Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[PaulF]

Id assume the germans would be anxious about losing is as an export market and might be keen to appease us, but then would they be better off by simply not having us as competitors for their sales across europe?  Does us being out of the eu,leave nissan et al at a disadvantage to the german auto giants?

[Nobby Reserve]

Kate Hoey excelling in the arsewit stakes with her latest tweet:

No-one wants a hard border so why does @campaignforleo imply it is British Government’s responsibility. @DavidDavisMP won’t be putting up barriers at border so will the Irish Government? Taoiseach should tell @EU_Commission to stop playing games and begin serious talks

[classycarra]

Kate Hoey excelling in the arsewit stakes with her latest tweet:

Fancy playing games with something so important, eh!

[oldfordie]

Kate Hoey excelling in the arsewit stakes with her latest tweet:

It's going to be interesting to hear the responses. am sure they will make her look a right idiot.
One of biggest problems we all know we will have is all the customs checks at our borders. we've made no attempt to prepare for this so I was wondering if the Tories had some sort of master plan like throwing open the doors and just allowing all trucks coming from the EU to enter without any checks.
That may still be possible if we set up some sort of online declaration of goods system but one thing I came across was any WTO cant discriminate from and another WTO country. it's very complicated and I don't know if it's possible.
So NI+the republic would be trading under WTO and shes suggesting the republic should just throw open the borders, I wonder if this would mean under WTO rules the Republic would have to throw open the doors to all WTO countries.

[Red-Soldier]

Kate Hoey excelling in the arsewit stakes with her latest tweet:

So are you happy with the waay everything is panning out???

[redbyrdz]

Id assume the germans would be anxious about losing is as an export market and might be keen to appease us, but then would they be better off by simply not having us as competitors for their sales across europe?  Does us being out of the eu,leave nissan et al at a disadvantage to the german auto giants?

They'd prefer a stronger EU with the UK in it.


But anyway, the interesting part was that the foreign media seem interested in reporting on possible solutions to some of the practical Brexit problems, something that the UK media do not. Over here its all about 'getting a good deal', whatever that means. And 'someone will sort it'.

[hide5seek]

And that is why you don't look to rock stars for political guidance.

Comes across as if he's playing both sides as well. Sort of I'm on the remain side but we have to leave. A political coward as well as a gobby know all shyte.

[BarryCrocker]

Comes across as if he's playing both sides as well. Sort of I'm on the remain side but we have to leave. A political coward as well as a gobby know all shyte.

Technically speaking Australia is the oldest continent.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Comes across as if he's playing both sides as well. Sort of I'm on the remain side but we have to leave. A political coward as well as a gobby know all shyte.

I'm sure he probably has a fair few Brexiteer lads as fans that he doesn't want to alienate. He's got his eye on the market share.

[hide5seek]

I'm sure he probably has a fair few Brexiteer lads as fans that he doesn't want to alienate. He's got his eye on the market share.

Yep, more than likely. 

[killer-heels]

I listened to an interview with Armando Ianucci and he too was saying similar to Gallagher. Not that what Ianucci says is always right, but the idea of voting for remain and being strong remainers whilst wanting this referendum result be implemented is quite prevalent. Wouldnt call it political cowardice.

[BoRed]

I listened to an interview with Armando Ianucci and he too was saying similar to Gallagher. Not that what Ianucci says is always right, but the idea of voting for remain and being strong remainers whilst wanting this referendum result be implemented is quite prevalent. Wouldnt call it political cowardice.

I would sooner call it political ignorance than cowardice. I understand all the arguments about the "will of the people" and "democracy", but if we can consult "the people" twice in two years on who should be in government, then why not consult them twice on a single issue such as EU membership. People being allowed to change their minds is a very important property of the concept of democracy they supposedly swear by, otherwise we might as well have one "final" general election and "stick with" whoever we elected forever.

[Alan_X]

Id assume the germans would be anxious about losing is as an export market and might be keen to appease us, but then would they be better off by simply not having us as competitors for their sales across europe?  Does us being out of the eu,leave nissan et al at a disadvantage to the german auto giants?

They won’t be losing us as an export market. People want to buy BMWs, VWs and Mercedes. The German model is making technically advanced, high quality products that aren’t just sold on price. Thatcher destroyed our manufacturing base as part of her social engineering project.

Just walking past a row of parked cars: VW, Mercedes, Renault, Volvo, Transit, Jeep, Honda...

It’s like a junkie insisting his dealer ‘needs me more than I need him’.

I forgot Audi...

[filopastry]

They won’t be losing us as an export market. People want to buy BMWs, VWs and Mercedes. The German model is making technically advanced, high quality products that aren’t just sold on price. Thatcher destroyed our manufacturing base as part of her social engineering project.

Just walking past a row of parked cars: VW, Mercedes, Renault, Volvo, Transit, Jeep, Honda...

It’s like a junkie insisting his dealer ‘needs me more than I need him’.

I forgot Audi...

Yep, people will still buy although maybe in slightly lower numbers, they'll just have to pay more for them.

I'll still be buying Miele vacuum cleaners rather than the unreliable shite Dyson turns out as well

[So… Howard Philips]

Yep, people will still buy although maybe in slightly lower numbers, they'll just have to pay more for them.

I'll still be buying Miele vacuum cleaners rather than the unreliable shite Dyson turns out as well

And I bet the Dyson wasn't made in the UK either.

[filopastry]

And I bet the Dyson wasn't made in the UK either.

I think he outsourced all production to the Far East a while ago, could be wrong though

[Red Raw]

And I bet the Dyson wasn't made in the UK either.

Without wanting to turn this into a vacuum cleaner thread there really is only one winner here, a real model of UK excellence in engineering and manufacturing:


When working as a builder in peoples homes I used almost every major brand of cleaner (we always cleaned up after ourselves).  We were always pleased to see a Henry in the cupboard under the stairs because we knew that the clean up at the end of the day would be easier and quicker - the Dysons were all complete crap by comparison.

Henrys are also manufactured from scratch (not just bolted together) in Chard in Somerset.  I found this archived article from the BBC about Numatic.  Its interesting that they brought the design and manufacturing into the UK to reduce the turnaround time for the bespoke stuff they also do.  It is an interesting read:

Made in Chard: The Somerset factory keeping it local
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/daveharvey/2011/03/made_in_chard_the_somerset_fac.html

[Party Phil]

I would sooner call it political ignorance than cowardice. I understand all the arguments about the "will of the people" and "democracy", but if we can consult "the people" twice in two years on who should be in government, then why not consult them twice on a single issue such as EU membership. People being allowed to change their minds is a very important property of the concept of democracy they supposedly swear by, otherwise we might as well have one "final" general election and "stick with" whoever we elected forever.

You can't jump in and out of the EU every few years though. That's why it should never have been left to the public to decide, we supposedly elect competent MPs to represent our interests and make informed, responsible decisions over such once in a lifetime choices.

[Alan_X]

And I bet the Dyson wasn't made in the UK either.

Dyson is an arsehole.

[So… Howard Philips]

Dyson is an arsehole.

But he is posh and a knight, so the darling of the Brexit classes.

But still an arsehole in any right thinking person's mind.

[24/7]

I'd love to meet him and return my vacuum cleaner somewhere suitable.....

[reniformis]

Id assume the germans would be anxious about losing is as an export market and might be keen to appease us, but then would they be better off by simply not having us as competitors for their sales across europe?  Does us being out of the eu,leave nissan et al at a disadvantage to the german auto giants?

Don't forget though that the likes of Vauxhall, Mini, Bentley are German-owned so it's still a problem for them. As far as UK v EU markets go, it depends on the brand and their level of presence in the UK. For the mass manufacturers the UK market is about 20% of the EU as is. Vauxhall/Opel has 10% of its production in the UK, for Nissan it's over 50% so obviously they're more exposed to risk. In an 'ideal' post-brexit world, the car companies would produce 20% of their cars in the UK for the domestic market only to eliminate tariffs. That would mean 100% more jobs on Merseyside for Vauxhall and 50% less for the mackem Nissan pricks (which would be some kind of poetic justice). However, producing multiple models on the same line is difficult and inefficient and that's without considering supply chain issues with component tariffs, customs delays and the costs of stockpiling parts.

The whole industry is paralysed by uncertainty, they simply don't have the information on which to base any decisions. The likes of Vauxhall and Nissan are waiting to see what the UK gov do. The likes of Ford and VW are waiting to see what the likes of Vauxhall and Nissan do, because if UK production becomes a competitive advantage in 20% of their market then it's now them that have a problem. It's a fucking mess and the longer the Tories piss about in dreamland, the more likely the car companies will panic and pull out simply to be sure of the ground beneath their wheels.

[killer-heels]

They won’t be losing us as an export market. People want to buy BMWs, VWs and Mercedes. The German model is making technically advanced, high quality products that aren’t just sold on price. Thatcher destroyed our manufacturing base as part of her social engineering project.

Just walking past a row of parked cars: VW, Mercedes, Renault, Volvo, Transit, Jeep, Honda...

It’s like a junkie insisting his dealer ‘needs me more than I need him’.

I forgot Audi...

They will take a bit of a hit. Even in luxury areas, tarrifs and price rises affect sales and competitiveness.

Not enough though that a country like Germany will and should sacrifice the political greater good just to appease that industry. In Germany the consensus is that the motor manufacturers desperately want tarrif free access, but Merkel has put them in their place, read them the riot act and they have had to accept that.

[CrasherKid79]

So as a Brexit voter ... they seam to be a minority when you ask .... nobody wants to admit it?

Brexit was not Teresa May faffing and grovelling for us out.

[reniformis]

Dyson is an arsehole.

Indeed. He justified pulling production out of the UK by claiming that not joining the Euro was economic suicide. He moved it to Malaysia, famously part of the Eurozone.

[Alan_X]

They will take a bit of a hit. Even in luxury areas, tarrifs and price rises affect sales and competitiveness.

Not enough though that a country like Germany will and should sacrifice the political greater good just to appease that industry. In Germany the consensus is that the motor manufacturers desperately want tarrif free access, but Merkel has put them in their place, read them the riot act and they have had to accept that.

I'd agree with that.

[reniformis]

So as a Brexit voter ... they seam to be a minority when you ask .... nobody wants to admit it?

Brexit was not Teresa May faffing and grovelling for us out.

But brexit was never going to be easy or pleasant. I'm sure there's remainers who think brexit is a noble idea but simply not worth the hassle for the limited rewards. Like deciding to grow your own fruit and veg in the back garden v the ASDA before factoring in that all your seed, compost and tools would cost an extra 10% before you'd even started. But that's project fear innit?

[oldfordie]

They will take a bit of a hit. Even in luxury areas, tarrifs and price rises affect sales and competitiveness.

Not enough though that a country like Germany will and should sacrifice the political greater good just to appease that industry. In Germany the consensus is that the motor manufacturers desperately want tarrif free access, but Merkel has put them in their place, read them the riot act and they have had to accept that.

Tariffs are important but IMO there not the most important issue when it comes to producing cars in the UK.
If we fail to get a good deal that gives us frictionless borders then the car manufactureres are going to have to spend a fortune to over come the problem. build massive warehouse and stockpile 3 or 4 days worth of  parts, thousands of different parts all stockpiled will be extremly expensive. employ a lot more men to drive stacker trucks to feed the lines. maybe build more satellite companies to produce more parts in the UK rather than import from the EU. why are the parts imported now if this was a cheaper option..
German cars may well get taxed 10%, UK produced car prices may rise a lot more than 10%.

[ShakaHislop]

I listened to an interview with Armando Ianucci and he too was saying similar to Gallagher. Not that what Ianucci says is always right, but the idea of voting for remain and being strong remainers whilst wanting this referendum result be implemented is quite prevalent. Wouldnt call it political cowardice.

I absolutely would. It's Remainers finding excuses not to fight for what they believe in.

Wanting to prevent Brexit from happening is little different from what the Labour Party are doing at the moment, yet no-one is calling Labour undemocratic for trying to topple the government.

[reniformis]

Tariffs are important but IMO there not the most important issue when it comes to producing cars in the UK.
If we fail to get a good deal that gives us frictionless borders then the car manufactureres are going to have to spend a fortune to over come the problem. build massive warehouse and stockpile 3 or 4 days worth of  parts, thousands of different parts all stockpiled will be extremly expensive. employ a lot more men to drive stacker trucks to feed the lines. maybe build more satellite companies to produce more parts in the UK rather than import from the EU. why are the parts imported now if this was a cheaper option..
German cars may well get taxed 10%, UK produced car prices may rise a lot more than 10%.

The thing is that the European car industry (certainly in the UK ) will change massively after Brexit. This isn't a 1% hit, it's 10% at least. Imagine having a 10% pay cut. Unless you're megaprofit (and the car industry isn't) then you have to restructure. The car industry already has massive collaboration between different corporations, mine (Vauxhall/Opel/Peugeot/Citroen/Renault) is just one. Maybe under different non-EU regulations, we'll see different standard cars in the UK vs the EU and all manufacturers will share the cost by sharing the same UK supply chains. Depending on where we end up, it may be that making local cars for local people (I see all Brexiteers as Edward and Tubbs) works. I'm clutching at straws, I know that. It'll end up like the 70's and 80's again where it's cheaper to go over to Europe, have a 2 week holiday and buy a car while you're there and come back with a profit to the cries of 'rip-off Britain' again. Great days.

[oldfordie]

I absolutely would. It's Remainers finding excuses not to fight for what they believe in.

Wanting to prevent Brexit from happening is little different from what the Labour Party are doing at the moment, yet no-one is calling Labour undemocratic for trying to topple the government.

If Corbyn had made a speech like this months ago he would have been hailed a hero, probably would have won the GE as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtQ-js-f-Hk

[stara]

Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee Oral evidence:  Leaving the EU: implications for the automotive industry:
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committee/leaving-the-eu-implications-for-the-automotive-industry/oral/73855.pdf

Patrick] Keating (Government Affairs Manager, Honda Motor Europe): From what we are picking up from the Commission, there is a real risk that, as the UK leaves the single market, the type approvals issued by the VCA, the UK Vehicle Certification Agency,will either no longer hold validity or not be able to be extended. 

Mike Hawes (chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders ): If it got to the situation where the UK VCA certification was no longer valid, you would have to seek an alternative approval. There are two implications for that. You are not allowed to hold simultaneous approvals from two authorities.  Effectively, you would have to stop production while you applied for your new certification and then start production again.

Aka post-Brexit, UK made cars will no longer be cleared for sale in EU Member States, until such time as the cars can be submitted to an EU Member State approval authority, and gain new certification. A production halt would be major issue, imo. Notice, Keating says "UK leaves the single market". He does not say soft, hard, good or bad. It is just one of those fun facts of leaving single market.

[classycarra]

I absolutely would. It's Remainers finding excuses not to fight for what they believe in.

Noel's so spineless he didn't even vote, so I wouldn't call him a remainer.

[oldfordie]

The thing is that the European car industry (certainly in the UK ) will change massively after Brexit. This isn't a 1% hit, it's 10% at least. Imagine having a 10% pay cut. Unless you're megaprofit (and the car industry isn't) then you have to restructure. The car industry already has massive collaboration between different corporations, mine (Vauxhall/Opel/Peugeot/Citroen/Renault) is just one. Maybe under different non-EU regulations, we'll see different standard cars in the UK vs the EU and all manufacturers will share the cost by sharing the same UK supply chains. Depending on where we end up, it may be that making local cars for local people (I see all Brexiteers as Edward and Tubbs) works. I'm clutching at straws, I know that. It'll end up like the 70's and 80's again where it's cheaper to go over to Europe, have a 2 week holiday and buy a car while you're there and come back with a profit to the cries of 'rip-off Britain' again. Great days.

I only remember Just in Time breaking down twice in my years in a car plant. both due to extreme weather conditions. absolute chaos. ground to a halt in no time, Company got so desperate they were flying engines in to drip feed the lines. people may wonder why dont they just get supplies locally as you know it doesn't work that way, the company may have a engine plant or whatever and it mass produces for other plants abroad. so even though this is classed as a EU import it still comes from inside the company.
As you say there will have to be some massive reorganization to over come problems otherwise costs will soar.

[killer-heels]

Allistair Campbell and Gisela Stuart have just been locking horns on Brexit. Stuart is absolutely delusional and there is no way I can accept a world where she is proven right. This country will get its comeuppance in a few years and knob heads like her need to be paraded in the stocks as we get to throw tomatoes at her.

[oldfordie]

Allistair Campbell and Gisela Stuart have just been locking horns on Brexit. Stuart is absolutely delusional and there is no way I can accept a world where she is proven right. This country will get its comeuppance in a few years and knob heads like her need to be paraded in the stocks as we get to throw tomatoes at her.

It was all the EUs fault.
The arrogance of some of the leave campaigners is mind boggling.
We are leaving the EU to get full control over our borders, nobody is going to tell us what to do.
Kate Hoey tells the EU to stop messing about, don't be putting any borders up in Ireland.
Can you believe the hypocrisy and double standards of this woman.we are now putting borders up but telling other countries to tear down their borders to solve the problems we created ourselves.
Leave supporters will swallow it though, another bit of dirt to throw at the EU,

[Libertine]

@Scientists4EU

Today we find out which European city has won the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

But what a loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London. Thanks to #Brexit.

[classycarra]

@Scientists4EU

Today we find out which European city has won the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

But what a loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London. Thanks to #Brexit.

Banking Authority the day after too, which apparently looks like it's off to Frankfurt. Would assume that would kick off a swift exodus there

[oldfordie]

Thought this would be sorted in 2nd round of talks, seems not.
Project fear turning to realty.

Brexit: UK banks will lose 'passporting rights' after Britain leaves EU, Brussels says
'Brexit means Brexit, everywhere,' Michel Barnier says

Thousands of British financial institutions rely on the rules Thomson Reuters
British banks will lose "passporting rights" to do business in the European Union after Brexit, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator has said.
Speaking in Brussels on Monday Michel Barnier said that "Brexit means Brexit, everywhere" and that there could be no opt-ins to parts of the single market for certain industries.
“The legal consequence of Brexit is that the UK financial service providers lose their EU passport. This passport allows them to offer their services to a market of 500 million consumers and 22 million businesses."
The pronouncement is bad news for the City, where over 5,400 British firms rely on passporting rights to bring in £9 billion in revenue every year to Britain. The BBA has said the loss of passporting would be “disruptive, costly and time-consuming”.
It also comes the same day as the EU announces where it will relocating the European Banking Authority, an EU agency currently based in London, after Brexit.
“On financial services, UK voices suggest that Brexit does not mean Brexit. Brexit means Brexit, everywhere,” Mr Barnier said in a major speech to a think-tank.
The chief negotiator said the EU might judge some UK rules as “equivalent” to EU passporting rights but ruled out the City of London having access to EU financial markets under the same passporting deal as now.
Mr Barnier told the audience at the Centre for European Reform: “Those who claim that the UK should pick parts of the single market must stop this contradiction. The single market is a package, with four indivisible freedoms, common rules, institutions, and enforcement structures
“The UK knows these rules very well, like the back of its hand. It has contributed to defining them over the last 44 years with a certain degree of influence. We took note of the UK decisions to end free movement of people and this means clearly that the UK will lose the benefits of the single market.
“This is a legal reality; the EU does not want to punish, it simply draws the logical consequence of the UK decision to take back control.”

As well as ruling out a carve-out for the financial sector, Mr Barnier appeared to suggest there could be no special deal for the UK's car manufacturers to stay in the single market, as proposed by industry bodies.

In the same speech the senior EU official also expressed disappointment at what he suggested as a fixation in some British circles on "no deal" being a viable option for the UK
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-passporting-rights-banks-financial-services-michel-barnier-speech-talks-david-davis-a8064836.html

[PaulF]

Maybe Theresa is playing a blinder, she's making brexit such an utter clusterfuck there's no option but to abandon it.