Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20  (Read 149692 times)

Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1280 on: February 4, 2020, 11:14:49 PM »
You tell him Iska.
Never mind him, I’ve found a W32 D1 L5 = 97 points sequence for Sunderland in 1891 to the end of 1892.  That’s right up there with the modern sides.

Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1281 on: February 4, 2020, 11:21:34 PM »
Never mind him, I’ve found a W32 D1 L5 = 97 points sequence for Sunderland in 1891 to the end of 1892.  That’s right up there with the modern sides.
You may not have noticed, but in your reply you quoted your own post... It appeared that you're arguing with yourself. ;)
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Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1282 on: February 5, 2020, 07:50:17 AM »
You may not have noticed, but in your reply you quoted your own post... It appeared that you're arguing with yourself. ;)
He started it.  I’ve been looking at other back-to-back champions for records which might yield a long winning run, but after that Sunderland side it looks really unlikely.  What I’d guess happened is that as the league caught on and crowds swelled, it became way harder for teams to win away from home.  The Wednesday back-to-back champions in 1929, for example, won the title with just 3 away wins from 21 games.  Hence our title-winning mantra of ‘win home, draw away’, because that really was a formula for beating everyone else.

So the really interesting question from that graph might be what happened in the 21st century to make away games easier?  Given that the first anomaly is Mourinho’s Chelsea I wonder whether, apart from the spending, his ceaseless moaning is part of what’s made this paradigm shift possible?  There were a few developments around that time - quieter stadiums, homogenised pitches, international breaks, the end of the Easter weekend - that removes randomness and hence all served to make forbidding away games that bit less difficult.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1283 on: February 5, 2020, 08:16:20 AM »
I think the games against Shrewsbury give the biggest clue...

Technical superiority is limited significantly by poor pitch quality.  It is a big reason why direct football was so successful (for many) for so long in this country.

There are other changes of course, like the use of analysts is far more refined now and all seater stadia has led to a reduction in the number of away matches that can intimidate even the best players. But I'd definitely put the biggest share of the shift onto the increased consistency in pitch quality.

Offline aussie_ox

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1284 on: February 7, 2020, 10:46:19 PM »
Is this the right yhresd to find statman Gaz's alternate PL table?
Klopp that!

Offline Redwhiteandnotblue

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1285 on: February 7, 2020, 11:16:03 PM »
Is this the right yhresd to find statman Gaz's alternate PL table?

No. You want the fantasy forum: https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?board=32.0

Offline Lofty Ambitions

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1286 on: February 15, 2020, 12:25:47 PM »





Into a new game week, with top five now the target for a lot of teams with not much in between them. This is turning into quite a season, isn't it.
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Offline Redwhiteandnotblue

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1287 on: February 15, 2020, 11:16:51 PM »
6 away games to go. 37 points from 39. Still not dropped an away point to par.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1288 on: February 16, 2020, 09:40:06 AM »
6 away games to go. 37 points from 39. Still not dropped an away point to par.

Would be fifth in the league table on away form alone.

Offline Redwhiteandnotblue

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1289 on: February 16, 2020, 01:23:29 PM »
Would be fifth in the league table on away form alone.

So in the Champions League places ;)

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1290 on: February 16, 2020, 03:32:19 PM »
Another game = more records broken, or at least further extending the records that we have already broken:

      Period     
        LFC       
     % Pts Won   
    Old PL Best   
      Holder     
       Note       
38 Game
108
94.7%
102
LIV
1x W to extend (110)
50 Game
137
91.3%
134
LIV
45 Game
122
90.4%
120
LIV
40 Game
112
93.3%
107
LIV
1x W to extend (114)
35 Game
103
98.1%
96
LIV
30 Game
88
97.8%
82
LIV
25 Game
73
97.3%
71
LIV
20 Game
58
96.7%
58
LIV & MC
15 Game
45
100%
45
LIV & MC
10 Game
30
100%
30
5 Teams

That 35 game run of 103 points from 105 available is simply ridiculous.

Offline JC the Messiah

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1291 on: February 16, 2020, 05:13:24 PM »
Still games to play, but too good not to share:

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Offline JC the Messiah

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1292 on: February 16, 2020, 05:13:45 PM »
"I said to the boys before the game it would be impossible. But because it’s you, I say we have a chance."
Jürgen Klopp, 7 May 2019

"I told them if we score it will be different. We scored. It was different."
Rafael Benitez, 25 May 2005

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1293 on: February 16, 2020, 05:14:37 PM »
Just to add that our current run of 1 goal conceded in 11 PL games has only been bettered by 3 teams:

Chelsea 2005:  1 in 12
Liverpool 2007:  1 in 12
Man Utd 2009:  1 in 15 (including 0 in 14!)

So still a way to go to beat the PL record, but just another area where we are on a historically good run.

Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1294 on: February 16, 2020, 05:22:13 PM »
JC, that table is no longer legible even with my new pair of glasses. And when I click on it, I need two screens to fit it in...  ;D

Insane season, absolutely insane!
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1295 on: February 16, 2020, 05:42:34 PM »
5 out of remaining 6 away games are par 1.

Offline JC the Messiah

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1296 on: February 16, 2020, 05:55:32 PM »
JC, that table is no longer legible even with my new pair of glasses. And when I click on it, I need two screens to fit it in...  ;D

Insane season, absolutely insane!

 :lmao
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Offline hesbighesred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1297 on: February 17, 2020, 11:28:15 AM »
Another game = more records broken, or at least further extending the records that we have already broken:

      Period     
        LFC       
     % Pts Won   
    Old PL Best   
      Holder     
       Note       
38 Game
108
94.7%
102
LIV
1x W to extend (110)
50 Game
137
91.3%
134
LIV
45 Game
122
90.4%
120
LIV
40 Game
112
93.3%
107
LIV
1x W to extend (114)
35 Game
103
98.1%
96
LIV
30 Game
88
97.8%
82
LIV
25 Game
73
97.3%
71
LIV
20 Game
58
96.7%
58
LIV & MC
15 Game
45
100%
45
LIV & MC
10 Game
30
100%
30
5 Teams

That 35 game run of 103 points from 105 available is simply ridiculous.
I like how we're in the territory now of basically improving records that we've *already set*. Just completely insane and unprecedented in the history of the sport thus far.

Worth noting from the APLT that City would very much still be in contention for a 'normal', 90 point season. I think they might even have been in contention for more than that if it weren't for the absolutely and utterly crushing pressure we've put them on *from the very first minute* of this season. Incredible stuff.

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1298 on: February 17, 2020, 01:38:23 PM »
Worth noting from the APLT that City would very much still be in contention for a 'normal', 90 point season. I think they might even have been in contention for more than that if it weren't for the absolutely and utterly crushing pressure we've put them on *from the very first minute* of this season. Incredible stuff.

It's also worth noting that Man City will almost certainly finish on more than 81 points in 2nd place.  Why is that significant?  Well Ferguson's Utd sides of the early PL years that dominated winning 8 titles out of 11 did so with an average winning points total (adjusted for 38 games) of just 81. 

If people are saying that this is a weak league this season then what did they say in 96/ 97 when Utd won the title with 75 points?  That year they lost 5 games, drew 12, and only scored 76 goals!

Offline hesbighesred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1299 on: February 17, 2020, 01:46:10 PM »
It's also worth noting that Man City will almost certainly finish on more than 81 points in 2nd place.  Why is that significant?  Well Ferguson's Utd sides of the early PL years that dominated winning 8 titles out of 11 did so with an average winning points total (adjusted for 38 games) of just 81. 

If people are saying that this is a weak league this season then what did they say in 96/ 97 when Utd won the title with 75 points?  That year they lost 5 games, drew 12, and only scored 76 goals!
Yep, good point. 81+ points is a lot for a second-placed team, for sure.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1300 on: February 17, 2020, 02:04:31 PM »
Yep, good point. 81+ points is a lot for a second-placed team, for sure.

I think every time we finished 2nd, we finished above 81 points

Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1301 on: February 17, 2020, 04:37:48 PM »
I like how we're in the territory now of basically improving records that we've *already set*. Just completely insane and unprecedented in the history of the sport thus far.
The other thing I’ve been thinking about is when we get into all-time benchmark territory.  We probably need multiple trophy wins for that.  You need some other magic ingredient too but I’d say we already have that - Madrid won three CLs on the spin but they never had it.  It’s awesome to think of us as peers to Sacchi’s Milan or Pep’s Barca, but that’s where we’re aiming now.

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1302 on: February 17, 2020, 07:17:37 PM »
The other thing I’ve been thinking about is when we get into all-time benchmark territory.  We probably need multiple trophy wins for that.  You need some other magic ingredient too but I’d say we already have that - Madrid won three CLs on the spin but they never had it.  It’s awesome to think of us as peers to Sacchi’s Milan or Pep’s Barca, but that’s where we’re aiming now.

The problem that we have is that no one is going to acknowledge any of these records unless we break the ones that are listed on a Wikipedia page.  For example, I had to download all of the PL results for the last 27 years to be able to compile the table above, as I couldn't find anywhere that listed most points across 20 games, 25 games, 30 games, etc.

So in order for 'normal' people to appreciate what we are doing we'll need to break at least one of the below:

Most points in a season: 100
Most league games unbeaten: 49
Most consecutive wins: 18

Fall short on all of those and most people will never realise that we set probably unbeatable marks across so many other categories.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1303 on: February 18, 2020, 01:20:51 AM »
The problem that we have is that no one is going to acknowledge any of these records unless we break the ones that are listed on a Wikipedia page.  For example, I had to download all of the PL results for the last 27 years to be able to compile the table above, as I couldn't find anywhere that listed most points across 20 games, 25 games, 30 games, etc.

So in order for 'normal' people to appreciate what we are doing we'll need to break at least one of the below:

Most points in a season: 100
Most league games unbeaten: 49
Most consecutive wins: 18

Fall short on all of those and most people will never realise that we set probably unbeatable marks across so many other categories.

Just add them...

Offline dstorey

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1304 on: February 18, 2020, 03:33:17 AM »
Just add them...

It feels almost nailed on that we get the first and the 3rd (Can Moyes really upset our march to 18 at Anfield?) The 49 unbeaten is trickier as the 49th game is City at the Etihad. We can do it though! I feel the one that we can achieve that is the most underrated is if we win out our home games. Chelsea looks the toughest game left, and they are not exactly world beaters this season. Having a perfect home record would be incredible, and obviously couldn't be beaten, only matched. Those full season records are also interesting in that you're forced to play every team, rather than run a string of games together where you might avoid the hardest teams. Of course, a home record is easier in that there are no away games.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1305 on: February 18, 2020, 03:14:23 PM »
The other thing I’ve been thinking about is when we get into all-time benchmark territory.  We probably need multiple trophy wins for that.  You need some other magic ingredient too but I’d say we already have that - Madrid won three CLs on the spin but they never had it.  It’s awesome to think of us as peers to Sacchi’s Milan or Pep’s Barca, but that’s where we’re aiming now.

We're the fourth best team of all time, according to this: http://clubelo.com/Stats

Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1306 on: February 18, 2020, 03:21:19 PM »
We're the fourth best team of all time, according to this: http://clubelo.com/Stats
That's shit ranking, mate. Where's Arrigo Sacchi's Milan, Cruyiff's Barca? Bayern '14 my arse!
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Offline johnny74

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1307 on: February 18, 2020, 07:02:17 PM »
That's shit ranking, mate. Where's Arrigo Sacchi's Milan, Cruyiff's Barca? Bayern '14 my arse!

It's a scientific ranking similar to the one in chess, hence the ELO tag. What really baffles me about it is Scolari's Chelsea are in it. When you look at the results during that period it's understandable but I don't remember them doing as well as they apparently did.

Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1308 on: February 18, 2020, 07:10:13 PM »
It's a scientific ranking similar to the one in chess, hence the ELO tag. What really baffles me about it is Scolari's Chelsea are in it. When you look at the results during that period it's understandable but I don't remember them doing as well as they apparently did.
ELO is very different. The thing is, a fact-based scientific model does not become correct automatically. People have tried to create may such models that account for this or that feature, but in the end, you look at it and you ask yourself if it makes sense. This one was a long way off for me. If you ask most fans to list the best 5 teams ever in election-like polls, surely Sacchi's Milan, Cruyiff's Barca, Michels Ajax, the early Real side would be there? Clearly something is amiss. If you ask people who were the best players ever, surely the names of Pele, Maradona, Messi and Ronaldo would pop up. But this model would probably come up with a few little known names. Hence my comment.
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Offline Sangria

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1309 on: February 18, 2020, 07:16:08 PM »
It's a scientific ranking similar to the one in chess, hence the ELO tag. What really baffles me about it is Scolari's Chelsea are in it. When you look at the results during that period it's understandable but I don't remember them doing as well as they apparently did.

Elo looks like an acronym, but it's actually a name. Arpad Elo invented the system.
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Online Ghost Town

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1310 on: February 19, 2020, 02:41:47 AM »
And there was me thinking Jeff Lynne was working out team rankings
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1311 on: February 19, 2020, 04:11:35 AM »
And there was me thinking Jeff Lynne was working out team rankings

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1312 on: February 19, 2020, 10:48:55 AM »
Of course elo, like any model, is not perfect. But as it's based on winning matches, it's easy to see why - for instance - Sacchi's Milan aren't in the top teams

Their one league title was won with 17 wins from 30 matches, while they won two European Cups when it only took nine matches to win it. Look at 1988/89 - Milan only won five of their nine games, and two of them were against Dundalk.

So while they were very good, they didn't actually win that many matches. It's not their fault of course - winning enough to win big prizes is obviously fine! - but it hinders teams from different eras in elo.

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1313 on: February 19, 2020, 11:52:11 AM »
Thanks for linking to that ELO site, very interesting.  Of course there is no such thing as a perfect system for ranking teams, and people are free to point out where there may be errors or mistakes in their approach, but just saying 'that ranking is sh*t because Team X or Team Y aren't in the top 5' is a bit silly.  Ask people to name the best English side of the last 25 years and the Man Utd treble winning team or the Arsenal Invincibles will probably top many people's lists.  Yet that Utd team only managed 79 points in winning the title, and the Arsenal team drew a huge number of games in their unbeaten run.  I'd take Mourinho's Chelsea team (first spell), Guardiola's City team (100 points), and this season's Liverpool team over both of them.

The alternative is you just go by trophies won, but that tells you nothing of how those teams matched up against teams in previous years.  Was the 2005 Liverpool team just as good as the 2019 team just because they both won the Champions League?

Plus of course we tend to look at historical sides with rose tinted glasses.  Look at the Monday Night Football this week with Carragher and Keane picking the best combined Liverpool and Man Utd side from the current Liverpool side and the treble winning team.  They picked 3 Utd players in the back 5, despite the fact that they let in 37 goals in 38 games.  We have let in 15 in 26 so far, and if you use the last 12 games of last season it would be 22 in 38.  But that sort of detail doesn't seem to matter, instead we go on Schmeichal's reputation and the fact that Dennis Irwin could take a good free kick.  Keane was trying to argue for Giggs, again because he is a 'legend of the game', despite the fact that he only scored 3 goals and had 2 assists in that season.

Stats aren't a perfect way of judging teams and players against each other, but I'll trust them more than someone's memory of how good a certain team were any day.

Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1314 on: February 19, 2020, 03:43:51 PM »
Thanks for linking to that ELO site, very interesting.  Of course there is no such thing as a perfect system for ranking teams, and people are free to point out where there may be errors or mistakes in their approach, but just saying 'that ranking is sh*t because Team X or Team Y aren't in the top 5' is a bit silly.  Ask people to name the best English side of the last 25 years and the Man Utd treble winning team or the Arsenal Invincibles will probably top many people's lists.  Yet that Utd team only managed 79 points in winning the title, and the Arsenal team drew a huge number of games in their unbeaten run.  I'd take Mourinho's Chelsea team (first spell), Guardiola's City team (100 points), and this season's Liverpool team over both of them.
There are things I agree with and things I disagree with here. First, you have this a bit backwards. History happens, people form opinions, and then models are created to explain said history. It's not the other way around, it's not a model that came first to tell us Team X or Team Y is great. Secondly, comparing teams for points, wins, or whatever other metric assumes that those conditions remain unchanged. That's not the case. You can start tweaking "league strength" coefficients, but then you'd be introducing more bias in the model. Therefore, I still stand by the statement that if the model does not meet accepted checks, it's a shit model.

But what you said about the teams above is not very wrong (IMHO), except for the Chelsea team perhaps. The United Treble, Arsenal Invincible and Pep's last two-seasons team are right up there. (*personal bias on*) But we are better than all of these. Ultimately, those teams that are talked for a long time after they are gone are the greatest, and I think that we are up there. I actually think our achievement this season does take some gloss off Pep's team because it happened too soon afterwards. 

As for Carra and Keane, you have to consider that they played with their mates for a long time. That's the definition of a personal bias, isn't it? Plus, Keane saying all the time that he has to be loyal to his buddies... :) I mean, Schmeichel in goal instead of Alisson? Well, he's been there for many years, Ali has been here for two. Let's talk again in a decade. I don't think Ali will be much better then (can't see how much better can one get), but he'd have been here longer. Same for Trent, maybe Gomez too. What I'm trying to say is that with players of the present quality of Ali and Trent would have definitely made the "team" had they had playing for longer. But these teams are nonsense anyway...
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1315 on: February 19, 2020, 09:51:32 PM »
Quickly running out of teams that can't catch us any more.


Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1316 on: February 20, 2020, 08:05:18 AM »
APLT Full Table : Matchweek 26
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1317 on: February 20, 2020, 08:06:02 AM »
APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 26
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 935
  • Perservate et Superate
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1318 on: February 20, 2020, 08:07:05 AM »
APLT Table Comparison : Matchweek 26
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 935
  • Perservate et Superate
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20
« Reply #1319 on: February 20, 2020, 08:07:51 AM »
APLT Revolving Par : Matchweek 26
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”