Topic: The Kingdom Untied - Pfeffel the Liar is STILL PM of these Sceptered Isles

[BobOnATank]

He would be a shoe in for chairman on QT,  he has more experience on that programme than anyone.

In that scenario the only question regarding QT is would we notice the difference in the balance of the programme!? I'd say not one bit

[Riquende]

Awkward

What part of the Roman Principate was a democracy? The Praetorian Guard had proclaimed Claudius emperor after Caligula's assassination and the senate (who weren't elected, they were simply the richest upper class) felt powerless to intervene against an armed force on their doorstep. And Nero was the adopted heir of Claudius who raped and murdered the younger natural heir Britannicus en route to his own accession to the purple (after his mother was complicit in poisoning Claudius as soon as Nero was old enough to inherit but before Britannicus was).

Now, I can't say I was paying too much attention to goings on at no. 10 in 2007, but I think a direct parallel is unlikely.

[Mutton Geoff]

In that scenario the only question regarding QT is would we notice the difference in the balance of the programme!? I'd say not one bit

Exactly

[Red-Soldier]

Awkward

Nobody will care.

[mikey_LFC]

So in that first round, is it right to say it was 92 votes for candidates against no deal and 221 votes for candidates threatening a no deal?

Boris got 114 leaving 107 votes for other candidates threatening no deal. So assuming no voters change sides, then if Boris absorbs 15 of those votes (which seems likely) then it'll be a candidate against no deal against him.

Which suggests it'll be Boris against Hunt unless all the other no deal votes go against Boris then it'll be Gove. Either way, Boris's recent polling amongst Tory members puts him well above either of these, so unless scandal or shananigans strike, it is PM Boris.

[Mutton Geoff]

maybe right now this country deserves Boris, it might finally be a wake up call far too late, and also given how difficult things were for may who compared to boris is a massive genius maybe Boris wont enjoy the ride he is incapable of succeeding and if he really screws up it will be a short stay in office.

[Zeb]

Hancock's confirmed he's withdrawn, according to Sky's Beth Rigby. Won't say who he'll back but apparently he had a meeting with Javid last night. Others have until midday to withdraw before the next stage continues. Supposedly Hancock only ran because likes of Rudd said they'd back him. 

---

edit: a bit of change of perspective. Ashcroft's been doing focus groups of 2017 Tory voters in Putney and Thurrock, asking them about the individual candidates. Link

Highlights.

Gove - “He’ll just change his mind. He’s not consistent, he’s a snake.”
Stewart - “If you whacked him with a cold salmon he’d fall over;”
Hancock -  “He reminded me of Tony Blair, in a dated way. I think politics has moved on from there;”
Raab -  “He was the Brexit negotiator. So he did a good job, didn’t he?”
Javid - “There were not loads of promises, just what his drive was. He was confident and he didn’t go off the rails about Lisa in Lewisham.”
Hunt - “I like some of the things he said and as a minister backing up the PM he might be good, but I’m not sure he’s a born leader.”
Johnson -  “I don’t think he’s normal at all, I think he’s very peculiar;”

Conclusion from it.

Spoiler

For most in our groups the strongest candidates were Boris, Jeremy C*nt and Sajid Javid, though Rory Stewart had also stuck in several people’s minds. But one consistent theme was that people were interested first and foremost in the candidates’ apparent character and competence – they had simply given up listening to policies or plans, whether on Brexit or anything else: “They’ll say one thing to your face and then get in the car and say ‘ha, they bought that one, didn’t they’;” “Whenever I read about them, the underlying thing that I just can’t seem to get past is that they’ll do whatever it takes just to be leader and then change their mind;” “I’ve heard it and heard it and heard it and now I’m exhausted with listening to all their twaddle.”

For some of these voters, the identity of the next leader made little difference: “Jeremy Corbyn would be disastrous but I’m more worried about John McDonnell. They’re a double-act, and it’s not a comedy act either.” But worryingly for the Conservative Party, some of these 2017 Tories thought a Corbyn government so unlikely that they could afford to be choosy: “I don’t think Corbyn will win, so for me it’s between the Conservatives the Liberals, and I’m losing faith with the Conservative Party;” “Brexit is going to be done and it depends what happens afterwards. Not all of them are saying much about that;” “I might vote for the Brexit Party if it isn’t done right;” “If they say it’s going to take another three years, I’ll say ‘on your horse’;” “They have to unite again;” “They need to deliver Brexit and get on with running the country. For three years they haven’t done anything with the country and it’s going to crap.”

[close]

[Riquende]

OP updated with Hancock's withdrawal. Apparently in his statement he claimed he was the 'candidate of the future'. I'm sort of now picturing him as a Borg.

[Iska]

So in that first round, is it right to say it was 92 votes for candidates against no deal and 221 votes for candidates threatening a no deal?

Boris got 114 leaving 107 votes for other candidates threatening no deal. So assuming no voters change sides, then if Boris absorbs 15 of those votes (which seems likely) then it'll be a candidate against no deal against him.

Which suggests it'll be Boris against Hunt unless all the other no deal votes go against Boris then it'll be Gove. Either way, Boris's recent polling amongst Tory members puts him well above either of these, so unless scandal or shananigans strike, it is PM Boris.

Ugh, I’d been cautiously hopeful (by which I mean, regardless of the policies, hopeful that a proper candidate might prevail over one who’s not fit for the office) that Johnson’s progress hadn’t quite been as good as he needed, and that he might wither next week when it gets a bit more proper scrutiny.  But that’s a pretty compelling analysis you offer I’m afraid.  Him against Hunt I’d say.

Is there any way, when it gets to a members’ vote, that he doesn’t win?

[Libertine]

OP updated with Hancock's withdrawal. Apparently in his statement he claimed he was the 'candidate of the future'. I'm sort of now picturing him as a Borg.

Well, he's got his personal app already - well on the way to full cyborg status.

[ShakaHislop]

Hancock's confirmed he's withdrawn, according to Sky's Beth Rigby. Won't say who he'll back but apparently he had a meeting with Javid last night. Others have until midday to withdraw before the next stage continues. Supposedly Hancock only ran because likes of Rudd said they'd back him. 

---

edit: a bit of change of perspective. Ashcroft's been doing focus groups of 2017 Tory voters in Putney and Thurrock, asking them about the individual candidates. Link

Highlights.

Gove - “He’ll just change his mind. He’s not consistent, he’s a snake.”
Stewart - “If you whacked him with a cold salmon he’d fall over;”
Hancock -  “He reminded me of Tony Blair, in a dated way. I think politics has moved on from there;”
Raab -  “He was the Brexit negotiator. So he did a good job, didn’t he?”
Javid - “There were not loads of promises, just what his drive was. He was confident and he didn’t go off the rails about Lisa in Lewisham.”
Hunt - “I like some of the things he said and as a minister backing up the PM he might be good, but I’m not sure he’s a born leader.”
Johnson -  “I don’t think he’s normal at all, I think he’s very peculiar;”

Conclusion from it.

Spoiler

[close]

WTF?! Same goes for the Hancock-Blair comparison.

Hancock backing Javid would be weird too. Hancock tried to position himself as a soft-Brexit-ish candidate whereas Javid is happy to pander to no deal loons. It'd be like me endorsing Kate Hoey for Labour leader.

[redmark]

WTF?! Same goes for the Hancock-Blair comparison.

Hancock backing Javid would be weird too. Hancock tried to position himself as a soft-Brexit-ish candidate whereas Javid is happy to pander to no deal loons. It'd be like me endorsing Kate Hoey for Labour leader.

Already reported elsewhere that he won't be backing Javid, but it's not necessarily that weird - those are the two candidates who have most tried to pitch themselves as looking beyond Brexit.

[killer-heels]

Where will the Hancocks flock to next?

[Elmo!]

Wills man still not dealt with.

Why not? It’s only Jews I guess...

Faulkner is disgusted

https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/opinion-lord-falconer-labour-failed-the-pete-willsman-acid-test/

I know the thread titles are pretty confusing but this is surely the wrong thread? 

[Mutton Geoff]

Wills man still not dealt with.

Why not? It’s only Jews I guess...

Faulkner is disgusted

https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/opinion-lord-falconer-labour-failed-the-pete-willsman-acid-test/

Wrong thread perhaps

[Zeb]

Already reported elsewhere that he won't be backing Javid, but it's not necessarily that weird - those are the two candidates who have most tried to pitch themselves as looking beyond Brexit.

Yeah. With Gove, they're seen as 'modernisers' within the Tories. Looking to grow the base, appeal to younger voters, old Cameron rebranding themes etc.

[IgorBobbins]

Hancock's confirmed he's withdrawn

Well at least he’s had his fifteen minutes half hour of fame

[Zeb]

Well at least he’s had his fifteen minutes half hour of fame

"I mean, I came here in all good faith to help my country."

[Mutton Geoff]

"I mean, I came here in all good faith to help my country."

It's an exercise in taking the wheat from the chaff the problem is they are all chaff.

[killer-heels]

Apparently in a hustings Boris is to call an election after Brexit is done from the end of October.

[oldfordie]

Apparently in a hustings Boris is to call an election after Brexit is done from the end of October.

Timing will be crucial. IMO, we leave with a no deal and the EU implement their no deal contingency plans some of which have already been implemented.
Basically they will have us by the balls with the start of a new clock ticking, 9-12 months temporary arrangement before everything stops. there will still be chaos but the EU are prepared to at least keep the basics ticking over.
We will ask for talks, they will not even sit down to talk until we honour the WA which we will eventually and this is why the timing of any GE is important.
We will be forced to go back with our tail between our legs, I would think it's vital for the Tories to have this election before this happens.
Who knows, we maybe forced to accept the WA within weeks .

European Commission - Press release
Brexit: European Commission implements “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors
Brussels, 19 December 2018

Transport

The Commission has today adopted two measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of no deal. These measures will only ensure basic connectivity and in no means replicate the significant advantages of membership of the Single European Sky. This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition.

A proposal for a Regulation to ensure temporarily (for 12 months) the provision of certain air services between the UK and the EU.
A proposal for a Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.
The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.

Customs and the export of goods

In a no deal scenario, all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK. The Commission has today adopted the following technical measures:

A Delegated Regulation to include the seas surrounding the UK in the provisions on time-limits within which entry summary declarations and pre-departure declarations have to be lodged prior to leaving or entering the Union's customs territory.
A proposal for a Regulation to add the UK to the list of countries for which a general authorisation to export dual use items is valid throughout the EU.
It is essential, however, that Member States take all the necessary steps to be in a position to apply the Union Customs Code and the relevant rules regarding indirect taxation in relation to the United Kingdom

[west_london_red]

Apparently in a hustings Boris is to call an election after Brexit is done from the end of October.

I’d guess that’s based on his make believe, unicorn infested, magic deal. When that inevitable happens, we crash out and the economy hits the skids then an election will be the last thing on his mind.

Expect some kind of military action though between him becoming PM and 2022 however.

[Riquende]

I’d guess that’s based on his make believe, unicorn infested, magic deal. When that inevitable happens, we crash out and the economy hits the skids then an election will be the last thing on his mind.

I'm not sure. If he forces through a No Deal, hasn't he at that point effectively wiped out the Brexit Party's raison d'etre and would expect to hoover up all the current Frottage votes? Admittedly most of them are ex-Tories anyway but no doubt there's triangulation around enough Labour Leavers voting for the 'man who got us out' and enough Labour Remainers being too disgusted with Corbyn's failure to do 'enough' and so sticking with the Lib Dems.

Sneak that one election and spend 5 years setting up mates for life on the fat profits that come with all the pro-US 'windfalls'.

[Iska]

I'm not sure. If he forces through a No Deal, hasn't he at that point effectively wiped out the Brexit Party's raison d'etre and would expect to hoover up all the current Frottage votes? Admittedly most of them are ex-Tories anyway but no doubt there's triangulation around enough Labour Leavers voting for the 'man who got us out' and enough Labour Remainers being too disgusted with Corbyn's failure to do 'enough' and so sticking with the Lib Dems.

Sneak that one election and spend 5 years setting up mates for life on the fat profits that come with all the pro-US 'windfalls'.

Plus he reaps votes that inevitably come from the surge of patriotism as beastly foreigners try to bash Blighty, and likely doubly so given the obvious lack of patriotism from the leader of the opposition.  It’s the smart move, if by smart you mean ‘what’s the maximum chance of securing a big Tory majority for Johnson?’.

[oldfordie]

I'm not sure. If he forces through a No Deal, hasn't he at that point effectively wiped out the Brexit Party's raison d'etre and would expect to hoover up all the current Frottage votes? Admittedly most of them are ex-Tories anyway but no doubt there's triangulation around enough Labour Leavers voting for the 'man who got us out' and enough Labour Remainers being too disgusted with Corbyn's failure to do 'enough' and so sticking with the Lib Dems.

Sneak that one election and spend 5 years setting up mates for life on the fat profits that come with all the pro-US 'windfalls'.

Naah, the Tories are in a no win situation of their own making.
No Brexit and Frottage rips them apart for betraying the British people.
No deal and Frottage rips them apart for all sorts of reasons, not being prepared for a no deal,how we should of been preparing in 2016,  allowing the EU to bully us. ripping them apart for running back to the EU and doing a deal to end the chaos, that deal will be agreeing to honour the backstop.
Frottage is going to be around stirring the s,, for many years to come. assuming he is never in a position when he's actually responsible for implementing Brexit of course, he's finished the day that happens.

[Zeb]

It's possible that all the Brexit Party moves over back to the Tories in that scenario. But isn't it also as likely that any problems (and with 'no deal' in October there will be a lot) would lead to them blaming *him* for not doing Brexit 'properly'? He's delivered the 'wrong Brexit'. Wouldn't put it past Johnson to be seeking an extension in October if he can't sprinkle something on May's 'deal' to turn it into a 'good deal'.

edit: was watching boxing and typing, agree with oldfordie's post.

[west_london_red]

I'm not sure. If he forces through a No Deal, hasn't he at that point effectively wiped out the Brexit Party's raison d'etre and would expect to hoover up all the current Frottage votes? Admittedly most of them are ex-Tories anyway but no doubt there's triangulation around enough Labour Leavers voting for the 'man who got us out' and enough Labour Remainers being too disgusted with Corbyn's failure to do 'enough' and so sticking with the Lib Dems.

Sneak that one election and spend 5 years setting up mates for life on the fat profits that come with all the pro-US 'windfalls'.

If it’s a No deal then it’s a case of wipe out the UKIP and Brexit Party, but I am assuming there will be severe economic consequences, depreciation of Sterling, inflation, unemployment, house prices crash etc etc then I cant see an election being so enjoyable for the Tories.

[redmark]

Naah, the Tories are in a no win situation of their own making.
No Brexit and Frottage rips them apart for betraying the British people.
No deal and Frottage rips them apart for all sorts of reasons, not being prepared for a no deal,how we should of been preparing in 2016,  allowing the EU to bully us. ripping them apart for running back to the EU and doing a deal to end the chaos, that deal will be agreeing to honour the backstop.
Frottage is going to be around stirring the s,, for many years to come. assuming he is never in a position when he's actually responsible for implementing Brexit of course, he's finished the day that happens.

If there's no deal or a very loose arrangement with the EU allowing the UK to strike trade deals, I suspect Frottage will become a handsomely paid advisor to US health insurers, big pharma and chlorinated chicken exporters. If Frottage wanted actual political position, he could have joined the Tories years ago.

The Tories have their ultimate win scenario on the horizon: they've self destructed over Europe for decades - make Brexit happen and that disappears. Ken Clarke might mention it occasionally when he's elevated to the Lords, but no one else in the party is going to waste any effort arguing to rejoin the EU. They can get on with the Thatcherite dreams of unpicking workers rights, environmental protections and the last remnants of the welfare consensus. An exodus of pesky foreigners in a new hostile environment will dampen unemployment and we'll all be grateful for whatever opportunities are provided by a full on gig economy.

[Riquende]

If it’s a No deal then it’s a case of wipe out the UKIP and Brexit Party, but I am assuming there will be severe economic consequences, depreciation of Sterling, inflation, unemployment, house prices crash etc etc then I cant see an election being so enjoyable for the Tories.

I suppose it's all a question of timing. If they can ram an election through before the worst hits (assuming it's not instant due to stockpiling in certain industries) then they can win, pull up the electoral drawbridge and sell the nation off in the next five years before loads of them move into now-lucrative private sector posts.

Of course the flip side is that a post-No Deal early election goes badly for them and leaves a (probably minority) Labour government having to deal with the fallout. And five years of that would the voters remember that it was a Tory-led 'project' that kickstarted the chaos? Unlikely.

[Red-Soldier]

If there's no deal or a very loose arrangement with the EU allowing the UK to strike trade deals, I suspect Frottage will become a handsomely paid advisor to US health insurers, big pharma and chlorinated chicken exporters. If Frottage wanted actual political position, he could have joined the Tories years ago.

The Tories have their ultimate win scenario on the horizon: they've self destructed over Europe for decades - make Brexit happen and that disappears. Ken Clarke might mention it occasionally when he's elevated to the Lords, but no one else in the party is going to waste any effort arguing to rejoin the EU. They can get on with the Thatcherite dreams of unpicking workers rights, environmental protections and the last remnants of the welfare consensus. An exodus of pesky foreigners in a new hostile environment will dampen unemployment and we'll all be grateful for whatever opportunities are provided by a full on gig economy.

I agree.

This has always been the Endgame for them and it is now within touching distance.

[drmick]

They still have to get No Deal through Parliament though.

[TepidT2O]

They still have to get No Deal through Parliament though.

No they don’t.

We leave with no deal by automatic effect on Halloween

[Riquende]

They still have to get No Deal through Parliament though.

No Deal is already 'through Parliament' in the sense that it's what happens unless Parliament decides on (and can force through) something else, whether that be a deal (which would be May's deal with a false moustache), an extension (though I would imagine we'd only get another one with an ironclad guarantee on something like a Peoples Vote), or legislation revoking A50.

If none of those three things are approved by Parliament in the next 137 days (minus weekends, recesses and summer holidays) then No Deal is the result, already enshrined in law, no matter how many backbench motions charge the PM with seeking to avoid it.

[Zeb]

Was going to post this elsewhere but think there's a way for MPs to do it. Rory Stewart and Hunt this morning on Marr dropped hints towards it as well. What they do is get a backbencher to call for an emergency debate. And then seek to turn it into something more. Bercow plays ball, and makes a new precedent all over again, and we're back to 'Cooper' style legislation. The process won't be to force 'revoke' but to change the legal default to 'revoke'. Hunt and Stewart seem to want to use this to corral the Tories and the pro-Brexity Labour MPs into a majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement (with or without changes to the Political Declaration) - Hunt's a slimy sod and seems to want to get it so he can say "look what they did" after it happens if he fails to get the Withdrawal Agreement through and can't deliver his promised 'no deal' Brexit.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Johnson is hoping/relying on a similar thing to happen.

[drmick]

No Deal is already 'through Parliament' in the sense that it's what happens unless Parliament decides on (and can force through) something else, whether that be a deal (which would be May's deal with a false moustache), an extension (though I would imagine we'd only get another one with an ironclad guarantee on something like a Peoples Vote), or legislation revoking A50.

If none of those three things are approved by Parliament in the next 137 days (minus weekends, recesses and summer holidays) then No Deal is the result, already enshrined in law, no matter how many backbench motions charge the PM with seeking to avoid it.

Are the numbers there for opposition and rebels to prevent?

[Riquende]

Are the numbers there for opposition and rebels to prevent?

That's not how it works. Parliament has to vote positively for something else to happen. MPs can shout until they're blue in the face that they want to avoid no deal but something has to be voted for to replace it. And at the moment it's not clear there will even be a vehicle to use to get such a vote (Raab and McVey have spoken of the possibility of just not putting forward any legislation for a few months so there's nothing to amend).

Now obviously there will be MPs who try some sort of parlimentary chicanery to change course (as Zeb has just posted about), and Bercow seems pretty amenable to letting them try, but whatever happens is likely to be an unprecedented procedure so it's impossible to predict just how it will pan out.

The other thing to consider is how much ammo the likes of Frottage get from seeing MPs 'trick' their way out of Brexit in such a way. There are probably plenty of sympathetic Tory MPs who wouldn't dare go along with it (like how they failed to vote for the recent Corbyn bill) as they'll face deselection at best and a wipeout by the Brexit Party at worst.

[oldfordie]

If there's no deal or a very loose arrangement with the EU allowing the UK to strike trade deals, I suspect Frottage will become a handsomely paid advisor to US health insurers, big pharma and chlorinated chicken exporters. If Frottage wanted actual political position, he could have joined the Tories years ago.

The Tories have their ultimate win scenario on the horizon: they've self destructed over Europe for decades - make Brexit happen and that disappears. Ken Clarke might mention it occasionally when he's elevated to the Lords, but no one else in the party is going to waste any effort arguing to rejoin the EU. They can get on with the Thatcherite dreams of unpicking workers rights, environmental protections and the last remnants of the welfare consensus. An exodus of pesky foreigners in a new hostile environment will dampen unemployment and we'll all be grateful for whatever opportunities are provided by a full on gig economy.

I think the Tories would do exactly what you say given the chance. a no deal and the EU will not sit down to negotiate with us, I suppose they may agree to talks on holding talks, they will tell us what that they have already told us. no talks on solving any brexit problems until we agree to the WA.all the solutions to those problems are in the WA and we are refusing to honour what we have already asked for and agreed too. am sure the Tories will try to lay the blame for the chaos and fallout on the EU but the Brexit party will lay the blame on the Tories as well as the EU. these problems will dominate our news, theres also the threat of things getting far worse after 9-12 months. we could end up with mass demonstrations even riots if the government don't act quickly. the only solution will be to accept the WA.
I really can't see any other option our government will have besides crawling back to the EU with our tails between our legs agreeing to the WA.

[west_london_red]

I suppose it's all a question of timing. If they can ram an election through before the worst hits (assuming it's not instant due to stockpiling in certain industries) then they can win, pull up the electoral drawbridge and sell the nation off in the next five years before loads of them move into now-lucrative private sector posts.

Of course the flip side is that a post-No Deal early election goes badly for them and leaves a (probably minority) Labour government having to deal with the fallout. And five years of that would the voters remember that it was a Tory-led 'project' that kickstarted the chaos? Unlikely.

For what it’s worth, I think if it’s a No deal there will be a huge economic shock immediately (before there’s any time for an election), that will tank the economy. The worst of these things in terms of recession, unemployment usually lasts 2 to 3 year, that takes us 2022 by what time the worst of it is over and the long road to economic recovery begins, and 2022 is when the election has to happen by.

But I also, meant what I said previously. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some limited military action somewhere during this period. A few drone strikes, a couple of cruise missiles, against some far away enemy that will help take people’s minds of the fall out of the no deal Brexit.

[killer-heels]

Stewart calling for Frottage to be involved in the Brexit discussion.

Its bold, but I like it.

[redmark]

Are the numbers there for opposition and rebels to prevent?

In theory, yes. (Amber Rudd on Pienaar this morning - while voting the government down is a 'step too far' for her - was happy to play up the numbers).

But - Tory wets forcing an election risk either a Boris majority, or a Corbyn government, or another hung parliament. They may come to realise that they already have pretty much the best scenario (as well as their own jobs) to frustrate and amend the worst of any Brexit deal/post-Brexit legislation. I'm not convinced enough will rebel to offset the 8-10 Labour MPs who are prepared to keep a no deal Brexit afloat.