Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[killer-heels]

Think a 'Remain coalition' is a great idea but also one which was always going to prove to be ludicrously difficult to do for the very same reasons why the Tiggers haven't looked to join the Greens or the Lib Dems in parliament. Renew folding into Change wasn't a surprise, crossover in activists was pretty high from what I saw, but I think it's perfectly reasonable for none of Change, Greens, nor Lib Dems to have been looking to run on a combined slate for these. What they lose in having a united voice, they gain from being able to maximise their own vote.

The Greens and a centre left/right/centrist party need to be separated. No way can they be on the same platform.

The problem is the Lib Dems. Their brand is shite. They are not attractive to the 25-35 year old bracket which is what they could and should be targeting because of what happened in the coalition.

Everyone is focussing on a Remain coalition and it would be helpful but for the long term existence, you dont want to be linked to them.

[Ghost Town]

These polls are not fully representative yet. The Brexit Party has beaten everyone to the chase with setting out its aims and starting its campaigning. You have to hand it to the fuckers they are incredibly shrewd and decisive operators, getting well ahead of the game while their opposition are still sleeping.

But once other parties truly start making their intentions clear and their manifestos public, there should be change for the better.

The Leave vote has probably already coalesced into its final form. There may be a few back and forth switches between UKIP and BP and the Toriers, but I can't see their numbers rising; Leavers already know where they stand, their own flavour and which party they will back. Hopefully that 27% figure is a peak for them, which will reduce as the other parties get into gear and engage their voters. There's a large number of Don't Knows to convince, whom I don't think will move towards Leave; it's more a case of convincing them to vote.

Labour are absolute kingmakers in this; they could materially affect the direction and results of these elections with their manifesto. It's one of the most important decisions of their recent history - and there's been plenty of key moments recently

[Zeb]

The Greens and a centre left/right/centrist party need to be separated. No way can they be on the same platform.

The problem is the Lib Dems. Their brand is shite. They are not attractive to the 25-35 year old bracket which is what they could and should be targeting because of what happened in the coalition.

Everyone is focussing on a Remain coalition and it would be helpful but for the long term existence, you dont want to be linked to them.

Think one platform can easily cover the ground from Greens through to most of the Lib Dem vote (in fact, there's a huge crossover in that vote anyway). Agree about Lib Dems still struggling - whether that changes with someone like Moran or Swinson leading who knows - but it's also one of the rare opportunities for smaller parties to get the benefit of a broad vote which may not concentrate in parliamentary constituencies. For Change, yeah, more informal links may be more important than going all Alliance.

[No666]

 I know Allen has been working cross-party locally since her election and seem to have a decent working relationship with Labour and Lib Dems in the region. At the moment, as a point of strategy, it may be better for them to wait and see, rather than merge with a toxic brand, because if the shit hits the fan with the Tory party leadership there may be a new bunch of defectors looking for a home (Ken Clarke has hinted as much) - or indeed with the Labour party in relation to people's vote issues.
On the other hand, I thought Cable was stepping down in May, and one presumes Swinson would take over. That might be enough to purge their toxicity and renew their image.

[ShakaHislop]

Ha. Having to vote for the Lib Dems is bleak. Not surprised people dont want to be associated with them.

People can tell themselves they're being progressive by voting for an anti-Jewish, pro-Brexit party instead but it doesn't make it true.

[ShakaHislop]

Think a 'Remain coalition' is a great idea but also one which was always going to prove to be ludicrously difficult to do for the very same reasons why the Tiggers haven't looked to join the Greens or the Lib Dems in parliament. Renew folding into Change wasn't a surprise, crossover in activists was pretty high from what I saw, but I think it's perfectly reasonable for none of Change, Greens, nor Lib Dems to have been looking to run on a combined slate for these. What they lose in having a united voice, they gain from being able to maximise their own vote.

What's the point of that?

At best, they'll get a handful of MEPs who will be out of a job if a 2nd referendum doesn't happen (and isn't won if it does), and long-term, they'll have little credibility trying to portray themselves as a pro-EU party once we're out considering they couldn't be arsed to put self-interest aside to keep us in.

[Ghost Town]

This talk of merging is nonsense; there was never any chance, or desire, for merging. Each party will understandably (if frustratingly) cherish its own identity and specific flavour and won't want that to be subsumed into a vague compromised monolith. Merge was never an option.

What was a possibility, before time rendered it moot, was a specific one-off alliance for these elections under one party banner. Electoral Commission rules are quite strict on this, so a loose coalition alone would not have worked.

That chance has gone now, so the only option left is strategic and coordinated deployment by the parties themselves, or strategic and coordinated voting by like-minded voters. Both are complex and difficult to realise, but the former is much easier than the latter.

I don't think we'll get either, alas; the Remain vote will be split and diffused, and the media narrative will be a win for Leave.

Unless Labour run on a revoke or PV ticket

[ShakaHislop]

I know Allen has been working cross-party locally since her election and seem to have a decent working relationship with Labour and Lib Dems in the region. At the moment, as a point of strategy, it may be better for them to wait and see, rather than merge with a toxic brand, because if the shit hits the fan with the Tory party leadership there may be a new bunch of defectors looking for a home (Ken Clarke has hinted as much) - or indeed with the Labour party in relation to people's vote issues.
On the other hand, I thought Cable was stepping down in May, and one presumes Swinson would take over. That might be enough to purge their toxicity and renew their image.

Swinson was a minister in the coalition government, so it would be bizarre for voters who still hold a grudge against the Lib Dems for the coalition to vote for them if she becomes leader.

[No666]

Swinson was a minister in the coalition government, so it would be bizarre for voters who still hold a grudge against the Lib Dems for the coalition to vote for them if she becomes leader.

Do you think she's associated with that in the minds of the general public? I don't even think she registered.

[oldfordie]

This talk of merging is nonsense; there was never any chance, or desire, for merging. Each party will understandably (if frustratingly) cherish its own identity and specific flavour and won't want that to be subsumed into a vague compromised monolith. Merge was never an option.

What was a possibility, before time rendered it moot, was a specific one-off alliance for these elections under one party banner. Electoral Commission rules are quite strict on this, so a loose coalition alone would not have worked.

That chance has gone now, so the only option left is strategic and coordinated deployment by the parties themselves, or strategic and coordinated voting by like-minded voters. Both are complex and difficult to realise, but the former is much easier than the latter.

I don't think we'll get either, alas; the Remain vote will be split and diffused, and the media narrative will be a win for Leave.

Unless Labour run on a revoke or PV ticket

Yeah, I can't see the Lib Dems doing well, they had a disastrous MEP result in 2014, only 1 mill votes and 1 MEP. lost 10 MEPs, I expected them to do far better in the 2017 GE but only gained 4 seats.
The MEPs elections are a opportunity to tell Labour what will happen in the next GE if they don't start demanding another referendum, I think voting for CHUK will send 2 messages, the public want to remain in the EU, the public are disgusted with both parties putting party politics ahead of the countries best interests.

[ShakaHislop]

Yeah, I can't see the Lib Dems doing well, they had a disastrous MEP result in 2014, only 1 mill votes and 1 MEP. lost 10 MEPs, I expected them to do far better in the 2017 GE but only gained 4 seats.
The MEPs elections are a opportunity to tell Labour what will happen in the next GE if they don't start demanding another referendum, I think voting for CHUK will send 2 messages, the public want to remain in the EU, the public are disgusted with both parties putting party politics ahead of the countries best interests.

Are you having a laugh?

Party before country is exactly what CHUK and the Greens are doing.

[ShakaHislop]

Do you think she's associated with that in the minds of the general public? I don't even think she registered.

I'm sure they'll be made aware of it, including by Labour devotees who will scream "but tuition fees" from the rooftops.

[oldfordie]

Are you having a laugh?

Party before country is exactly what CHUK and the Greens are doing.

Not doing exactly what you want doesn't mean they are putting party before country, the MEP elections are important but I think a disastrous result for CHUKA will be greeted with glee by the Labour front bench. it will be a bit of ammo to argue this is what happens when you oppose Brexit, this is what happens to MPs when they leave their party. these MPs have put their necks and careers on the line to try and turn this country around again. this is not just about leaving the EU, if CHUKA fold then the Charlatans will have full control for many years to come.

[Red-Soldier]

The Greens and a centre left/right/centrist party need to be separated. No way can they be on the same platform.

The problem is the Lib Dems. Their brand is shite. They are not attractive to the 25-35 year old bracket which is what they could and should be targeting because of what happened in the coalition.

Everyone is focussing on a Remain coalition and it would be helpful but for the long term existence, you dont want to be linked to them.

The Greens are closer to Labour than anyone else, apart from Brexit that is.

I agree that the Lib Dems are pretty screwed.  Their brand is well and truly tarnished.

[Zeb]

What's the point of that?

At best, they'll get a handful of MEPs who will be out of a job if a 2nd referendum doesn't happen (and isn't won if it does), and long-term, they'll have little credibility trying to portray themselves as a pro-EU party once we're out considering they couldn't be arsed to put self-interest aside to keep us in.

Maximising their own vote? Useful for targeting where to campaign and stand, and who, as well as having their own elected representatives. They need to show they're viable politically to attract funding, it snowballs from there - or not. Elected representatives on a broad vote are good for demonstrating that. If the argument is in percentage of the vote rather than MEP numbers then it's a reasonable decision. If you were after trying to win on number of MEPs then, yeah, it's suboptimal.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Are you having a laugh?

Party before country is exactly what CHUK and the Greens are doing.

How is it?

Far as I recall the Greens voluntarily entered into a one-sided electoral-pact with Labour to help stop the Tories winning a majority in the last election.

As for this EU election, they are already a well established contender for European parliamentary elections and have a good base. Furthermore, Green politics is still their centre-point and is much needed in the European parliament (and every other parliament), and that trumps all else quite frankly.

[filopastry]

Unless Labour come out and clearly back a second ref, I can't see the camapign going well for them.

As it stands I would see a vote for Labour as a completely wasted one in this election, its a European election where the party still can't manage to come up with a clear unambiguous position on the Brexit issue that defines whether the MEP actually serves for a meaningful amount of time or not

[Devon Red]

These polls are not fully representative yet.

That's certainly true, they're all over the place;

European Parliament voting intention:

LAB: 33% (+8)
CON: 18% (-6)
BREX: 17% (+17)
CHUK: 9% (+9)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
UKIP: 5% (-22)
GRN: 5% (-2)

via @ComRes, 16 Apr
Chgs. w/ 2014 result

[ShakaHislop]

Not doing exactly what you want doesn't mean they are putting party before country, the MEP elections are important but I think a disastrous result for CHUKA will be greeted with glee by the Labour front bench. it will be a bit of ammo to argue this is what happens when you oppose Brexit, this is what happens to MPs when they leave their party. these MPs have put their necks and careers on the line to try and turn this country around again. this is not just about leaving the EU, if CHUKA fold then the Charlatans will have full control for many years to come.

So why aren't they willing to work with other parties who also want to turn this country around? Their decision not to stinks of arrogance and self-interest. This is a party that has no electoral track record whatsoever, yet they think they can storm these elections on their own? You've acknowledged that there are people on both the left and right who want to see them fail, so it's not as if they had masses of goodwill to rely on even before they turned their noses up at the Lib Dems.

If this is an indication of how CHUK will behave long-term, then it's no loss if they're fold as it's the same tribal politics they claim to be offering an alternative to.

[ShakaHislop]

How is it?

Far as I recall the Greens voluntarily entered into a one-sided electoral-pact with Labour to help stop the Tories winning a majority in the last election.

As for this EU election, they are already a well established contender for European parliamentary elections and have a good base. Furthermore, Green politics is still their centre-point and is much needed in the European parliament (and every other parliament), and that trumps all else quite frankly.

If the Remain parties balls up this election, it makes us less likely to stay in the EU so therefore any talk of how much the European Parliament needs Green representation becomes moot.

Making sure the broad Remain movement has a very good European election trumps making sure one particular Remain party does. Go for each other's throats in 2024 (and earlier in general/local elections) after we've secured our EU membership long-term. Until then, it's incredibly short-sighted not to be willing to work together.

[oldfordie]

So why aren't they willing to work with other parties who also want to turn this country around? Their decision not to stinks of arrogance and self-interest. This is a party that has no electoral track record whatsoever, yet they think they can storm these elections on their own? You've acknowledged that there are people on both the left and right who want to see them fail, so it's not as if they had masses of goodwill to rely on even before they turned their noses up at the Lib Dems.

If this is an indication of how CHUK will behave long-term, then it's no loss if they're fold as it's the same tribal politics they claim to be offering an alternative to.

I would like a bit more info before I form a opinion, am not sure if the Lib Dems are telling us the full story.

Sir Vince added: “People out there who've seen this argument polarised would probably have preferred us to fight under the same banner and certainly that's something we would have wanted.”

It is understood that the deadline for registering with the Electoral Commission as a joint entity for the European parliament elections passed two weeks ago.

Change UK, the new party name for The Independent Group, has said it wants “no alliance and no pacts, but to be a new party standing on its own”, a stance echoed by the Green party.

[BoRed]

Efforts to forge anti-Brexit electoral alliance fail

https://www.ft.com/content/0b07867c-6059-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c

It's Lib Dems for me then. Good luck in your new job after the next GE, Heidi Allen and as for the Greens, please burn some coal when making your way down to the polling station.

So Lib Dems are a tarnished brand for being in a coalition with the Tories four years ago, says an MP who was a Tory until a few weeks ago? Not to mention that Anna Soubry served as a minister in that same coalition government, and in another Tory government after that. But somehow they're not tarnished?

I'm no fan of the Lib Dems, but ChUK are a joke.

[ShakaHislop]

I would like a bit more info before I form a opinion, am not sure if the Lib Dems are telling us the full story.

Sir Vince added: “People out there who've seen this argument polarised would probably have preferred us to fight under the same banner and certainly that's something we would have wanted.”

It is understood that the deadline for registering with the Electoral Commission as a joint entity for the European parliament elections passed two weeks ago.

Change UK, the new party name for The Independent Group, has said it wants “no alliance and no pacts, but to be a new party standing on its own”, a stance echoed by the Green party.

That quote from CHUK matches with what the Lib Dems have been saying, so why do you doubt what the latter are saying?

[oldfordie]

That quote from CHUK matches with what the Lib Dems have been saying, so why do you doubt what the latter are saying?

What exactly does Cable mean by a alliance when the date to register as a alliance for MEP elections has passed.

[filopastry]

So Lib Dems are a tarnished brand for being in a coalition with the Tories four years ago, says an MP who was a Tory until a few weeks ago? Not to mention that Anna Soubry served as a minister in that same coalition government, and in another Tory government after that. But somehow they're not tarnished?

I'm no fan of the Lib Dems, but ChUK are a joke.

There isn't much getting away from the fact that the LibDems are tarnished as hell, the evidence being that they haven't been able to breakthrough in the current environment.

Maybe it is just that they annoyed so many of their formerly core voters by going into coalition with the Tories, but even fighting against a UKIPised Tory party and a Labour party which has moved left to leave a gaping hole in the Pro-European middle ground, they haven't been able to make any significant progress.

Its hardly like the Leaders of the 2 main parties have been particularly popular either, the environment couldn't be much better for more centrist parties at present.

I would have liked to see some kind of alliance of Remain minded parties as well but that is easier said than done when parties are jockeying for position as they are at present.

[ShakaHislop]

What exactly does Cable mean by a alliance when the date to register as a alliance for MEP elections has passed.

This

An alternative plan — for the Lib Dems and Change UK to stand aside for one another in different electoral regions — also failed.

https://www.ft.com/content/0b07867c-6059-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c

[oldfordie]

This

https://www.ft.com/content/0b07867c-6059-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c

It does seem like a good idea and I can't say I think Change UK are playing this right,having said that the Lib Dems have only 1 seat and they are asking other parties to step aside, don't get me wrong I know still agree with the parties coming together and working out a strategy, Lib dems step aside in low Lib Dem areas, change uk step aside in higher lib dem support areas. then again, Change UK might be throwing a marvellous opportunity to gain the max number of votes to put fear in the Labour party.

[killer-heels]

There isn't much getting away from the fact that the LibDems are tarnished as hell, the evidence being that they haven't been able to breakthrough in the current environment.

Maybe it is just that they annoyed so many of their formerly core voters by going into coalition with the Tories, but even fighting against a UKIPised Tory party and a Labour party which has moved left to leave a gaping hole in the Pro-European middle ground, they haven't been able to make any significant progress.

Its hardly like the Leaders of the 2 main parties have been particularly popular either, the environment couldn't be much better for more centrist parties at present.

I would have liked to see some kind of alliance of Remain minded parties as well but that is easier said than done when parties are jockeying for position as they are at present.

People were rightly pissed off during the student fees debate. That has harmed them massively and why vote for them when there are alternatives?

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1119543658720768000?s=21

Brexiteers in a nutshell

[oldfordie]

Laura Kuenssbergs, The Brexit storm was excellent on BBC 2 last night. how Brexit has unfolded over the last 9 months.
"We used to be the boring old relative everyone could rely on, now the world sees us drinking a bottle of Vodka a day and partying till 4 am every night."

[No666]

Chris Grey continuing to gun down ERG unicorns:
 
In fact, the economic reality is that a UK-US deal would be of negligible value – in the range of 0.1% and 0.3% of GDP, in the long-term according to government modelling (see p.14 of link). To put that figure into context, Brexit has already led to UK GDP being an estimated 2.5% smaller than it would have been had the vote gone the other way.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

[No666]

And some detailed research on Change-UK and who feels unrepresented in UK politics:

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/jury-out-independent-group-can-they-fill-gap-british-politics?fbclid=IwAR3HRXYf5QY9pkwlpmp3YuekhETG3pccJCMKx3lxn_tgz2UFfClmm8FqISQ

And Tom Watson stating the bleeding obvious.

Labour will never defeat Nigel Frottage if it continues to “sit on the fence” over Brexit and offers only “mealy-mouthed” support for a second referendum, the party’s deputy leader says today.

In an extraordinary intervention that exposes the tensions at the top of the party over Brexit strategy, Tom Watson warns that Labour will lose to Frottage’s new “far right” Brexit party in May’s European elections if it continues to give the impression that “we half agree with him”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/20/second-eu-referendum-only-way-to-beat-Frottage-says-watson

[Yorkykopite]

And Tom Watson stating the bleeding obvious.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/20/second-eu-referendum-only-way-to-beat-Frottage-says-watson

Time for Corbyn to step out of the way and for the Labour Party to acquire a leader who better represents Labour values.

[TepidT2O]

Time for Corbyn to step out of the way and for the Labour Party to acquire a leader who better represents Labour values.

But he represents ‘true’ labour values.

Those values of people who would have vited labour if it hadn’t have been for their policies. So they viewed SWP or similar instead. Now they’ve ‘got their party back’.

Still, Brexit does appear to have completely destroyed the Tory party, which is quite astonishing.  There is a chance of a Corbyn government now. Their attempts to bring Brexit May then destroy the Labour Party.

Strange times.  Bring back the moderates.

[Zeb]

Tories should recombine with a leader tacking right and wrapping themselves in the Union Flag. Labour's fragmentation is slower but may prove to be more permanent under the current leadership because it does run to that view of 'real' Labour voters, absent mindedly voting Kipper right now, being more inherently valuable than 'red Tories' or whatever epithet is currently favoured. I suppose Watson's argument is that Labour could build on the 2017 coalition whereas Labour's leader and friends would rather build a different coalition altogether. It's almost Quixotic for Corbyn to be pursuing it but there's method there if you're willing to sacrifice majority sizes in the cities for narrow victories in the towns. Holes aplenty in that view, obviously, but one which has always stood out is that fucking off people with a lot of choice on how to vote in accordance to their views and principles may not lead to a happy balance of holding seats as well as winning new ones.

[Trada]

Frottage on the Brexit campaign today thought it would be a good ideal to do a photo op in a WW2 museum today what could possibly go wrong

[killer-heels]

Is Grace Blakeley employed by the Beeb now or something? Will she be appearing on Match of The Day?

Watching Frankie Boyle’s show and she shows up as the both of them spout their anti EU views, even calling them racist, whilst a bunch of idiots between them nod and laugh along.

Thats another show I wont be tuning into again. No doubt The Last Leg and Mash Report will have her on next and their idiots will also be converted into Brexiteers.

Maybe the right wingers were right and TV is populated with far left morons?

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Is Grace Blakeley employed by the Beeb now or something? Will she be appearing on Match of The Day?

Watching Frankie Boyle’s show and she shows up as the both of them spout their anti EU views, even calling them racist, whilst a bunch of idiots between them nod and laugh along.

Thats another show I wont be tuning into again. No doubt The Last Leg and Mash Report will have her on next and their idiots will also be converted into Brexiteers.

Maybe the right wingers were right and TV is populated with far left morons?

as said before she’s a good looking woman who’s eloquent and posh, always going to get the airtime with those scary eyebrows of hers, mash report have had the likes of Williamson and Steve topple on so surprised she’s not gone on it

[ShakaHislop]

Is Grace Blakeley employed by the Beeb now or something? Will she be appearing on Match of The Day?

Watching Frankie Boyle’s show and she shows up as the both of them spout their anti EU views, even calling them racist, whilst a bunch of idiots between them nod and laugh along.

Thats another show I wont be tuning into again. No doubt The Last Leg and Mash Report will have her on next and their idiots will also be converted into Brexiteers.

Maybe the right wingers were right and TV is populated with far left morons?

I don't really like the term but I'd struggle to think of a better example of an "echo chamber" in TV form than Frankie Boyle's show. It's always been 100% left-wing with not even one token right-winger to act as a fig leaf of balance. It's made by, and for the Guardian chinstroker demographic who write or read articles which blame the vote for Brexit on, amongst other non-immigration related things, other left-wingers/liberals, yet do not have the self-awareness to realise that they are the section of the left that Brexit voters find most insufferable.

I mean, for FFS, it's a half hour left-wing soapbox on the licence-fee funded, and strongly suspected by Brexit voters to be left-wing/liberal biased, BBC, which clearly makes a point of having female and BAME guests on. It's like metropolitan/London-elite cliche bingo. All they need is a section about avocados and they'll have a full house.

At least The Last Leg has had a few Tories/ex-Tories on (even if they are of the more liberal wing of the party) but it, along with Boyle's show, clearly treat Corbyn/Labour with kid gloves in rare moments of criticism of them.

[ShakaHislop]

On a different note, it's nice to see the parties take the European elections seriously with their choice of candidates.