Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19

[Red Beret]

Well I said I wanted to see City below the 90 points line - didn't expect to get my wish quite so soon though!

Funny how I find these tables easier to believe when we're not top!

[Sangria]

The new chart isn't based on the aplt.  It's one I came up with a few years ago and forgot about.  The blue lines indicate the average number of points won home and away by the champions adjusted to hit a 90 point total.

They look like those graphs on election nights, where you have holds and targeted marginals that total up towards the majority mark.

[Iska]

They look like those graphs on election nights, where you have holds and targeted marginals that total up towards the majority mark.

Any chance of mocking up a massive swingometer to show the past fortnight?

[Anthony]

Any chance of mocking up a massive swingometer to show the past fortnight?

Who needs to mock anything?? ?

[johnny74]

Your last line has the opposite effect! 

Hasn't anyone noticed that since we've been applying the law correctly, our form has been great?

Single handedly you've undone all the hard work and we're destined to crash down the league.

I realised that after I posted it. Christmas tiredness.

[Prof]

I realised that after I posted it. Christmas tiredness.

No worries

We managed to repair the damage... My reply was all part of the plan 

[Hij]

There is simply no way on earth we will even play to par for the next two games, let alone gain points in the APLT.

I would just be happy keeping a positive APLT score.

[Hunts Cross]

Another week when we flat-line and make no progress. Our comeuppance is coming against Arsenal, I fear. They have conceded only 25 goals in 19 games, which is 6 less than United, so it will be tough. Not the best basis to prepare for a trip to the Emptihad.

[mikey_LFC]

There is a good tracker on this website of leagues and the probabilities of teams winning each league on this site:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Apparently we've got a 72% chance of winning the league.

Also according to their rankings we are now the best football team in the world! (obviously)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

Calculated based on the percentage of points we'd take when playing a calculated "average" team.

[hitnrock]

Leave it up to Liverpool supporters to come up with arbitrary ways to declare themselves the best team in the world. The APLT is lie. All projection models are a lie. We will bottle it like usual.

[KurtVerbose]

Leave it up to Liverpool supporters to come up with arbitrary ways to declare themselves the best team in the world. The APLT is lie. All projection models are a lie. We will bottle it like usual.

While I agree that we may bottle it, the APLT isn't a projection model.

[TepidT2O]

We will get the yips at some point I reckon.

Just not got to lose our heads when that happens

[Frizzo]

Leave it up to Liverpool supporters to come up with arbitrary ways to declare themselves the best team in the world. The APLT is lie. All projection models are a lie. We will bottle it like usual.

If we wanted to declare ourselves the best team, why wouldn't we look at the table?

[No666]

I think some of you are failing to understand hitnrock's noble post.

[LFCTikiTaka]

While I agree that we may bottle it, the APLT isn't a projection model.

*Woosh*

[wige]

Leave it up to Liverpool supporters to come up with arbitrary ways to declare themselves the best team in the world. The APLT is lie. All projection models are a lie. We will bottle it like usual.

Yep, no doubt. We're a collective fuck up, doomed to perennially experience glorious, brutal failure at the last.

[Blinis]

There is a good tracker on this website of leagues and the probabilities of teams winning each league on this site:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Apparently we've got a 72% chance of winning the league.

Also according to their rankings we are now the best football team in the world! (obviously)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

Calculated based on the percentage of points we'd take when playing a calculated "average" team.

While I get the irony, let me just say here for the sake of the argument that FiveThirtyEight and MCoA models, and most xG models relying on simulations, in their current calibrations and specifications, are sophisticated form tables. They get way too much credit, imho. I am much more fond of Prof's model, which is simpler, understandable, so we know what we get and why.

If you are looking to "best football team in the world" type of thing, good old Elo ranking is the place to go: http://clubelo.com/. LFC is 4th, tied with Bayern. Barcelona is the top team at the moment.

[Nessy76]

While I get the irony, let me just say here for the sake of the argument that FiveThirtyEight and MCoA models, and most xG models relying on simulations, in their current calibrations and specifications, are sophisticated form tables. They get way too much credit, imho. I am much more fond of Prof's model, which is simpler, understandable, so we know what we get and why.

If you are looking to "best football team in the world" type of thing, good old Elo ranking is the place to go: http://clubelo.com/. LFC is 4th, tied with Bayern. Barcelona is the top team at the moment.

Of course. Teams should all be ranked exclusively by their ability to produce seminal synth pop classics.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Of course. Teams should all be ranked exclusively by their ability to produce seminal synth pop classics.

It's a Lovren Thing?

Mr. Blueshite?

[Nessy76]

It's a Lovren Thing?

Mr. Blueshite?

Thought that might conjure you out of the woodwork!

Still haven't given up hope of having the Kop sing Minnie Riperton for Dejan "Lovren you is easy cos you're beautiful..." mainly because of that high note. I reckon we can pull that off. (Or whoever put his Brussels sprouts on Leicester can, at least.)

[hitnrock]

While I agree that we may bottle it, the APLT isn't a projection model.

If we wanted to declare ourselves the best team, why wouldn't we look at the table?

[Brian Blessed]

We just had out best half season ever, there is realistically no way we can do it again. Expect to see us trend back to the 90 point line soon. If we are lucky, we won't drop below it.

[Anthony]

We just had out best half season ever, there is realistically no way we can do it again. Expect to see us trend back to the 90 point line soon. If we are lucky, we won't drop below it.

Damn, because as things stand we've got to do it all over again if we want to be sure of winning the league...

[Qston]

We will get the yips at some point I reckon.

Just not got to lose our heads when that happens

The team won't. Many on RAWK will. Mainly in the half time thread is traditional I believe

[KurtVerbose]

*Woosh*

Not really.

[Romford_Red]

Got a bad feeling about today's match. Rafa is a top top chess player as we know from miracles he performed for us in the past. This will be a tough test for us.

The thing is, the scenario of being 1st at Christmas, IMPROVING our form and still missing out is actually impossible.
We've dropped 6 points, so to improve our form in he 2nd half of the season, we'd have to drop only 5 points.

We are 6 points ahead.

[TepidT2O]

The team won't. Many on RAWK will. Mainly in the half time thread is traditional I believe

Oh, I did mean the fans... believe me, the fans are the ones with the issues!

The collective gasps from the mainstand when we screw up...

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Matchweek 19

[RooiBefok]

APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 19

[RooiBefok]

APLT Revolving Par : Matchweek 19

[RooiBefok]

LFC Current & Projected Form : Matchweek 19

[Mr_Shane]

The thing is, the scenario of being 1st at Christmas, IMPROVING our form and still missing out is actually impossible.
We've dropped 6 points, so to improve our form in he 2nd half of the season, we'd have to drop only 5 points.

We are 6 points ahead.

Actually 16 wins and 3 draws in the remaining games will mean we do win the title. If we do manage that,  it means we take points off both City and Spurs.

[emitime]

Actually 16 wins and 3 draws in the remaining games will mean we do win the title. If we do manage that,  it means we take points off both City and Spurs.

17 wins and 2 losses would be equal to that in points, but doesn't guarantee the title.

[Red Beret]

Technically, we could draw all our remaining games with "big five" teams, and as long as we win the other matches we'd probably win the league.  But I'd say we have to anticipate and accept that we're going to lose at least two games in the season, even if it's a freak result.

[Prof]

Just placed my order before tomorrow's update...

[Ycuzz]

Yep, they're all out - everywhere. You took it all!





Hey. Curtains!

[Prof]

Hey. Curtains!

[Hij]

Oh god.

[drmick]

I know this might get lost in the jizzfest tomorrow, but I wouldn't mind seeing the relegation APLT again. In the real table there seems to be three groups in their now:

1. Bottom 3/4
2. One bad set of results puts you in bottom group
3. The group formerly known as midtable security, now known as two defeats equals relegation scrap

Would be interesting to see if the APLT holds out.

[Titi Camara]

How long for the funny graph?