Topic: Goals and Playing to Par

[ShayGuevara]

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=317504.msg13784797#msg13784797

FF to 20 minute mark

Cheers mate, just about to pop out will have a look shortly.

[Timbo's Goals]

I'm reading the thread now. I was very clear. When you lot were saying "it's impossible, top four is done", all I said was "it's mathematically possible, and if we win our 6-pointers, we're in with a chance". In fact, here is an exchange between the two of us:

Your response:

Now, you can pull your pudding all you want thinking you've "got one over on old PoP", but facts are facts. The first one is that I only ever said we were in with a chance. We still are. Secondly, this thread is not actually my opinion on where we will finish, if you actually read it. It's to show that we were in a difficult spot for most of the season, and that to make top four would be unlikely most years. Show me a post after January where I said, in all seriousness, "Hey everyone, we're DEFINITELY making top four!" You won't find one. But I'll let you try.

There are times - only very occasionally I'm sure - when a perfect form of poetic justice occurs on footy forums. I'd wager this is one such occasion.

 

[Trendisnotdestiny]

I'd add Higuaín &  Lacazette to that list. The former with tonnes of experience having scored 10+ goals in La Liga/Serie A for the past 7 years. Still only 27.

Sounds good to me mate... If we go for Higuain, then we should should his apprentice Vietto ----

Dark horse might be a Firmino (but he is more of an attacking mid - removed striker).

[Trendisnotdestiny]

Cheers mate, just about to pop out will have a look shortly.

SG -  It might be the most interesting informational source about this season that I have seen. 

SerbianScouser scores on this.   

[Penfold78]

 
Pop, if we finished 4th this season with Sturridge or Balo on 20 goals, we would be having be having a postmortem about why we didn't finish higher, or further in the CL. We would be debating either our next defensive signing, goalkeeper or replacement central midfielders, with some other interesting correlations being wheeled out. You know that's true!

 So is the essence of your argument that a 20 goal striker is the first step in overhauling our squad, and if so how/when do we address the lack of depth and proven talent in other positions?

[PhaseOfPlay]

Pop, if we finished 4th this season with Sturridge or Balo on 20 goals, we would be having be having a postmortem about why we didn't finish higher, or further in the CL. We would be debating either our next defensive signing, goalkeeper or replacement central midfielders, with some other interesting correlations being wheeled out. You know that's true!

 So is the essence of your argument that a 20 goal striker is the first step in overhauling our squad, and if so how/when do we address the lack of depth and proven talent in other positions?

This thread isn't about that. It's about how important goalscorers are to teams. And how there is a correlation between the performance of our top goalscorer and the goals they get, and our league position, because goals win games.

But as it happens, I've said before how a team should be built to challenge for a league (or finish high up) - goalscorers first, then keeper and defenders, then central mids, then wide areas, then bench. After that, you should be evaluating for your weakest links every season, and replacing them

[Penfold78]

This thread isn't about that. It's about how important goalscorers are to teams. And how there is a correlation between the performance of our top goalscorer and the goals they get, and our league position, because goals win games.

But as it happens, I've said before how a team should be built to challenge for a league (or finish high up) - goalscorers first, then keeper and defenders, then central mids, then wide areas, then bench. After that, you should be evaluating for your weakest links every season, and replacing them

Understood.

[Timbo's Goals]

 So is the essence of your argument that a 20 goal striker is the first step in overhauling our squad, and if so how/when do we address the lack of depth and proven talent in other positions?

If I may...

...No the essence of his argument is that our total dependency upon two young attacking players to provide the entirety of our attacking momentum across an entire season translates into the fact that anything above a bottom four place constitutes quite a remarkable achievement by the manager and the team.

Of course, there are many within the thread who believe that the reason why Rodgers had to end up relying upon the two young lads to provide his entire attacking armoury was down to Rodgers himself and as such he is to blame for everything and should be hung, drawn and quartered.

Thankfully, there are still enough Reds with a modicum of a brain and perspective to realise that the real reason Rodgers and the team - and us poor sods - were left in such a ridiculously barren and bereft position was actually down to the wanton stupidity and dereliction of duty towards the team, Rodgers and us poor sods by those controlling the purse strings of the club and the cronies they have put in charge of procurement.

In other words two decent attackers of the right calibre and we'd have probably carried on from where we finished last season and won the league. As it has transpired apart from a decent run just after Christmas when Sterling and Coutinho were playing out of their skins we have looked for almost the entire season what we actually are - a team without an attack.

I think that about covers it.

 

[petercormack]

Is it just about the lack of a number 9. I think there is more to it than that. I am concerned that even with Sanchez in our team we would see that BRs possession football just does not work. We are too slow in our build up, we don't press and don't want to counter quickly or counter at all

Is this the death by footy we are seeing? Certainly death by boredom

The games about scoring and today against West Brom we could have 100% possession and still look unlikely to score

Worrying that Rodgers persists with this style of play after seeing it fail again and again and also after seeing the pressing/ counter attacking worked so well

[PhaseOfPlay]

Is it just about the lack of a number 9. I think there is more to it than that. I am concerned that even with Sanchez in our team we would see that BRs possession football just does not work. We are too slow in our build up, we don't press and don't want to counter quickly or counter at all

Is this the death by footy we are seeing? Certainly death by boredom

The games about scoring and today against West Brom we could have 100% possession and still look unlikely to score

Worrying that Rodgers persists with this style of play after seeing it fail again and again and also after seeing the pressing/ counter attacking worked so well

It's all about goalscorers. Players who WANT to be 1v1 with the keeper as often as possible. Too many of ours pull wide or drop off.

[Michel]

Top 4 is done and dusted.R.I.P.

[ShayGuevara]

It's all about goalscorers. Players who WANT to be 1v1 with the keeper as often as possible. Too many of ours pull wide or drop off.

Mario just wants to drop deep all the time. Its a shame Sturridge has been injured so much as the could of struck a partnership with mario sitting deeper linking play.

After the season he's had though I'd be surprised if he wasn't off in the summer, as a lone striker he offers very little with how we play.

Our new signing has to be in the Suarez to Sturridge mould. Pacey, works hard and natural finisher. Mario debatably ticks none of those boxes. I'm not convinced players like Higuain or Cavani do either, will be interesting to see who we target and if we can bring in one of our first choices.

[MerseyParadise]

you have said it POP time an time again , sometimes principles have to be abandonded and percentage balls slung in over an over , causing desperate defending are whats needed . If Rogers gets the chop (and I hope he doesn't) he will have hung himself with dogma

[sinnermichael]

If ever a picture summed it up. Spot the striker.

[tubby]

Found one.

[petercormack]

It's all about goalscorers. Players who WANT to be 1v1 with the keeper as often as possible. Too many of ours pull wide or drop off.

what about the lack of pressing and counter attacking

Isn't that some thing to do with it

I am not a fan of Rodgers possession football and lack of a number 9 is one important part but is not the only thing for me

Rafa also struggled against the likes of WBA

[PhaseOfPlay]

what about the lack of pressing and counter attacking

Isn't that some thing to do with it

I am not a fan of Rodgers possession football and lack of a number 9 is one important part but is not the only thing for me

Rafa also struggled against the likes of WBA

I'm not talking about strikers or positions. I'm only talking about goalscorers.

[groove]

In a single game of football what is the aim? To score more goals than you concede. In the long term you're attempting to keep the gap between the average goals scored per game and your average goals conceded per game as wide as possible. As variance (luck, form, injuries, bounce of the ball, whatever randomness) evens out in the long term the teams that can keep that gap the widest will win the most games. Whether by keeping your average goals scored per game high or conceded low or some balance. Just get that gap as wide as you can. A crazy 5-2 win might yield the same number of points as a solid 2-0 win over the same opposition, and the narrative might be that 2-0 is the result of champions or something equally ridiculous, but the former result is an indicator to me that you are more likely to win games in the future in our sample size of one (the only information we have).

We did that last season by keeping our average goals scored per game so massive that our average goals conceded could not possibly get close enough to it for us not to win the majority of our games. That was our strategy in the end. And a solid one. We had two of the best three strikers in the league and two of the the best young attacking players in the league. A rich vein of offensive talent that we had to take advantage of by deploying an equally offensive system. I don't really see our system last year as carefree or "mad" as the Anfield Wrap lot love to call it. I saw it as the logical choice. You set out to best serve the area where we have our biggest edge over the opposition: attacking talent.

I gave Rodgers credit for it at the time. He sees football the same way I do. He's done what every top manager should do. Take what edge he thinks his players have over the opposition and rag on it. Push it as hard as possible. Play four up front if you have the four best strikers in the league. I'd bet he might.

Then the first few months of this season happened.

What happens when you take that attacking talent away? When you lose that edge that you've been taking advantage of? When the thing that had been pushing your average goals scored per game so high that defending almost didn't matter? Well we saw what happened... because we continued to try and play the same way, the same team, for far too long and lost a lot. Lucas sitting on the bench for so long being the biggest no-no that we saw. The biggest indicator to me that Rodgers's problem solving abilities sometimes move at glacial pace. That what had worked before must work now, still, even though the resources at your disposal have changed.

And then, when you finally do move to a system that lowers your goals conceded per game to a rate where you will start to win a few more games, and 50% of your attacking talent returns, do you then still continue to play the same way? Or has the resources at your disposal changing again cause you to reevaluate the way you balance attack and defence? Do you shift the balance back towards taking advantage of that talent?

No, you leave that talent isolated and frustrated in attack and then say to the press that you don't expect to see the best of that player until next season. What kind of strategy is this?

I sympathise with regards to this summer's transfer dealings. Nobody knows whose buy was whose. What went on. How much control Rodgers had. I sympathise with the lack of a top, top striker being consistently available all season. But what I don't sympathise with is the idea that there was nothing he could have done. That we should accept being in the Spurs and Southampton group. And not in amongst the top 4 group. That this is par.

[petercormack]

I'm not talking about strikers or positions. I'm only talking about goalscorers.

I know we do not have goalscorers and that a decent number 9 sets the tone for the rest of the team and I also know you know more about football than I do. However let's just see how far a decent number 9 gets us playing slow possession football

If Rodgers continues with his death by football, I'll gladly have this conversation again at this time next season when I think unfortunately he will fail again to meet his targets

[MerseyParadise]

In a game like today fuck no 9s or no10s or people who like to be 1 v 1 , flood the fucking box with lumps and pump it over an over again. its not a principle that would be advocated across a season but today for us was the same as a team chasing the league needing a win on the last day.


Ask yourself this... if it came to it on the last day of the league , needing to win. Would rogers throw the keeper up from a corner and pump it over an over again? or would he carry on with death by football?

[PhaseOfPlay]

I know we do not have goalscorers and that a decent number 9 sets the tone for the rest of the team and I also know you know more about football than I do. However let's just see how far a decent number 9 gets us playing slow possession football

If Rodgers continues with his death by football, I'll gladly have this conversation again at this time next season when I think unfortunately he will fail again to meet his targets

He probably won't be here that long, so it's all academic.

[petercormack]

Yes we could have done that in the last 5 or 10 min but for the rest of the game we could have played it around much quicker than we did. We created hardly anything of note from open play

I have a watched other sides in my time lose their key goalscorer but still create chances. Where today we're the runners from midfield arriving late into box? That for me is down to the style of play. That is on Rodgers

Culturally in our league we prefer a quicker game and struggle to lift ourselves when the tempo is slow and we need the win

[Sangria]

I'm not encouraged by the talk of 16m for Illarramendi. That's a fair chunk of our transfer funds for someone who averages a goal in the top tier every 50 games.

[ShayGuevara]

I'm not encouraged by the talk of 16m for Illarramendi. That's a fair chunk of our transfer funds for someone who averages a goal in the top tier every 50 games.

Players in his position don't tend to score a lot of goals. Excellent passer and strong defensively though, would be an Improvement on Gerrard and Lucas IMO.

[Clint Eastwood]

Poor system for attacking --> no goals. Simple as that. This 3-4-3 was a good little short-term solution, but it needs binning. It's brought the best out of Can, Skrtel, Lucas and even Lovren, but none of our other players are thriving, in fact it's harming their performance.

The wing-backs - Pointless. There is no point of them being on the field. Can any of them cross? No. Can any of them beat a man? Only Ibe. Are any of them particularly good defenders? No. Their only job is to receive the ball, then pass it back to Skrtel.

Players like Henderson, Sterling, Sturridge, Lallana, Coutinho thrive when they have room, and freedom to launch an attack, but 3-4-3 removes all of their freedom, and since opposition teams realised Coutinho was our only creative player, he's been marked out of most games. It seems like the majority of our matches when we play 3-4-3 just descend into our attackers running at a wall of defenders and getting knocked back. It removes Sturridge's licence to come short and run 1v1 against defenders and takes him out of the game. We're relying on defensive mistakes or luck to find an opening and it's not a good strategy. It's just so rigid. and one-dimensional, this system. I'm pretty sure that in our last 5 or so games, Brendan's realised it's not been working and has switched to a back four... why does he persist with it?

Absolutely hate this formation, it's no surprise that we aren't scoring goals.

[wemmick]

If ever a picture summed it up. Spot the striker.

Although, to be fair, I'm not sure what one correctly positioned striker would do against 7 defenders.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Although, to be fair, I'm not sure what one correctly positioned striker would do against 7 defenders.

Made a blindside run on the left back, perhaps?

[PhaseOfPlay]

Poor system for attacking --> no goals. Simple as that. This 3-4-3 was a good little short-term solution, but it needs binning. It's brought the best out of Can, Skrtel, Lucas and even Lovren, but none of our other players are thriving, in fact it's harming their performance.

The wing-backs - Pointless. There is no point of them being on the field. Can any of them cross? No. Can any of them beat a man? Only Ibe. Are any of them particularly good defenders? No. Their only job is to receive the ball, then pass it back to Skrtel.

Players like Henderson, Sterling, Sturridge, Lallana, Coutinho thrive when they have room, and freedom to launch an attack, but 3-4-3 removes all of their freedom, and since opposition teams realised Coutinho was our only creative player, he's been marked out of most games. It seems like the majority of our matches when we play 3-4-3 just descend into our attackers running at a wall of defenders and getting knocked back. It removes Sturridge's licence to come short and run 1v1 against defenders and takes him out of the game. We're relying on defensive mistakes or luck to find an opening and it's not a good strategy. It's just so rigid. and one-dimensional, this system. I'm pretty sure that in our last 5 or so games, Brendan's realised it's not been working and has switched to a back four... why does he persist with it?

Absolutely hate this formation, it's no surprise that we aren't scoring goals.

We played 4-3-3 today.

[Clint Eastwood]

We played 4-3-3 today.

I could have sworn it was a 3-4-3. Looked like it to me anyway.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I could have sworn it was a 3-4-3. Looked like it to me anyway.

It was a really weird one, CE. We started off in a clear 4-3-3, Gerrard holding, Henderson/Coutinho on the sides, Can and Johnson fullbacks, Sterling/Ibe wingers, and Balotelli up front.

In the second half we switched to a weird 2-3-5, with Lovren/Skrtel defending, Can, Johnson and Gerrard like three DM's, and then 5 forwards almost (although none of them seemed to want to be a central forward). We might have gone to a three very late on - I was too frustrated at how we had nobody in the box to notice too much - but for the most part we played with two central defenders and Gerrard dropping in between

[devilfysh]

All arguing  about what formation we have. And you think the players have a clue what to do

[Sangria]

It was a really weird one, CE. We started off in a clear 4-3-3, Gerrard holding, Henderson/Coutinho on the sides, Can and Johnson fullbacks, Sterling/Ibe wingers, and Balotelli up front.

In the second half we switched to a weird 2-3-5, with Lovren/Skrtel defending, Can, Johnson and Gerrard like three DM's, and then 5 forwards almost (although none of them seemed to want to be a central forward). We might have gone to a three very late on - I was too frustrated at how we had nobody in the box to notice too much - but for the most part we played with two central defenders and Gerrard dropping in between

Nothing weird about playing with 2 full backs, 3 halves, and 5 forwards.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Nothing weird about playing with 2 full backs, 3 halves, and 5 forwards.

[Max_powers]

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/rodgers-liverpool-target-striker-summer-9118919

Rodgers saying something along this line. I think today summed up our problems.

[killer-heels]

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/rodgers-liverpool-target-striker-summer-9118919

Rodgers saying something along this line. I think today summed up our problems.

Hopefully it also means he has been assured that he will get another season.

Regardless though we need to get some wins otherwise the fans will really be against him.

[petercormack]

It was a really weird one, CE. We started off in a clear 4-3-3, Gerrard holding, Henderson/Coutinho on the sides, Can and Johnson fullbacks, Sterling/Ibe wingers, and Balotelli up front.

In the second half we switched to a weird 2-3-5, with Lovren/Skrtel defending, Can, Johnson and Gerrard like three DM's, and then 5 forwards almost (although none of them seemed to want to be a central forward). We might have gone to a three very late on - I was too frustrated at how we had nobody in the box to notice too much - but for the most part we played with two central defenders and Gerrard dropping in between

Echo described it as follows:
Can's defence-midfield hybrid shows Rodgers doesn't care for criticism
Let it never be said Brendan Rodgers is deterred by criticism. After accusations of too much and too often at Wembley, the Hawthorns saw another tweak to the system – and another deviation from the norm. Though the formation was a recognisable one – a 4-3-3 reminiscent of the one which saw off Everton and Arsenal at Anfield last season – it rarely stayed like that.

Central to that was Emre Can. He was, in an orthodox system, the right back. There he began the game, but was soon stepping into midfield. Most right backs are instructed to move forward in a straight line, offering the man in front an outlet.

Not Can. A central midfielder in the future, supposedly, it was there he moved into when Liverpool had position, making diagonal runs towards goal. In his absence, Steven Gerrard would push back – often as the deepest outfield player in red – with Martin Skrtel shifting over, making a back three.

A curious adjustment. It contributed to plenty of possession but didn't do much else. An experiment not wholly failed, and one that could be used again. A game with so little to speak of isn't the best platform to make a judgement.http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/west-brom-0-0-liverpool-scoring-9119175

[Clint Eastwood]

It was a really weird one, CE. We started off in a clear 4-3-3, Gerrard holding, Henderson/Coutinho on the sides, Can and Johnson fullbacks, Sterling/Ibe wingers, and Balotelli up front.

In the second half we switched to a weird 2-3-5, with Lovren/Skrtel defending, Can, Johnson and Gerrard like three DM's, and then 5 forwards almost (although none of them seemed to want to be a central forward). We might have gone to a three very late on - I was too frustrated at how we had nobody in the box to notice too much - but for the most part we played with two central defenders and Gerrard dropping in between

Indeed. In regards to the CF problem, it seems to me that sometimes Balotelli drifts a bit deep because he's not confident in getting any sort of service when he's in a proper CF position. No one can seem to cross, and it's not particularly our style to do so, so he's going to drift on the edge of the box because he has a better chance of getting the ball there.

[LFCsupporter]

Indeed. In regards to the CF problem, it seems to me that sometimes Balotelli drifts a bit deep because he's not confident in getting any sort of service when he's in a proper CF position. No one can seem to cross, and it's not particularly our style to do so, so he's going to drift on the edge of the box because he has a better chance of getting the ball there.

He's not confident playing as a lone striker full stop.

[robgomm]

If ever a picture summed it up. Spot the striker.

About the most extreme example of this from today. Balotelli was on the left wing with Sterling. Ibe I think was hugging the touchline. No breaking run from midfield. It was highly frustrating.

[wemmick]

Made a blindside run on the left back, perhaps?

Of course.

But where is his support? One of the odd things to me about our striker situation, PoP, is how little they service they get sometimes. They are certainly average to below average goal scorers, but I can't believe how isolated they are at times. Even Sturridge when he returned from injury. Seems like the midfield and wingers just hang them out to dry.