Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14  (Read 212570 times)

Offline Prof

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The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« on: June 20, 2013, 12:19:00 AM »
The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14

This is a continuation of the last two APLT threads which ran over the last two seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top six teams (and Everton) indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.


Unlike the last two seasons, we have a favourable start to the season, with only one par-1 in the first 9 games.  This means we don't have any margin for error.

The trickiest part of the season looks like the run from 14th - 28th December, playing away at Spurs, Man City and Chelsea in the space of four fixtures and 14 days.  We also have a tricky final quarter, with Spurs, Man City and Chelsea all visiting us at Anfield, with no room for slip ups in the season climax.

Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.


 
The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.
« Last Edit: February 9, 2014, 10:39:45 PM by Prof »

Offline SweetSilverSevens

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2013, 12:25:58 AM »
Yay!!  :scarf

I was actually waiting for this after the fixtures came out. Especially to have a clearer overall picture of when other teams have difficult periods in comparison to ours. Good job.... and looking forward to following it this upcoming season!  :)


PS: I know it sounds a bit pedantic, but when you have time, can you place the Arsenal/Spurs column alongside Liverpool's so we can compare with our direct rivals for CL football.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 12:35:01 AM by SweetSilverSevens »

Offline riismeister

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2013, 12:27:41 AM »
Hopefully we'll do well enough to keep this updated every week this season.

Great work Prof, always appreciated these threads.
We don't need to protect ourselves from injuries, we need a new starting cb as lovren is not good enough over a season, his time here has proven that. To think that we could win the title with him as a starting cb is laughable in my opinion.

Offline Zeb

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2013, 12:31:36 AM »
Bookmarked already for another season. Thanks Prof; one of those threads where even if you don't post much, you genuinely appreciate the effort in maintaining the table as well as the discussion which goes on.
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Offline Hymer Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2013, 01:06:40 AM »
Thanks Prof nice to see this thread again for what is looking like a very interesting season ahead
This Klopp fella, hes not bad is he?

Offline Kop10

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2013, 01:10:24 AM »
Nice to see this.

Thanks.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2013, 02:14:40 AM »
Hopefully it makes better reading than last year :) thanks for this, looking forward to following this seasons progress with it.

Offline Gifted Right Foot

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2013, 02:20:37 AM »
Nice to see this again.  Thanks Prof.

Offline DanA

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2013, 02:47:03 AM »
25 points out of a possible 27 in our first nine games. That'd be an amazing start, I think I'd be pretty happy if we could get 21/27 which would put us just above the 70 point line.
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Offline slimbo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2013, 03:09:11 AM »
Sorry to ask this but I'm trying to get my head around the Par 1.

Win at home means Par so no movement
Loss at home means drop 3 points?
Draw at home means drop 2 pts?
Win away against 7 easiest teams means Par so no movement
Draw Away against other teams means Par so no movement
Lose away against other teams means drop 1 pt?

Is this correct? Have I missed anything?


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2013, 03:17:55 AM »
Nice one Prof mate.
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Offline edmundljs

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2013, 04:03:55 AM »
Thanks Prof! This is the thread when I enjoy most after an away win... :P

Offline DanA

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2013, 04:14:00 AM »
Sorry to ask this but I'm trying to get my head around the Par 1.

Win at home means Par so no movement
Loss at home means drop 3 points?
Draw at home means drop 2 pts?
Win away against 7 easiest teams means Par so no movement
Draw Away against other teams means Par so no movement
Lose away against other teams means drop 1 pt?

Is this correct? Have I missed anything?

There are nine relevant scenarios so three are missing
1. Win at home (par)
2. Draw at home (-2 on par)
3. Lose at home (-3 on par)

4. Win against easy teams away (par)
5. Draw against easy teams away (-2 on par)
6. Lose against easy teams away (-3 on par)


7. Win against tough teams away (+2 on Par)
8. Draw against tough teams away (par)
9. Lose against tough teams away (-1 on par)
« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 04:21:53 AM by DanA »
Quote from: hinesy
He hadn't played as if he was on fire, more the slight breeze cutting across New Brighton on a summer's day than El Nino, the force of nature.

Offline DyingAtheist

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2013, 07:57:55 AM »
Bookmarked, will be interesting as always I'm sure!

Offline flashman

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2013, 08:12:51 AM »
Looking forward to an excellent thread as always, thanks prof.

Offline Jellies

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The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2013, 08:59:15 AM »
According to this we can still get fourth. Get in!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2013, 10:53:36 AM »
According to this we can still get fourth. Get in!

Are we not currently on course for a 90 point season?! ;D

Always enjoy reading this, thanks for your effort. Over thelast 15 games of last season Arsenal showed some serious title winning form. I wonder what the best odds on them are this year.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2013, 11:21:25 AM »
Are we not currently on course for a 90 point season?! ;D

Always enjoy reading this, thanks for your effort. Over thelast 15 games of last season Arsenal showed some serious title winning form. I wonder what the best odds on them are this year.

They do seem to finish strongly.  Look at the previous year aswell.

Offline helmboy_nige

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2013, 11:34:32 AM »
Awesome.  Love this stuff... although it does depress me as we start to slip further below the 90 point line!

Offline Blinis

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2013, 01:04:29 PM »
That's great Prof! As during the last two seasons, I'll keep an eye on this topic, always very informative.

Offline slimbo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2013, 01:32:14 PM »
There are nine relevant scenarios so three are missing
1. Win at home (par)
2. Draw at home (-2 on par)
3. Lose at home (-3 on par)

4. Win against easy teams away (par)
5. Draw against easy teams away (-2 on par)
6. Lose against easy teams away (-3 on par)


7. Win against tough teams away (+2 on Par)
8. Draw against tough teams away (par)
9. Lose against tough teams away (-1 on par)

Cheers

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2013, 10:31:11 PM »
PS: I know it sounds a bit pedantic, but when you have time, can you place the Arsenal/Spurs column alongside Liverpool's so we can compare with our direct rivals for CL football.
Just for you...


Offline paddysour

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2013, 01:19:03 PM »
See some people talking in last years topic and asking for this

Offline The Last Known Survivor

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2013, 04:08:58 PM »
one of my favourite threads, cheers prof. :)

Offline Cream147

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2013, 08:17:46 PM »
Unlike last season, we get to enjoy at least one game on the par line.

Offline rednationals

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #25 on: August 19, 2013, 01:46:43 AM »
it would seem to me that playing the 13th best team away would be easier than playing the champions at home.  What was the league's score against par in these two fixtures last year?

Offline TitanTrigger

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2013, 02:44:23 AM »
I know it goes against the rules and the objectivity of the alternative premier league but I would suggest that Stoke be replaced with Southampton as one of the harder teams to play. During the offseason Southampton have invested heavily and Stoke have not, on betfair you can get Stoke at 65/18 to finish in the top 10 whereas Southampton are 18/19.

I understand and respect why the rules should be as objective as possible but can't help but feel that later on in the season people will be looking at the stoke away as an easy 2 points gained and Southampton away as 2 points which can be dropped very easy.

Offline Frizzo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2013, 03:27:06 AM »
I know it goes against the rules and the objectivity of the alternative premier league but I would suggest that Stoke be replaced with Southampton as one of the harder teams to play. During the offseason Southampton have invested heavily and Stoke have not, on betfair you can get Stoke at 65/18 to finish in the top 10 whereas Southampton are 18/19.

I understand and respect why the rules should be as objective as possible but can't help but feel that later on in the season people will be looking at the stoke away as an easy 2 points gained and Southampton away as 2 points which can be dropped very easy.

it would seem to me that playing the 13th best team away would be easier than playing the champions at home.  What was the league's score against par in these two fixtures last year?

The beauty of the system is it's simplicity, and that it remains equally simple every year.

If we start subjectively looking at every team, home and away, and deciding which games are par-1s and which are par-3s individually, the system will become needlessly complex.

Offline TitanTrigger

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2013, 03:36:21 AM »
The beauty of the system is it's simplicity, and that it remains equally simple every year.

If we start subjectively looking at every team, home and away, and deciding which games are par-1s and which are par-3s individually, the system will become needlessly complex.

I agree, but a similarly simple system would be to use betting odds for the coming season as this incorporates transfers which will obviously have a huge impact on how a team performs. Once the top teams are set in stone in the first few weeks and not changed thereafter I don't see a problem. I can see a problem with rating Stoke higher than Southampton as that is not reflective of the relative strengths of teams in the league this year.

Offline Frizzo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2013, 03:44:12 AM »
I agree, but a similarly simple system would be to use betting odds for the coming season as this incorporates transfers which will obviously have a huge impact on how a team performs. Once the top teams are set in stone in the first few weeks and not changed thereafter I don't see a problem. I can see a problem with rating Stoke higher than Southampton as that is not reflective of the relative strengths of teams in the league this year.

I agree, you could use betting odds, if that's how you choose to run your system. But which bookie do you choose? Do you just take an average across the top 10 bookmakers? What if two teams have identical odds? Do you flip a coin, or just choose who you think is better?

I agree that you could create a system to take all of these things into account. However, Prof has decided to do his system based on last year's table. It's your opinion that Southampton will be stronger than Stoke, just as the opposite is someone else's opinion.

Prof will tell you himself that the system isn't perfect, but it's still fantastic in the way it limits its imperfections while maintaining its simplicity.

Offline Red number seven

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #30 on: August 19, 2013, 03:48:28 AM »
I know it goes against the rules and the objectivity of the alternative premier league but I would suggest that Stoke be replaced with Southampton as one of the harder teams to play. During the offseason Southampton have invested heavily and Stoke have not, on betfair you can get Stoke at 65/18 to finish in the top 10 whereas Southampton are 18/19.

I understand and respect why the rules should be as objective as possible but can't help but feel that later on in the season people will be looking at the stoke away as an easy 2 points gained and Southampton away as 2 points which can be dropped very easy.
Whilst I don't disagree with your assessment of the relative merits of the two teams (I actually think Stoke could be in trouble this season) I really don't think you can just subjectively do that. After all, who's to say that the team that should be replacing Stoke shouldn't be Villa, for example, rather than Southampton. And are you really telling me that its just as easy to get 3 points at home to City or Chelsea as it is to get 3 points away at Palace?

You could create an incredibly complex set of predicted points with each match having a bespoke predicted points (eg 0.4 points at City, 1.2 points at home to Chelsea etc) and basing it on preseason betfair odds might be an effective way of doing it. It would be imperceptibly complex and way beyond the time, skill and inclination fo the vast majority to set up.

Nar, keep it simple and completely objective and transparent. It will largely balance out over a season.
"You just have to give them credit for not throwing in the towel" - Gennaro Gattuso, May, 2005

And then we'll get 4th as well and everyone in the whole world can do one.

Offline Frizzo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #31 on: August 19, 2013, 03:53:27 AM »
Whilst I don't disagree with your assessment of the relative merits of the two teams (I actually think Stoke could be in trouble this season) I really don't think you can just subjectively do that. After all, who's to say that the team that should be replacing Stoke shouldn't be Villa, for example, rather than Southampton. And are you really telling me that its just as easy to get 3 points at home to City or Chelsea as it is to get 3 points away at Palace?

You could create an incredibly complex set of predicted points with each match having a bespoke predicted points (eg 0.4 points at City, 1.2 points at home to Chelsea etc) and basing it on preseason betfair odds might be an effective way of doing it. It would be imperceptibly complex and way beyond the time, skill and inclination fo the vast majority to set up.

Nar, keep it simple and completely objective and transparent. It will largely balance out over a season.

In fact, by the time all 20 teams have played 38 games, it will have completely balanced out :D

Offline TitanTrigger

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #32 on: August 19, 2013, 03:53:37 AM »
I agree, you could use betting odds, if that's how you choose to run your system. But which bookie do you choose? Do you just take an average across the top 10 bookmakers? What if two teams have identical odds? Do you flip a coin, or just choose who you think is better?

I agree that you could create a system to take all of these things into account. However, Prof has decided to do his system based on last year's table. It's your opinion that Southampton will be stronger than Stoke, just as the opposite is someone else's opinion.

Prof will tell you himself that the system isn't perfect, but it's still fantastic in the way it limits its imperfections while maintaining its simplicity.

I'm not totally disagreeing with you, it's strength is it's simplicity and objectivity. However I think this can be obtained through betting odds from places like betfair, the odds there are the combined knowledge of thousands of people all putting their money where their mouth is and as such represent a consensus of opinion on where teams lie for the coming year.

What I would like to avoid is coming late in the year and thinking "ahhh but we've got that Southampton away coming which isn't really a 3 pointer" and "we've got an easy 1 point away coming up against West Brom".

Anyways I can see both sides of the argument, just my opinion.

Offline Frizzo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #33 on: August 19, 2013, 03:56:43 AM »
I'm not totally disagreeing with you, it's strength is it's simplicity and objectivity. However I think this can be obtained through betting odds from places like betfair, the odds there are the combined knowledge of thousands of people all putting their money where their mouth is and as such represent a consensus of opinion on where teams lie for the coming year.

What I would like to avoid is coming late in the year and thinking "ahhh but we've got that Southampton away coming which isn't really a 3 pointer" and "we've got an easy 1 point away coming up against West Brom".

Anyways I can see both sides of the argument, just my opinion.

Yeah, like you said, I don't think we're in disagreement. A system could be made to account for other factors. It just won't be Prof's system (unless of course he decides to change it, in which case more power to him!)

Offline Red number seven

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2013, 04:48:26 AM »
I'm not totally disagreeing with you, it's strength is it's simplicity and objectivity. However I think this can be obtained through betting odds from places like betfair, the odds there are the combined knowledge of thousands of people all putting their money where their mouth is and as such represent a consensus of opinion on where teams lie for the coming year.

What I would like to avoid is coming late in the year and thinking "ahhh but we've got that Southampton away coming which isn't really a 3 pointer" and "we've got an easy 1 point away coming up against West Brom".

Anyways I can see both sides of the argument, just my opinion.
Could always start the alternative alternative Premier league thread... ;)
"You just have to give them credit for not throwing in the towel" - Gennaro Gattuso, May, 2005

And then we'll get 4th as well and everyone in the whole world can do one.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2013, 10:33:00 PM »

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2013, 10:48:57 PM »
It looks like there was a good debate about the model last night.  Some good arguments across the board.  For what it's worth, here's some of my thoughts.

it would seem to me that playing the 13th best team away would be easier than playing the champions at home.  What was the league's score against par in these two fixtures last year?

The APLT is based on a model of what it takes to be champions.  It doesn't really matter how everyone else does against a particular team.

Last season, Man Utd won 16 and lost 3 at home.  They lost to Man City (2nd), Chelsea (3rd, although the league was decided by then) and Spurs (5th).  Ironically, they beat Chelsea and Man City away from home.

In the previous two seasons, the Champions won 18 and drew one.  in 11-12, Man City drew at home to Sunderland (13th) and 10-11 Man Utd drew at home to West Brom.

Winning home matches is the bread and butter for title winning teams.  In fact, the average number of home wins for the Champions over the last six years is 17, and there is no obvious pattern to predict where the points might be dropped.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #37 on: August 19, 2013, 11:01:23 PM »
I know it goes against the rules and the objectivity of the alternative premier league but I would suggest that Stoke be replaced with Southampton as one of the harder teams to play. During the offseason Southampton have invested heavily and Stoke have not, on betfair you can get Stoke at 65/18 to finish in the top 10 whereas Southampton are 18/19.

I understand and respect why the rules should be as objective as possible but can't help but feel that later on in the season people will be looking at the stoke away as an easy 2 points gained and Southampton away as 2 points which can be dropped very easy.

It's funny, because last season, Stoke were a par 3 team, and it was quite widely suggested that they should be a par 1.

Part of me thinks it would be quite nice to have par 2s for the teams in the 'grey area', as the difference between the pars for the team that finished 13th and the team that finished 14th is quite big, even though there was only one point between them.  In practice though, I wouldn't want an impossible par score (like 2 points), so I live with the big jump.

If you think of this model as it is intended, like a round of golf, there are holes which are par 4s, but you see as a good birdie chance, and holes which are par 4s which are difficult to par.  In the APLT, some par 1s are opportunities to do better than expected, and some par 3s are potential dangers.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #38 on: August 19, 2013, 11:10:52 PM »
What I would like to avoid is coming late in the year and thinking "ahhh but we've got that Southampton away coming which isn't really a 3 pointer" and "we've got an easy 1 point away coming up against West Brom".
I agree, but regardless of how you identify the pars, you'll have this issue.

What might be interesting is to create an index to represent the level of difficulty of achieving par in the remaining matches.  A bit like a stroke index in golf.  E.g. if you have four games left with home matches against teams 1 and 2, and away matches against teams 14 and 15, you'll have a high index score.  It wouldn't affect the table, but would indicate the level of challenge.

Although, if we did this for the normal league table, it would basically make the APLT redundant.  :D

Offline DyingAtheist

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
« Reply #39 on: August 19, 2013, 11:48:10 PM »
Except for United at home (which is probably a harder game than Swansea away, though I understand why the system is the way it is!) we really do have a fantastic fixture list for the opening of the season.
Then again... lots of opportunities to drop under par!