Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[ShakaHislop]

I've always wondered whether Labour's plan, if they got into power and could legitimately 'renegotiate a deal' with the EU, was to drop some or all of May's red lines. I know they've said before that they would want to be out of the SM but 'closely aligned' but I've often wondered whether there was a semantic turn in that. And anyway, they have shifted position markedly on, say, a PV so it wouldn't surprise me if they shifted on red lines as well, and always intended to.

This is mostly just a hunch, but I've often got this feeling from them that the subtext was 'look we can't say too much now, but if we get power then we will do something more then we are able to say now'.

I think the main reason Labour are currently against the continuation of free movement is out of fear of alienating the "heartlands", so as you suggest, they might talk tough about that during a GE campaign and then adopt a much more open stance towards the idea if/when they are in power (although that could come back to bite them later down the line) I certainly wouldn't bet my life savings on that happening though.

However. opposition to state aid rules, another requirement of SM membership seems more sincere/ideological among the likes of Corbyn and McCluskey.

[Sarge]

So Phil 'The Bull' Hogan is the Trade Commissioner, some kick in the balls for Boris that, he ain't called the Bull for no reason as he is one tough, but very shrewd and clever man.

He wont take any fucking about let me tell you.

[Riquende]

So Phil 'The Bull' Hogan is the Trade Commissioner, some kick in the balls for Boris that, he ain't called the Bull for no reason as he is one tough, but very shrewd and clever man.

He wont take any fucking about let me tell you.

A man with the surname 'Hogan' was given a nickname that alludes to phyical prowess and it wasn't 'Hulk'?

[cowtownred]

Been saying since Boris became leader he will sacrifice NI in negotiations, simply cos him and his supporters are´The New English Nationalist Party` Southern English elite of the Tory party who basically no longer give a flying fuck about the UK as a whole ( unless votes needed)..but see the UK as a burden now. Its been brewing for decades..the 'managed decline'' of the North, turning working class against their own , but the Tories where still dominated by old school 'one nation' Torys...they have lost control now. The hard core right which existed within the party for years are now in power and dont give fuck about Scotland and NI ( the Northern Power house is a con trick too to remove financial support form central goverment)...or the shite NI brings with it...therefore I said  , it wouldnt surprise me if he gave up NI in some form , even using a united Ireland  vote as a bartering tool with the EU...or a Border in the Irish sea.


Was watching CNN and had Camerons adviser on....who was out and out remainér but said she saw the right wing growing within party and anti EU feeling and referendum was to kill that (ha!).....however  reason for rise in part was devolution of powers to Scotland NI and Wales had in effect made the Conservatives more Éngland 'centric in their outlook ( found that interesting....more democratic UK appeared it opened up right wing nationlism)

The Torys are now a true Right wing party..and exist becouse in the main England is now a right wing county...and always was...lets face it took two world wars ,millions dying and suffering for working British people to wake up and and take control of their lives and wealth and futures through the Labour movement....the decendents of those people put Thatcher in power and voted Brexit.


Im 58 and remember the Thatcher years well...but they where easier to deal with in a way...you knew where you stood with your politics and communty , that has changed....and now the British Political system is not fit for purpose...the 'two party system' no longer represents chunks  of the UK or was a good 'machine' to deliver Brexit...people now hold cross party political views now...for Britain to survive itself it needs to dump the first past the post system ..if it doesnt the country is open to extreme politics ( left and right) that will end bad. Every generation feels it will not make the mistakes of the past, but....

I was watching the BBC the other night and they said " The prime Minister still has a Parliament to control him,  so he sets MPs and Parliament against itslef, even his own party"..the plan was to discredit Parliament with the people and seize power on the back of this .....it was BBC2 and talking about Hitler and the Rise of the Nazis.

Very good post.

In large parts, you've absolutely nailed it.  I think the momentum for Scottish independence will become unstoppable pretty soon.

The best and funniest thing will be when Bozo the clown decides (soon I think) that NI is dispensible, did anyone think that he gives a shit about some backward outpost on the Irish mainland?  Possibly the biggest error that May made was getting in bed with those tossers in the first place.  Now that their 10 votes are irrelevant, watch them dumped like a hot potato....  I cannot wait to see the likes of Foster and Wilson explode as they realise how insignificant they are.

Onwards to a border poll in Ireland.  Might take a few years, but it's one way traffic.  I hope Sinn Fein/Alliance/SDLP can unify the Remain vote and put forward unity candidates to obliterate the DUP where possible.

[Sarge]

A man with the surname 'Hogan' was given a nickname that alludes to phyical prowess and it wasn't 'Hulk'?

Missed a trick.

[Corkboy]

A man with the surname 'Hogan' was given a nickname that alludes to phyical prowess and it wasn't 'Hulk'?

Doesn't matter, Boris thinks we should all be called Murphy.

[Sarge]

Doesn't matter, Boris thinks we should all be called Murphy.

😂

[filopastry]

Very good post.

In large parts, you've absolutely nailed it.  I think the momentum for Scottish independence will become unstoppable pretty soon.

The best and funniest thing will be when Bozo the clown decides (soon I think) that NI is dispensible, did anyone think that he gives a shit about some backward outpost on the Irish mainland?  Possibly the biggest error that May made was getting in bed with those tossers in the first place.  Now that their 10 votes are irrelevant, watch them dumped like a hot potato....  I cannot wait to see the likes of Foster and Wilson explode as they realise how insignificant they are.

Onwards to a border poll in Ireland.  Might take a few years, but it's one way traffic.  I hope Sinn Fein/Alliance/SDLP can unify the Remain vote and put forward unity candidates to obliterate the DUP where possible.

I can't see them suggesting anything on NI prior to a GE, as they may end up needing DUP votes after the election again, but I do think its a realistic option if the Tories come back with a majority, although the ERG would no doubt kick up a fuss as half of those crazies want no deal anyway

[Ghost Town]

I think the main reason Labour are currently against the continuation of free movement is out of fear of alienating the "heartlands", so as you suggest, they might talk tough about that during a GE campaign and then adopt a much more open stance towards the idea if/when they are in power (although that could come back to bite them later down the line) I certainly wouldn't bet my life savings on that happening though.

However. opposition to state aid rules, another requirement of SM membership seems more sincere/ideological among the likes of Corbyn and McCluskey.

Yes those two - FoM and State Aid -  are the battleground. I wonder if Corbyn's idea, as part of any 'negotiations', is to try and get an exemption from, or a preferential clarification in the wording of the State Aid rules; certainly there has been some journalism suggesting that State Aid rules would not unduly hamper Labour's manifesto plans, but Corbyn is clearly still jittery about it. I've even read a few suggestions that he might already have had these discussions and received a not unfavourable response, hence his cleaving to the idea of negotiating a new deal when most people are wondering what in the hell he can expect to renegotiate.

FoM is a funny one. The modern Labour party is largely pro-immigration, pro-FoM and internationalist, with a 'bigger picture' view of workers' rights etc. An older more leftist view can sometimes be more parochial, seeing immigration/FoM as a threat to local workers' rights and wages. That's a tension that had seemingly been resolved but has come back to the fore recently. As with many things Brexit has allowed many foul, dank vapours to rise again.

[Zeb]

Did they say their goodbyes elsewhere? I wondered whether coming back to the debating chamber was part of procedure or whether Bercow only returned because the opposition were still there.

Also he hasn't retired yet - we have a couple of weeks of him still in October to look forward to.

Procedure is they all go to the Lords with the Speaker and then return. Used to be the Speaker would then re-read the Queen's Speech but it got shortened to 'go and read it for yourself if you're interested' and then all MPs file out after shaking the Speaker's hand. Tories were protesting, think Mogg organised it, to avoid shaking Bercow's hand etc.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Procedure is they all go to the Lords with the Speaker and then return. Used to be the Speaker would then re-read the Queen's Speech but it got shortened to 'go and read it for yourself if you're interested' and then all MPs file out after shaking the Speaker's hand. Tories were protesting, think Mogg organised it, to avoid shaking Bercow's hand etc.

Did not any of the Tories (the ones still under The Whip) ignore JRM? What a sorry bunch.

[Red Beret]

I've always wondered whether Labour's plan, if they got into power and could legitimately 'renegotiate a deal' with the EU, was to drop some or all of May's red lines. I know they've said before that they would want to be out of the SM but 'closely aligned' but I've often wondered whether there was a semantic turn in that. And anyway, they have shifted position markedly on, say, a PV so it wouldn't surprise me if they shifted on red lines as well, and always intended to.

This is mostly just a hunch, but I've often got this feeling from them that the subtext was 'look we can't say too much now, but if we get power then we will do something more then we are able to say now'.

I'd agree with you on that.  And I can understand Labour being cagey on this delicate matter.  At some point though, you have to take some responsibility and pick a side - and handle the political fall out.

I think the main argument over May's "red lines" is, how soft does a Brexit become before Brexit itself becomes pointless and we may as well Remain?  The Tories seemingly want the full 10 inches without lube.

[Sangria]

Yes those two - FoM and State Aid -  are the battleground. I wonder if Corbyn's idea, as part of any 'negotiations', is to try and get an exemption from, or a preferential clarification in the wording of the State Aid rules; certainly there has been some journalism suggesting that State Aid rules would not unduly hamper Labour's manifesto plans, but Corbyn is clearly still jittery about it. I've even read a few suggestions that he might already have had these discussions and received a not unfavourable response, hence his cleaving to the idea of negotiating a new deal when most people are wondering what in the hell he can expect to renegotiate.

FoM is a funny one. The modern Labour party is largely pro-immigration, pro-FoM and internationalist, with a 'bigger picture' view of workers' rights etc. An older more leftist view can sometimes be more parochial, seeing immigration/FoM as a threat to local workers' rights and wages. That's a tension that had seemingly been resolved but has come back to the fore recently. As with many things Brexit has allowed many foul, dank vapours to rise again.

How the hell is state aid a big enough issue to jettison the rest of the EU package over, and what does it say about someone who thinks it is? Any government with half a brain cell can work around supposed state aid restrictions. All the EU's good stuff can't be worked around once we drop them.

[Zeb]

Did not any of the Tories (the ones still under The Whip) ignore JRM? What a sorry bunch.

I think I saw a few backbenchers return (maybe a dozen?) but cameras were cut off while Labour were shaking his hand/giving him a hug (looking at you McDonnell).

[west_london_red]

Isn't their position that they will revoke if they get a majority, i.e. that will be interpreted as a mandate from the public for revoking Art 50, which seems reasonable if they are going into the election stating that as their aim, and for the LD to go from 17 to >325 seats would be a massive endorsement.

It's not a red line for future negotiations though. If they fall short of a majority (as is likely) it's not something they can or should demand of others. The red line they do have though is a referendum with remain.

The problem is the UK electoral system. You can get 325 seats with little over 30% of the vote, that’s not really a mandate. Will get us what we want if it’s a Remain party that gets a result like that but we also have to be prepared for the Tories getting something similar and claiming they have a mandate for No Deal.

[filopastry]

The problem is the UK electoral system. You can get 325 seats with little over 30% of the vote, that’s not really a mandate. Will get us what we want if it’s a Remain party that gets a result like that but we also have to be prepared for the Tories getting something similar and claiming they have a mandate for No Deal.

The Tories are already doing that, any Tory majority will be taken to mean they can do whatever the fuck they like on Brexit, irrespective of vote share, hence their enthusiasm for a GE rather than another referendum

[Trada]

Excl: Watson’s ‘panicked reaction’ to Corbyn speech – his own speech tomorrow that would delay GE SEVEN MONTHS

Labour’s deputy leader has come out of hiding in what Labour sources have described as a ‘panic-reaction’ to Jeremy Corbyn’s powerful and hugely popular speech today to the TUC.

Where Corbyn laid out his and Labour’s radical plans to transform the UK for the many, Watson has rushed out a speech trying to dredge up the tired idea of a referendum before a general election – again making the nonsensical claim that it is the ‘only thing that can certainly‘ ‘break the Brexit deadlock‘.

Watson did not send the press release to the SKWAWKBOX, which obtained a leaked copy.

In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action.

In this desperate-looking move, Watson has isolated himself even further – MPs told Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson that they will back a general election when their Act to prevent no-deal is fully in force, not when there has been another referendum about it.

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/09/10/excl-watsons-panicked-reaction-to-corbyn-speech-his-own-speech-tomorrow-that-would-delay-ge-seven-months/

[west_london_red]

Very good post.

In large parts, you've absolutely nailed it.  I think the momentum for Scottish independence will become unstoppable pretty soon.

The best and funniest thing will be when Bozo the clown decides (soon I think) that NI is dispensible, did anyone think that he gives a shit about some backward outpost on the Irish mainland?  Possibly the biggest error that May made was getting in bed with those tossers in the first place.  Now that their 10 votes are irrelevant, watch them dumped like a hot potato....  I cannot wait to see the likes of Foster and Wilson explode as they realise how insignificant they are.

Onwards to a border poll in Ireland.  Might take a few years, but it's one way traffic.  I hope Sinn Fein/Alliance/SDLP can unify the Remain vote and put forward unity candidates to obliterate the DUP where possible.

The issue will be that even if Bozo is ready to ditch NI and the DUP, there are enough hardcore Brexiteers that will vote against that deal along with the opposition who will vote against a deal just out of principle.

[west_london_red]

Excl: Watson’s ‘panicked reaction’ to Corbyn speech – his own speech tomorrow that would delay GE SEVEN MONTHS

Labour’s deputy leader has come out of hiding in what Labour sources have described as a ‘panic-reaction’ to Jeremy Corbyn’s powerful and hugely popular speech today to the TUC.

Where Corbyn laid out his and Labour’s radical plans to transform the UK for the many, Watson has rushed out a speech trying to dredge up the tired idea of a referendum before a general election – again making the nonsensical claim that it is the ‘only thing that can certainly‘ ‘break the Brexit deadlock‘.

Watson did not send the press release to the SKWAWKBOX, which obtained a leaked copy.

In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action.

In this desperate-looking move, Watson has isolated himself even further – MPs told Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson that they will back a general election when their Act to prevent no-deal is fully in force, not when there has been another referendum about it.

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/09/10/excl-watsons-panicked-reaction-to-corbyn-speech-his-own-speech-tomorrow-that-would-delay-ge-seven-months/

Watson isn’t wrong though. A GE isn’t a bad idea as it’s an opportunity to get rid of Johnson but Brexit wise it will leave us in exactly the same position. No party gets a majority and no one is willing to budge on what they think should happen next and in the end we end up with a referendum as the only way out of this mess one way or another.

[Zeb]

Excl: Watson’s ‘panicked reaction’ to Corbyn speech – his own speech tomorrow that would delay GE SEVEN MONTHS
https://skwawkbox.org/2019/09/10/excl-watsons-panicked-reaction-to-corbyn-speech-his-own-speech-tomorrow-that-would-delay-ge-seven-months/

Swakbox rots the brain. So it broke a media embargo to say that Watson believes holding the referendum, rather than a GE, on Brexit is a better way forwards? Corbyn will be saying it every day if the other opposition parties agree to put him in Downing Street. I know Lavery and co. don't like it but they've hardly been a roaring success on the whole 'running the Labour party' thing either.

[killer-heels]

Is Ross Thomson likely to lose his Scottish seat in the next election?

[Ghost Town]

How the hell is state aid a big enough issue to jettison the rest of the EU package over, and what does it say about someone who thinks it is? Any government with half a brain cell can work around supposed state aid restrictions. All the EU's good stuff can't be worked around once we drop them.

To be fair to Labour (and yes, I know that is a sentiment in short supply round here) they've never claimed to want to jettison the whole of the EU package. Their stated position (insofar as they can be said to have one) has long involved CU membership, 'close alignment' with the SM and a 'sensible immigration policy'. The last seems very much like a semantic fudge to keep the bigots onside, but I agree with Red Berry that were Labour to get into power they would probably have pretty quickly turned that back to pro-FoM if they thought they could get away  with it, or announce an immigration policy with respect to the EU that is essentially FoM by another name.

Not saying the EU would have had any more truck with this approach than the Tories' approach but I think it's not unlikely that Labour's plan was always to relax the red lines wherever possible.

[Elmo!]

Is Ross Thomson likely to lose his Scottish seat in the next election?

Yes - and I am moving into his constituency in a few weeks. I will do my part! 

SNP strong favourites to take that seat back.

[TheShanklyGates]

Is Ross Thomson likely to lose his Scottish seat in the next election?

The most recent poll had every Scottish Tory losing their seat. There were a couple that were very marginal but the SNP are nailed on to take most of them.

[Elmo!]

The most recent poll had every Scottish Tory losing their seat. There were a couple that were very marginal but the SNP are nailed on to take most of them.

I suspenct Mundell will hangon but the rest will likely go.

[Zeb]

David Henig, former UK trade negotiator, tries to explain again why we have three broad choices and need to, eventually, figure out which of the three we want. EU membership, 'no deal', or accepting a relationship with the EU where we are 'rules takers'.

So where now? We won’t make progress by raking over 2016 motivations. We still don’t know why 52 per cent voted Leave, and how many are happy with no deal, but arguments that nobody voted for no deal are futile, as are similar arguments that nobody voted for a Norway-style model. That a majority of the electorate voted Leave and a large minority according to polls still want to Leave is the main point. We could also ask how many of the 48 per cent voted enthusiastically for EU membership, but this is similarly not particularly useful.

What we can now do is have the debate about the realistic future options open to the UK. Since 2016 our public debate has assumed that we would have the decision of what future relationship to have with the EU. Virtually no politician has been brave enough to admit that this isn’t the case, that in fact the EU has models for relationships and that we will have to fit within these.

These models provide us with choices: to be members of the EU; to be outside the EU politically but closely tied economically, in which case we are rule takers but with a little more freedom than we have as EU members; or to have no deal, with full freedom but a large economic hit, as well as particular difficulties in terms of Northern Ireland. It should be particularly noted that a Free Trade Agreement with the EU without following many of their rules and regulations is very unlikely to be available.

We have never had a debate on the basis of these actual choices. Instead the discussion has been about a second referendum, or the optimistic Remain and reform, which assumes the latter is in our power. On the Brexiteer side the discussions have included nonsense Article 24 trade agreements, including from the prime minister, which again is not an actual choice.

There can be no compromise until we agree on this field of play, that these are the facts. Once the realities are faced we can discuss whether we can live honestly with what no deal means, or being rule takers, or overturning a democratic vote. It won’t be an easy discussion. It might not be quick. But we’ve tried the easy discussions and they have failed.

We can learn from what has failed, and proceed on a new basis of facts and honesty, or we can continue the same sterile debates. The compromises put forward may be the start of the honesty path, but if they are, it is only the very start, with a long way yet to go.

Prospect

[Commie Bobbie]

I will go on the PV march in October but personally am moving away from having another dodgy as fuck referendum as the endgame.

I was planning on going until they changed the date as I'm in Amsterdam on the 19th - completely understandable as well to change the date - I must admit, I am heading into this period with genuine pessimism concerning just how peaceful it stays on the streets.

[Circa1892]

Excl: Watson’s ‘panicked reaction’ to Corbyn speech – his own speech tomorrow that would delay GE SEVEN MONTHS

Labour’s deputy leader has come out of hiding in what Labour sources have described as a ‘panic-reaction’ to Jeremy Corbyn’s powerful and hugely popular speech today to the TUC.

Where Corbyn laid out his and Labour’s radical plans to transform the UK for the many, Watson has rushed out a speech trying to dredge up the tired idea of a referendum before a general election – again making the nonsensical claim that it is the ‘only thing that can certainly‘ ‘break the Brexit deadlock‘.

Watson did not send the press release to the SKWAWKBOX, which obtained a leaked copy.

In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action.

In this desperate-looking move, Watson has isolated himself even further – MPs told Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson that they will back a general election when their Act to prevent no-deal is fully in force, not when there has been another referendum about it.

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/09/10/excl-watsons-panicked-reaction-to-corbyn-speech-his-own-speech-tomorrow-that-would-delay-ge-seven-months/

Have you not got the message that apart from you everyone on here knows swwankbox is a piece of shit? The breitbart if the left.

[TepidT2O]

Tom Watson wins his trigger ballot 14 votes out of  14

Ridiculous the whole episode.  A shameful attempt to undermine good MPs

[cowtownred]

The issue will be that even if Bozo is ready to ditch NI and the DUP, there are enough hardcore Brexiteers that will vote against that deal along with the opposition who will vote against a deal just out of principle.

Possibly.  But there might be the numbers to carry a reformed May deal.

[oldfordie]

Excl: Watson’s ‘panicked reaction’ to Corbyn speech – his own speech tomorrow that would delay GE SEVEN MONTHS

Labour’s deputy leader has come out of hiding in what Labour sources have described as a ‘panic-reaction’ to Jeremy Corbyn’s powerful and hugely popular speech today to the TUC.

Where Corbyn laid out his and Labour’s radical plans to transform the UK for the many, Watson has rushed out a speech trying to dredge up the tired idea of a referendum before a general election – again making the nonsensical claim that it is the ‘only thing that can certainly‘ ‘break the Brexit deadlock‘.

Watson did not send the press release to the SKWAWKBOX, which obtained a leaked copy.

In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action.

In this desperate-looking move, Watson has isolated himself even further – MPs told Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson that they will back a general election when their Act to prevent no-deal is fully in force, not when there has been another referendum about it.

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/09/10/excl-watsons-panicked-reaction-to-corbyn-speech-his-own-speech-tomorrow-that-would-delay-ge-seven-montt xhs/

At last someone who refuses to give Johnson the slightest chance of power when we don't need too.
So Skwakbox reckon the only sensible solution to solve brexit is to hold a GE, when Corbyn will bang on about many other issues, issues not related to Brexit, issues that will make remain voters in a referendum vote Tory, we may well end up with a GE but a GE is not the way to find out how voters feel on Brexit. politics stinks in this country now.

[Elmo!]

Tom Watson wins his trigger ballot 14 votes out of  14

Ridiculous the whole episode.  A shameful attempt to undermine good MPs

 

I'm sure Trada and his lot will respect democracy and get off his back now.

[filopastry]

Possibly.  But there might be the numbers to carry a reformed May deal.

If the Tories whipped for a deal with a NI only backstop, it could be close enough, certainly a few Labour MPs in Leave voting seats might be tempted to get onside.

Would the ERG be as keen to vote against now that they have seen what disloyalty gets you in the Johnson Tory party.

Fuck knows if that is a reasonable prospect or not though I have no idea what Cummings wants from Brexit and he is certainly the one driving the Tories right now, its no great secret that he is no fan of the ERG though.

[TepidT2O]

I'm sure Trada and his lot will respect democracy and get off his back now.

!!

Watson has his flaws, let’s be clear...but to deselect him would be an act of unparalleled stupidity

[west_london_red]

!!

Watson has his flaws, let’s be clear...but to deselect him would be an act of unparalleled stupidity

Not to mention a tinge hypocritical when slating the Tories for booting out Clarke, Soams & Co

[killer-heels]

Yes - and I am moving into his constituency in a few weeks. I will do my part! 

SNP strong favourites to take that seat back.

Brilliant. He is one of the first that deserves repeatedly punching in the face, which is some achievement for a Tory.

Wonder if he will stand down and the Tories parachute him into a seat against one of the ones that have lost the whip? He is a Boris arse kisser so they will want him in HoP.

[Red Beret]

I'm sure Trada and his lot will respect democracy and get off his back now.

This is not the time for a 2nd referendum on Tom Watson.

!!

Watson has his flaws, let’s be clear...but to deselect him would be an act of unparalleled stupidity

You have been following British politics lately, right?

[filopastry]

Thought this was an interesting twitter thread from the Ireland/EU viewpoint.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1171447434687336452

Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
4 hours ago, 15 tweets, 2 min read  Read on Twitter
 
So, Phil Hogan, the new Trade Commissioner, spoke to me shortly after the announcement of the new Commission and made some interesting observations about the state of play in the Brexit negotiations

1/ Referring to the NI-only backstop which now seems to be in vogue, if that's the right word, he said Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson had shifted to accepting some kind of differential between NI and GB, eg accepting SPS checks at seaports on GB-NI consignments

2/ Hogan says: "I think there’s movement happening on both sides. Let’s see over the next four weeks how we can advance those intensive negotiations to reach an agreement."

3/ What could that movement be? Hogan said there were "constitutional issues" already in the WA that "might have to be improved upon. If this is a request that’s made, of course we can look at it."

4/ He didn't go into detail but the preamble to the Irish Protocol spells out that the WA does not affect NI's consitutional place within the UK. This is in fact echoed by the UK AG who said in Dec 2018 "the Protocol and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union...

5/...do not affect the principle of consent, or any other provision of the 1998 Agreement, in any way." So, Hogan is perhaps hinting that the Preamble could be strengthened to make that constitutional reassurance stronger.

 
6/ Downing Street and the DUP have both rejected the revival of the NI-only backstop, but this could be a case of no-one wanting to be first to break ranks

7/ But if it were revived, there are some suggestions that the Northern Ireland assembly could be given a stronger oversight role.

8/ However, neither Dublin nor Brussels would accept an oversight role tantamount to a veto. Member states have already been told by the Commission that this would take away the legal certainty the backstop is intended to provide

9/ Hogan also mentioned the north-south dimension in under the GFA. If there was further oversight of the backstop that could be utilised. "I’m sure we can look at it," he said

10/ Hogan repeated that the WA could not be reopened in a "major way" but that the political declaration could, as we have heard countless times, be looked at again.

11/ "The EU has said..very strongly... that the WA that has been agreed remains as it is," [unless "you want to go back to the NI-only backstop which gives security to the island of ireland, gives the protection of the GFA, gives frictionless trade and no hard border...

12/ "and equally it would give Mr Johnson... an independent trade opportunity to do trade deals around the world."

13/ These are very prelimanary suggestions and, as one EU diplomat suggested, the various elements now being discussed are like a "soup" mainly because Number 10 is not yet thinking in a linear way

14/ And of course, again, Number 10 and the DUP have flatly rejected a return to the NI-only backstop. So this of course could be a false dawn, but then again...

[TepidT2O]

This is not the time for a 2nd referendum on Tom Watson.

You have been following British politics lately, right?

Errrrr fair point

[west_london_red]

Possibly.  But there might be the numbers to carry a reformed May deal.

There won’t be, attitudes seem to be hardening among the ERG headbangers against any deal, then you have Frottage egging the Tories on and actively campaigning for No Deal and pulling the Tories and the debate to the extremes. And regardless of what Johnson comes back with I can’t see any of the opposition voting for it, especially now that it’s Johnson who would be bringing it back. Right now I see two outcomes a Tory No Deal, or a Lib/Lab/SNP agreement of some kind and a second referendum.