Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19  (Read 70641 times)

Offline Prof

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The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« on: August 4, 2018, 02:54:44 PM »
The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19

This is a continuation of the last seven APLT threads which ran over the last seven seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top six teams from last season indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.



The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 04:01:57 AM by Prof »

Offline Cohiba

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1 on: August 4, 2018, 04:50:19 PM »
Thanks Prof, for doing this awesome thread again. Getting excited now for the season. I think many more than usual will be checking the APLT thread out this year   ;D
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #2 on: August 4, 2018, 05:23:09 PM »
APLT Full Listing 2018/19 Season
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #3 on: August 4, 2018, 05:53:35 PM »
Thanks for running this thread again lads, it's always a good read.

Big chance for us to gain on par in the first 5 games, if we can get maximum points or close to it then that will set us up very nicely for the rest of the season. Interesting to note as well that we only have one par 1 game in our last 9 which suggests that, on paper at least, we have a favourable run in - could be massive if we're still involved in a title challenge as we all hope to be.
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Offline flashman

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #4 on: August 5, 2018, 06:23:18 AM »
Thanks Prof.
Page bookmarked.
Upward sloping line please!

Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #5 on: August 5, 2018, 07:35:42 AM »
That Arsenal line disappearing at week 29 last season still makes me laugh.

Offline McrRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #6 on: August 5, 2018, 08:58:09 AM »
Nice one Prof.
It's nearly here

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The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #7 on: August 5, 2018, 11:41:06 AM »
:wellin

Looking forward to a consistently upward trajectory for the Red line.

Offline The Last Known Survivor

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #8 on: August 5, 2018, 11:51:17 AM »
Favourite thread on here... Can't wait.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #9 on: August 5, 2018, 02:48:23 PM »
So, the non-top 6 par 1 teams are:

Everton
West Ham
Burnley
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
Leicester
Newcastle

I wonder how many of them will fail to meet the standards of that privilege this season? You have to guess that Everton, West Ham and Leicester should do alright this season.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #10 on: August 5, 2018, 03:17:54 PM »
That Arsenal line disappearing at week 29 last season still makes me laugh.

A point behind us at week 24 and then off the chart by week 29 ;D
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #11 on: August 5, 2018, 03:38:47 PM »
So, the non-top 6 par 1 teams are:

Everton
West Ham
Burnley
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
Leicester
Newcastle

I wonder how many of them will fail to meet the standards of that privilege this season? You have to guess that Everton, West Ham and Leicester should do alright this season.

We've beaten all of them in the respective Away fixtures except Everton (ahead of CL fixture at the tail end of season) and Newcastle (still finding our feet early in the season). Granted Burnley, Palace and Leicester games were close so maintaining those results won't be easy. West Ham and Bournemouth were convincing wins. Considering our Home form last season (unbeaten in the league and had a few unlucky draws - Everton, West Brom & Spurs by ref decisions), these Away fixtures could be crucial. I'm confident about out par 3 Away fixtures more than before as they are

Huddersfield
Watford
Cardiff
Brighton
Wolves
Fulham

A couple of them could be tough to win, but we can still make up if we sneak a couple of wins against other Top 6 sides as a bonus.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #12 on: August 5, 2018, 05:58:20 PM »
Not sure about the right thread to post this, but this looks informative on who are all involved in the build-up and who are all involved in assisting/shooting. Source - @Tacticsplatform from twitter.



Firmino is involved way more in the build-up than Coutinho did, Salah shoots more than Mane but Mane builds-up more than Salah. Solanke doesn't look bad there at all. Matip is really good in building-up and shows how much better we became with Karius in build-up than Mignolet. With Alisson, there's scope to improve more. Robertson is a major upgrade on Moreno in both build-up & attack. He's looking elite for a full-back. Henderson isn't in a bad place there at all - I predicted him to do well in packing (numbers of which is not available to public). Can's really unexpected and he scores well in the build-up, but his negatives were mostly tactical and Keita will probably do better than him. Overall, it's an interesting graphic and the twitter handle has it for a few other sides that we can compare with.

Man United's graph is dreadful as expected  ;D
« Last Edit: August 5, 2018, 05:59:56 PM by PoetryInMotion »

Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #13 on: August 5, 2018, 09:06:20 PM »

Firmino is so good.  Encouraging to see Solanke edging towards his quadrant.  Wijnaldum shouldn’t be there though should he?

Quote
Man United's graph is dreadful as expected  ;D
Oh, go on...

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #14 on: August 5, 2018, 10:46:00 PM »
This is Man United's graph. Look at the numbers in our graph and theirs.



City's graph is off charts though. Simply brilliant.


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #15 on: August 5, 2018, 10:48:24 PM »
Man United aren't shooting enough. They aren't creating much.

We're pretty good and can improve more with our signings. We're shooting more than every other side in the league. We're shooting a bit more than City, but creating lesser than them. Our build up is better than most sides in the league though - only Man City and Arsenal have a better xG Build up. Spurs are close to us, a bit behind. Also we're a bit more direct than City, so that may affect build up numbers. But our creation numbers are up there, just behind City.
« Last Edit: August 5, 2018, 10:57:25 PM by PoetryInMotion »

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #16 on: August 5, 2018, 11:01:13 PM »
Yeah, Wijnaldum is a bit odd. It looks like he's creating more than most players, only behind Milner, the full-backs and the forwards. But, he seems to be not involved in our build up play.

Ox is not in the graph. Would be interesting to see his numbers.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #17 on: August 6, 2018, 05:04:56 PM »
Ah it's finally here! Love this thread

Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #18 on: August 6, 2018, 05:06:50 PM »
Ah it's finally here! Love this thread

Best thread on the site.

Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #19 on: August 6, 2018, 05:08:52 PM »
Man United aren't shooting enough. They aren't creating much.

We're pretty good and can improve more with our signings. We're shooting more than every other side in the league. We're shooting a bit more than City, but creating lesser than them. Our build up is better than most sides in the league though - only Man City and Arsenal have a better xG Build up. Spurs are close to us, a bit behind. Also we're a bit more direct than City, so that may affect build up numbers. But our creation numbers are up there, just behind City.

Thank god you described that table. No idea what a xGbuildup is.

Offline G Richards

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #20 on: August 6, 2018, 07:05:14 PM »
This is a great thread, thank you very much for all the work to keep it going.

I half wonder if 71 points for a top four finish might need adjusting at some point, since we have 6 good teams vying for 4 CL spots, and presumably (without knowing for sure) they will spur each other on a bit in order to finish top four. Just a layman's comment, as I don't know the stats on that, but I suspect the bar will go higher as two good teams will miss out.

Great work though on the overall concept. It's a great thread to track during the season.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #21 on: August 6, 2018, 07:12:18 PM »
Another year and here we go again ladies and I can safely say, as like last year, I haven't a chuffin gnu what this is all meant to achieve, but, whatever it is, enjoy yourselves and keep on trucking pilgrims.  :thumbup


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #22 on: August 6, 2018, 08:21:14 PM »
Looking forward to seeing the season unfold in here.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #23 on: August 6, 2018, 10:29:59 PM »
Aaand here it is. Luvverly. Thanks Prof, as always, look forward to follow this thru the season.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #24 on: August 6, 2018, 10:58:45 PM »
Another year and here we go again ladies and I can safely say, as like last year, I haven't a chuffin gnu what this is all meant to achieve, but, whatever it is, enjoy yourselves and keep on trucking pilgrims.  :thumbup


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #25 on: August 7, 2018, 06:48:54 AM »
This is our season, Prof, make it count with balloons and fireworks every time you post!  ;D
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #26 on: August 7, 2018, 11:41:56 AM »
This is our season, Prof, make it count with balloons and fireworks every time you post!  ;D
For those of you who follow this, you'll know what I mean when I say, we have no chance.  Won't win a single game this season.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #27 on: August 7, 2018, 12:50:30 PM »
I'm not going to do it, and I wouldn't expect anyone to do so, but it would be interesting to see how well the APLT correlates to the final league table at any point of season vs the actual table at that point.  Just to see if it is a better predictor than the actual table.

It would be far too time consuming and the APLT is a fun endeavor in it's own right, I always check in on it.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #28 on: August 7, 2018, 04:01:00 PM »
For those of you who follow this, you'll know what I mean when I say, we have no chance.  Won't win a single game this season.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #29 on: August 7, 2018, 04:50:58 PM »
No, expectations are unrealistically high. We drew too many at home last season, I don't see that changing.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #30 on: August 10, 2018, 04:35:24 AM »
Love your work Prof, looking forward to another great APLT season!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #31 on: August 10, 2018, 03:03:07 PM »
Love your work Prof, looking forward to another great APLT season!

Same here, Prof!!!  Thank you for all the work you put in!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #32 on: August 12, 2018, 06:37:29 PM »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #33 on: August 12, 2018, 07:01:39 PM »
Bugger. Much prefer the real Premier League table tonight.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #34 on: August 12, 2018, 07:03:25 PM »
Already lost ground on Spurs and City. Simply unacceptable.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #35 on: August 13, 2018, 07:33:52 AM »
Looking at the graph from last year shows how important an almost flawless start is, if City are to be beaten then late season pressure and making our games against them count will probably be key to it, but for those to matter we have to be, at worst, hotly breathing down their necks. Slightly ominous that they've already beaten a rival away while resting star players, but there you go.

Offline nvssudheer

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #36 on: August 13, 2018, 07:57:48 AM »
Already lost ground on Spurs and City. Simply unacceptable.

Same old Liverpool  :no
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #37 on: August 13, 2018, 08:36:35 AM »
Slightly ominous that they've already beaten a rival away while resting star players, but there you go.
Probably just about the best time to play away to Arsenal.. New manager in their first game

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #38 on: August 13, 2018, 01:25:12 PM »
APLT Full Table : Matchday 1
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #39 on: August 13, 2018, 01:26:01 PM »
APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchday 1
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”