getting weird.
i mean those having a go at the Lib Dem position compared to Jezzas ‘referendum and I won’t show any leadership’ have a bit of egg on their face right now

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #124 on: September 19, 2019, 12:25:29 am »
Looks like people don't agree with Caroline Lucas' Tweet.
yup, and she did an interview with the little shit in the guardian having a go at the Lib Dem’s over this, ah well

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #125 on: September 19, 2019, 12:31:52 am »
i mean those having a go at the Lib Dem position compared to Jezzas ‘referendum and I won’t show any leadership’ have a bit of egg on their face right now
I thought both parties had messed up to be honest. I can only assume many ex Labour voters haven't followed the Lib Dem conference this week but they are aware of Labours new GE stance.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #126 on: September 19, 2019, 12:39:28 am »
I thought both parties had messed up to be honest. I can only assume many ex Labour voters haven't followed the Lib Dem conference this week but they are aware of Labours new GE stance.

The Lib Dems policy change got a decent level of attention from the media. It was the top story on the BBC over the weekend, and both ITV and Sky had reporters broadcasting live from conference. I find it hard to believe that anyone with even a moderate interest in politics would have become aware of the news about Labour's policy, but not the Lib Dems.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 12:42:56 am by ShakaHislop »

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #127 on: September 19, 2019, 12:45:10 am »
The Lib Dems policy change got pretty decent media coverage. It was the top story on the BBC over the weekend, and both ITV and Sky had reporters broadcasting live from conference. I find it hard to believe that anyone with an even moderate interest in politics would have become aware of the news about Labour's policy, but not the Lib Dems.
Yeah, maybe i read too much into it but what type of Labour voters are the Lib Dems trying to win over,it's not the Corbyn supporters, it's the New Labour type supporter who have walked away in disgust, yet they all sing f... die Tony Blair. thought that was really stupid.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Zeb

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #128 on: September 19, 2019, 02:18:41 am »
Yeah, maybe i read too much into it but what type of Labour voters are the Lib Dems trying to win over,it's not the Corbyn supporters, it's the New Labour type supporter who have walked away in disgust, yet they all sing f... die Tony Blair. thought that was really stupid.

Most won't have heard of it - and of those who do, how many will truly care enough to reconsider on Johnson and Corbyn? Lot of those 2017 Labour voters moving over voted Lib Dem in 2010 and 2015 to start with. Half the population still hasn't a clue who Jo Swinson is, perhaps other than someone Corbyn and Johnson attack for being too pro-EU. All very volatile but showing what we've talked about on here for a couple of years now. Lib Dems will celebrate a successful conference and hope they can roll on from it into being able to get more air time during a general election.
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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #129 on: September 19, 2019, 02:42:40 am »
Most won't have heard of it - and of those who do, how many will truly care enough to reconsider on Johnson and Corbyn? Lot of those 2017 Labour voters moving over voted Lib Dem in 2010 and 2015 to start with. Half the population still hasn't a clue who Jo Swinson is, perhaps other than someone Corbyn and Johnson attack for being too pro-EU. All very volatile but showing what we've talked about on here for a couple of years now. Lib Dems will celebrate a successful conference and hope they can roll on from it into being able to get more air time during a general election.
Moved over in 2010 because of Iraq ? that would explain the chanting but It's all about what's happened since the referendum for most people.
Yeah see what you mean about Swanson, unknown to many people but she has got baggage, her voting record in particular, mind you that seems unimportant to most people right now and I would be a hypocrite to criticise them.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Zeb

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #130 on: September 19, 2019, 02:56:05 am »
Moved over in 2010 because of Iraq ? that would explain the chanting but It's all about what's happened since the referendum for most people.
Yeah see what you mean about Swanson, unknown to many people but she has got baggage, her voting record in particular, mind you that seems unimportant to most people right now and I would be a hypocrite to criticise them.

Don't know about intentions behind the movement to Lib Dems in 2010, just that it happened and what is showing up in where those voters are at now. Think the problem for Labour, in particular, is that some attack lines only reinforce Swinson as a viable opponent and strengthen the message she wants voters to hear. At the same time, other attacks just don't get any purchase as the Lib Dems tacked to their Social Democrat wing in their 2017 manifesto and Swinson was the most junior of junior ministers in the coalition. Like you say, Brexit is top of the agenda and a lot of voters aren't judging things against austerity but against whether they want Johnson or Corbyn or A.N.Other as PM.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #131 on: September 19, 2019, 03:11:31 am »
Don't know about intentions behind the movement to Lib Dems in 2010, just that it happened and what is showing up in where those voters are at now. Think the problem for Labour, in particular, is that some attack lines only reinforce Swinson as a viable opponent and strengthen the message she wants voters to hear. At the same time, other attacks just don't get any purchase as the Lib Dems tacked to their Social Democrat wing in their 2017 manifesto and Swinson was the most junior of junior ministers in the coalition. Like you say, Brexit is top of the agenda and a lot of voters aren't judging things against austerity but against whether they want Johnson or Corbyn or A.N.Other as PM.
I would of thought the F..off and die chants explains why many Labour voters moved to the Lib Dems am mystified why they choose to chant this now when they are trying to win over many of the ex Labour voters who liked Blair. I expected the Lib Dem poll to drop.
The stance change to revoke must have had a bigger impact I imagine. it looked like a bad move to me but things are so unpredictable right now.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Zeb

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #132 on: September 19, 2019, 03:53:29 am »
I would of thought the F..off and die chants explains why many Labour voters moved to the Lib Dems am mystified why they choose to chant this now when they are trying to win over many of the ex Labour voters who liked Blair. I expected the Lib Dem poll to drop.
The stance change to revoke must have had a bigger impact I imagine. it looked like a bad move to me but things are so unpredictable right now.

Give it a couple of weeks and it'll drop again. ;D This whole situation has been building up for a few years. Whether it clicks back to something like 2017 or whether it stays fragmented during a general election, isn't it? Paula Surridge's work is good on it. Her view is that conditions are there for Lib Dems to get 2010 results and Brexit Party to get UKIP's 2015 ones, at the same time and with deeply weird potential effects for an election. Not saying it'll happen, just that our politics continues to fragment away from a straight left/right split.

Think the song thing may have got more purchase if it were their entire conference singing it rather than a few at an event intended to be rude about everyone, including other Lib Dems. Kind of hard for Corbynistas to clutch their pearls about views on Blair given their track record on collegiality, and a few tuts over behaviour from former Blairites isn't the thing it once was either.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline BOBSCOUSE

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #133 on: September 19, 2019, 07:10:30 am »
yup, and she did an interview with the little shit in the guardian having a go at the Lib Dem’s over this, ah well

A bit bleary eyed this morning - I read that as yup, she did a little shit in the garden, ah well

Gonna be a long day.
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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #134 on: September 19, 2019, 07:24:19 am »
I wouldn't read too much into that poll just yet - fairly usual for a party to get a post conference bump, and could be mostly margin of error fluctuations.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #135 on: September 19, 2019, 07:48:02 am »
Give it a couple of weeks and it'll drop again. ;D This whole situation has been building up for a few years. Whether it clicks back to something like 2017 or whether it stays fragmented during a general election, isn't it? Paula Surridge's work is good on it. Her view is that conditions are there for Lib Dems to get 2010 results and Brexit Party to get UKIP's 2015 ones, at the same time and with deeply weird potential effects for an election. Not saying it'll happen, just that our politics continues to fragment away from a straight left/right split.


So do I infer the Brexit party vote weakens the Tories? Seeing the polls, I tend to add the Brexit vote to the Tory one and assume they'd scrape into government together but that's an unsophisticated, non-statty person's response.

Offline TepidT2O

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #136 on: September 19, 2019, 08:52:27 am »
I wouldn't read too much into that poll just yet - fairly usual for a party to get a post conference bump, and could be mostly margin of error fluctuations.
I didn’t realise that they’d had their conference...

It either wasn’t publicised well or I’ve been incredibly busy (which is probably the case)

The polls seem a bit desperate at the moment, some odd variances
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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #137 on: September 19, 2019, 09:17:40 am »
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1174460457081548802?s=21

Oh.

41% of 2016 Remain voters backing Libe Dems, up 8 points in a week.

No prizes for guessing what is driving that.

Offline Zeb

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #138 on: September 19, 2019, 09:43:14 am »
So do I infer the Brexit party vote weakens the Tories? Seeing the polls, I tend to add the Brexit vote to the Tory one and assume they'd scrape into government together but that's an unsophisticated, non-statty person's response.

Rough rule of thumb I've been given is that 15%ish is the mark where Brexit Party vote causes havoc for the Tories. Under 10% is where the Tories will feel like they're on course for a sizable majority. Brexit Party are a fair distance away from being able to win fair numbers of seats themselves (issue UKIP had in 2015 - 1 seat, 12.6% of the vote) but nobble the Tories by turning large majorities in the south into potential marginals for an opposition on the up and by making the whole strategy of trying to win over seats in the midlands and north much less likely to succeed. Closer Tories get squeezed back to 20% and Labour stay around the same mark, before or during a general election campaign, the more likely that the election will be a coin toss across 200+ constituencies.

edit: this was done by a former May advisor while he kicked his heels as she was on the way out of the door, gives a useful guide to how fragmentation plays with seats won. https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2019/08/12/the-voting-system-drives-our-politicians-mad/

This assumes Lib Dems are on about 20% of the vote. Brexit Party vote share tracked along the bottom. Just to illustrate point rather than prediction etc.



« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 10:00:00 am by Zeb »
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline No666

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #139 on: September 19, 2019, 10:10:28 am »
Thanks, mate. Also impossible to quantify how a 'Vote Brexit, Get Corbyn' narrative in the press (bound to happen) will work on the numbers.

Offline Zeb

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #140 on: September 19, 2019, 10:30:56 am »
Thanks, mate. Also impossible to quantify how a 'Vote Brexit, Get Corbyn' narrative in the press (bound to happen) will work on the numbers.

Yeah, unknowables beyond count, and then add in where the voters switching are onto the general situation (eg Labour's vote is tall but very narrow now - huge majority gets you the same seat as a much smaller one, Tories' thinner but more evenly spread - which is why those charts show the danger of them getting obliterated by Frottage). Not sure if it's been rolled out yet or not but know Labour had been playing with 'different shades of blue' approach themselves to link Frottage and Johnson.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline TepidT2O

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #141 on: September 19, 2019, 10:59:54 am »
That article is fascinating..

Anything could happen in an election...
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Offline Circa1892

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #142 on: September 19, 2019, 11:39:49 am »
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1174460457081548802?s=21

Oh.

Ridiculous that the fact Labour won't take a position on Brexit is impacting on polls when they're the only party tackling the big issues of the day like whether to have Labour Students or whether to bring back Clause IV.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #143 on: September 19, 2019, 11:46:01 am »
Sorry I posted this in the Brexit thread but maybe more relevant here

For those actually interested in why pollsters might be showing very different results at present, this is a useful read

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10093

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #144 on: September 19, 2019, 12:06:44 pm »
Give it a couple of weeks and it'll drop again. ;D This whole situation has been building up for a few years. Whether it clicks back to something like 2017 or whether it stays fragmented during a general election, isn't it? Paula Surridge's work is good on it. Her view is that conditions are there for Lib Dems to get 2010 results and Brexit Party to get UKIP's 2015 ones, at the same time and with deeply weird potential effects for an election. Not saying it'll happen, just that our politics continues to fragment away from a straight left/right split.

Think the song thing may have got more purchase if it were their entire conference singing it rather than a few at an event intended to be rude about everyone, including other Lib Dems. Kind of hard for Corbynistas to clutch their pearls about views on Blair given their track record on collegiality, and a few tuts over behaviour from former Blairites isn't the thing it once was either.
Yeah am probably reading too much into it, a few idiots not the parties attitude.
I wish the parties could just find a way to work together for the next 6 months.get the referendum out the way.Johnson would probably go into the election campaigning to take us out.
I don't think he will be able to stir enough voters up to support bringing Brexit back after the country has just voted to remain, it might have the reverse effect, people would have had enough.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #145 on: September 19, 2019, 01:31:52 pm »
I wouldn't read too much into that poll just yet - fairly usual for a party to get a post conference bump, and could be mostly margin of error fluctuations.

Is it fairly usual to get a post conference bump after agreeing on a policy that was undemocratic, and ignorant of over 17m voters according to some high-profile figures?

For me, that's the big story about this poll. Not merely that the Lib Dems are in 2nd (that's happened before this year) but that they've jumped up to 2nd despite the criticism of their revoke policy.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #146 on: September 19, 2019, 01:53:27 pm »
Is it fairly usual to get a post conference bump after agreeing on a policy that was undemocratic, and ignorant of over 17m voters according to some high-profile figures?

For me, that's the big story about this poll. Not merely that the Lib Dems are in 2nd (that's happened before this year) but that they've jumped up to 2nd despite the criticism of their revoke policy.

Personally I would agree with that, the general tone from many on here and from other parties is that this was a significant mis-step from the LDs, but it doesn't seem to have hurt them yet, it also got them a bit of coverage which is probably the one thing they need most as the 3rd party in terms of vote share and 4th in terms of number of MPs

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #147 on: September 19, 2019, 02:38:10 pm »
Personally I would agree with that, the general tone from many on here and from other parties is that this was a significant mis-step from the LDs, but it doesn't seem to have hurt them yet, it also got them a bit of coverage which is probably the one thing they need most as the 3rd party in terms of vote share and 4th in terms of number of MPs

Indeed, it's all about ambition. For the Lib Dems, this was not a mis-step at all. Their aim is to increase their vote share and number of MPs, and not to win an election. In fact, they've already effectively pledged not to be in government after the election. As such, they can afford to openly alienate huge chunks of the population if it helps them maximise their votes among the rest. A party aiming to win an election and form a government can't afford to do this.

Offline bigbonedrawky

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #148 on: September 19, 2019, 02:54:43 pm »
Personally I would agree with that, the general tone from many on here and from other parties is that this was a significant mis-step from the LDs, but it doesn't seem to have hurt them yet, it also got them a bit of coverage which is probably the one thing they need most as the 3rd party in terms of vote share and 4th in terms of number of MPs
I don't think taking a revoke only stance was a mis step from the Libs PoV. it's the kind of promise you know you wont have to deliver but it'll hover up lots of votes and gain them some seats. But not enough to form a majority. Which leaves them looking at either another coalition for a Referendumb ( best case scenario )or them looking at a Tory majority and a Hard Tory Brexit.
or
They get a majority, they cut the gordian knot and we all live happily ever after...Stranger things have happened .
 
 

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #149 on: September 19, 2019, 03:35:30 pm »
Lib Dem campaign strategy is meant to be 40:40:140. 40 targets, 40 'would really like to win', 140 'see how it goes'. Labour's is likely to be 'which seats below a 10k majority can we afford to defend?'. (edit: for avoidance of doubt, not a snark about Labour. Just reality of dropping half your voters.)

edit 2: just to illustrate using a Tory example, from Ian Warren (who works on campaigns etc.). This is Dominic Raab's seat, Esher and Walton.



Huge Tory majority but if Tory Remainers are peeling off to Lib Dems and Labour Remainers are peeling off to Lib Dems...
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 03:46:01 pm by Zeb »
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #150 on: September 19, 2019, 08:14:26 pm »
Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right'

The fastest-growing terror threat in the UK comes from far-right extremism, police have said.

Neil Basu, the UK head of counter-terrorism, said seven of the 22 plots foiled since March 2017 have been linked to the ideology.

He said far-right terrorism had gone from 6% of the caseload two years ago to 10% today, adding: "It's small but it's my fastest-growing problem."

But, he said, the biggest threat still came from jihadists.

Mr Basu, Assistant Commissioner for the Metropolitan Police, said some of the right-wing plots they disrupted were "designed to kill people" - and methods mimicked those seen in jihadist attacks, with some even using Islamic State materials.

Speaking at a briefing on Thursday, Mr Basu said about 10% of around 800 live terror investigations were linked to right-wing extremism.

Children as young as 14 have been involved in extremist activity, the briefing was told.

He also said the government's terrorism-prevention programme, Prevent, which aims to stop people being radicalised, has seen referrals nearly doubling since 2015/16 to 18%.

"Despite the increases, right-wing terrorism remains a relatively small percentage of our overall demand, but when nearly a third of the plots foiled by police and security services since 2017 relate to right-wing ideology, it lays bare why we are taking this so seriously," he said.

"As a proportion of our overall threat it's definitely increasing, whereas the Islamist threat is staying the same, albeit at a very high level."

Mr Basu added young people and those with mental health issues were particularly vulnerable to becoming radicalised.

Last week white supremacist Vincent Fuller, 50, was jailed for 18 years and nine months for stabbing 19-year-old Bulgarian Dimitar Mihaylov in what a judge called a "terrorist act".

Three other right-wing activists are due to be sentenced in London and Leeds on Friday.

But Mr Basu said police "can't arrest ourselves out of this problem" and called on the public to come forward if they fear a friend or family member is becoming radicalised.

"I have been called ridiculously idealistic, but I believe more than ever that evil triumphs when good people do nothing," he said.

Asked whether the police's approach to right-wing threats has changed in recent years, he said: "I would say that some of the criticism that we did not look at white supremacist, right-wing violence as terrorism in the past is probably justified."

He said investigations into the banned group National Action "have broken that organisation".

National Action was proscribed in 2016, becoming the first neo-Nazi group to be outlawed under terrorism legislation.

The briefing was also told the threat comes from a "spectrum" of right-wing ideologies.

They range from far-right groups that are anti-immigration and anti-Islam and so-called white nationalists through to neo-Nazi white supremacists, such as National Action and its spin-offs, System Resistance Network and Sonnenkrieg Division.

Since last year the Security Service MI5 has been working closely with counter-terrorism police to tackle the threat.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49753325

Offline killer-heels

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #151 on: September 19, 2019, 10:20:59 pm »
So, Justin Tredeau.

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #152 on: September 19, 2019, 11:10:38 pm »
It doesn't explicitly propose that, but you can read between the lines.

Quote
NEW: A motion before Camberwell & Peckham CLP tonight proposes Labour stand *against* Harriet Harman at the next election, should she become Speaker. Motion below 👇



The motion was proposed by Nick Wrack (brother of FBU General Secretary, Matt) who stood against Harman in 2015 for TUSC, receiving 292 votes.

https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1174763898521694208

Quote
I've just sat through a Camberwell & Peckham constituency Labour party meeting where the members voted 26-22 in favour of a motion recommending Harriet Harmen withdraw from the contest as speaker (*this is not a typo). Apparently, she's not the right person for the role

https://twitter.com/JohnBatteson/status/1174796702634643459

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #153 on: September 19, 2019, 11:44:04 pm »

Offline Zeb

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #154 on: September 19, 2019, 11:49:24 pm »
It doesn't explicitly propose that, but you can read between the lines.

Thing I'm reading between the lines is they need to get off 'theyworkforyou' and have a think about why Jezza's glorious new government is always going to be two MPs down in votes.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #155 on: September 19, 2019, 11:50:52 pm »
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #156 on: September 19, 2019, 11:51:06 pm »
your current crush?

Good god no. But if he were, forget black face, he would have lost me when he said dont call it mankind.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #157 on: September 19, 2019, 11:52:12 pm »
Black-face pics.

He cannot recall how many either. He always was a try hard.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #158 on: September 19, 2019, 11:53:32 pm »
He cannot recall how many either. He always was a try hard.
He cannot recall how many either. He always was a try hard.
My wife had a soft spot for him; not anymore.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

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Re: General political discussion Part II
« Reply #159 on: September 20, 2019, 12:03:13 am »
My wife had a soft spot for him; not anymore.
Melania still loves him tho

Good god no. But if he were, forget black face, he would have lost me when he said dont call it mankind.
dont be woke kids, it just ain’t worth it