Author Topic: Elections in Europe  (Read 222057 times)

Offline stoa

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #800 on: October 15, 2017, 07:41:18 pm »
So an estimated 57.4% for the two right-wing parties. Far from great but they got 53.8% in 1999 (according to Wikipedia) when they entered government together, so this isn't completely unprecedented.

Also, the Social Democrats haven't collapsed either, marginally increasing their share of the vote from last time (26.8%)

Do you think there's any chance of an Austrian in-out EU referendum now, or even with a possible new right-wing coalition, does the Eurosceptism only go so far?


There is a zero percent chance that such a referendum will take place. Our country would be fucked economically, if we ever left the EU and everybody (including the people in charge of the Freedom party) know that. Not only is our industry dependant on selling their goods in Europe we also have loads of farmers who would be fucked without EU subsidies. Add to that that tourism would take a huge hit. There is no way any politician in Austria is stupid enough to really want to leave the EU. They use Brussels as a tool to blame for when things aren't going well and they use it so they can look like they're standing up for the "man on the street", but that's about it. You could argue that most of those points were true in connection with Brexit, but I'd argue that there are people/politicians in Britain who think that the country is big and strong enough to make it on its own based on the past. That won't happen in Austria...

And to make it clear. The People's Party (or ÖVP as it's called in German) is NOT a right wing party. They are a conservative (Christian) party like Merkel's CDU. For this election though they've just adopted a stricter approach towards immigration based on the refugee crisis we have faced in recent years. 2015 roughly 90.000 people applied for asylum in Austria 2016 there were 42.000 asylum seekers. In 2016 Austria was fourth in the overall statistics for asylum seekers in Europe behind Germany (612.415), Italy (85.050) and France (61.830). Germany has 80 million inhabitants, Italy and France have around 60 million each. In Austria we have 8 million inhabitants. So, the numbers don't look good in relation to the population. I don't think we have a massive issue with refugees, but the sheer numbers seem to make a lot of people itchy. I don't agree with them, but in the end it influences their vote. The People's Party tried to take advantage of that and they succeeded.

However, I don't think right wing policy has been the main reason for this shift to the right. We have had some other issues in recent years. We've had the Conservatives and Socialists ruling the country for the last ten years or so. They have spent that time fighting each other and not a lot of things have been done. The country is in need of reforms in areas like education, taxes, pensions or administration. Those two parties were just not able to do anything as it all ended with an ideological battle. People have gotten sick of that. So, Sebastian Kurz took over the Conservatives and he gave them a massive boost. Both by adopting this stricter approach to immigration but also by painting himself as someone who'll change things. He was successful, because he's young and seems to appeal to a lot of people. I can't stand the fucker as I think he's a big phony. He has never had a proper job except working for the party or in politics. He started to study law at university, but never finished. He managed to blag his way into the cabinet at the age of 24 and became foreign minister only a couple of years later. He did very little in my view, but that didn't seem to bother voters. He just managed to reinvigorate a party that was basically half dead by being young and dynamic.

Another reason for this shift to the right is that part of the left just imploded. The Green party had 13 or 14 percent of the votes in the last election. In preparation for this one, they "decided" to get involved in internal fights with their own youth organisation, which was ultimatively thrown out of the party. Then they got into a fight with one of their well known Members of Parliament. He decided to leave the party and run himself with a new one. They made 4.3 something percent apparantly and are not in Parliament, while the Green Party is below 4 percent at the moment and might therefore not be. This might still change when all the votes are counted, but it still has weakened the left massively.

I'm not happy about the outcome of the election, as I feel it's another sign that people seem to care more about appearance than actual policy. They've voted for a guy who is 31, has done nothing in life except in politics and only knows to talk about one thing. He hasn't shown that he's competent in anything, but people didn't seem to care about that. It's also still questionable whether he has changed his party and they really are open for reform. Because in the end they still have their old structure in place and that's what held them back before. Add to that, that loads of people voted for the People's and the Freedom Party hoping that they'll take care of the "guy on the street" when they're both basically there for rich people and businesses. A lot of voters will be very disappointed in a couple of years when they are feeling cuts to the social systems and workers rights...

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #801 on: October 15, 2017, 07:59:27 pm »
Great summary. Thanks Stoa

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #802 on: October 15, 2017, 08:13:35 pm »
Thanks for all that stoa. Puts things in much better less-sensational perspective.
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Offline mbroon

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #803 on: October 16, 2017, 11:50:39 am »

And to make it clear. The People's Party (or ÖVP as it's called in German) is NOT a right wing party. They are a conservative (Christian) party like Merkel's CDU. For this election though they've just adopted a stricter approach towards immigration based on the refugee crisis we have faced in recent years. 2015 roughly 90.000 people applied for asylum in Austria 2016 there were 42.000 asylum seekers. In 2016 Austria was fourth in the overall statistics for asylum seekers in Europe behind Germany (612.415), Italy (85.050) and France (61.830). Germany has 80 million inhabitants, Italy and France have around 60 million each. In Austria we have 8 million inhabitants. So, the numbers don't look good in relation to the population. I don't think we have a massive issue with refugees, but the sheer numbers seem to make a lot of people itchy. I don't agree with them, but in the end it influences their vote. The People's Party tried to take advantage of that and they succeeded. They took advantage by moving to the right with their social policies, already being economically right. I'd certainly call that right wing, although not radical or extreme. Not sure how much it can even be called ÖVP, Kurz has certainly shaped the party in his own populist image. I'm not too well aware of how the ÖVP have been run since 1945, but - correct me if I am wrong - as the CS before 1938 they weren't very moderate. That is the source of my anxiety, their Christian conservative, anti-socialist and anti-semitic background with a willingness to strike deals with the devil.

Another reason for this shift to the right is that part of the left just imploded. The Green party had 13 or 14 percent of the votes in the last election. In preparation for this one, they "decided" to get involved in internal fights with their own youth organisation, which was ultimatively thrown out of the party. Then they got into a fight with one of their well known Members of Parliament. He decided to leave the party and run himself with a new one. They made 4.3 something percent apparantly and are not in Parliament, while the Green Party is below 4 percent at the moment and might therefore not be. This might still change when all the votes are counted, but it still has weakened the left massively. And it seems many would-be Green voters strategically voted SPÖ in response to the rise of FPÖ and ÖVP.

I'm not happy about the outcome of the election, as I feel it's another sign that people seem to care more about appearance than actual policy. Yeah, how about those numbers on ORF: 41% chose ÖVP mainly because of Kurz, 11% mainly based on policy. 40% want a coalition with FPÖ...
Austrians are pretty right wing but I dont think its anything out of the norm. The far right in Europe (not that the likely winner is far right) is hardly a surprise, its roots exist here.

Perhaps not that out of the norm, but in any case cause for concern that a party such as FPÖ - who I heard on Stephansplatz claiming the children of immigrants, Austrian citizens, are leeches on the social system taking what belongs to the "proper" Austrians - have influenced the policies of the other parties so heavily and are set to be part of the government again.

Offline stoa

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #804 on: October 16, 2017, 05:13:06 pm »
They took advantage by moving to the right with their social policies, already being economically right. I'd certainly call that right wing, although not radical or extreme. Not sure how much it can even be called ÖVP, Kurz has certainly shaped the party in his own populist image. I'm not too well aware of how the ÖVP have been run since 1945, but - correct me if I am wrong - as the CS before 1938 they weren't very moderate. That is the source of my anxiety, their Christian conservative, anti-socialist and anti-semitic background with a willingness to strike deals with the devil.

They clearly weren't moderate before 1938 and while those are the roots of the ÖVP the party has changed after the war. They have moved to the middle. Anti-semitism had no place within the party and anti-socialism wasn't part of their ideology either. Of course they have different views and beliefs, but they have been in various coalitions with the socialist party. So much, that they've both become too similar with only some major issues setting them apart (like changing the education system). That's also what helped the FPÖ pick up all those protest votes. People were getting sick of the ÖVP and the SPÖ not getting things done and both of them not really being that different from each other. That gave FPÖ-leaders like Jörg Haider and later HC Strache the possibility to paint themselves as the party of the "little man" despite clearly working for the wealthy neo-liberal crowd.

I would also argue that the way the ÖVP is structured is still a big stumbling block for Kurz. Yes, he is their big hero now and he has had massive influence on the way the party is run. However, for decades various interest-groups called "Bünde" have had the say in the party. The "Wirtschaftsbund" was there for the businesspeople. The "Bauernbund" was there for the farmers. They were calling the shots and I am not sure whether the people in charge of those various wings of the party will just let Kurz do whatever he wants while they're losing power.

I think it is a bad outlook at the moment as we'll almost definitely have a coalition between the People's and the Freedom party, but we will have to see what they can actually do. Let's not forget that back at the beginning of the 2000s we already had that coalition and it imploded pretty quickly. Mainly due to the FPÖ not being able to cope with being part of the government, but also trying to be the opposition. That was of course a result of Jörg Haider not being part of the government, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with making tough decisions and not being able to blame others or promise an easy solution...

Offline mbroon

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #805 on: October 16, 2017, 10:27:24 pm »


Thank you for your informed view. I can mostly go on the perhaps biased opinions of my circle and what I extrapolate from bigger leaps in history. It is an interesting country to attempt to integrate in.


Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #806 on: October 21, 2017, 05:55:35 pm »
The man being dubbed the 'Czech Trump' wins Czech election.

Quote
Czech election: Billionaire Babis wins by large margin

Populist billionaire candidate Andrej Babis and his party have won the Czech Republic's general election.

Mr Babis, 63, is the country's second-richest man and campaigned on an anti-establishment and Eurosceptic platform.

Results from more than 98% of polling stations gave his centrist movement ANO (Yes) almost 30% of the vote - nearly three times its closest rival.

The centre-right Civic Democrats and the far-right SPD came second and third with a little over 10% each.

Turnout was a little over 60%.

Mr Babis is now the main contender to become prime minister after coalition negotiations.

The 63-year-old is estimated to be worth $4bn (£3bn), making him the country's second richest man - but he has also faced numerous scandals including a fraud indictment and accusations he was a communist-era police agent.

It is not yet clear what the composition of the next government will be.

Its current coalition partner, the ruling centre-left Social Democrats (CSSD), saw its share of the vote tumble to become the sixth-largest party.

Far-right and far-left groups made gains, however. With more than 98% of polling stations reporting, the largest parties now include:

    Ano (Yes): 29.8%
    Freedom and Free Democracy party (SPD) : 10.7%
    Civic Democratic party: 11.2%
    The Czech Pirate Party: 10.7%
    Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM): 7.8%
    Social Democrats (CSSD): 7.3%

The BBC's correspondent in Prague, Rob Cameron, said the SPD's strong performance was particularly noteworthy, as the far-right party wants to ban Islam in the Czech Republic.

Liberal, pro-European parties were left massively depleted, he said.

The country's outgoing leader, Social Democrat Bohuslav Sobotka, headed a coalition formed with Mr Babis's party after a 2013 snap election.

But in May, Mr Sobotka submitted his government's resignation because of a disagreement with Andrej Babis, who was serving as finance minister at the time.

He was unhappy about alleged unexplained business dealings involving Mr Babis.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41708844

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #807 on: November 20, 2017, 08:14:19 am »
Could be heading for another election in Germany

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42047532

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #808 on: November 20, 2017, 10:42:05 pm »
Merkel facing a number of problems right now. Talking about going in as a minority government or another election. She seems to prefer the latter but not sure thats what the CDU want.

Interesting to analyse where the sticking points were in their talks and just illustrates that the CDU are a decent bit on the right. Always find it odd the love she gets from leftists/centre leftists.

Offline stoa

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #809 on: November 20, 2017, 11:15:04 pm »


Interesting to analyse where the sticking points were in their talks and just illustrates that the CDU are a decent bit on the right. Always find it odd the love she gets from leftists/centre leftists.

At the end of the day Merkel is a conservative and the CDU is conservative. So, they are clearly right of the middle. The CSU is even more to the right so they will always follow conservative values. Merkel gets some love because during the refugee crisis she showed some basic human decency when almost everybody else was simply acting as if it wasn't their problem and were prepared to close their borders. Credit to Merkel where it's due but she's still the leader of a conservative party.

There probably will be new elections and the outcome will be interesting. The FDP probably think that they'll get an even better result because people might be trying to get them into a coalition with the CDU/CSU.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #810 on: November 21, 2017, 09:27:18 am »
There probably will be new elections and the outcome will be interesting. The FDP probably think that they'll get an even better result because people might be trying to get them into a coalition with the CDU/CSU.

Think the FDP have been really reckless with their behaviour over this and could well up paying a price. If they're not willing to compromise now, why vote for them again. If there is a new election, I hope they lose a significant chunk of their liberal support to the Greens. That said, think there's every chance they will pull back from this and try to find some face-saving compromise to re-enter coalition talks.

Tracking polls have AFD down from 15% to 11% since the talks broke down, and the CDU recovering. This will certainly focus the minds of voters.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #811 on: November 21, 2017, 09:34:09 am »
Would you take a look at the state of the British political media and commentators at the moment?


@afneil
Germany tonight in its biggest political crisis since late 1940s. Bigger even than UK’s current ongoing political crisis.


 :butt :butt :butt

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #812 on: November 21, 2017, 09:38:38 am »
Would you take a look at the state of the British political media and commentators at the moment?


@afneil
Germany tonight in its biggest political crisis since late 1940s. Bigger even than UK’s current ongoing political crisis.


 :butt :butt :butt

One of the reporters said that there hasn't been an instance where such a snap election has led to the biggest party/leader getting more of the votes. The worry is that Merkel was weakened last time and if they go to the polls again, she will be weakened further, which could increase the demands of the coalition partners.

Of course we also have the spectre of the AfD hanging about. I know they are not massive in numbers, but 13% was a healthy amount and people will be shit scared about them gaining more votes.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #813 on: November 21, 2017, 09:40:00 am »
One of the reporters said that there hasn't been an instance where such a snap election has led to the biggest party/leader getting more of the votes. The worry is that Merkel was weakened last time and if they go to the polls again, she will be weakened further, which could increase the demands of the coalition partners.

Of course we also have the spectre of the AfD hanging about. I know they are not massive in numbers, but 13% was a healthy amount and people will be shit scared about them gaining more votes.

@StewartWood
Its biggest crisis. Apart from the overnight construction of the Berlin Wall, terrorist campaigns by the Baader-Meinhof & Red Army Faction, a spy scandal forcing Chancellor Willi Brandt's resignation, & the overnight fall of the Berlin Wall

Offline armchair-fan

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #814 on: November 21, 2017, 09:51:30 am »
Always find it odd the love she gets from leftists/centre leftists.

Agreed.  In fact she seems to get love from all around in the UK.  I guess other nations politicians always seem better than our own as, unless you follow things really closely, you're not subjected to their day to day fuck ups.  From a distance Merkel's main achievement has been longevity, which I guess is an achievement in itself.  In terms of actual things she has done it's harder to see, and she seems to have made several rash, spur of the moment, decisions which have caused the country lots of problems.

BTW - very bizarre they refer to the (now failed) proposed coalition as 'Jamaica' - the first time I saw articles about 'Merkel pins hopes on Jamaica' and such like I was confused.

Offline ChaChaMooMoo

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #815 on: November 21, 2017, 10:05:17 am »
BTW - very bizarre they refer to the (now failed) proposed coalition as 'Jamaica' - the first time I saw articles about 'Merkel pins hopes on Jamaica' and such like I was confused.

CDU is typically represented by black colour.
FDP by blue.
Greens.. well.. is green.

Its a Jamaican flag. And hence the name of the coalition.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #816 on: November 21, 2017, 10:12:03 am »
CDU is typically represented by black colour.
FDP by blue.
Greens.. well.. is green.

Its a Jamaican flag. And hence the name of the coalition.

Except the Jamaican flag has gold and no blue.... and the FDP are yellow (gold).  ;D

Offline ChaChaMooMoo

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #817 on: November 21, 2017, 10:55:28 am »
Except the Jamaican flag has gold and no blue.... and the FDP are yellow (gold).  ;D

Oh wait. I got that wrong. I meant to type yellow.
I feel so stupid.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #818 on: November 21, 2017, 02:29:24 pm »
At the end of the day Merkel is a conservative and the CDU is conservative. So, they are clearly right of the middle. The CSU is even more to the right so they will always follow conservative values. Merkel gets some love because during the refugee crisis she showed some basic human decency when almost everybody else was simply acting as if it wasn't their problem and were prepared to close their borders. Credit to Merkel where it's due but she's still the leader of a conservative party.

There probably will be new elections and the outcome will be interesting. The FDP probably think that they'll get an even better result because people might be trying to get them into a coalition with the CDU/CSU.

It was very generous and she deserves amazing credit and she has more than received it. But like Macron, Merkel was being established as some sort of guiding light for everyone and we have to look to them two (as well as Trudeau and Obama previously) for leadership in all elements of politics, when in fact there are very few things people here would agree with if they were our PM.

Its almost as if being liberal (and there are questions about how liberal someone like Merkel actually is) is the most important thing.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #819 on: December 16, 2017, 03:00:27 pm »
Far right return to power in Austria.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42374693

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #820 on: January 21, 2018, 10:51:25 pm »

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #821 on: January 24, 2018, 04:46:18 pm »
German far-right AfD politician converts to Islam

Quote
A member of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, known for its anti-Muslim rhetoric, has surprised observers by converting to Islam.

Arthur Wagner sat on the party's executive committee in the state of Brandenburg but recently stepped down for reasons he says are unrelated.

The 48-year-old, who is still a member of the party, told one newspaper that it was a "private matter".

Quote
Mr Wagner, who is of Russian origin, previously belonged to German chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party.

However in a video published in 2017, he is shown saying that although he had once been an admirer of Mrs Merkel, her decision to open the door to hundreds of thousands of migrants during the 2015-16 crisis had proved he was "totally wrong".

He claimed Germany had "mutated into another country" as a result.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42804202

Offline GreatEx

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #822 on: January 25, 2018, 05:20:38 am »
Nice to see the Russians are trolling the far-right for a change!

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #823 on: January 26, 2018, 10:18:40 am »
Important election for the Czech presidency this weekend.

A pro-Russian, anti-immigration, populist incumbent >:( against a liberal internationalist scientist challenger :D

https://www.politico.eu/article/milos-zeman-jiri-drahos-czech-election-prague-turn-for-populist-vs-liberal-showdown/?utm_content=buffer79c65&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Polls indicate it's going to be very close....

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #824 on: January 27, 2018, 02:19:55 am »
And the 2 comments posted so far indicate the kind of people who support each candidate:

Quote

Milos Zeman is a Terrorist

Milos Zeman is a snake. He purposefully lies to the Czech population about imaginary quotas of immigrants, imaginary threats, and generally he’s one of Europe’s biggest racists.

(For the record, the Czech Republic has only accepted 12 migrants under the EU quota. Yes, 12.)

Zeman is much like Donald Trump in the sense that he’s corrupt, racist and a great big, fat liar. I hope the Czechs see through this disgusting individual and vote a calm, calculated and intelligent candidate like Jiri Drahos.

Posted on 1/26/18 | 1:52 PM CET
Jiří Drahoš is a leftard

Jiri Drahos is a snake. He purposefully lies to the Czech population about very real quotas of mustards and musterrorists that germans and eurosoros a$$ kissers want to impose on Czechia, very real threats from EUSSR, and generally he’s one of Europe’s biggest rotten, corrupted lefturds.

(For the record, the Czech Republic has only accepted 12 migrants under the EU quota. Yes, 12. – thanks to Czech true patriots, Zeman amongst. For the record: 12 too many).

Zeman is much like Donald Trump in the sense that he’s patriotic, Christian and a true patriot. I hope the Czechs see through this admirable individual, Milos Zeman, and vote down a quiet, calculated and sneaky lefturdoros candidate like Jiri Drahos.

Posted on 1/26/18 | 5:53 PM CET

I'm not overly-optimistic about the outcome despite promising poll results, probably because my experiences in Eastern Europe have demonstrated that openly-racist attitudes are still very common there (no surprise that the article says 75% of Czechs want a complete ban Muslim immigration). Xenophobia tends to be a powerful weapon on election day. With Poland and Hungary already in the clutches of the far-right, it would be great if the Czech Republic became a bulwark against pro-Russian / anti-immigration forces, but I dare not hope.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #825 on: January 27, 2018, 03:33:01 pm »
Ugh, Zeman wins.

Find it bizarre how people in central/eastern Europe can continue to vote for pro-Russian candidates like him. How quickly people forget history.....

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #826 on: January 27, 2018, 04:00:14 pm »
Love a right winger out there dont they. Not to mention them being in power practically in Austria as well.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #827 on: January 27, 2018, 06:20:41 pm »
Ugh, Zeman wins.

Find it bizarre how people in central/eastern Europe can continue to vote for pro-Russian candidates like him. How quickly people forget history.....

The turn to the right in several former Eastern Bloc countries such as Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland is disconcerting.  The Globe and Mail had an excellent lengthy piece on the Poland situation last week. In the Polish example, it is interesting to note that the hardened attitudes towards minorities and migrants are increasingly from  younger people, who never grew up (or weren't even born) during the Communist era.  The main themes in the article seem to suggest the following:

- A sense of the ordinary person not reaping the economic benefits of being in the EU, yet still retaining a desire to remain in the EU
- Two million Poles leaving to find work in the EU; many of whom have returned due to the growing Polish economy, but  may have come back with a poor opinion of other EU countries (UK, France, Germany), particularly in their stance towards minorities and migrants
- While Poland hasn't actually taken in many migrants, there has been an influx of Ukrainian immigrants in recent years as a result of an economic slump and conflict in eastern Ukraine

I think it's also important to note that while the likes of Hungary and Poland were quite ethnically diverse during the 19th century, they've become quite ethnically homogeneous since the end of the Second World War. In 2011, 97.7% of Poland's population was ethnically Polish. In 1921, it was 68.9%

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #828 on: January 28, 2018, 04:36:31 pm »
The turn to the right in several former Eastern Bloc countries such as Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland is disconcerting.  The Globe and Mail had an excellent lengthy piece on the Poland situation last week. In the Polish example, it is interesting to note that the hardened attitudes towards minorities and migrants are increasingly from  younger people, who never grew up (or weren't even born) during the Communist era.  The main themes in the article seem to suggest the following:

- A sense of the ordinary person not reaping the economic benefits of being in the EU, yet still retaining a desire to remain in the EU
- Two million Poles leaving to find work in the EU; many of whom have returned due to the growing Polish economy, but  may have come back with a poor opinion of other EU countries (UK, France, Germany), particularly in their stance towards minorities and migrants
- While Poland hasn't actually taken in many migrants, there has been an influx of Ukrainian immigrants in recent years as a result of an economic slump and conflict in eastern Ukraine

I think it's also important to note that while the likes of Hungary and Poland were quite ethnically diverse during the 19th century, they've become quite ethnically homogeneous since the end of the Second World War. In 2011, 97.7% of Poland's population was ethnically Polish. In 1921, it was 68.9%


Interesting. And worrying.

Saw on Twitter too that as of yesterday the Berlin wall has been down as long as it was up.  :o Which doesn't make me feel old at all.....


The Czech results showed a huge majority for the defeated candidate in Prague and amongst Czechs living abroad though. Which may suggest that there's also a Brexit/Trump type effect here, with divisions between the young, educated, outward-looking and older, less educated nostalgists.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #829 on: January 28, 2018, 07:11:15 pm »
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of voter demographics in the Czech elections. Those who are 50+ now would have been at least in their early twenties in 1989. They would have heard plenty about the Prague Spring, but may have not been born during the Soviet invasion. They would have seen their country come away from the Soviet yoke and then watched it peacefully split in two. Interestingly, the Czech Republic has the lowest rate of unemployment in the EU, so it can't be some sepia tinted nostalgia about an era of full employment. The Czech Republic also has the second lowest poverty levels out of any OECD country other than Denmark.

I've read a few things that suggest the Czech swing to the right is in response to notions of nepotism, disatisfaction with 'elites' and a lack of reforms. All issues of which have been injected with poisonous strands of divisive, racially tinged rhetoric from populist candidates

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #830 on: February 7, 2018, 10:00:47 pm »
Looks like the SPD and CDU have reached a coalition agreement with SPD holding the purse strings

Quote
Angela Merkel has exposed herself to criticism from her own party after she took a crucial step towards ending a four-month period of political uncertainty by reaching a coalition agreement at the cost of giving the centre-left Social Democrats a greater role in government.

Following a marathon of all-night dealmaking sessions and several missed deadlines, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union on Wednesday agreed on the terms of a fresh deal with the SPD, whose supporters will now get a final say on the agreement through a membership vote.

But the prize of a renewed “grand coalition” is likely to come at the cost of ceding key ministries to her junior coalition partner.

The SPD leader, Martin Schulz, can be optimistic about rallying support for a new term in government after securing three influential trophy ministries. The draft coalition deal foresees the centre-left party filling the finance, foreign and labour ministries, as well as the roles for family, justice and the environment.

Schulz, who had ruled out playing a role in a Merkel government in the immediate aftermath of last year’s elections, is reportedly planning to hand his party leadership to the former labour minister Andrea Nahles and take charge of the foreign ministry himself.

The SPD mayor of Hamburg, Olaf Scholz, seen as a pragmatic centrist from the party’s liberal wing, is set to succeed the powerful Wolfgang Schäuble in the finance ministry, a key role for the future direction of the eurozone.

The draft coalition agreement hints at a departure from Schäuble’s hawkish focus on balanced budgets, promising a “solidaristic sharing of responsibilities” and a preparedness to increase German contributions to the EU budget.
More here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/07/germany-coalition-deal-cdu-spd-angela-merkel-martin-schulz

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #831 on: February 7, 2018, 10:42:47 pm »
Looks like the SPD and CDU have reached a coalition agreement with SPD holding the purse strings


Is this a good thing? It makes the AfD the main opposition and the SPD got damaged by their last relationship with the CDU?

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #832 on: February 10, 2018, 04:29:59 pm »
The "Spanish Macron" surging in the polls....

https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21736537-would-be-macron-makes-ground-spains-centrist-ciudadanos-are-march


By contrast, Ciudadanos looks young and energetic. Mr Rivera is 38, a fast-talking lawyer who already has a dozen years’ experience in politics. His party was formed by disillusioned Catalan Socialists who disliked temporising with nationalists. Last year Mr Rivera repositioned it as a centrist, progressive liberal party. “We have to move away from the old left-right axis,” he says, echoing Mr Macron. “The big battle of the 21st century is between liberalism and the open society, and populism-nationalism and the closed society.” Ciudadanos is keen on fighting monopolies and on vigorous Scandinavian-style labour reforms to help the unemployed retrain and find jobs. It wants to shake up the political and electoral systems, and education, to tackle Spain’s still-high rate of school dropouts. It is fiercely pro-European. But Mr Rivera says his party is part of a “worldwide movement”. As well as Mr Macron, he cites Italy’s Matteo Renzi, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Liberal parties in Benelux countries and Scandinavia as soulmates.


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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #833 on: February 13, 2018, 02:32:46 pm »
Is this a good thing? It makes the AfD the main opposition and the SPD got damaged by their last relationship with the CDU?

The Economist's Jeremy Cliffe has an excellent in-depth piece on this
www.economist.com/blogs/kaffeeklatsch/2018/02/end-berparteilichkeit

He refers to Merkel's approach as the "Merkel Method"

Quote
At the heart of this method is strategic inoffensiveness. Mrs Merkel has succeeded by offering her opponents little to criticise: few overarching visions, even less ideology, a ponderously non-committal rhetorical style and an “überparteilich” (above-party) reluctance to be drawn into partisan debate or conflict. Her decision-making style is to leave options open until the last possible moment, then choose one and present it as alternative-less (her refugee gambit was a classic of the genre).

[...]

The result is a leadership that has sanded the edges off German public life and smoothed over its divisions. It is a style against which the country’s politics is in now open revolt.

The rise of the AfD is one example. Though fuelled by the refugee crisis, the party’s success both predates it (entering a state parliament for the first time in 2014, for example) and outlived its peak in Germany (the AfD’s poll numbers have remained stable and even grown as immigration has dropped off headlines and down lists of voter priorities). At root the party is a protest against a right-of-centre politics that looks too indistinct and uncontested. It is the old right of Helmut Kohl’s CDU in exile, joined in an often awkward marriage of convenience with genuine extremists concentrated in the former east. The AfD’s leaders know this, which is why they rail against the doctrine of no alternatives and use provocation above all other techniques. They have succeeded by playing the dissenting force in a staid and under-differentiated political system.

Of course, the SPD is also to blame. As the rival “people’s party” to the CDU/CSU its job is to be the alternative that so many voters miss in mainstream German politics. Yet its woes are also products of the Merkel method. For all that anti-grand coalition campaigners complain about the party’s submission, its problem is more the opposite: Mrs Merkel has embraced the SPD’s politics almost to the point of smothering it to death. Her last government's big policies mostly began life on the pages of the party’s manifesto, like the minimum wage, a lower pensions age for certain workers and quotas for women on boards. That the newly negotiated coalition deal is, according to a computer analysis reported in today’s German press, 70% ascribable to the SPD manifesto and only 30% to the CDU/CSU one is not just a favour from Mrs Merkel to her prospective partners but also a reflection of that deeper truth: too little divides the parties. Hence Mr Schulz’s desperate resolution not to serve in the new cabinet and the lines inserted by the SPD into the coalition deal committing the parties to more open disagreements, a two-year progress review and thrice-yearly chancellor’s questions in the Bundestag.


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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #834 on: February 13, 2018, 02:40:03 pm »
Italian elections up next on March 4th. The 5 Star Movement (shit boy band style name) looks like it will be the biggest party with the most seats but not enough to get in charge.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #835 on: February 13, 2018, 09:01:38 pm »
Italian elections up next on March 4th. The 5 Star Movement (shit boy band style name) looks like it will be the biggest party with the most seats but not enough to get in charge.

Italian politics is such a mess. Would love Renzi to get back in of course, but both left and right are so tainted with corruption. And then the ridiculous 5 star movement will cause essentially a 3 way tie, leading inevitably to some unstable and unsatisfying coalition.

Am in Italy at the moment and have had more than one frustrating conversation about politics with people here. I've been trying to advocate for Emma Bonino's Piu Europa / +E party, with limited success  ;D

Having said, there is so much about this country that is just so wonderful and sublime, you can forgive them a dysfunctional political scene.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #836 on: February 13, 2018, 11:29:42 pm »
Italian politics is such a mess. Would love Renzi to get back in of course, but both left and right are so tainted with corruption. And then the ridiculous 5 star movement will cause essentially a 3 way tie, leading inevitably to some unstable and unsatisfying coalition.

Am in Italy at the moment and have had more than one frustrating conversation about politics with people here. I've been trying to advocate for Emma Bonino's Piu Europa / +E party, with limited success  ;D

Having said, there is so much about this country that is just so wonderful and sublime, you can forgive them a dysfunctional political scene.

Renzi was a bit of an idiot for tieing his future so much with the referendum.

Unfortunately its another big election where immigration is again the hot topic.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #837 on: February 13, 2018, 11:45:04 pm »
Italy is heading to the right sadly enough but if you’ve been there recently you’ll see why. Current government have been a disaster.
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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #838 on: February 15, 2018, 11:27:02 am »

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