Author Topic: Ante-post / Long-term Football betting 2019/20 Season (Read 5879 times)

Phil M · « **Reply #40 on:** July 29, 2019, 04:23:28 pm »

Quote from: Crouch Potato on July 29, 2019, 02:12:30 am

For anyone who buys the Racing Post for the Big Kick-Off, for info on which teams suck etc. They are publishing the pull-out in today's issue, (normally it's been on the Wednesday of the week leading up to the start of the season).

Their PL Prediction is:

1. City
2. Us
3. Spurs
4. Chelsea
5. Arsenal
6. M Utd
7. Leicester
8. Wolves
9. Everton
10. West Ham
11. Watford
12. Southampton
13. Bournemouth
14. Crystal Palace
15. Burnley
16. Aston Villa
17. Norwich
18. Newcastle
19. Brighton
20. Sheff Utd

Phil M · « **Reply #41 on:** July 30, 2019, 09:21:30 am »

Bolton 4/6 for relegation with a 12 point deduction from the start. Hmmmm.

dudleyred · « **Reply #42 on:** July 30, 2019, 11:31:32 am »

Quote from: Phil M on July 30, 2019, 09:21:30 am

Bolton 4/6 for relegation with a 12 point deduction from the start. Hmmmm.

Only thing ruining that is surely if they go bust?

Phil M · « **Reply #43 on:** July 30, 2019, 11:55:50 am »

Quote from: dudleyred on July 30, 2019, 11:31:32 am

Only thing ruining that is surely if they go bust?

Is that likely?

Crouch Potato · « **Reply #44 on:** July 30, 2019, 11:10:34 pm »

Quote from: dudleyred on July 30, 2019, 11:31:32 am

Only thing ruining that is surely if they go bust?

Surely that would be classed as relegation anyway.

LFCStephen · « **Reply #45 on:** July 31, 2019, 01:46:36 am »

Erikson & Tanguy Ndombele 10 or more league assist each @ 50/1

Erikson had 12 last season in premier league

Tanguy Ndombele Had 7 in France

Worth a go for 50/1!

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #46 on:** July 31, 2019, 08:00:23 am »

Quote from: Crouch Potato on July 30, 2019, 11:10:34 pm

Surely that would be classed as relegation anyway.

If they go bust they dont get relegated. They no longer exist. See Glasgow Rangers

dudleyred · « **Reply #47 on:** July 31, 2019, 08:11:32 am »

Quote from: Phil M on July 30, 2019, 11:55:50 am

Is that likely?

Don’t know if they have finally been bought or not

If not then it’s very likely

If they have been bought then they’ll be ok this year

Phil M · « **Reply #48 on:** July 31, 2019, 10:24:34 am »

Cheers. There's some outstanding prices available across the various leagues but as I said in the opening post, it's wiser to invest after a few months when the league tables have taken shape and we see who is actually looking likely to challenge or be fighting the drop etc.

Saying that, I'll definitely be getting a few long term accas on before the start, for fun as much as anything to be honest.

Be careful if adding cup competitions and choosing each ways as it can, depending on the layer, mean a lesser payout or no cash out option on some markets.

markay_stinkay · « **Reply #49 on:** July 31, 2019, 11:07:38 am »

Quote from: LFCStephen on July 31, 2019, 01:46:36 am

Erikson & Tanguy Ndombele 10 or more league assist each @ 50/1

Erikson had 12 last season in premier league

Tanguy Ndombele Had 7 in France

Worth a go for 50/1!

Who is this with?

LFCStephen · « **Reply #50 on:** July 31, 2019, 08:08:40 pm »

Quote from: markay_stinkay on July 31, 2019, 11:07:38 am

Who is this with?

Paddy power, under spurs #WhatOddsPaddy

Phil M · « **Reply #51 on:** August 1, 2019, 03:18:28 pm »

Football league gets underway again tomorrow evening so just posting an example ante-post accum with prices from skybet...

West Ham - PL Top Half finish @ 4/5
Fulham- Top 6 Finish @ 4/5
Peterborough - Top 6 finish @ 11/10
Plymouth - Top 7 finish @ Evens
Wrexham - Top 7 finish @ 6/5
Aberdeen w/o Celt & Rang @ Evens
Falkirk Scot L1 winners @ 8/15
Cove Rangers Scot L2 Winner @ 7/4
Atleti w/o Real/Barca @ 4/6
Ajax Eredivisie winner @ 4/5
Dortmund w/o Bayern @ 4/6
Juve Serie A win @ 4/9

827.83/1

Obviously you can be a lot braver and back the Championship winner, teams for promotion / relegation etc but that's just an idea of what an outright acca can be.
And lots may disagree entirely with my picks above, but I'll stick a few on for fun. There's quite a few other leagues to consider also from Denmark to the Chinese SL!

Goes without saying and not to be preachy, but only bet what you can afford to at any time. Keep common sense and try and keep a record of your bets and stick to a betting bank if possible.

Better to stick a few bets on for fun for now if you wish and then look at it seriously around late Nov/Dec when the leagues have a pattern and we can see who is struggling and who looks to be flying etc.
There'll still be plenty of value around then.

LallanaInPyjamas · « **Reply #52 on:** August 1, 2019, 04:46:59 pm »

Wow, looks good Phil. I don't know enough about non-league or the Scottish leagues to join you on those and I'm not sure on Ajax after losing De Jong and De Ligt, but even without those it's still 53/1 for 7 very likely outcomes.

EDIT: Chucked in Flyde for top 7 for 98/1 as they've got Danny Rowe and cash to burn.

buttersstotch · « **Reply #53 on:** August 1, 2019, 11:06:57 pm »

Roberto Firmino 6/5 to score more goals than Marcus Rashford on 365 - surely a decent bet?

Phil M · « **Reply #54 on:** August 2, 2019, 09:47:25 am »

Quote from: LallanaInPyjamas on August 1, 2019, 04:46:59 pm

Wow, looks good Phil. I don't know enough about non-league or the Scottish leagues to join you on those and I'm not sure on Ajax after losing De Jong and De Ligt, but even without those it's still 53/1 for 7 very likely outcomes.

EDIT: Chucked in Flyde for top 7 for 98/1 as they've got Danny Rowe and cash to burn.

Hi mate. I'm no oracle on the lower leagues either to be honest, just what I have researched. Am sure there's lads on here who know a lot more or may think some of my picks are desperate even.

So play around, there's a shitload of potential markets available, season match bets, relegation, each ways on the league winners or top scorers etc.

I don't feel any of mine above are dead certs because look at Notts County last season, tipped by loads of experts to win the title and they end up relegated and in the National League.

That's why I am suggesting people wait a few months, close to Xmas is advised even when the markets will be easier to play as teams will have set their stalls out so to speak.

But for a bit of craic even, a few £1-£5 bets (best to keep stakes small) something like I posted above is just an idea of what you can do right now or well any time really.

Goalscorers:

Aubamayeng @ 8/1
Roofe @ 20/1
Marquis@ 7/1
Maynard 11/1
Rowe @ 5/1

108,108/1 (£1 e/w) To return: £108, 519.46

One can dream.

Yozza1 · « **Reply #55 on:** August 2, 2019, 01:53:30 pm »

Quote from: Yozza1 on July 15, 2019, 01:33:44 pm

Will throw my 2 pence worth in.

Carlisle to be relegated from League 2 - 16/1
At this time of writing they're yet to even have a striker in their first team. Squad has been depleted, lost by far and out their best player in Jamie Devitt. Could be some value in backing at that high price

Plymouth Argyle to win League 2 - 10/1
Ryan Lowe comes in to manage these from Bury and brings with him 4 players who perfomed well in gaining promotion from this league last season. The best player in the division will ply his trade in their green shirts in Danny Mayor (shocked to see him not playing higher up), Mcfadzean comes in also and will be solid all season at the back.

Will update with a few more closer to the start of the season.

Couple to add on:
Ivan Toney Top Goalscorer in League 1 - 14/1
Well starting to come into his own now after a few difficult loan spells found himself at home at Peterborough last season. Boro, back under the stewardship of Darren Ferguson have always been known for their attacking football and general impressive strikers who have used them as a platform for bigger things (Mckail-Smith, Assambalonga, Gayle) just to name a few. Toney is still only 23 and bagged 16 last season in a weird season for Peterborough where they changed managers. Now, under a bit of stability he should easily hit 20 at least claiming each way money.

Macclesfield to be relegated from League 2 - 3/1
Looked dead and buried at Christmas, Sol Campbell came in and done a good job to keep them up eventually. However, financial difficulties could take its toll with players not being paid on time and a skinny squad as it is, Campbell could have his work cut out.

Kevin Van Veen Top League 2 Goalscorer E/W - 40/1
Capable of playing in the league above, and if he plays like he has done before for Scunthorpe he is easily capable enough of scoring enough goals at this level. He got 16 in League 1 last time he was at Scunthorpe, who are expected to be up there after their relegation.

Phil M · « **Reply #56 on:** August 2, 2019, 02:06:52 pm »

Cheers Yozza. Just read Kemar Roofe is linked with a move to Anderlecht. Will be a blow to Leeds if they lose him.

Crouch Potato · « **Reply #57 on:** August 3, 2019, 01:59:15 am »

That's one of the reasons i tend to steer clear of top goalscorer bets, as well as the chance of transfers, one dodgy tackle, leading to a bad injury and bang goes your bet. If i am tempted i tend to keep to small stakes.

kesey · « **Reply #58 on:** September 5, 2019, 02:35:24 pm »

I threw on an EW bet last night.

Leeds
Plymouth
Ipswich

kesey · « **Reply #59 on:** October 6, 2019, 01:29:40 pm »

Quote from: kesey on September 5, 2019, 02:35:24 pm

I threw on an EW bet last night.

Leeds
Plymouth
Ipswich

This is looking ok. Just need Plymouth to put a run together as they are currently mid table. Leeds are two points off the top and Ipswich are clear leaders.

Phil M · « **Reply #60 on:** November 15, 2019, 04:35:45 pm »

Leicester Top 4
WBA Top 2
Posh Top 6
Lazio Top 4
Sevilla Top 4
Celtic - Win
Bayern - Win
Marseille - Top 3
Ajax - Win
Swindon - Promotion

10 fold @ 59.86 £20 pays £1197.31 (365)

Crouch Potato · « **Reply #61 on:** November 16, 2019, 03:27:06 am »

I just checked on Sky Bet m8, and the same 10 fold seems to be 92.14/1.

Don't know why they seem to vary, but the prices in order are: 1/2, 8/11, 4/7, 8/11, 4/9, 4/9, 1/3, 11/8, 1/20 and 10/11.

kesey · « **Reply #62 on:** November 25, 2019, 11:27:27 pm »

Quote from: kesey on October 6, 2019, 01:29:40 pm

This is looking ok. Just need Plymouth to put a run together as they are currently mid table. Leeds are two points off the top and Ipswich are clear leaders.

Plymouth are doing just that. Leeds and Ipswich are favs and got them at 11/8 and 5/1. They are now 21/20 and 2/1 Plymouth are 8/1 and got them at 7/1 . Ive done it E/W too so looking ok.