Thirteen Reasons we are totally beating Real Madrid
#11: Loris Karius
I think in this world there are two types of truths. There are the
acceptable truths - the ones you believe to be true and don't or no longer question them. You have gathered enough evidence either consciously or subconsciously that allows your brain to believe you have an informed opinion on the matter to the extent you know the truth.
If, for example, all you ever hear about keeper from pundits is he is great, and you youtube him and find plenty of compilations of him making extraordinary saves, and you read articles about how great he is including a quote thrown in from a former top keeper endorsing him and it includes a nice graphic that shows him as being at a higher point than lots of other supposedly good keepers at saves. That is a horde of evidence. It's enough really to state conclusively in your head that
Rafael Marvelosa is world class.
So that opinion becomes locked in. It's yours. You know it to be true. You have proven it to be true. Anything stating otherwise is simply wrong. And for many, the statement that Karius has improved and is now good enough to be our #1 is such an example.
Likewise, for many, they cannot move past the "first impression". For many the first they saw of our beautiful German... WOW, where did that even come from?? ?? He does have a remarkably symmetrical face though doesn't he? He also hides his natural gingerness well. Wait, where was I?
Oh yes,
first impressions are lasting impressions. So if your horde of evidence on Karius is from watching him look shaky his first 10 games, Raty Neville telling you he is shite, Dopey Neville backing him up, an ex-pro like Ray Clemence saying Butland is better, and when you pop "Karius fail" into google being met with videos of him kicking the ball out for a corner or
almost getting tackled by Welbeck against Arsenal - that sort of evidence makes a very big mountain to get over. And therefore some will still be stuck on the opinion that he is not good enough. This is merely form. Even now he still does things like close his eyes when being hit on crosses (all keepers do), parries the ball into danger (again, they all do), doesn't dive for shots he cannot reach (not to get repetitive here but...) or punches the ball more than catching (we'll get back to this). So it can be hard to move from that opinion.
This is where we start moving into
unacceptable truths. Things which we can't, or don't want, to be true. As mentioned above, for some they are still at this stage of denial with Karius - that he is even a good keeper now. However, the even more unacceptable truth for almost everyone is likely that he was always this good.
That 10 game period is a mere aberration on an otherwise solid set of numbers year on year. So for the rest of this article, I ask you to try and ignore whatever evidence horde you have accrued for Karius and, if you still don't rate him, to just continue with an open mind.
So first of all, let me introduce you to our very own produced goalkeeping radars. Many of you have probably seen such radars before from the likes of Ted Knutson, or long before him in American sports, but I don't think anybody has had a crack at producing them for keepers before. This became a project for JCB and I to produce radars to compare Liverpool & Madrid players for this game. If you want to read a bit about the process for doing these,
you can do so here. But here I will just just straight in.
BAM!
Pretty, but what does it mean?He is very aggressive off his line on crosses, is challenged for a very high ratio of those, rarely fails to win the ball he comes out for, and elects to punch rather than catch - which makes sense as it is often risky to try catching balls when someone is barging into you
(remember Mignolet v Carroll?).
In terms of distribution, he aims to quickly release the ball with throws rather than kicking on counter attacks, does so with high accuracy (he is 1 missed throw from 100%), the quality/effectiveness of his distributions are at an elite level also and all distributions inside his own half are to a high accuracy. When he goes long though, he is rarely finding a red shirt. However, as PoP and I discussed in Karius' thread, the aim there is likely as much about creating pressing events on a retreating backline for second balls than trying to win flick ons with our midget attack. I go into why we looked at specifically these metrics in Karius thread if you are interested to read more.
In terms of shot stopping - think of difficulty and save % as being linked. With an average difficulty an average keeper saves an average number of shots. Logically. So if difficulty increases (e.g. you face close range and fewer long range shots) then an average shot stopper will save less than average. Likewise if shot difficulty decreases (e.g. you face a higher ratio of long shots than close range) then an average shot stopper will save more. This is reflected in save performance, which is measured as the average difficulty of his saves vs how many he actually saves. Also, Dzeko aside, he rarely parries the ball back into dangerous areas in his goal mouth - which is fortunate as being a side that has relatively few defenders in the box when we face shots compared to the likes of Burnley, any shots parried out into danger has a very high chance of facing follow up shots.
The one part I would like to focus on is goals conceded and clean sheets per 90 minutes. I have a theory that a sweeper keeper reduces the amount of shots a team faces and thus can actually prevent more goals despite, statistically, not being a world class shot stopper. Unfortunately this is almost impossible to measure, however there are various examples to support this. The best one being Dubravka to Newcastle in January. They had problems defensively all season, they brought in Dubravka in January and their shot stopping performance went from league average to almost league worst. Ouch! Then Newcastle fans rejoiced, applauded the new keeper as being the main factor in their rapid ascent out of the relegation battle. That makes no sense right? Well, the main difference for Newcastle was that the number of shots on target that they faced almost halved in that time. And while it is hard to prove that is down to any one thing, there is a strong argument a sweeper keeper would have that impact if you think about it logically. A high starting position will turn breakaway chances behind the defence into ball recoveries and clearances. Aggression on crosses turns close range headers into punches out of the box. A higher defensive line turns an open team shape with spaces to play though into a compact one offering no easy passing lanes to the opposition.
We see a similar thing occurring with Karius. His goals conceded and clean sheets per 90 numbers are the best in the league and stack up well against anyone in europe. His style of goalkeeping has a tendency to turn decent scoring chances for a "line-keeper" into point blank blocks or clearances. His aggression on crosses has reduced the number of close range headers we would likely have faced and his command of the penalty area has seen the number of chances conceded in the 6yard box fall from 12 in 19 games with Mignolet to just 1 in 19 with Karius. Wow!
And so while it is easy to source data to see what percentage of shots are being saved by a keeper, it is almost impossible to source data to see how many shots they are preventing entirely. Which is a shame because an elite keeper will be saving 80% of the shots they face, while an elite sweeper keeper is saving 100% of the shots they prevent. For example:-
Karius uses his special forces training to appear in his camosuit out of nowhere to clear the ball.
No shot recorded by opta = no save. Not to mention that in terms of how analysts value saves, a shot by a player who has set himself and has time to take aim at the goal from close range with no defenders applying pressure is a high value chance with opta - the proverbial "big chance". Whereas a shot where the keeper has charged the player down and is blocked at point blank range is not marked as such. Therefore a sweeper keeper is turning big chances into low scoring chances by being pro-active rather than staying on his line like:-
Auba can swivel and hit one of the corners from here with no pressure. But Karius turns it into just a 5,61% scoring chance according to opta. 
Watch how early he reacts to Virgil's mistake here. He's on top of Rondon before he can even control the ball turning what would likely be a clear goalscoring chance into just a 5,02% scoring chance according to opta. 
This was the moment I was sure he would make it here. Any other keeper gets back on his line one the ball passes the near post. Instead Karius is bearing down who whatever fucker even thinks about getting a shot off near his goal. Love that!
But how does he stack up against Navas?
In a word - pretty fucking amazingly well. Navas seems to be absolutely shite on crosses. He isn't particularly aggressive coming out, almost avoids entirely coming out if he would be challenged in doing so, and yet still drops and misses the ball on occasion. As mentioned before, that feeds into your shot stopping metrics because if you are staying on your line, you will face more shots. If you are dropping or missing the ball when coming out, you will face shots that you are not even set to save.
Likewise, when looking at distribution, the noticeable difference between the two is in throwing accuracy. A study of goalkeeper distributions in MLS showed that thrown distributions intercepted by the opponent had the highest ratio of resulting in shots on target than all other failed distribution types. Which makes sense because throws are usually short in range and while both teams are in the transition phase meaning whoever gets the ball has a high chance of being effective with it. So seeing that Navas' throwing accuracy is around average across the keepers in the top 4 european leagues indicates he is likely giving up goal scoring chances with his own distribution.
So when you look at the goals conceded and clean sheet numbers, it is no surprise he is struggling for Madrid. He is doing little to prevent shots for Madrid, in fact he may actually be part of the reason they face so many for a side of their dominance in terms of possession. And while he excels in making sure whatever saves he does make clear the danger areas, the majority of the shots he is facing are not that difficult and therefore while he is saving a higher ratio of shots on target than Karius, this is likely due to a comparatively much larger number from long range (Karius faces the lowest ratio of all keepers I looked at). Hence why his save performance is actually ranked lower than Karius' in the data.
What else you got to prove any of that is true though?
This is the goalkeeping equivalent of the shot maps you have likely all seen for forwards which, I believe, we are the first to produce and by we I mean JCB. As you can see, Karius rarely lets players get a shot off inside his own 6 yard box which is important. 30-40% of all shots in the 6 yard box result in a goal compared to 12-18% in the outer penalty box and ~3-4% from outside the penalty box. Which means if you can prevent teams touching the ball in there, you are going to reduce the number of goals you concede.
One of the ways we have improved here under Karius is at set pieces. Karius no longer wants any defenders near him. This gives him space to operate in. It makes any attacker grappling with him easier to be seen by officials and offside at the time any shot is taken making it likely he will be flagged for a foul / obstruction. Plus they are offside for any rebounds. Karius also pushes people off him well, as he showed recently against Palace when Benteke and one of their center backs were trying to sandwich him on corners.
This is likely a large part of the reason why people feel calmer on set pieces now. Karius is aggressive in dealing with them, takes no shit from opposition players, and has a setup which gives him the best possible chance of succeeding. In contrast to Navas, you see a large number of point blank shots resulting in goals which would lead me to ask to what extent his reluctance to deal with crosses feeds into that? I think I have another way to demonstrate this though.
There are a few things I want to point out here. First of all, those 4 goals that would worry me in the center of the goal are, from left to right:-
1. Giroud's header (the orange dot on the edge of the 6 yard box) which he was positioned near post for and he couldn't get across for.
2.
Vardy tap in v Leicester. Through ball to Mahrez right of penalty box, Karius closes him down, squared to Vardy for empty goal. Video linked
3. Livermore's scramble in the box goal for West Brom
4. Rashford's 2nd for United last month.
Those other two that are to the right but still a little central are Kane's penalty and Gundogan's tapin for City in the 4-3.
Aside from that, all the rest look pretty tight to the post which is good from a positioning point of view. He is covering almost all of his goal almost all of the time. Players are by and large needing to put the ball in the corners of the goal to get anything from him.
My other worry would be the amount of shots beating him on the right vs on his left. More worrying would be that is the hand he broke. This would be a question you would want answered with scouting. However, when you watch back his saves the last two season you can see he is not protecting that hand by letting hard shots past him. He has been diving at players feet with that hand and also making some big saves of hard shots with it (e.g. Diame v Newcastle). So it is just a coincidence in a small data sample.
Looking at the type of shots we are conceding off of, we have massively reduced the number from open play. "Other" would be penalties(2) and indirect free kicks (2).
Now to compare to a Navas.
That looks a bit scattergunny - which would worry me. I won't even bother analysing the shots away from the posts and why here. If he wants to appear to be so shite that almost all the goals he concedes are quite central in the goal, then he needs to pay someone to analyse and justify the reasons for that. It's too much work to do on the fly.
Seriously though, here you can start to see the cost of being weak on crosses. Look at how many of those are from indirect freekicks (3) and corners (6). He is conceding a goal from such situations every 2ľ games compared to 4ľ games for Karius. And that is just set pieces. How many goals from open play crosses result from the same weakness to deal with balls in the air?
Navas recently warned Liverpool that he plays behind the best defence in the world. I am sure he is a man of his word. However, if you are ranked 32/96 in terms of goals conceded per 90 behind the best defence in the world
®, then there can only be one possible explanation for that.
Calamity Kaylor is fucking shite! Oh, and if you have made it this far, and I am sure few will have because I went completely OTT on this one, then I have one last thing for you. The answer to the question "what might happen on penalties?"
That is pretty close guys. Nothing in it really. Penalties in 90 minutes are rarely saved, truth be told. Something like 81% are scored in the Premier League era. Of the 19% that are not, some will miss the target, some will hit the woodwork, very few are actually saved. Penalties is a different beast though as PoP & Trend will tell you. It's more a mind game than anything else. If you always dive left you will likely save one or two on average. But what if they see you always diving left and just keep sticking them right. If you stand tall if stops them going down the middle and forces them to pick corners to prevent you seeing late and saving any that are too central. But you likely won't get near penalties passed into the corners by the likes of Kroos, Modric, Isco et al. A keeper coach I one spoke to said when in doubt, dive to your left on left footers, right on right footers.
But Liverpool keepers find their own way to handle shoot outs. And Karius comes across as being confident and crazy enough to find his own way to unnerve the Madrid takers too. But this is all redundant because, as I keep mentioning, we are putting 6 past them and turning Kiev into the scene of our very own Red Wedding. An absolute blood bath that will shake people to their very core. But more on that in parts 10-1. For now, here is a some of all Karius best moments this season. You have earned it sticking with me this long. Allez! Allez! Allez!
<![CDATA[<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/yv6lGICXH7U" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/yv6lGICXH7U</a>]]> Previous Preview Parts:-
Intro,
13. Klopp,
12. Travelling KopA massive thanks, again, to JCB for all the help in producing all of the above. Without him this would all just be unsubtantiated words on a page.