From the progress thread:
The most interesting thing here for me is how our 2017-18 season is extremely similar to City's 2016-17 season. Only a difference in 2 points and 1 place in the table, but all the underlying numbers are very similar. So, now we need to do the same leap that they took this season and while it maybe harder for us to do that considering the differences in the resources available to both the sides in terms of spending, we have an equally good manager who we can be sure is getting us to take that leap and eventually get there.
Very interesting observation that.
So, on the face of it, what did City do?*
THE SYSTEM: -They switched to 4-3-3 last spring, having seen us have huge success with that system in the autumn/winter. Pep copied Klopp basically, with a few tweaks
We already play it, so this option isn't open to us, though of course changing to a different system is. If we sign another top attacker I feel we may see more of 4-2-3-1 next season, but still expect 4-3-3 to be the first-choice option.
No major change here.THE CENTRE-BACK: -They added a £55m left-sided central defender in Laporte. We've already done this with £75m on van Dijk. While many would still like a partner for him, I don't expect this now that we have five options at the heart of our defence. Big season for Lovren and Matip ahead.
No change here.THE GOALKEEPER: -Bravo's shot-stopping had significantly let them down throughout 2016/17, so they upgraded him. I posted this in the Karius thread:
What's interesting here is that Ederson doesn't rank highly in terms of shot-stopping either - but clearly he's a fantastic all-round goalkeeper, and they face fewer shots than us anyway due to their better control of possession. Karius has clearly been an upgrade on Mignolet in terms of his sweeping, but our saves per goal is extremely similar to City's last campaign. Using the stats available and the good old eye test, I don't believe we can conclude that Karius has been an upgrade on Mignolet in terms of his shot-stopping. Like Mignolet, he makes some very good saves from distance, but you never feel like he can bail us out from the bigger, closer-range chances we concede. (In fact I think Mignolet's reflexes are of a naturally higher level - though of course he is much slower to close the angle. Swings and roundabouts)
City were ruthless with Bravo and have reaped the rewards. With Mignolet likely seeking first-team football elsewhere anyway, I think we should at least attempt to do the same, whilst acknowledging Karius' improvement and place in the squad - should he want it.
Probable change here.THE FULL-BACKS: -Sagna, Zabaleta, Clichy and Kolarov were all let go. Walker, Mendy and Danilo were brought in, with Delph converted from midfield. We have younger, better options here in Trent, Clyne, Robertson and Moreno, but are they title-winning full-backs? I think Trent and Robertson have shown a level recently which suggests they can be. Time is on their side. Clyne has shown in the past that he also could be. Given Gomez's ability to cover right-back, too, I would leave that flank alone until at least next summer. Moreno has been here four years now, though, and only fleetingly looked like fulfilling his potential. For me it's time to take a risk there and perhaps look to convert a left-footed winger, especially given Klopp's long-standing preference for a narrow, inverted left-winger. I love Robertson, and he should certainly start next season as first-choice, but an attacking project like Sessegnon who can also cover elsewhere could be a game-changer in the future. Equally, though, that player might just not be out there, in which case we stick with Moreno as back-up.
Possible (small) change here.THE MIDFIELD: ---> Perhaps the real parallel to their full-back conundrum last summer is our central midfield area. Their's was already more than sorted with Fernandinho, Gundogan, KDB and Silva; the best set in the league by a distance. Like our full-backs, we have a serviceable set of midfielders, but it's clearly a more important area of the pitch, with more pressing situations to sort out. We have a couple of ageing options in Lallana and Milner, a player coming to the end of his contract in Can, a player out until at least December in Oxlade-Chamberlain, and in Henderson and Wijnaldum two players who implement Klopp's off-the-ball strategy tremendously but are perhaps lacking in creativity once we win the ball back.
In the same way Pep's full-backs were holding his football back last season, perhaps the same is true of our midfielders, all in different ways, despite their undoubted best efforts? Let's say Keita is our 'Walker' for the midfield; a guaranteed dynamic game-changing upgrade. I feel confident the versatile 'Danilo' role (in midfield) can be shared between Lallana, Milner and Oxlade when he returns - a Maddison feels a year too early in terms of resources.
The question, then, becomes where do we use the 'Mendy' (ideally one who stays fit!) resources? Is it in holding midfield to directly replace Can and compete with Henderson, or do we look to semi-convert Wijnaldum into that role, allowing us to spend more money on a more attacking midfielder, perhaps one like Lemar or Fekir who can also play wide? This would also make sense should we look to use 4-2-3-1 more often.
An interesting conundrum for sure. If indeed one or the other, I'd be leaning towards the latter, given Wijnaldum's progression defensively/regression offensively and the lack of outstanding options out there for that holding role.
Definite change here.THE FORWARDS: -City also added depth to their attacking midfield/forward line in Bernardo Silva. He hasn't hit the ground running as much as I expected him to, but there's little doubting his pedigree as a footballer and a similar signing may be required for us to replace Coutinho's space in the squad (i.e. Lemar/Fekir). What's often forgotten, though, is that City also signed a quality young striker in Gabriel Jesus last January, having dismissed the talented Iheanacho as a long-term option. We have similar decisions to make on Solanke, Sturridge, Ings and Origi. I can't see more than one remaining in the squad next season, which means another player capable of filling that central spot feels a necessity, particularly if Brewster leaves. Is our Bernardo/Jesus one player capable of playing across the front line, rather than more of a wide player who can also fill in midfield? Or would the Wijnaldum conversion allow us to sign a more fixed forward as well as a a Coutinho replacement? And what of Harry Wilson?
Definite change here.Personally, I feel a goalkeeper, one midfielder and one forward are the three imperative signings to our squad. Exactly what profile/calibre/positions these take up remains to be seen. Beyond that, we have decisions to make at CB, LB and potentially another midfielder/forward. It's all a question of who's available and where we consider the most urgent areas to fill.
*I'm not saying we should copy them. We have a different manager with a different set of resources, ideas and players. Just thought it would be interesting to follow up that observation. Similarly to City, with the right 3-4 signings on top of Keita, I think we can definitely take massive steps forward next campaign.