A Logical Outlook for this Summers Transfer Window
Note: This isn't meant to be a "who should we buy" post, but rather mainly a look at the bigger picture look at what calibre player the club should be aiming for to fit into Klopp's system.
Likely Sales (values from transfermarkt which usually under-estimates):
- Bogdan: £0.85m
- Moreno: £8.5m
- Sturridge: £18.7m
- Randall: £0.5m
Total: £28.5m
Loanees likely to be sold:
- Sakho: £8.5m (LFC reportedly want £20m)
- Wisdom: £1.7m
- Markovic: £8.5m
Total: £18.7m (or factoring in £20m for Sakho = £30.2m)
Expiring Contract
- Lucas: would leave on a free
Other loanees (likely to be loaned again)
Loan: Ward, Fulton, Kent, Flanagan, Allan, Awoniyi, Chirivella, Brannagan, Dunn
2017/18 Projected Squad
The moves above would leave the squad for 2017/18 like this (with the minimum expected places for likely incoming signings in bold):
Karius
Mignolet
Clyne Matip CB LB
Trent Lovren Klavan Milner
Gomez
Henderson
Lucas/DM*
Stewart
Lallana CM
Wijnaldum Can
Grujic Ejaria
Mané Coutinho
RW Woodburn
Wilson Ojo
Firmino
Origi
Ings
Transfers In
Last summer Klopp signed Karius (£4.7m), Matip (free), Wijnaldum (£25m), Mané (£30m) - all of whom went into the first XI. Klavan (£5m) and Manninger (free) were signed for depth.
That suggests that Klopp will continue to sign players primarily for his first XI rather than for depth, and judging by the squad needs I think it's entirely realistic to expect the following:
- LB: First XI LB
- CB: First XI CB to partner Matip
- *DM: If Lucas leaves, get a new DM to compete with Henderson/Can
- AM: A first XI calibre and versatile midfielder who shares Lallana's dynamism
- RW/LW: A first XI calibre winger who can compete with Coutinho and Mané for starts.
The forward positions are still a little bit light, given that the change is basically Sturridge>new RW.
That said, replacing Sturridge with a less injury prone player is already an addition, particularly as ST>RW addresses the balance issue; and Woodburn, Wilson, Ojo, Kent, and Origi will all be a year older, not to mention that Ings will be back from injury (big question marks about him though).
Nonetheless, it wouldn't surprise me to see another striker brought in as well.
Potential Budget
As outlined above (based on transfermarkt valuations), likely incoming from sales of Bogdan, Randall, Moreno, Sturridge; plus Sakho, Wisdom, Markovic = £47.2m (£58.7 if £20m for Sakho is received).
Again, that figure is based on transfermarkt valuations which are usually very conservative.
Considering that the club were negative spenders last summer (-£14.5m) and didn't spend anything in January, the noise coming from Paul Joyce that this summer could feature a big expenditure would make sense as the money is certainly there, particularly when you factor in potential CL money.
Effectively, if the player sales listed above do materialize at about the total valuations of ~£47m, the club could effectively buy two £25m players before even pushing the boat out with any additional money.
As for total outlay, a net spend of around £100m seems more than reasonable for a club with ambitions in the CL that has also essentially saved up last summers transfer budget too. Below is the net spend last year (from skysports) for reference:
Summer 2016 net spend:
Man City: £169m
Man Utd: £141m
Chelsea: £98m
Arsenal: £82m
Spurs: £30m
Liverpool: negative £15m
If Liverpool and FSG want to compete at the top then it's time to push the boat out and start matching the ambition of the other top clubs, particularly at a time when Arsenal and United are going through tricky times.
With a big budget available, but realistically only 5-6 positions to fill that means focusing on quality rather than quantity.
Potential Signings
Looking at the potential sales which could bring in over £50m, that means that the club could spend £25m on someone like Brandt and £25m on a CM, leaving whatever the rest of the budget is to solve the CB, LB, and DM positions.
Needless to say, there really shouldn't be any reason why the club can't offer top money for the very top targets, like Van Dijk, James Rodriguez, Brandt, etc (just to name some examples).
Something along the lines of this, which is an expenditure of £155m, which minus the incoming ~£50m is a net spend of £105m:
£40m - Van Dijk (CB)
£25m - Brandt (LW) - a genuine option to compete with Coutinho at LW
£50m - Rodriguez (CM/RW) - someone who can play alongside (or instead of) Lallana, or also rotate with Mané
£20m - LB
£20M - DM - bought only if Lucas leaves, and to compete with Henderson/Can
Summary
That's all well and good, but there still remains one big question that needs to be asked:
Despite having money available, can Liverpool actually attract the top tier of talents?
You'd certainly hope so given that the club:
- is looking likely to be back in the Champions League,
- is in financially good health,
- has a proven manager like Klopp in charge, and
- has a great record against top PL sides this season (i.e. going undefeated against Top 10 sides) which is strongly suggestive that the team is capable of challenging in Europe too, which will surely be attractive to any incoming targets.
Now that might be an optimistic view, but just take a moment to imagine Klopp fielding a lineup like this...
Starting XI: Mignolet; Clyne, Matip, Van Dijk, New LB; Henderson, Lallana, Rodriguez; Mané, Coutinho, Firmino
Bench: Karius, Lovren, Milner, Can, Wijnaldum, Brandt, Origi
In reserve: Klavan, Gomez, Trent, Grujic, Lucas/New DM, Stewart, Wilson, Woodburn, Ejaria, Ojo, Ings
All-in-all, plenty to be excited about, as it seems as if the club is finally in a position to spend money, and the squad is likewise in a healthy state to have genuine star quality added to it rather than big overhauls.
It has the potential to be a big summer for the club, and one in which there will be no excuses for FSG for not landing top players to meet the ambition of the fans and Klopp himself.