If Brexit is stopped and we end up staying within the EU, there will be some short-term trouble, and political upheaval (only amounting to endless grumbling, really) for years to come. However, if we go through with Brexit, I am in little doubt that the trouble (I mean violence, huge increases in theft and rioting) will be orders of magnitude greater. With a No-Deal Brexit, I can even envisage martial law being imposed - I think the situation would be that serious. And, as I have already written, I expect that the majority of those involved in such acts of violence, theft and rioting will have voted Leave.
My reasoning is that most of those who voted for Leave did not do it out of (misguided) principle. No, they feel neglected and abused by the EU (because right-wing politicians (and media) have told them this for decades - scapegoating their own failures); this is why most of them voted Leave. Yes, racism too, but that mostly comes out of their feeling put-upon by the 'evil EU' and other foreigners. They are deeply ignorant (in the true sense of the word) of the reasons for their plight. When they realise that they have been duped and lied to (most are not actually totally stupid), their anger will know few bounds. I try to put myself in their position: if I had trusted the 'leadership' of those responsible for Brexit, where I have little, and I end up with even less, and then realise (when it is too late) that I had been betrayed, used and abused - I'd be fucking furious. I likely would fail at any introspection (because that's the way I roll anyway), and place all the blame on those who lead. There will be millions of people feeling like this. We do not need to even consider what the backlash from Remainers will look like. Forget about the fanatical, delusional Remainer ideologues (of which there are certainly plenty): I am in little doubt that the majority of Leavers are fickle creatures and will primarily react based upon their personal, further impoverished circumstances.
I've written before that I am against May's WA. This remains my position. It is a shit deal, but the idea that we should acquiesce because of the threat of No-Deal is no better than the appeasement offered by Chamberlain (if Leavers are going to invoke WWII rhetoric and memes, I see no reason why we cannot too). Although leaving with No-Deal is undoubtedly insane, I am not convinced that it will be worse (in the round - in the longer run) than the slower but protracted version that is May's Withdrawal Agreement. If we return to the EU with our tail between our legs (and I admit there is some risk of this not occurring), as only associate members (not voting powers mind), it will have taught this country a very important lessen.
I think the calculation from many MPs is that they cannot risk the backlash from Brexiteers if we do not leave. It will be a beautiful irony if it is those very same Brexiteer voters who tear up everything in furious retaliation, taking to the streets to demand the heads of all politicians who either voted for Brexit or did nothing to stop it.
To save any confusion about my views and preferences, I wish to make clear that what I think should happen is retraction of A50. Or failing that, a new referendum with Remain on the ticket. I am in no sense routing for No-Deal just because I am against the WA. I am not digging for any of this; I just fear it. Though, just not quite enough to acquiesce to May's threats of No-Deal chaos.
Roughly the same opinion as myself. no deal is a disaster, we are being threatened with a disaster to cover Mays arse. thing is what has May actually achieved in 2 yrs of negotations, she caved in on the first phase of talks and kicked the WA down the road to the next phase.
We are now about to sell Ireland out as the only solution is for NI to remain in SM+CU and a sea border.
So the question is when does the s,, really hit the fan, March 2019 or March 2021.
A free trade deal will take at least 6yrs, no customs deal means tariffs on all goods from the EU and rest of world, it means chaos at our ports, not to mention all the co-operation agreements like open skies.
Leave have argued a no deal is nothing to fear, all the scaremongering is absurd.
They will be reminded when they try to blame the EU etc when chaos hits.
When people loose jobs and inflation hits, imo. inflation will upset millions of gammons, they were promised there would be no tariffs, tariffs have brought about inflation, it's wiping out the value of their pension. the same applies to the low paid and unemployed of course, the ones who belived they had nothing to loose voting leave. then there millions who just want the chaos to end, yet there are no solutions as it will take years to solve some of some of these problems but we will never solve the important ones as it would re joining the EU, I also agree about the public taking to the streets, they were promised this chaos was scaremongering and project fear.
I don't think our politicians fear riots, Labour politicians fear having to face a few angry red faced gammons in their face giving them grief over not respecting democracy.
Tory politicians are in a more difficult situation as most Tory voters support Brexit.
Either way, they don't fear riots.
It's hard to believe but like it or not the most left wing leaders ideology is going to protect the Tory party from loosing millions of Tory voters at the expense of the Labour party loosing millions of Labour voters.
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