What was the situation in terms of Xg and does that bare any relation to how we expect to perform in the future. For example, i think I read that last season City and Utd had pretty high Xg’s but that was not translating to results and wins. I recall numerous City and Utd games where they created but couldnt score and get a winner.
Obviously long term that may have benefitted them this year but it didnt really happen this year. I know some stats people claim that we should improve, but what are the chances that we dont this season?
There was an article (I think by Ted Knutson) which discussed some of the drawbacks of xG/xGA and included some (fairly common sense) objections by a coach. xG/xGA (or the precise formula being discussed in that article, at least) rely more or less only on the location, not the wider context (e.g. primarily position of defenders).
So, you see from our xGA/actual GA in that Arpil/May period, our
actual goals against dropped more than our xGA. Similarly, teams dominating games against opponents setup defensively may underperform their xG because it is assuming an
average defence, not one packing the box with pesky defenders getting in the way of shots.